Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: Phage

originally posted by: DictionaryOfExcuses
Was just watching the livestream of Wuhan on YT, and read on the "ticker" that "lethality" is deaths×100/deaths+recovered. Does anyone know how this is different from CFR? In other words, what exactly does "lethality" express?

deaths×100/deaths+recovered, I think. Off the top of my head.

Should be (deaths/deaths+recovered)*100, I believe.

According to the statistics, the States has 123,776 confirmed cases and...

Deaths:
2,229
Recovered:
3,231

That would mean, for right now, the infected have about a 50/50 chance of survival. That's assuming that the 3,231 don't get it back. The ratio of deaths and recovered for Italy are about 50/50 as well. Not good.

This virus is FAR from a damned flu, if anyone's still thinking that. This is a real test for humanity. Either we will find a cure, or good treatment, or...

Sources:
www.worldometers.info...
www.google.com...

a reply to: UFO1414

Hold on I thought the denominator in the CFR calculation was the cumulative number of infected cases in the midst of a pandemic. You can only use the number of recovered AFTER it has passed. Because Only then does the number of deaths + recovered = infected cases. From alphabeta’s Link:

Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time; the resulting ratio is then multiplied by 100 to yield a percentage.

Also, this CDC Research Letter factors in a 13-day lag from infection to death, noting that denominator should be the cumulative cases as of t-13 days ago.

Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

By using the number of cumulative cases on February 21 as the denominator for the adjusted case-fatality risk (aCFR), we assumed that half of the additional cumulative reported deaths on March 5 could be matched with cases reported on February 21. We acknowledge our approach is fairly simplistic and that it can be superseded when higher quality cohort-based analyses become available.

The case-fatality risks, when adjusted for a 13-day lag time from reporting to death, were 3.5% in China; 0.8% in China, excluding Hubei Province; 4.2% in the group of 82 countries, territories, and areas; and 0.6% for the cruise ship (Table). Our result for China, excluding Hubei Province, is similar to a previous estimate of 0.9% (95% CI 0.6%–1.3%) by using a time-delay adjusted case-fatality risk for the same area (K. Mizumoto and G. Chowell, unpub. data; www.medrxiv.org... Link

Granted they’re using China numbers that are probably inaccurate but it gives a glimpse into the calculation in which they use cumulative cases not recovered. It is interesting using the lag however Because it produces a much higher CFR in the midst of the pandemic as the number of new cases are accelerating every day making the t-13 base very small relative to what it would be once this is over. I mean if you took today’s deaths, halved then and added them to the cumulative deaths you’d get something like:

27,381 deaths / 169,517 (cumulative cases on March 15th) = 16.15% CFR

Now let’s say the pandemic is over today and all the numbers are in:

27,417 deaths / 600,859 cumulative cases = 4.56% CFR

With the explosion of cases in the US over the past 2 weeks, the first calculation seems wildly inaccurate as it is basing the calculation on a much smaller base similar to only the number recovered. After it has passed we’ll hopefully see numbers closer to 3% and less.

Point is I’ve been calculating it on the cumulative total cases so far. Anyone else here doing that?

originally posted by: IWant2Believe323
a reply to: UFO1414

Hold on I thought the denominator in the CFR calculation was the cumulative number of infected cases in the midst of a pandemic. You can only use the number of recovered AFTER it has passed. Because Only then does the number of deaths + recovered = infected cases. From alphabeta’s Link:

Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time; the resulting ratio is then multiplied by 100 to yield a percentage.

Also, this CDC Research Letter factors in a 13-day lag from infection to death, noting that denominator should be the cumulative cases as of t-13 days ago to get a more accurate picture of The CFR.

Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

By using the number of cumulative cases on February 21 as the denominator for the adjusted case-fatality risk (aCFR), we assumed that half of the additional cumulative reported deaths on March 5 could be matched with cases reported on February 21. We acknowledge our approach is fairly simplistic and that it can be superseded when higher quality cohort-based analyses become available.

The case-fatality risks, when adjusted for a 13-day lag time from reporting to death, were 3.5% in China; 0.8% in China, excluding Hubei Province; 4.2% in the group of 82 countries, territories, and areas; and 0.6% for the cruise ship (Table). Our result for China, excluding Hubei Province, is similar to a previous estimate of 0.9% (95% CI 0.6%–1.3%) by using a time-delay adjusted case-fatality risk for the same area (K. Mizumoto and G. Chowell, unpub. data; www.medrxiv.org... Link

Granted they’re using China numbers that are inaccurate but it gives a glimpse into the calculation in which they use cumulative cases not recovered. Using the lag however produces a much higher CFR in the midst of the pandemic because the number of new cases are accelerating every day Making the t-13 base very small relative to what it would be once this is over. I mean if you took today’s deaths halved then and added then to the formula you’d get something like:

27,381 deaths / 169,517 (cumulative cases on March 15th) = 16.15% CFR

Now let’s say the pandemic is over today and all the numbers are in:

27,417 deaths / 600,859 cumulative cases = 4.56% CFR

With the explosion of cases in the US IVER THE PART 2 weeks, the first calculation is wildly inaccurate as is basing the calculation on only the number recovered. After it has passed we’ll hopefully see numbers closer to 3% and less.

I’ve been calculating it on the cumulative total cases so far. Anyone else here doing that?

In other words no one has any idea about what they are talking about; is that fair?

a reply to: Byrd

No. My question was, where and how they were derived? The claim, in that OP was that CFR was now at 18% which is grossly overstated. Per the link I sent to the OP, there is only one way (though the number is irrelevant at the moment) to calculate CFR, and that would be (total number of deaths / total number of confirmed cases) * 100 over a predefined period of time. It's impossible to gauge CFR based solely upon total worldwide deaths and only closed cases, which is what that 18% was representative of.

a reply to: ColoradoJens

Yuup

a reply to: LoneCloudHopper2

But by focusing on only deaths and recoveries you’re ignoring the entire population of currently infected cases.Recovery for this illness is anywhere from 1-4 weeks.

a reply to: IWant2Believe323

Yes. Hope the ratio changes. Right now, it's not looking good.

newsletter.thaivisa.com...

