Corona Virus Updates Part 5

My back of a fag packet prediction for Uk deaths over next 2 weeks (assuming we're nowhere near the peak and doubling time is c.3 days):

2nd April: 694
3rd: 856
4th: 1056
5th: 1302
6th: 1606
7th: 1984
8th: 2444
9th: 3013
10th: 3717
11th: 4585
12th: 5654
13th: 6973
14th: 8600
15th: 10607
16th: 13082 - total dead over 75K

That's the exponential maths based on a 3 day doubling time.

originally posted by: new_here

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: Agit8dChop
www.reuters.com...:+Trending+Content&utm_ medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

LONDON (Reuters) - Losing your sense of smell and taste may be the best way to tell if you have COVID-19, according to a study of data collected via a symptom tracker app developed by British scientists to help monitor the pandemic caused by the new coronavirus.

2nd time ive seen this theory in a week

Almost 60% of patients who were subsequently confirmed as positive for COVID-19 had reported losing their sense of smell and taste, the data analyzed by the researchers showed.

That compared with 18% of those who tested negative.

It actually now shows up as a diagnostic trait in the "do you have coronavirus" list. So, yes. it's real.

Every morning I wake up and see how my smeller is doing. I've read that people can have no other symptoms than loss of smell. So it gives me a bit of peace to confirm each day that I can still smell. Weird, I know, but there it is.

Yeah,

Allergies ARE NOT helping with that.

Damn trees..

The stats show that the average temperature helps A LOT. So let's hope we've done enough damage to the world and the first heat wave to come in April

themarketear.com...

Hopefully the social distancing measures will slow that number in a weeks time. It will continue to rise though.
a reply to: DankyDSmythe

A piece in the Orlando Sentinel highlighted the fact that Florida is one of the least restrictive states when it comes to measures on social distancing and event closings. Their first case hit about the same time as Texas' first case, and I looked for information to compare the two states.

Wikipedia has a graphed, day-by-day timeline for Florida as well as for Texas

Texas is, of course, much larger land-wise but has huge population centers and has about 2 million people more. Like Florida, there's a bit of a rebel-type attitude but state and local officials have been utilizing shutdowns and reduced store hours to help control coronavirus here in Texas.

The bottom line between the comparisons is that Texas' somewhat stricter policy seems to have resulted in about half the cases and half the deaths as Florida.

We usually vacation in Florida each year. We'll be skipping this year (husband is diabetic, has Parkinson's and several other medical conditions.)


Fox News story on De Santos, who says he's waiting for White House guidance on this and that the White House wasn't calling for "stay at home" orders (therefore he's not issuing them.)



EDITED TO ADD:


I read a Facebook post from a friend who's an EMT here in Dallas last night -- very upset because our area of Dallas is now out of ICU beds.

a reply to: Byrd

Yes, unfortunately our governor is doing a terrible job managing this situation!!

All of the major newspapers have been calling him out and demanding that he follow the course of states with better numbers...

My paper today ran a column talking about how few people are being tested here (despite the governor's boasting about all the testing sites he's gotten set up!) and how some reporters were being refused info on testing and virus case numbers in nursing homes..

The bottomline is that we probably have a minimum of double the number of total cases being reported!!

edit to add: Also, he said he didn't feel the need for more 'restrictive' measures, because 'we still have a lot of counties with no cases' - but, 'hellooo', of course those counties haven't got cases, they haven't been doing any testing !!!

Daily update from Vermont: 321 cases (up from 293) and 16 deaths

30 patients hospitalized from COVID-19 and 45 other hospitalized patients are pending test results

Covid-19 has now moved to the third most common cause of death in the United States, behind heart disease and cancer.

A grim statistic.

originally posted by: lostgirl
a reply to: Byrd

Yes, unfortunately our governor is doing a terrible job managing this situation!!

All of the major newspapers have been calling him out and demanding that he follow the course of states with better numbers...

My paper today ran a column talking about how few people are being tested here (despite the governor's boasting about all the testing sites he's gotten set up!) and how some reporters were being refused info on testing and virus case numbers in nursing homes..

The bottomline is that we probably have a minimum of double the number of total cases being reported!!

Stay safe. Governor Abbot is not the most forward-thinking governor and we've lagged behind as well. Louisiana 's governor is even less restrictive. trying to reopen businesses. I don't think he's looking at his state's data, which is outright horrifying. It's hitting the prisons there.

originally posted by: Byrd
Covid-19 has now moved to the third most common cause of death in the United States, behind heart disease and cancer.

A grim statistic.

That's a bit manipulative. They're taking a single high day and weighing it against stats derived from averaging annual totals across 365 days. Using their methods, in 2001 Terrorism was the leading cause of deaths to Americans.

a reply to: ValentineWiggin


I have a bloody mary every morning. Just to make sure.

I also take my temperature twice a day.

The US is now over 200,000 confirmed cases. 5 days since breaking 100,000.

The world will probably break the 1 million mark today as well.

www.worldometers.info...

UK suffers record-breaking 563 coronavirus deaths and 4,324 cases in 24 hours - taking total number of victims to 2,352 with almost 30,000 Britons known to be infected

The UK has recorded another 563 coronavirus deaths today, making it the worst day so far in the devastating COVID-19 crisis. The increase takes the country's total death toll to 2,352 - today's surge is 48 per cent larger than yesterday's increase of 381 fatalities and pushes the total up by 31 per cent in a day. And 29,474 people have now tested positive for COVID-19. The UK is the fifth hardest-hit nation in Europe and eighth in the world. Wales today recorded 29 new deaths caused by the coronavirus along with a further 16 fatalities in Scotland and two in Northern Ireland. 486 victims were declared in England and 11 remain unaccounted for.

