Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

The virus causes a disease ...

Then a disease bio weapon!

originally posted by: Halfswede
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite
To be even clearer, COVID-19 is the infectious disease caused by the the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

It is just that it is already confusing enough with names and COVID-19 seems to be the common way to reference.

Then a disease bio weapon nonetheless!

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Also some of the antibacterial stuff does not kill 100%,

Ummm... anti-bacterial soap will kill a whopping 0.0% of viruses. It is useless against this thing, and will only make the explosion of antiobiotic resistant bugs worse.

Anti-bacterial soaps should be banned for all but professional use by those who know when it should be used.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

The virus causes a disease ...

Then a disease bio weapon nonetheless!

Don't get too wrapped up in the semantics. It's a pathogen driven illness. Bio-weapons are by definition a delivery method of pathogens which can/may cause pathogen-driven illness. Regular bacterial and viral infectious diseases are also pathogen driven illnesses just the delivery is "natural".

Whether this is a BW or not is open for discussion, but calling it a disease vs a virus is just semantics in most cases. The only difference being you can/could have the virus without the disease.

originally posted by: blackrabbit1
a reply to: Whenever82828

The age data is specific to china, not a great representation of western cultures. We have much different lifestyles, health etc.

And yet the deaths in western countries is pretty much holding to those.

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
posted on Mar, 7 2020 @ 12:14

reckon we're 1 week away from more cases outside China than inside.

Well, a week ago, cases outside China were between 21 and 25k. At that time I modelled that we would see confirmed cases outside of China outweigh the supposed number of confirmed cases inside China by the end of today.

It's going to be close. I would prefer I had been wrong.

a reply to: Sillyolme


Yep... my kids are out of school now and I notice that Northam's statement says a minimum which means this two week time period could be increased to a longer period. I imagine it's going to be determined on how things go in the next 2 weeks.

When I picked my kids up yesterday, they said their school is going to go through deep cleaning during the two weeks then open again.

We have 30 cases in Virginia. 4 are confirmed in my localities but not specifically in our city per se, but in the Tidewater/Hampton Roads area the cities are sorta connected so...

leolady

According to Reuters, Germany has ordered 10,000 ventilators, Italy has ordered 5,000.
Factories in overdrive in Europe. Italy is getting the army involved in helping the production line.
As far as I’m aware, the UK has one small manufacturer of ventilators that has 40% market share.

Whilst reassuring to some extent. I wonder who is going to be staffing the extra ventilators??

www.bbc.co.uk... entilator%20production%20stepped%20up%20in%20Europe%262020-03-14T10%3A10%3A52.167Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b1a1c150-4e7d-4428-b905-c7d6 fa18a08c&pinned_post_asset_id=5e6ca95fc429ed066b59258b&pinned_post_type=share

The numbers are really spiking again over the last few days, possibly more people being tested or is a wave, a genuine surge in infections ?

originally posted by: checkmeout

According to Reuters, Germany has ordered 10,000 ventilators, Italy has ordered 5,000.
Factories in overdrive in Europe. Italy is getting the army involved in helping the production line.
As far as I’m aware, the UK has one small manufacturer of ventilators that has 40% market share.

Whilst reassuring to some extent. I wonder who is going to be staffing the extra ventilators??

www.bbc.co.uk... entilator%20production%20stepped%20up%20in%20Europe%262020-03-14T10%3A10%3A52.167Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b1a1c150-4e7d-4428-b905-c7d6 fa18a08c&pinned_post_asset_id=5e6ca95fc429ed066b59258b&pinned_post_type=share

UK will probably sell all their ventilators to the EU et al. What does the UK need ventilators for when everyone is dying at home? (Not from COVID-19 of course, because they will never get tested.) Even if they kept them, with shortage of 50k nurses, let alone critical care nurses, like you say, who's going to man them?

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
posted on Mar, 7 2020 @ 12:14

reckon we're 1 week away from more cases outside China than inside.

Well, a week ago, cases outside China were between 21 and 25k. At that time I modelled that we would see confirmed cases outside of China outweigh the supposed number of confirmed cases inside China by the end of today.

It's going to be close. I would prefer I had been wrong.

Declared cases! The real numbers could be staggering and we are about to find out how staggering. If the numbers outside China are expected to continue to grow exponentially to a peak in approximately 10 weeks time (according to UK Chief MO) then we will get an idea of the truth of what has or is still transpiring inside China. If the number of cases doubles every week for 10 weeks then number of cases worldwide will be something like this in 10 weeks and I would guess conservative at that!

80k x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 81m +
Assume 5-10% death rate = 4 to 8m dead

originally posted by: saladfingers123456
UK POLICE GIVEN POWERS TO ARREST ...2 YEARS OF DRACONIAN RULE

Well, that is one of the most saddening reads from the UK yet.

Damn 😐
Is need to see a more credible source to believe it all, but I'm already believing it tbh 😕

Something I've been thinking about but not seen mentioned, sorry if I've missed it, I've been reading since thread 1:

Could the massive shut downs in school systems all over the world be a guise to keep the majority of a family in a type of pseudo quarantine?

Something to think about. Particularly in the US where a two income family is normal.

