Corona Virus Updates Part 5

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Dare I say it?

We are watching in front of our very eyes a depopulation exercise/mission unfolding that will result in the death of millions of people. By accident (it got out before planned) or deliberate.
Best case 4-8m - based on doubling every week for 10 weeks (note it has slowed to every 12 days in Italy)
Worst case 0.5-1.5bn - based on doubling every 4 days for 10 weeks (note it has slowed to every 12 days in Italy)

But some countries will fair better than others and some worse and some not at all so take the above's as averages. But I recon when all done it will be a minimum of 1m dead and I already think that China maybe got to that figure on their own.

Why wouldn't it be? The planet needs it! But that don't make it right!

C = China = Corona Virus = Contagion = Cull = Continuity!!

Lets not be N.

Thank you for your input.

May I ask where you got a doubling of 12 days for Italy? I expect rate to decrease eventually after lockdown. Close contacts will still spread, but that is limited, so rate would come down. Also perceived rate would reduce with lack of testing, either by capacity or because they go under the radar. But 12 days seems very slow (relatively) so interested in your methods or sources. Cheers.

Was just announced on Sky news minutes ago.

Thank you. That's bonkers. I have no idea where they have come up with this doubling of 12 days for Italy. Just using data from 10th to 13th of March gives doubling time of 3.78 days there, R squared of 0.994 (exceptionally good fit)

The Ohio Medical expert said it was every 6 days here in the US. I don't know how they are coming up with that either.

Back on page 282, 3/9/20, of part 4 I ran the numbers and came up with about 3 - 3.5 days for doubling. So far it has held. I said about 3,200 in the US on the 14th or 15th. It looks like we are on track to surpass 3,200 tomorrow 3/15. So just about the 3.5 days I had figured.

If it continues at that rate till the end of the month, confirmed cases will be over 100,000 in the US.

My findings agree with that. 3.5 days doubling has proven a good all rounder for predictions from the outset with this virus. It was 3.2 days in Hong Kong, until the numbers went weird. There was a paper claiming doubling rate of 6.2 days, but I still haven't found this reflected in reality.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
These numbers i'm seeing from China just seem unreal. I can't believe they have stemmed it to the very figures they say.

Today its supposedly only 11 new cases whereas there's 13 new deaths, 12,063 active cases? Out of 50 million people alone in Wuhan?? 2 Billion in whole of China? You can't tell me that this virus hasn't spread further in the whole of China with all the movement before Wuhan lockdown.

They haven't but they are probably on the descent climb but its the ascent that's being kept from the world and selfishly too. No humanity the Chinese.

The CCP are certainly lying, but the question is how much. Also, make sure you differentiate the CCP from the Chinese. It is them that have no humanity. There are many good Chinese. The Chinese will much better off when they cast off that filth.

Much of what is going on outside is a manipulated distraction from what is going on there. While there are real cases and disruption outside, I can assure you the focus will return to China and the CCP's situation where the real story is. Hang tight.

From BBC Live feed at 13h54 UK Time :

Netherlands Numbers jump to 959 (+155), an increase of almost 20%.

www.bbc.com...

From Wolrdometers, Spain is already at +791 Cases for the day, and +58 Deaths.
Now over 6000 cases in Spain total.

www.worldometers.info...

edit : From The Guardian Live Feed at 2.03pm :

Ireland preparing to close schools for 16 Weeks.

Link

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
Volusia County FL

Bike week permits were revoked last night
All permits for outdoor events werw also revoked.
New permits are not being looked at.

Schools are in spring break which has been extended to March 30.

FL has called in the national guard, not sure that I will see them.

Last supply run later today, will update.

All news available via google.

they were too late, watch for 2 weeks from now.

My relatives live in Port Orange, FL which I don't think is too far from you. They attended Bike Week each day too. I hope things are going okay there. I was just talking with my husband about the pros and cons of driving to down FL (from MI) and staying in a condo we rent from time-to-time that is on the gulf. It just feels like being by the ocean would be so calming. I envy you your location. So beautiful there. He's all for staying here, hunkered down until we see where this goes in the next couple of weeks.