Today overtakes yesterday as Britain's darkest day so far in the escalating crisis. Tuesday saw a then-record of 381 deaths and 3,009 cases declared across the home nations. But the true size of the outbreak remains a mystery because of the UK's controversial policy to only test patients in hospital - and not the tens of thousands of Britons with milder symptoms who are recovering at at home. Research by Imperial College London has suggested that as many as one in 37 Brits - around 1.8million people - may already have caught the coronavirus and be unrecorded. And separate statistics published yesterday suggested the true death toll is 24 per cent higher than believed when deaths outside of hospitals are included.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

a reply to: DankyDSmythe

I don't think we'll see those sorts of numbers considering we'll see the numbers drop and stabilise like in Italy as we're in lockdown now, it's just a matter of time.

Yesterday at 1pm GMT, it was announced we hit 800K, today we hit 900K this afternoon, so at most 1.5 days between the two, being generous...


From the Guardian Live Feed :

- 3.44pm : 1st confirmed infection in Mumbai’s Dharavi slum, India, where up to 1 million people cram into just over 2.1 square kilometers.

The patient, a 56-year-old man, is now being treated at Sion hospital, India Today reports. Authorities have sealed the building where he lives - with the rest of its residents still inside - and placed eight to ten members of his family in quarantine, according to the report.

- 3.59pm : Germany extends Social Distancing Measures / "Contact Ban" until at least 19th April.

- 5.28pm : Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing the government to declare a state of emergency in a bid to stem the spread of coronavirus.

- 5.36pm : Italy records lowest daily increase in Deaths in a Week.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has signed a law allowing the government to declare a state of emergency in a bid to stem the spread of coronavirus.
The total number of infections confirmed in the country since February 21 now stands at 110,574.
On Wednesday, 16,847 people in Italy had recovered from the illness, in comparison to 15,729 people on Tuesday.
There were also 4,035 people in intensive care, up from a previous 4,023.

- 5.59pm : France is likely to unwind its nationwide lockdown gradually rather than in one go, the prime minister has said.
The French government has ordered people to stay at home except for essential outings until at least April 15.

From Frenc h Live Feed :

- 19h07 : In the 'Grand-Est' region (Mulhouse, etc) Two thirds of the Retirement Homes have cases.
570 Old people have died so far in these homes, because of complications from COVID-19.

More details, and numbers in their Article on the subject (In French).

originally posted by: DAZ21
a reply to: DankyDSmythe

I don't think we'll see those sorts of numbers considering we'll see the numbers drop and stabilise like in Italy as we're in lockdown now, it's just a matter of time.

The issue is how long that time takes.

It takes 5 days to a month (depending on the person) to show symptoms.

Then from symptoms between 5 days and 3 weeks to death (with little medical intervention).

On a ventilator they could keep going for 4 to 5 weeks.

So there's between a minimum of 10 days (infection to death) to a maximum of 9 weeks (infection to death).

Taking a broad average between the 2 we're about 26.5 days behind the curve (deaths lagging infections by 26.5 days).

If you don't like that number a more favourable one is 19.5 days (a full week less).

So we're going to see deaths increasing for at least 19.5 days until we hit the lockdown effect.

Even if you don't like that number and let's knock another week off it, it's still 12.5 days or almost 2 weeks of rising deaths.

There's no avoiding this - you don't catch it today, get ill today, and die tomorrow - it takes weeks and that number is different for everyone.

But what you can be sure of is that the UK government won't smash it's economy, borrow trillions, build 4 or 5 new hospitals with 25K beds, build new gigantic morgues, and etc if they expect we'll "flatten off" "like Italy" and only see " a few thousand deaths".

People don't realise they're doing it but they absorb the govt propaganda spread by the MSM then repeat it like parrots as though it's fact and a foregone conclusion.

I've been saying this since the beginning, no one wants to listen, but the dominoes of truth keep on falling.

Deaths in the UK will keep rising for AT LEAST 2 weeks from now, we're right at the bottom of the upward curve, and the reason is we took far too long to lock down anything.

Anyway that's my opnion, you have yours, time will reveal the truth.

Well, here's NY's updated numbers. How high will it go? This morning we were at 76049, now we stand at 83712, 1941 have past on:
www.worldometers.info...

originally posted by: MrRCflying
The US is now over 200,000 confirmed cases. 5 days since breaking 100,000.

The world will probably break the 1 million mark today as well.

www.worldometers.info...

That’s more infected than the whole population of alaska(737,000).

Id understand why some people don’t think it’s a big deal. They live very far from New York City, population of NYC is 8.6 million .

Stay safe people !

Just a check in from the PhiladelphiaSouth Jersey area.

Center City Philly is pretty ominous to see right now.

While a lot of big cities are showing a substantial reduction in traffic our close proximity to NYC and North Jersey + the expected uptick in cases as from there plus the normal stereotypes of Philly folks seems to have had the impact of forcing many business to board up their storefronts for protection in anticipation of looting, chaos and The Walking Dead..

www.inquirer.com...