Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: Jamie2018

originally posted by: DontTreadOnMe

Come on guys!!!! Take a breath!!!
and PLEASE read this!

This thread is for Corona Virus UPDATES ONLY!!!

...not debating and/or bickering

...not chit chat, SOAP BOX speeches, recipes, political trolling, class warfare, conspiracy theories, bigoted comments, medical advice, OFF TOPIC banter
ill-mannered remarks toward members or arguing....

Some NON-UPDATE threads here, feel free to join in any of these:
Diseases and Pandemics

 

Diseases and Pandemics:: Medical Disclaimer
This thread is NOT for discussion of alternative medical treatment of illnesses!!!

Members who continue to disrupt will face temporary posting bans. ATS will not allow the few to ruin it for everyone.



Go after the ball not the player.

Community Announcement re: Decorum


You are responsible for your own posts.....those who ignore that responsibility WILL face mod actions.



and, as always:

Do NOT reply to this post!!

Will I be banned

I think this may be my last post

We can only hope so.

Just as we hope a cure for cv is nigh.

a reply to: CthruU

OMG you are involved in "CHIT CHAT" you will also be banned.

Non perishables

Do we think we are still going to need them?

Shops seem full up with food atm in the UK.

Was just wondering what you guys thought about this?

Thanks.

President Trump asked Vladimir Putin for help with Covid-19 in the USA.

Russia is Sending a Plane Full of Medical Supplies: twitter.com...

Since this is not a politics thread, I won't say what a certain political group will accuse President Trump of.

originally posted by: Mamana12
A few pages back I asked whether a waste treatment plant such as the one in Laguna Beach would cause a greater degree of risk of catching the virus via aerosol in the surrounding area. The air quality around the waste treatment plant is an ongoing issue year round. Laguna Beach now has one of the highest per capita covid19 infection rates in the state. Coincidence?

Source: stunewslaguna.com...

Yes. Coincidence.

Orange County has a fairly active airport (been there many times) that has a lot of flights and is a substation for LAX. THAT is your source. It also has some colleges, is near beaches where folks were doing spring break, etc.

Waste treatment plants use a lot of chemicals to break down the sludge and make it safe. Viruses and bacteria don's survive those.

FInancial Times is still doing some great graphs, for those that are interested in Coronavirus Updates, to keep people actually informed :

Italy has turned the corner. New cases falling
• US? >100k *new cases this week*
• China squashed its outbreak, but as restrictions are lifted, cases rebound. Lockdowns don’t end overnight
• Japan looked like a success story, but cases now rising

twitter.com...

Here are rolling new weekly deaths by country:
• Deaths lag cases, but Italy close to turning the corner here too
• 1000s of new deaths each week in the US, and that weekly increase is accelerating. US still weeks from turning the corner

twitter.com...

From Frenc h Live Feed :

- 9.25 : China announces 1,367 asymptomatic cases of Coronavirus.
(China has apparently published this somewhere, the site doesn't give a link)

- 9.56 : Police and Military Police (Gendarmerie) Laboratories to help COVID-19 testing analysis to speed up results in France.

- 10.17 : Brittany company develop "ultra-fast" COVID-19 test from a drop of Blood.

twitter.com...
More detail (in French) Here

NG Biotech announces the launch of a fast test kit from a single drop of Blood.
It expects to have the first deliveries in the next 2-3 weeks, and to make 500,000 tests as soon as May.
It is an all-in-one single-use test, to find antibodies specific to COVID-19, to indicate if the patient is, or has, had contact with the virus.
The test uses an inbuilt 'pricker' to collect the blood, and then the test is rad like a pregnancy test, after about 15 minutes wait.
Elaborated in an emergency, these kits have been tested these past few days, in Hospitals in the Paris region, notably in the Hospital Bicêtre, or in the ER services of the Lariboisière Hospital in Paris.
The results about its reliability will be released very soon, says Milovan Stankov Pugès, Director-General of the Company.
While awaiting this publication, his company is already preparing to produce 500K tests in MAy, 800K in June, and 1 Million in July.
This test will not be available to the general public for the time being, it is reserved for Medical professionals to aquire and administer.

(My translation from the French)

Wuhan doctor who was among the first to alert other medics to the spread of coronavirus 'goes missing' amid fears she has been detained for speaking out

www.dailymail.co.uk...

