Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: elitegamer23

I’m not religious but if you are , please pray for the USA, pray for New York , pray for all of humanity , pray for the front line health care workers! Even the janitors at the hospitals are putting their lives on the line.

If this weren't the Corona Virus Updates thread, I'd be very curious to know why someone who isn't religious believes in the efficacy of other peoples prayers

originally posted by: BPilgrim

originally posted by: elitegamer23

I’m not religious but if you are , please pray for the USA, pray for New York , pray for all of humanity , pray for the front line health care workers! Even the janitors at the hospitals are putting their lives on the line.

If this weren't the Corona Virus Updates thread, I'd be very curious to know why someone who isn't religious believes in the efficacy of other peoples prayers

Prayer is sending positive energy, one doesn't have to be religious to get that concept.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

The OP seems to disagree with you, his statement indicates prayers are the domain of the religious. I'd say take it up with him but we should probably not do this here.

manila

needed to take some time off, but am back at least a bit.

still under lockdown/"enhance community quarantine", at least two more weeks to go on it. last week my area started to issue passes for people who are allowed to go out of the house to get things like food and supplies. only one person per household can have one, and must carry ID along with the pass when out. of course those over 60 and under 18 years of age are prohibited from going out at all. otherwise the only people are allowed out are those working essential jobs. some public transit vehicles have now been contracted to transport such workers. many areas have now also banned the sale of any alcohol (as in the stuff you drink. haven't been able to find rubbing alcohol for weeks.

we have now made it to over 1,000 cases in the Philippines. but the worrying part is that although deaths and recoveries are still small in number, we seem to be holding at about two deaths for every recovery. and even worse is that doctors are making up over 10% of the deaths so far. they have already announced contingency plans for loosing doctors. with the second line of defense being made up of retired (and thus very at risk), doctors and teachers from the medical schools. and the third line of defense is those students IN medical school. not a very happy thought at all. masks and other PPE is still a major issue in hospitals. although the community at large is stepping up. doing things such as making masks. some like umbrella manufacturers are actually making protective clothing. and glass plastics workers are making boxes that the medical community put out that they wanted. which can be put over the patients head area and thus much reduces airborne and other spread. with holes for hands and needed medical equipment.

many big businesses are also doing what they can to help. with big restaurant companies like McDonalds (McDonalds really started that), as well as big store chains continuing to pay those who are not working. as well as in at least some cases adding hazard pay for those working. at least one of the big mall chains is also canceling rent from their tenants who can not be open in their malls at this time. still many people are not getting any pay at all. especially since so many have their own businesses, like small sari sari restaurants. as well as all the people like tricy and jeepney drivers.

the governments are also trying to help, delivering at least some food to everyone, distributing it via the Barangays. we got ours yesterday and it consisted of two bags of rice (about 4 kilo), 5 small cans of anchovies (very popular for many people), 1 small can of corned beef, 1 small can of tuna, 10 packs of instant coffee (which is how most people make coffee, and it's not t he nasty crap like in North America, but pretty decent), 2 small packs of pancit noodles with a flavour mix, and a pack of cheese bun type things. speaking of food delivery, this like restaurant delivers are no contact. the deliverer puts it on a chair or on top of the bag/box used to transport it on the motorcycle, and steps back. the person then takes the stuff, checks the order. and then places the money down, and steps back. the delivery person then checks the money, (gives change? in the same way). then leaves. i noticed on my last trip to the store, just before the pass system came into effect, that most delivery drivers were wearing rain suits or raincoats (and it was a bright sunny day).

been having a lot of problems with the Chinese, as per usual (mostly illegals). the other days catching two or three VANLOADS (so much for social distancing), of workers from Manila on their way up to Cagayon, to work in Casinos (likely t he illegal ones, again as per normal), which of course is insanely against all the quarantine rules, like no travel, social distancing, and casinos being closed. also being busted for things like manufacture and sale of counterfeit rubbing alcohol. as well as their normal crimes like prostitution, human trafficking and drugs.

it seems there are also problem keeping the people in the poor (normally illegal squatter communities), areas from leaving their homes. and lets face it, when you have families living in one room houses smaller than most of the smallest bedrooms in North America, (literally many are only barely big enough for the family to sleep in together), i can see why. and of course they have no yards, and houses packed together like sardines. so even just sitting in front of your doorway means close contact with everyone in the neighbourhood. i have even seen where people have set up tarps from their roofs, into the road or on the sidewalk, so that they can "still be inside their house" while being outside their house. which of course solves nothing, since they are open to everyone else around them. those tiny hocuses also mean that there is no way to quarantine a sick person in a family. if one gets sick they all do. they are trying to deal with that issue by moving sick people to quarantine areas. but of course first they have to know someone is sick, when most of those people would only go to the doctor if it's life or death in the first place. which means everyone else around them is being exposed. also an issue is the fact that many houses in those areas also share a community toilet. and of course they do all of their cooking outside, unless they are rich enough to own a hotplate and have electricity. in which case they might be able to cook in their house a bit. with most cooking on open coal and wood fires.