Update here in Tokyo: March 14, 2020 8 pm Saturday

1. Amagasaki City, Hyogo Prefecture, announced that the transmission of a new type of coronavirus in women in their 80s living in the city has been confirmed.
It is said that women are users of the nursing home "Green Ars Itami" in Itami City, Hyogo Prefecture, where many infected people are.
In total, 57 people have been confirmed infected in Hyogo Prefecture.
2. Saitama Prefecture announced on April 14 that two people living in the prefecture have been newly infected with the new coronavirus.
3. Shortage of masks is serious at large hospitals in Kyoto and Osaka. (this doesn't sound right, maybe the military are getting first dabs at them. Which seems about right
4. The situation is changing every moment. Abe: “It is not a situation to declare an emergency at this time”. ( hey folks, you see the pattern of "control" the panic with words, very important. But actually those of us that no longer have an income coming in, those words are meaningless )
5. Pentagon All military personnel and their families No movement within the United States. ( there's more to this, but it just shows you that freedom maybe just a thing of the past) (some military people might chime in on this) ( I don't have access to Stars and Strips, wish I did)
6. An SDF officer who returned from France on a business trip is infected. (this doesn't sound good at all )
7. Confirmed 10 new infections in Tokyo, totaling 87. (Its Saturday, so these people were tested from Thursday on, expect by next Tuesday the numbers can be... I have no idea really, but something just isn't clicking right , not sure what it is. I base this among the results in Hokkaido. 5.5 million residents, Tokyo plus surrounding areas 14+million residents.

Well, there's more news out there, but I'll stop for now.
Good news is, stores are well stocked and no panic buying, at least where I'm at. Stage 2 panic as I have mentioned was postponed by PM Abe saying "no national emergency". (guess they need more planning wtshtf. Tokyo and Osaka, I just wouldn't want to be around at that time. No where to go actually)

www.latimes.com...

Finally, an article talking about ''reinfections''

They survived the coronavirus. Then they tested positive again. Why?

In Guangdong, officials responsible for the coronavirus response announced Feb. 25 that 14% of declared recoveries in the province had later retested positive.

Although most patients who retest positive do not display clinical symptoms, some have developed fevers and other signs of the virus. One such patient, a 36-year-old man, died in Wuhan on March 2, five days after being declared recovered.

originally posted by: Auramancer
Something I've been thinking about but not seen mentioned, sorry if I've missed it, I've been reading since thread 1:

Could the massive shut downs in school systems all over the world be a guise to keep the majority of a family in a type of pseudo quarantine?

Something to think about. Particularly in the US where a two income family is normal.

I don't think so. The only way is to quarantine areas and NOT let anyone enter like the villagers in China did. I can actually see road blocks in America doing the same thing in the future.

originally posted by: leolady
a reply to: Sillyolme


Yep... my kids are out of school now and I notice that Northam's statement says a minimum which means this two week time period could be increased to a longer period. I imagine it's going to be determined on how things go in the next 2 weeks.

When I picked my kids up yesterday, they said their school is going to go through deep cleaning during the two weeks then open again.

We have 30 cases in Virginia. 4 are confirmed in my localities but not specifically in our city per se, but in the Tidewater/Hampton Roads area the cities are sorta connected so...

leolady

Our governor in PA came right out and said that the two weeks period of statewide school closures is just to start. He said that they will re-evaluate the situation on March 30th and add time to the closure if needed.

With regard to deep cleaning the schools, if the people doing the cleaning are not using appropriate gear, and one of them are infected, it could be a waste of time and money.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
posted on Mar, 7 2020 @ 12:14

reckon we're 1 week away from more cases outside China than inside.

Well, a week ago, cases outside China were between 21 and 25k. At that time I modelled that we would see confirmed cases outside of China outweigh the supposed number of confirmed cases inside China by the end of today.

It's going to be close. I would prefer I had been wrong.

Declared cases! The real numbers could be staggering and we are about to find out how staggering. If the numbers outside China are expected to continue to grow exponentially to a peak in approximately 10 weeks time (according to UK Chief MO) then we will get an idea of the truth of what has or is still transpiring inside China. If the number of cases doubles every week for 10 weeks then number of cases worldwide will be something like this in 10 weeks and I would guess conservative at that!

80k x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 81m +
Assume 5-10% death rate = 4 to 8m dead

Unfortunately doubling every week is currently very optimistic. It's more like every 3.75 days. After 10 weeks the entire world would be infected. (I tend to use 4 days to be optimistic in the early stages of community spread.) Realistically this wouldn't happen because as infection saturates, R0 decreases, so the rate of infection decreases, but yeah, not good, even with optimistic numbers.

Lotsa firsts recorded.



www.worldometers.info...

Puerto Rico too. It's everywhere.

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
posted on Mar, 7 2020 @ 12:14

reckon we're 1 week away from more cases outside China than inside.

Well, a week ago, cases outside China were between 21 and 25k. At that time I modelled that we would see confirmed cases outside of China outweigh the supposed number of confirmed cases inside China by the end of today.

It's going to be close. I would prefer I had been wrong.

Declared cases! The real numbers could be staggering and we are about to find out how staggering. If the numbers outside China are expected to continue to grow exponentially to a peak in approximately 10 weeks time (according to UK Chief MO) then we will get an idea of the truth of what has or is still transpiring inside China. If the number of cases doubles every week for 10 weeks then number of cases worldwide will be something like this in 10 weeks and I would guess conservative at that!

80k x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 81m +
Assume 5-10% death rate = 4 to 8m dead

Unfortunately doubling every week is currently very optimistic. It's more like every 3.75 days. After 10 weeks the entire world would be infected. (I tend to use 4 days to be optimistic in the early stages of community spread.) Realistically this wouldn't happen because as infection saturates, R0 decreases, so the rate of infection decreases, but yeah, not good, even with optimistic numbers.

I did say that my numbers were conservative and I would guess a baseline, which is not good! if we were to go with every 4 days then that's everyone on the planet infected. And the death rate would be 0.5-1.5 billion
And depopulation mission complete!