Corona Virus Updates Part 5

April 10 (GMT) 8681 new cases and 980 new deaths in the United Kingdom NOTE: UK Government: "Today’s figures for positive tests have been adjusted to include positive case results from swab testing for key workers and their households (pillar 2). These will be included in the daily figures from today, 10 April. If these results were excluded from the figures, as they have been previously, the daily increase in the number of people who tested positive would have been 5,195. Data on positive case results from swab testing for key workers and their households between 25 March and 8 April is available" [source] Worldometer will reallocate the additional increase over the preceding days from March 25 based on the historical table provided by the UK [source]

Worldometers

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Check the "Death Rate" Column, and the "UK" line and see where they meet.
I'll believe BNO before some random person on the Internet.

That is where I got my number from...

8,958 deaths divided by 73,758 confirmed cases equals 1.2% CFR.

That number is of course subject to adjustment as confirmed/unresolved cases change to either recovered of dead, but this is how you do the math.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Check the "Death Rate" Column, and the "UK" line and see where they meet.
I'll believe BNO before some random person on the Internet.

That is where I got my number from...

8,958 deaths divided by 73,758 confirmed cases equals 1.2% CFR.

That number is of course subject to adjustment as confirmed/unresolved cases change to either recovered of dead, but this is how you do the math.

That’s 12%, not 1.2.

8,598/73,758 = .1214
When expressed as a percentage, the decimal point moves to the right two columns/units. Thus the number is 12.14%

montana seems to have weathered the storm better then most score one for fly over country we have no had a death in over a week ,11 new cases (total of 365) and 194 of our cases are out of hospital

Montana total365 new cases +11 deaths 6 recovered 194

www.worldometers.info...


Wyoming still winning with zero deaths

Numbers update for Europe, Worldometers first :







www.worldometers.info...

BNO for Europe :






bnonews.com...

From French Live Feed :

- 19h45 : " American-Indian village placed under quarantine in French-Guyana. "

This Arawak Village of more than 50 inhabitants has 10-12 cases of Coronavirus, and a 13th is being considered 'more than likely' infected, after a first negative test, and awaiting further tests.

- 19h48 : " Italy extends lockdown to 3rd May "

- 19h53 : " Officially over 100,000 Deaths throughout the world due to COVID-19 (100,661) "

- 20h20 : "369 Confirmed cases in the French Armed Forces, 867 'declared' cases, and 3,800 'Possible and Probable' cases. " says Florence Parly, Minister for the Armed Forces.

I'm amazed that people don't understand percentages.

Saw a thing on the news...

4800 took a questionnaire, 1200 had symptoms of Corona, or 3.5%.

It's like, I'm not a math wizard and I flunked Algebra II my Junior year, but 1200 of 4800 isn't 3.5%, its 25%.

From BBC Live Feed :

- 21.14 (From the Summary) :

- Botswana :

Several MPs in Botswana have been moved to a supervised quarantine facility after they were caught in shopping in a supermarket. On Thursday, all parliamentarians were asked to quarantine in their homes for 14 days after a health worker who had been screening them for the coronavirus herself tested positive

- 21.21 : " Football Legend Kenny Dalglish tests positve for COVID-19 "

Liverpool and Scotland football legend Sir Kenny Dalglish has tested positive for coronavirus and is in hospital but showing no symptoms.

The 69-year-old was admitted to hospital on Wednesday for treatment of an infection and tested positive for Covid-19 after a routine test.

His family said in a statement "he looks forward to being home soon".

Wrong post

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
I'm in the UK and the death rate is running at close to 9% actually.

I just checked and it is now at 1.2%.

Your math sucks.

It's actually higher than the percentage I gave you. It;s now at close to 12%.

I'm doing the math based on cases... which is the correct way to do it.


Who's the one who sucks at math again??

From Guardian Live Feed :

- 7.25pm : " Apple and Google have announced an unprecedented collaboration to open up their mobile operating systems "

Apple and Google have announced an unprecedented collaboration to open up their mobile operating systems to allow for the creation of advanced contact-tracing apps, the two companies have announced.

In theory, such apps could help allow nations to lift their lockdowns earlier, by letting authorities much more readily identify new clusters of infection and help those who have been exposed to a person with Covid-19 self-isolate before they themselves become infectious.

They would work by using the bluetooth technology in mobile phones to keep track of every other phone a person comes into close contact with over the course of a day; if that person later finds they have Covid-19, they can use the same system to alert all those people, dating back to before they would have become infectious.

Similar apps have already been trialled in nations including Singapore, but they have been held back by a combination of reduced uptake – the Singaporean app is used by 12 percept of the city, limiting its effectiveness – and difficulties in working around privacy protections built into the iOS and Android operating systems. It is those limits that Apple and Google will be lifting, the companies announced today.

(Bolded bit by me - Privacy concerns abound)

- 8.15pm : " Turkey is imposing a two-day lockdown in 31 provinces, including Istanbul, Ankara and other major cities, its Interior Ministry says, adding that the curbs will begin at midnight (TRT) and end at the same time on Sunday. "

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Check the "Death Rate" Column, and the "UK" line and see where they meet.
I'll believe BNO before some random person on the Internet.