Thailand on Sunday reported a 143 new coronavirus cases, including one death.

The new infections bring the total number of cases in Thailand to 1,388 and 7 deaths.

One of the respondents (TallGuyJohninBK) at the website said;

Right now, there's almost 7500 people admitted as inpatients in Thai hospitals with COVID type symptoms, and most of those apparently are still waiting for confirming tests. It's a much bigger problem than just 143 reported new cases in a day.

I have no idea if he is correct however how can anyone trust numbers of those infected if there is none, or very little testing no matter who is reporting.

The high CFR is without the actual number of infected. Only those that are positive. For every caught infected there are 10 who are not

a reply to: chiefsmom

Yeah here in New Mexico, our Gov said all schools are done for the school year today. They’re moving to distance learning and handing out pass/fail only, no letter grades. I don’t have kids though so I have no idea what that entails. Linky here:

NM public schools closed for rest of year

I think the last time I posted was a week ago we had 22 cases here, now we have 208. Crazy but in the scheme of things we are very fortunate.

Public Education Secretary Ryan Stewart said Friday that a statewide school closure will be extended for the rest of the academic year, due to rising coronavirus infection rates.

“It’s quite clear that it’s not yet safe to be able to bring our students back into school,” Stewart said during a virtual news conference.

Public preschools and K-12 schools across the state were ordered to shut down effective March 16 to help stop the spread of COVID-19. Students were initially scheduled to go back to school April 6, though Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham recently warned that the closure could end up being even longer.

As of Friday, state health officials had reported 191 positive cases of COVID-19 in New Mexico. Thirteen people are hospitalized statewide, and one person has died of the disease.

In addition to school closures, Lujan Grisham has ordered New Mexicans to stay home and go out only if absolutely necessary, nonessential businesses have been ordered to close, and gatherings have been limited to no more than five people.

“Keeping schools closed is one of the most important tools we have to support the social distancing that can help us reduce and mitigate the spread of the virus,” Lujan Grisham wrote in a statement.

I’ve been turning the news off and hopping off the internet the past week. We’re hunkered down and I’m practicing making soap from scratch...been a really nice relaxing distraction. Hope everyone is well and staying sane!!

The death rate is currently 2.4% or so or even less.

Baked by actual data.

a reply to: ZeroFurrbone
Source? Or at least the hard numbers used to calculate that? And also is that a calculation for Worldwide CFR or of a particular country?

originally posted by: primalfractal
'It manifested very differently': Woman with coronavirus couldn't speak or walk

Does this mean another strain?

a reply to: drussell41

No
I listened yesterday a podcast of doctor who works at Helsinki university hospital and has been treating patients of COVID 19.
What he said this flu is weird, CRP of patients has been between 4 to 300. Most of them had dhiarrea and liver ( ALAT) values has been high, and symptoms vary from patient to patient.

So TP hoarders.. you were right !

originally posted by: Stormdancer777
www.thedrive.com...

U.S. Northern Command has dispersed essential command and control teams to multiple hardened locations, including the famous Cheyenne Mountain bunker complex in Colorado, as well as another unspecified site, and is keeping them in isolation. The command took these steps to help ensure these personnel can continue to watch around the clock for potential threats to the U.S. homeland as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to expand across the country and around the world, including within the U.S. military.

Panic now?

No. This is probably just standard operating procedure for a pandemic, and we already knew it was a pandemic.

originally posted by: LoneCloudHopper2
According to the statistics, the States has 123,776 confirmed cases and...

Deaths:
2,229
Recovered:
3,231

That would mean, for right now, the infected have about a 50/50 chance of survival. That's assuming that the 3,231 don't get it back. The ratio of deaths and recovered for Italy are about 50/50 as well. Not good.

This virus is FAR from a damned flu, if anyone's still thinking that. This is a real test for humanity. Either we will find a cure, or good treatment, or...

Sources:
www.worldometers.info...
www.google.com...

The worrying thing about those figures is that the earliest infected and hospitalised will have received the most attentive care - before the utter chaos and absolute strain of the surge started to take place. Many countries are now in the first throws of that surge and it is likely that the death rate will increase.

The ONLY thing that really matters with regards to CFR is that it’s a LOT higher than we’d like and far exceeds flu. It is likely to fluctuate as we go along, but it is way too high for comfort and appears to be climbing.

However it is the number of infected requiring hospitalisation that will truly bring our health services to their knees.

originally posted by: ZeroFurrbone
The death rate is currently 2.4% or so or even less.

Baked by actual data.

Wouldn't be the first time data is " baked"

Here's the updates for NY. 52318 last night this morning we are at 53455, Oneida county is at 28:
www.worldometers.info...
www.wktv.com... 1.html

ONEIDA COUNTY --- Oneida County confirms 4 additional cases of COVID-19 bringing the total to 28 countywide. Five patients are currently being hospitalized. 4 at MVHS facilities and 1 at Rome Memorial Hospital.

Update from the Netherlands 29/03/2020:

Total cases 9762 (+1159)

Total dead 639 (+93)

Source:
www.rivm.nl...

+1195 in one day, this is getting way out of hand. What do we have today @ 14:00 (GMT +1). +2000

People are coughing, getting sick and all I hear is stay home. Staying add home is killing me, I rather get this virus and get it over with. If I perish from this decease so be it, if I have to go I will go. And honestly I truly don't care anymore.

T