I finally had my "Oh %^&*, this is real" moment this morning. To preface, I've been prepping for about ten years, so am not nervous in the slightest about not having supplies, but this really made it hit home today that this is for real:

Was stopping at the big box sporting goods store to pick up my final "tool" for the toolkit. A line of people is gathered in front fifteen minutes before opening.

I join the crowd (keeping a safe distance) and all of the talk is about the virus. Some jokes about needed to top off the ammo. One guy said that he was in the local Target and grocery store this morning, and shelves are picked almost bare. A man and a woman both discuss how they work for the giant medical system in town (it is nationally ranked in the Top 3, so you'd know the name) and that they aren't ready but going to do their best.

The door to the store opens and everyone marches immediately back to the firearms counter. The clerks explain to everyone that they are out of 9MM ammo completely (this is a national, gigantic sporting goods chain) and that 7.62 is very limited.

When I filled out my background check, it took fifteen minutes to come back approved. Every person in the store was grabbing a weapon.

This is pretty surreal.

10 more deaths in the UK taking it to 21.

Link

Ten more UK deaths.... Breaking now on Sky news.

Sky news

Edited to add all deaths were people in their 70s & 80s

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Dare I say it?

We are watching in front of our very eyes a depopulation exercise/mission unfolding that will result in the death of millions of people. By accident (it got out before planned) or deliberate.
Best case 4-8m - based on doubling every week for 10 weeks (note it has slowed to every 12 days in Italy)
Worst case 0.5-1.5bn - based on doubling every 4 days for 10 weeks (note it has slowed to every 12 days in Italy)

But some countries will fair better than others and some worse and some not at all so take the above's as averages. But I recon when all done it will be a minimum of 1m dead and I already think that China maybe got to that figure on their own.

Why wouldn't it be? The planet needs it! But that don't make it right!

C = China = Corona Virus = Contagion = Cull = Continuity!!

Lets not be N.

Thank you for your input.

May I ask where you got a doubling of 12 days for Italy? I expect rate to decrease eventually after lockdown. Close contacts will still spread, but that is limited, so rate would come down. Also perceived rate would reduce with lack of testing, either by capacity or because they go under the radar. But 12 days seems very slow (relatively) so interested in your methods or sources. Cheers.

Was just announced on Sky news minutes ago.

Thank you. That's bonkers. I have no idea where they have come up with this doubling of 12 days for Italy. Just using data from 10th to 13th of March gives doubling time of 3.78 days there, R squared of 0.994 (exceptionally good fit)

The Ohio Medical expert said it was every 6 days here in the US. I don't know how they are coming up with that either.

Back on page 282, 3/9/20, of part 4 I ran the numbers and came up with about 3 - 3.5 days for doubling. So far it has held. I said about 3,200 in the US on the 14th or 15th. It looks like we are on track to surpass 3,200 tomorrow 3/15. So just about the 3.5 days I had figured.

If it continues at that rate till the end of the month, confirmed cases will be over 100,000 in the US.

If the US numbers on average only double weekly for 10 weeks then that will be over 3.3m infected and between 163000 & 330,000 dead. And that's conservative based on current infection rate.

well, Manila is now under curfew. or is it? not being very clear, with conflicting information being given out by government and media (who are just reporting on what they have been told by government).

starting Sunday March 15 (tomorrow), the city of Manila apparently goes under curfew from 8pm, until 5am.

MANILA (2nd UPDATE) - Authorities will enforce a curfew from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. in Metro Manila to limit non-essential movement during the month-long community quarantine that begins Sunday, March 15, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) said Saturday.
Workers and those involved in essential services will be exempt from the curfew, which is set to affect 12 million people in the Philippine capital region, MMDA general manager Jose Arturo Santillan Garcia Jr. said in a press conference.
"'Ano 'yong kinu-curfew natin? Ito 'yung mga gumigimik lang kung saan-saan, ito yung saan-saan nagpupunta o nakikibarkada o nakikiparty, 'yan po, bawal muna," he added.
(Who are we imposing a curfew on? Those who go out to hang out with friends or party, it's not allowed.)

news.abs-cbn.com...

they also plan to close malls, only allowing things like grocery stores, banks, pharmacies and restaurants that deliver (which is actually almost all of them. even things like McDonalds, KFC, Burger King etc, all have their own delivery services. as do even most donut shops for that matter. and then the reis the things like Grab food delivery).