That is where I got my number from...

8,958 deaths divided by 73,758 confirmed cases equals 1.2% CFR.

That number is of course subject to adjustment as confirmed/unresolved cases change to either recovered of dead, but this is how you do the math.

I'm going to put it in simpler numbers so it is really obvious for percentage calculations since it isn't obvious to everyone how that is done.

Roughly 10 thousand (8,958) divided by roughly 100 thousand (73,758 -- really rough, but close enough). 10/100 = 10% that should tell you right away that 1.2% is way off, and actually 12% which is roughly 10%

I'm not doing this to be harsh. Just so people understand how to do rough calcs to check their math first.

Remember the hype about the pineal gland getting calcified from fluoride. It is true if you do get too much overall fluoride in your diet, lots of research shows that.

But read this....is this why they say we need all these vaccines these days?

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov...

You can tap on the pages below to get a full view of the text.

This is not the only legit article out there stating that the pineal gland is crucial for antigen immunity.
Who's idea was it to put fluoride in the water anyway, did pharmaceutical companies have a part in creating the program?

originally posted by: ShortBus
I'm amazed that people don't understand percentages.

Saw a thing on the news...

4800 took a questionnaire, 1200 had symptoms of Corona, or 3.5%.

It's like, I'm not a math wizard and I flunked Algebra II my Junior year, but 1200 of 4800 isn't 3.5%, its 25%.

This whole event has made it glaringly apparent how much trouble people have with math and even more so statistics. I feel fortunate to have a pretty solid grasp on both, but to be fair, most people rarely use them beyond a few times a year and never develop a perceptual understanding much less use them enough to have a clear rational understanding where it instantly conjures up some clear concept in your brain.

In a lot of ways, it's not their fault and if they had to use it regularly, it would be easy for them as it is others. There are plenty of concepts that I never really understood beyond plugging in numbers until I had to use them regularly and at least half of my work is data science.

I don't want to turn this into a philosophy on intelligence, but most people are far more capable than what they have learned. If you are out there mowing lawns, running heavy equipment, plumbing, electrical etc., you are doing a lot of complicated stuff intuitively in your head. I've been fortunate enough to have worked both sides, so I have a soft spot for not underestimating untrained intelligence.

---
Of note (not directed to you tanstaafl but a general COVID observation), the US CFR has gone back up to 3.71%. I'm not sure why it fell for a bit but it didn't last long. I haven't seen any discussion about the % going down in the "news". I assumed it would go back up as it has. We may wind up close to 4% again next week. Tuesdays seem to be a big day for the numbers to adjust from the weekend lag time. Plus Easter Sunday might make the numbers lag even more. I wonder if 2 weeks from Easter we will see a new spike.

***Edit to add that I refreshed the page and everything before posting. Did not see the above talk about %% so apologies for being redundant!! I removed redundant info

Stay well all....
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The correct way to calculate the death rate CFR can only be done at the end and is (deaths/(deaths+recovered)).

It's only ever going to be an estimation because you'll never know the true number of infections.

You can try and do it to get a rough idea during an outbreak but it's going to be wildly innacurate, and only as good as the numbers you have.

In the UK (and probably everywhere else) the numbers are pap.

For example yesterday the UK deaths was the recorded deaths in the last 24 hours plus the deaths that had now been recognised in the system which went back over a week.

In a weeks time there will be deaths added to the daily total that occured yesterday, but won't be associated with yesterday.

So they are meaningless.

What would be useful would be if the powers that be took all recorded deaths on any given day and retrospectively updated the previous days for the last 3 weeks with correct numbers.

Then you could do some more accurate maths, and could get a better idea of the growth curve of this thing.

Instead you have Sky TV showing projections based on growth lines based on the wrong numbers, which supposedly show it's slowing down and we've flattened the curve.

The truth is we don't know - those old numbers being added in might be making it look like it's growing faster, or like it's growing slower, but unless you know the real nmbers any assumptions and calculations you try to make are just wrong - end of story.

So the bottom line is - no one knows what's going on because the buraeucratic system is so archaic.

You'd think in the midst of a world changing, economy crashing catastrophy that someone, somewhere might be able to organise a proper counting system to help things along.

But apparently even this simple task is too much to ask for.

So Dr Fauci is saying that reopening the US may depend on the number of peoples antibodies to the virus. Meaning that after people get it then recover they should have some antibodies to the virus to help protect them from infection.
Seems like it means everyone may need to get the virus and recover in order to go back to work. In my mind this raises questions about reduced antibodies that people may have after recovery.


Fauci: Reopening U.S. Could Be Dependent On Mass Antibody Testing
White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci told MSNBC’s Brian Williams that mass antibody testing could be a key component to reopening the U.S. This method would provide data to determine how many people would likely be protected from COVID-19. Aired on 4/10/2020.