Corona Virus Updates Part 5

Annnnnndddd... Florida Man (well, Florida Governor) finally yields to pressure and issues stay at home mandate

Kinda late, dude, but better than never.

There’s a strange anomaly in the UK stats, I noticed it last week and I don’t understand it.

In Scotland approx 3.2% of those recorded as being infected die. But the wider UK figure (including Scotland) is just under 8.0%. The figures have been up and down by a few decimal points as each day passes. But that’s a big statistical difference.

Why would that be ?

To those outside UK -
UK only routinely tests those whose symptoms require hospital treatment. The less severe cases with only mild symptoms don’t get tested at present.

originally posted by: DAZ21
a reply to: DankyDSmythe

I don't think we'll see those sorts of numbers considering we'll see the numbers drop and stabilise like in Italy as we're in lockdown now, it's just a matter of time.

With a full lockdown you can expect numbers to slow down in about two weeks and start to fall in about three weeks. But with a rate of about 10% (it won't be around 20% for long and will drop), you can still expect about 1,5 million confirmed cases when things start to turn around and more than 2 million in total. But huge part of the USA doesn't have total lockdown as we have in Europe .... we won't know which approach is better for at least 3 months when we will draw a line. Everyone is just guessing while looking at the data we already have and when the new data arrives, we are all surprised because everytime this virus looks like it can outsmart us.

Most of the countries that already turned around had to put entire economies on life support from the government and central banks for at least three weeks and hope for a fast start when things get better. For now it was the only scenario that worked

a reply to: baburak

You're right, I think America is screwed too. If any civil unrest starts, my bet is that it'll start there somewhere. What with economy problems aswell.

Numbers update for Europe, now French Numbers are in :





www.worldometers.info...
bnonews.com...

Just for reference, this is how the "Nasal Swab" test is done :



Lets all pray they get the Blood tests available and in big numbers really, really quick.

Source : health.ucdavis.edu...

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Just for reference, this is how the "Nasal Swab" test is done :

Lets all pray they get the Blood tests available and in big numbers really, really quick.

Source : health.ucdavis.edu...

I have had a scope done to look at my throat a couple of times. They basically do the same thing, go in through the nose, and then down the throat.

It is very uncomfortable.

The NY numbers are hard to wrap my brain around, hard to imagine how something could spread so quickly! I have not heard an official explanation for it other than once Dr. Birx said either they had spread before they knew they did, or they have the transmission method wrong.

From Frenc h Live Feed at 20h32 :

Americans buy Masks ordered by France "On the Tarmac, in China.".

President of the 'Grand-Est' Region of France said "It's complicated, we have to fight 24 hours of every day".
"I have a small team thats working as fast/best as they can, to get these orders. And Yes, on the Tarmac, Americans pull out the cash, and pay 3-4x the amount for the order, there and then, so we really have to fight. I was very happy to see the plane land here yesterday evening" he added.

originally posted by: TheShippingForecast
There’s a strange anomaly in the UK stats, I noticed it last week and I don’t understand it.

In Scotland approx 3.2% of those recorded as being infected die. But the wider UK figure (including Scotland) is just under 8.0%. The figures have been up and down by a few decimal points as each day passes. But that’s a big statistical difference.

Why would that be ?

To those outside UK -
UK only routinely tests those whose symptoms require hospital treatment. The less severe cases with only mild symptoms don’t get tested at present.

I've been wondering if different areas have different strains of this virus. That could perhaps explain the difference in fatality rates.

Pennsylvania Governor Wolf has extended the 'stay at home' order to cover the entire state now. He had previously been adding counties as the case numbers increased.

a reply to: ValentineWiggin

The symptoms show in about 5,2 days average (for some up to 14 days but 97% develop in max 10 days) and person start to spread it around days before symptoms develop (if), so it's not that hard because you don't know who has it or if you have it.

a reply to: Mamana12
I think it's primarily testing policy and health care policy that creates the differences. Some countries or regions just test more people. Getting more positive results, resulting in lower fatality percentages; also allowing to better protect vulnerable groups from those who have now been detected as positive, usually health care workers in nursing homes and such. Just better containment all around when you know for certain where the virus is and can do contact tracing + search & contain testing. Or they take better care of their elderly and people with underlying conditions which other countries or regions deem to have too low a chance of survival to treat in a hospital or IC unit compared to other people; the latter reasoning causing a higher fatality rate if the deaths are counted at all (sometimes they are not tested and not counted and just die at home or in a nursing home, but not getting tested also spreads the disease faster again which ultimately causes more deaths that are counted, especially if you're thinking about a nursing home again).