Metro Manila mayors also signed a resolution for the temporary closure of shopping malls and establishments of the same kind, said San Juan City Mayor Francis Zamora.
To limit the movement of people during the quarantine period, only supermarkets, pharmacies, banks, restaurants with home deliveries, and other essential establishments should be allowed to operate.
(The bottom-line is people are advised to stay home. If you have nothing essential to do, stay home.)
Residents are still allowed to go out if they are getting groceries, food or medicines while observing social distancing, he added.

they also go on to say that they hope companies give out their 13th month pay early. 13th month pay is a weird thing where you pay your employees an extra month's pay. normally done around December, but with some companies giving half at around June, which is the beginning of the school year. so parents can use it to pay school tuitions for their kids (most schools are private, and even public elementary schools you have to pay for. i remember when we had friends living with us, and a student in their child's class had to leave grade 1 because the parents couldn't pay the tuition), as well as to buy school supplies.

yet the thing is, if most businesses other than banks, grocery stores, restaurant delivery, and pharmacies are closed, how can those businesses afford to pay their 13th month pay early. in fact it raises the question as to why they would have to pay it at all for the year since of course being closed down for a month, or even longer will be a serious hit far a business's earnings. my feeling is that since it is a government mandate, it should be up to the government to pay people's lost wages for the time they are not allowed to work.


n ow i questioned if it is actually happening at all. the information about the curfew is all from early afternoon. but then i see this article put up at 7:54pm. which seems to be saying that no, there is no curfew, it was just a suggestion of the mayors.

Communications Secretary Martin Andanar clarified that Metro Manila will not be placed on curfew for now during the 30-day community quarantine amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak.
In an interview over state-run PTV-4, Andanar said the reported curfew from 8 p.m. to 5 a.m. was just a mere recommendation from the Metro Manila Council (MMC) and was not final.
(The reports are not true),” he said Saturday evening.
(What the MMC wants to happen is to recommend to all local government units to impose a curfew),” he added.
Andanar said Metro Manila LGUs would first have to create their own ordinances–that would take quite some time–before a curfew can be imposed.

news.mb.com.ph...

so i don't know if we are really under curfew or not. this is bad communication from government. they all need to get on the same page as each other. as well as need to be clear on things. just like with the confusion with the lockdown if things like food and supplies can still be brought into the city or not.

originally posted by: Tukota

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
Volusia County FL

Bike week permits were revoked last night
All permits for outdoor events werw also revoked.
New permits are not being looked at.

Schools are in spring break which has been extended to March 30.

FL has called in the national guard, not sure that I will see them.

Last supply run later today, will update.

All news available via google.

they were too late, watch for 2 weeks from now.

My relatives live in Port Orange, FL which I don't think is too far from you. They attended Bike Week each day too. I hope things are going okay there. I was just talking with my husband about the pros and cons of driving to down FL (from MI) and staying in a condo we rent from time-to-time that is on the gulf. It just feels like being by the ocean would be so calming. I envy you your location. So beautiful there. He's all for staying here, hunkered down until we see where this goes in the next couple of weeks.

They are still largely in denial here. I would say your window is closing. Also due to the large.pop of snow birds and elderly, sure to be a hotspot.

If you head down definitely post. PM and I will send you my facebook name, Im covering most of the local news. Back in the day I ran a disaster preparedness website disaster-girl. com- so this is kind of my thing. Always dreamed of being Tommy Lee jones in volcano, or helen hunt in twister. Had lots of babies though so its been sidelined.

UK confirmed now at 1140 up from 798 yesterday.

Link

a reply to: ragiusnotiel
Where are they all flying to? Greenland?

originally posted by: Halfswede

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
These numbers i'm seeing from China just seem unreal. I can't believe they have stemmed it to the very figures they say.