A Wuhan doctor who was among the first to alert other medics to the spread of coronavirus has disappeared sparking concerns that she has been detained, reports suggest. Dr Ai Fen said she faced 'unprecedented, extremely harsh reprimanded' by officials at Wuhan Central Hospital after she shared a picture of a patient report labelled 'SARS coronavirus'. The image was widely circulated and made its way to whistle-blower Li Wenliang who raised the alarm about the bug, which has killed more than 41,000 people worldwide. Dr Li was reprimanded by authorities for 'illegally spreading untruthful information online'.

a reply to: Byrd

Waste treatment plants use a lot of chemicals to break down the sludge and make it safe. Viruses and bacteria don's survive those.

Actually, it is both aerobic and anaerobic bacteria that break down the waste. Very little chemical is used in the process, usually just chlorination of the water that is discharged back into the environment. Some places mandate that the water be dechlorinated after that, if it has been chlorinated.
EPA

Coronavirus warning for the middle-aged: 8% of infected people in their 50s will end up in hospital - while the figure is 4% over-40s

www.dailymail.co.uk...

Middle-aged people have a dramatically higher risk of needing hospital care or dying from COVID-19 than the young, a study suggests. An analysis of more than 70,000 cases of COVID-19, mostly in China, estimated that eight per cent of those in their fifties will be hospitalised. The figure is four per cent for patients in their 50s, but soars to 18 per cent for those in their 80s and above. Of all patients infected, even those with just mild symptoms, around 1.4 per cent will die, according to the study by Imperial College London involving scientific advisor to the Government, Professor Neil Ferguson. Those under 20 years old have less than a one per cent chance of death, which rises to almost eight per cent of those aged 80 years old and over. Analysis of the patients also showed those in their 50s have a 0.59 per cent chance of dying, while the rate was 0.16 per cent for those in their 40s. The findings, published in prestigious medical journal Lancet Infectious Diseases, are some of the most comprehensive to date.

a reply to: Mamana12

If they are the classic waste treatment plants , where the sludge is digested anaerobically, and the wastewater is aerated and digested aerobically, then the spray could easily drift downwind. In fact the place would be very toxic unless its a more modern system where the UV treats it when it comes in before the solids are separated.

Here's NY's updated numbers. Last night we had 75795 this morning we are at 75983, Johns Hopkins University has us at 76049:
www.worldometers.info...

a reply to: anonentity

there is no additional N19COVID threat from any correctly operating waste water treatment plan " blow off "

if there was - where are all the data on previous outbreaks from other pathogens ???

Well, anyway the street talk about Tokyo that I mentioned in threads a while back is taking place.

1. In Japan only about 35000 test have been taken
2. I haven't heard anything about the Japanese Military personal being infected (which is hard to believe ) I say that since I see the young recruits riding the train in their uniforms.
3. I'm not sure how they come up with this 35000 tested figure since I haven't seen any daily updates on it.
4. I live in a university hospital town with the newest addition made to the hospital. We are not even mentioning getting people tested here. And we have the only commercial airport (ana and jal ) planes flying out of Tokyo and flying here. I think it was 7 flights a day. And yet we only have 6 known cases of infections. Also spring break for the university students.
I'm going out on a limb here and say this town and the prefecture capital will be one of the hot spots in Japan.
Why isn't it now? I'll tell you why. (I'm not going to research this, but the 3 other chemical (international ) plants here in Japan, what are the case of infections in them cities? What I'm saying is this, once they start testing , this chemical plant is doomed and its the 4 largest in the country. They also make the pharmaceuticals that are use in all types of drugs.
5. Japan 'on the brink' as it struggles to hold back coronavirus.
6. My street talk now: All major cities in Japan will see on average of 1000 to 4 to 5000 thousand cases of this virus in a very short time and it will be like every 3 or 4 days.
7. The 37 to 42 day period is now about up. ( that is the asymptomatic stage of infection ) yes it is shorter, but all major outbreaks are within that time period. Ask yourself this: Marti Gras, Feb. 25 (keep in mind people came early ) Now is April first, so what is happening in New Orleans now. Its the same with Japan since the slow creeping up of cases before the cancellation of the Olympics. So in Feb. we start seeing cases, now you see the time period is at its peak.
8. TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan is struggling to hold the line against the coronavirus and is on the brink of crisis with medical experts particularly worried about preparations in Tokyo, officials said on Wednesday, raising the prospect of emergency lockdowns.