for the most part, people are extremely bored. i know just taking the garbage out is almost a nice change, since it lets me get out of my walled yard and house, even if just for a minute. my dog is going nuts wanting to be taken out for a walk, which i can't do. and to be honest it would really suck if she got the virus by going out for her walk and got sick and died, and/or passed it onto us.

a reply to: Phage

An O.

originally posted by: BPilgrim

originally posted by: elitegamer23

I’m not religious but if you are , please pray for the USA, pray for New York , pray for all of humanity , pray for the front line health care workers! Even the janitors at the hospitals are putting their lives on the line.

If this weren't the Corona Virus Updates thread, I'd be very curious to know why someone who isn't religious believes in the efficacy of other peoples prayers

It’s just something I say and hopenotfear said it perfectly .

Nothing to see here.

CFR @ 18%.



www.worldometers.info...

Not even going to get in a battle with ignorance deniers on many, many threads. I'll keep it real here in the update thread.

This site has turned denial in to the status quo.

a reply to: UFO1414

CFR @ 18%.

As long as the number of unresolved cases remains high, and changes, that number is not very reliable. It is a moving target. This is not denial, this is science.

But, at this stage of the crisis, that number is not really what matters. It is the number of hospitalizations which does. Not percentages, the actual numbers.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
Despite being one of the worst-hit countries in terms of infection levels, Germany has been an outlier when it comes to its fatality rate...

This is by far the most important point in this whole crisis, mostly ignored by 99% of the media (MS, social or otherwise). It was underlined by a thread I began earlier about Oxford Uni this week estimating that 50% of Brits have already been infected. The implications, if accurate, are highly positive for purely logical and mathematical reasons as we hit 1000+ deaths since the outbreak began, while simultaneously up to 2000 people have 'naturally' died EACH DAY based on the average mortality rate - obviously varying for different countries or states.

A realistic number for the total infected within each country, and equating that with the average daily mortality rate is the golden key to ascertaining the real wider dangers and measures to be taken - or NOT taken - beyond sensible precautions for the elderly and/or ill within this whole mess.

But info such as this seems as effective as a mouse roaring within the storm of global panic that engulfs it. Other ATSers such Burdman and Grambler will no doubt be nodding, but at the moment we are all mice that roar until the global dust settles and the real answers behind this pandemic are discovered. Hopefully we will all still have functioning economies by that stage.

Update Mar.28/20 - 11pm EST
Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Global Cases (by JHU CSSE)
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com...#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Canada * 2,498-Quebec, 1,144-Ontario, 884-British Columbia, 621-Alberta,
64-Manitoba, 13-Grand Princess, 51-New Brunswick, 134-Saskatchewan
11-Prince Edward Island, 120- Newfoundland & Labrador, 110-Nova Scotia
1- Northwest Territories, 4-Yukon
Total= 5,655

coronavirus.1point3acres.com... USA & Canada Updates

Mar.01/20 - 4 more confirm + 20 Canada = Total 24
Mar.02/20 - 3 more confirm + 24 Canada = Total 27
Mar.03/20 - 6 more confirm + 27 Canada = Total 33
Mar.04/20 - 1 more confirm + 33 Canada = Total 34
Mar.05/20 - 14 more confirm + 34 Canada = Total 48
Mar.06/20 - 6 more confirm + 48 Canada = Total 54
Mar.07/20 - 6 more confirm + 54 Canada = Total 60
Mar.08/20 - 6 more confirm + 60 Canada = Total 66
Mar.09/20 - 11 more confirm + 66 Canada = Total 78
Mar.10/20 - 19 more confirm + 78 Canada = Total 97
Mar.11/20 - 21 more confirm + 78 Canada = Total 119
Mar.12/20 - 40 more confirm + 119 Canada = Total 159
Mar.13/20 - 43 more confirm + 159 Canada = Total 202
Mar.14/20 - 55 more confirm + 202 Canada = Total 257
Mar.15/20 - 86 more confirm + 257 Canada = Total 343
Mar.16/20 - 98 more confirm + 343 Canada = Total 444
Mar.17/20 - 154 more confirm + 444 Canada = Total 588
Mar.18/20 - 129 more confirm + 588 Canada = Total 729
Mar.19/20 - 146 more confirm + 716 Canada = Total 875
Mar.20/20 - 216 more confirm + 873 Canada = Total 1,091
Mar.21/20 - 242 more confirm + 1,089 Canada = Total 1,333
Mar.22/20 - 141 more confirm + 1,333 Canada = Total 1,474
Mar.23/20 - 621 more confirm + 1,474 Canada = Total 2,095
Mar.24/20 - 727 more confirm + 2,095 Canada = Total 2,822
Mar.25/20 - 590 more confirm + 2,822 Canada = Total 3,412
Mar.26/20 - 634 more confirm + 3,412 Canada = Total 4,046
Mar.27/20 - 714 more confirm + 4,046 Canada = Total 4,760
Mar.28/20 - 895 more confirm + 4,760 Canada = Total 5,655