You usually see a sharp turn upward in fatality rate once IC beds become more and more scarce. I'd say Scotland is taking better care of its people or has less issues to deal with than the rest of the UK. They may also use a testing policy that differs from the National policy like what's been happening in the North in the Netherlands, long story.

And of course, London has more international travel and is probably similar to Madrid in Spain as being the center of the outbreak.

originally posted by: Mamana12

originally posted by: TheShippingForecast
There’s a strange anomaly in the UK stats, I noticed it last week and I don’t understand it.

In Scotland approx 3.2% of those recorded as being infected die. But the wider UK figure (including Scotland) is just under 8.0%. The figures have been up and down by a few decimal points as each day passes. But that’s a big statistical difference.

Why would that be ?

To those outside UK -
UK only routinely tests those whose symptoms require hospital treatment. The less severe cases with only mild symptoms don’t get tested at present.

I've been wondering if different areas have different strains of this virus. That could perhaps explain the difference in fatality rates.

London would definitely have had more international travellers through Heathrow and Gatwick, than Scotland.

Another UK update.

If you are employed and will get the govt paying your wages (up to 80% to 2.5K per month) you need to be re-classified as a furloughed employee - the govt system for employers to assign workers as furloughed and to get their money to them will not be ready until end of April at the earliest.

How do they expect people to survive in the meantime?

If you try to ring to claim benefits (Universal Credit) the phones are continuously busy so you can;t make a claim. I tried it today.

Thank God my landlady is an angel - just spoke to her, she bought a number of houses when her dad died and left her a load of money - she said she isn't bothered if people don't pay her for a few months, she doesn't need the money.

That's going to save me £550 per month I don't currently have.

I think the govt should scrap all of these silly schemes that need systems building and simply pay anyone who pays tax (and is therefore working) a set amount per month right now.

Oh yeah - and the govts loans to small businesses - the banks are refusing to honour them - unless you agree to up to 30% interest, take out a personal liability agreement, and even put your house up as collateral.

Banks - always on the look out for me, me, me.

Winkers.

a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

Why dont America make their own? Supporting China who started this

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
Just for reference, this is how the "Nasal Swab" test is done :

Lets all pray they get the Blood tests available and in big numbers really, really quick.

Source : health.ucdavis.edu...

With you there MB.......ouch!

originally posted by: ValentineWiggin
The NY numbers are hard to wrap my brain around, hard to imagine how something could spread so quickly! I have not heard an official explanation for it other than once Dr. Birx said either they had spread before they knew they did, or they have the transmission method wrong.

In early and mid February, New York officials told citizens to ignore the warnings out of Health and Human Services about coronavirus.

By the time they realized what was happening, it was too late.

originally posted by: marceldp1
a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

Why dont America make their own? Supporting China who started this

I can understand the Urgency, and it was reported in another newspaper, that it was one plane of Masks, among many.
Most, if not all Eurpoean Nations, only pay on arrival, so if its bought with Cash before it leaves China, not much we can do about it.
One of Germany's Orders got "Lost" at the Airport in Kenya, they refused to pay.

The French "Special Operations" Teams are being used now to guard the Deliveries/Arrivals of Medical Gear at Airports.
Full Balaclavas, Machine Guns, the Works.

originally posted by: carewemust

originally posted by: ValentineWiggin
The NY numbers are hard to wrap my brain around, hard to imagine how something could spread so quickly! I have not heard an official explanation for it other than once Dr. Birx said either they had spread before they knew they did, or they have the transmission method wrong.

In early and mid February, New York officials told citizens to ignore the warnings out of Health and Human Services about coronavirus.

By the time they realized what was happening, it was too late.

Weren't they following guidelines by this Administration's CDC?

Of course they were.. Are you going to criticize the Trump administration as well?

Of course you won't (and that's why no one takes your one sided partisan comments seriously).

Can we stick with updates now?