Here is the link for #8 : www.yahoo.com...

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
If you pay close attention, "the end of the pandemic is near," is only direct quote in the above excerpt, the bit regarding immunity is from the author of the article and their likely flawed understanding of what Levitt actually said.

Thanks jadedANDcynical, I'm glad to see someone else gets what's going on here. This is not an isolated incident. It's rather common that science writers' interpretations of what the scientists said are flawed, misleading, and sometimes just completely wrong.

So as you infer and as Phage has requested, direct quotes from the scientist are needed to know what the scientist really said.

There's an entire thread on ATS where the title of the thread is a misunderstanding of a scientist and the scientist NEVER said what is in the thread title...it is completely wrong! But it's exactly like this where someone like glend can point to someone else who says the scientist said that....and yes the article does say that...but it's WRONG in the other thread for sure because I have heard the scientist say exactly what he thinks in youtube videos. I'm not as familiar with the case being discussed here with the article by Donna Rachel Edmunds, but I have zero confidence that her claim of what the scientist said is accurate, since he doesn't say anything remotely close to that in the exact quotes.

To expound on that topic from another source about whether the spread is slowing down or not, there's an interesting youtube video from a physicist, who like many physicists, knows something about math. But he's not an epidemiologist so like the article glend posted, the focus is more on the mathematical aspects to seeing if the coronavirus spread is slowing down or not.

In summary, the data from S Korea show a dramatic slowdown of the spread in this view, and a somewhat more modest slowdown in the data from Japan. I feel like the data from S Korea is probably not falsified (I don't have the same confidence about the data from China which also show a slowdown, though I think the spread slowed in China even if their numbers aren't so trustworthy).

So watch this video if you want to see a mathematical analysis of where coronavirus spreading might be slowing down, but there are some caveats mentioned in the video (like the analysis is only as good as the data, and other limitations.).

How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.

So when we see the spread has slowed in S Korea, how do we duplicate that success elsewhere? This video gives some insight into why the S. Korea strategy seems to be effective. I find it informative, thanks to puzzled2 for posting the link:

You Need To Listen To This Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea


Note that a key factor in coronavirus deaths according to this expert is Immunosenescence, or a deterioration of the immune system with age (particularly the adaptive immune system, as opposed to the innate immune system which include things like skin that he says is a pretty good barrier because we don't catch it through our skin directly, it's touching a contaminated surface and then running that finger near our mouth or nose where it can contact mucous tissue that can transmit it).

He doesn't just claim it, but also provides actual data from his country which strongly supports the Immunosenescence correlation. So, after watching this, it occurs to me maybe we should not think of CFR as a single number, rather, maybe we should look at it like this expert, by age categories, roughly:

Under 40; strongest immune system, lowest fatality rates
40-60 moderate immune system, more fatalities than the under 40 group
Over 60, weakest immune system, (especially over 80) and the highest CFRs

He goes though his death rate data by age decades, and it definitely seems to be correlated strongly with advanced age, so the data suggest weakened immune systems in the elderly (a known phenomenon of aging) contribute to higher death rates.

originally posted by: puzzled2
a reply to: Arbitrageur

Things to make your mask out of.

For us not on the front line
interesting read on masks making using different materials and how to re-use an N95 but putting in oven 70c for 30 minutes.
a pdf on
Mask Materials and re-use information from Stanford Learnly Anesthesiologist

This interview explains reason in the west we don't wear masks is We didn't learn from SARS and are culturally different from those in Asia.
You Need To Listen To This Leading COVID-19 Expert From South Korea | ASIAN BOSS

Enjoy stay safe and be happy.

Thanks for the helpful links. That 70C for 30m sterilization method seems like a good tip from the first source, though the rest of it is a lot of "we don't know", which is understandable with a new virus.

I found the S. Korea expert video interesting, since S. Korea seems to have a better handle on stopping the coronavirus spread than many other countries.

pubs.rsna.org...

We report the first presumptive case of COVID-19–associated acute necrotizing hemorrhagic encephalopathy, a rare encephalopathy that has been associated with other viral infections but has yet to be demonstrated as a result of COVID-19 infection.

Acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE) is a rare complication of influenza and other viral infections and has been related to intracranial cytokine storms, which result in blood-brain-barrier breakdown, but without direct viral invasion or parainfectious demyelination (3). Accumulating evidence suggests that a subgroup of patients with severe COVID-19 might have a cytokine storm syndrome (4). While predominantly described in the pediatric population, ANE is known to occur in adults as wel

I'm thinking back to one of the very first threads. Thread one or two, someone posted a couple of videos of patients in Wuhan hospitals. They were seizing. Wonder if this has anything to do with it. They say it is the first case they know about so far. Who knows about China, though.

Edit: Forgot to add. "The symptoms of the viral infection (fever, respiratory infection, and gastroenteritis, among others) are followed by seizures, disturbance of consciousness that may rapidly progress to a coma, liver problems, and neurological deficits."

Disturbance of consciousness. There were people dropping in the streets as well in those videos I talked about. However, I'm not sure that I've seen that outside of China for some reason.

originally posted by: Jamie2018

originally posted by: DontTreadOnMe

Come on guys!!!! Take a breath!!!
and PLEASE read this!

This thread is for Corona Virus UPDATES ONLY!!!

...not debating and/or bickering

...not chit chat, SOAP BOX speeches, recipes, political trolling, class warfare, conspiracy theories, bigoted comments, medical advice, OFF TOPIC banter
ill-mannered remarks toward members or arguing....

Some NON-UPDATE threads here, feel free to join in any of these:
Diseases and Pandemics

 

Diseases and Pandemics:: Medical Disclaimer
This thread is NOT for discussion of alternative medical treatment of illnesses!!!

Members who continue to disrupt will face temporary posting bans. ATS will not allow the few to ruin it for everyone.



Go after the ball not the player.

Community Announcement re: Decorum


You are responsible for your own posts.....those who ignore that responsibility WILL face mod actions.



and, as always:

Do NOT reply to this post!!

FFS give it a rest "DontTreadOnMe" - 2 of Above Top Secret's Legends - "Byrd and Phage" are ignoring your ongoing bitching and continuing with their never-ending "Words of Wisdom" Chit Chat. They do not give a Rats A$$ about your constant plea's to keep this thread on topic.

Is it OK for them to do it? What about new members?

Will I be Banned for responding to a Do NOT reply to this post!! Will you allow us to chit chat as well as post updates? or will you ban me and Byrd and Phage?

Or just me.....

FFS let us chit chat as well as post updates - Don't be a Wet Blanket.

I think this may be my last post

You never even reached 100 post 😭

Drama queen .

a reply to: puzzled2

He's our resident skeptic, that's what he does. It's a useful position.

originally posted by: elitegamer23

originally posted by: Jamie2018

originally posted by: DontTreadOnMe

Come on guys!!!! Take a breath!!!
and PLEASE read this!

This thread is for Corona Virus UPDATES ONLY!!!

...not debating and/or bickering

...not chit chat, SOAP BOX speeches, recipes, political trolling, class warfare, conspiracy theories, bigoted comments, medical advice, OFF TOPIC banter
ill-mannered remarks toward members or arguing....

Some NON-UPDATE threads here, feel free to join in any of these:
Diseases and Pandemics

 

Diseases and Pandemics:: Medical Disclaimer
This thread is NOT for discussion of alternative medical treatment of illnesses!!!

Members who continue to disrupt will face temporary posting bans. ATS will not allow the few to ruin it for everyone.



Go after the ball not the player.

Community Announcement re: Decorum


You are responsible for your own posts.....those who ignore that responsibility WILL face mod actions.



and, as always:

Do NOT reply to this post!!

FFS give it a rest "DontTreadOnMe" - 2 of Above Top Secret's Legends - "Byrd and Phage" are ignoring your ongoing bitching and continuing with their never-ending "Words of Wisdom" Chit Chat. They do not give a Rats A$$ about your constant plea's to keep this thread on topic.

Is it OK for them to do it? What about new members?

Will I be Banned for responding to a Do NOT reply to this post!! Will you allow us to chit chat as well as post updates? or will you ban me and Byrd and Phage?

Or just me.....

FFS let us chit chat as well as post updates - Don't be a Wet Blanket.

I think this may be my last post

You never even reached 100 post 😭

Drama queen .

I have been on this site since 2006, I have asked for my password to log in as my previous alias but received no reply. I have forgotten my password and the email address I registered with is no longer valid. I am no spring chicken , I will tell you who I am if I am not banned for making a new ID. I have been around the block a few times, take no notice of my negative 100 posts. I am a long time poster - 14 plus years.