www.worldometers.info...

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UFO1414

CFR @ 18%.

As long as the number of unresolved cases remains high, and changes, that number is not very reliable. It is a moving target. This is not denial, this is science.

But, at this stage of the crisis, that number is not really what matters. It is the number of hospitalizations which does. Not percentages, the actual numbers.

I get that for a 60,000 foot view.

All I've done for 2 months is spit the actual facts out. Not projections.

Phage, I'm in your corner on this one but the REAL TIME numbers are the numbers.

It's supposed to get worse.

I hope I'm wrong.

a reply to: elitegamer23

I don't disagree with what he said in general but in relation to your post it makes zero sense. It blows my mind that people can read what you said and then what he said and consider it a good response. You said, "I’m not religious but if you are , please pray". So according to your words religion is necessary for prayer.

Then hopenot comes along and says, "Prayer is sending positive energy, one doesn't have to be religious to get that concept." So one doesn't have to be religous to pray. And this is a perfect explanation of what you said?

Y'all are too clever for me.

a reply to: UFO1414

Phage, I'm in your corner on this one but the REAL TIME numbers are the numbers.

Yes. The numbers are the numbers but as far as the true CFR goes they are not worth a lot at this stage.

academic.oup.com...
There is definitely a nonnegligible number of patients with unknown outcomes and that number continues to rise. The CFR doesn't matter right now. Right now what matters is what will happen in hospitals. The number of patients will rise as the number of total cases rises. This is undeniable.

Return traveller charged over self-quarantine breach after 'spotted chatting in retirement village'

So it begins

a reply to: UFO1414

I'd be curious to know where and how those numbers are derived though. Far as I can tell, the worldwide data is 660k plus confirmed cases via JHU updated every night at their repository at 20:00 EST



which renders a current 4.64% CFR
Full Size


and US only



which renders a current 1.67% CFR
Full Size

Though, like Phage said, its really a meaningless number at this stage, I would be curious to know how those numbers were arrived at?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: UFO1414

Phage, I'm in your corner on this one but the REAL TIME numbers are the numbers.

Yes. The numbers are the numbers but as far as the true CFR goes they are not worth a lot at this stage.

academic.oup.com...
There is definitely a nonnegligible number of patients with unknown outcomes and that number continues to rise. The CFR doesn't matter right now. Right now what matters is what will happen in hospitals. The number of patients will rise as the number of total cases rises. This is undeniable.

You're still projecting. I'm looking at the hard numbers. Not saying you're wrong when this all plays out, but it is at an uphill climb.

30,000+ and we're in the first inning.




SARS killed less than 800 people worldwide when it was the threat.

Did China fudge their SARS numbers or something?

This is bigger than that.



globalnews.ca...

en.wikipedia.org...

Gotta go to bed (EST here), appriciate the banter nonetheless.

a reply to: Phage

At what point is a mortality rate accurately calculable? After the number of hospitalizations has dropped close to 0?

a reply to: carewemust

When more "limbo" cases resolve, probably.

originally posted by: DictionaryOfExcuses
a reply to: carewemust

When more "limbo" cases resolve, probably.

And re-examine some cases of those who died in 2019 because of a mistakenly diagnosed "flu". If that's possible without exhuming the bodies.

a reply to: carewemust

It will never be an absolute value but when the number of unresolved cases (hospitalized or not) becomes negligible (statistically insignificant) the estimates become more reliable. But simple ratios of fatalities to cases at a point in time cannot be relied upon.

Say, for example, that it turns out that chloroquine turns out to be an effective treatment. The numbers now would instantly become meaningless . Conversely, say that the health care system is overrun to the point that our current level of medical care becomes moot. Same situation, the numbers now don't count.