Today its supposedly only 11 new cases whereas there's 13 new deaths, 12,063 active cases? Out of 50 million people alone in Wuhan?? 2 Billion in whole of China? You can't tell me that this virus hasn't spread further in the whole of China with all the movement before Wuhan lockdown.

They haven't but they are probably on the descent climb but its the ascent that's being kept from the world and selfishly too. No humanity the Chinese.

The CCP are certainly lying, but the question is how much. Also, make sure you differentiate the CCP from the Chinese. It is them that have no humanity. There are many good Chinese. The Chinese will much better off when they cast off that filth.

Much of what is going on outside is a manipulated distraction from what is going on there. While there are real cases and disruption outside, I can assure you the focus will return to China and the CCP's situation where the real story is. Hang tight.

To some degree. I have seen an awful lot of things from ordinary Chinese to know what their mentality is like!

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel

originally posted by: Tukota

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
Volusia County FL

Bike week permits were revoked last night
All permits for outdoor events werw also revoked.
New permits are not being looked at.

Schools are in spring break which has been extended to March 30.

FL has called in the national guard, not sure that I will see them.

Last supply run later today, will update.

All news available via google.

they were too late, watch for 2 weeks from now.

My relatives live in Port Orange, FL which I don't think is too far from you. They attended Bike Week each day too. I hope things are going okay there. I was just talking with my husband about the pros and cons of driving to down FL (from MI) and staying in a condo we rent from time-to-time that is on the gulf. It just feels like being by the ocean would be so calming. I envy you your location. So beautiful there. He's all for staying here, hunkered down until we see where this goes in the next couple of weeks.

They are still largely in denial here. I would say your window is closing. Also due to the large.pop of snow birds and elderly, sure to be a hotspot.

If you head down definitely post. PM and I will send you my facebook name, Im covering most of the local news. Back in the day I ran a disaster preparedness website disaster-girl. com- so this is kind of my thing. Always dreamed of being Tommy Lee jones in volcano, or helen hunt in twister. Had lots of babies though so its been sidelined.

Thanks for the information! I have noticed the denial part too. I was texting with them asking about bike week with all of the people and they were just like super chill and 'alls well with the world' attitude. We're down to just texting Meme's now. (rolling my eyes). I'll for sure reach out by PM if we drive down. I'm not worried about staying at the condo so much as all of the rest stops and restaurants between FL and MI. We'll probably end up staying here. Please keep us all informed though about what you're seeing and hearing first-hand (since apparently I can't ask my super chill relatives, LOL!)

Highest rise today in UK at 342 new cases.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

a reply to: DirkDiggler2

I've been wanting to throw our reloader out for years and my husband just said that I would be thanking him for not throwing it out. (assuming we can get the supplies to make them). (We're skeet shooters in case any wonders why I have a reloader.)

originally posted by: Tukota
a reply to: DirkDiggler2

I've been wanting to throw our reloader out for years and my husband just said that I would be thanking him for not throwing it out. (assuming we can get the supplies to make them). (We're skeet shooters in case any wonders why I have a reloader.)

If it makes you feel better, there were lots of reloading supplies on the shelves (primers, projectiles and powder). But the boxed ammo was getting pretty wiped out, except for the 22 and 12 ga.

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Remember they have been heavily poisoned by that system and way of thinking. Brainwashing and fear is not irreversible. There are many that have opened their eyes and rejected those things. I get your point, but we should be careful about painting with a broad brush in many of these situations.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

WHO held out on calling this a Pandemic because of $500 million in "Pandemic Bonds" - I know this was mentioned in past threads but this podcast is GREAT covering recent developments with the outbreak, government/institutional response, etc. Highly, highly encourage you to listen to this if you are able to this weekend, I'm about 45 minutes into it right now.

Start it at 6:05 - here ya go:

a reply to: butcherguy
I was thinking the same thing. It made me pause when I took my partner to the Dr's office and watched the man doing the cleaning. He was moving from one office to another. He had a spray bottle and one dirty looking rag.
The offices did smell clean but so what.
Sometimes he was just dusting off surfaces.
If the virus is present on a surface it will infect those that are already at high risk. Elderly and with underlying health conditions.
And what if he is carrying and spreading before he shows any symptoms.