Corona Virus Updates Part 5

a reply to: clay2 baraka

for domestic needs.

Strange. The article says it's to protected them from becoming infected overseas.

a reply to: Phage

I just read it Phage. I don't think the suppression strategy is a viable option in the US. For starters, it recommends keeping some form of the measures in place for 18 months or until a vaccine could be developed. The starting phase of measures to last for 5 months with adaptive on/off thresholds after that. People can't last 5 days never mind 5 months. Once those periods are over, cases still rise above the capacity of critical care beds anyway. I do agree that if it would work as outlined, the overall infection and death count would be lower, but there's way too many rapidly moving targets and variables.

There's also some fairly generic assumptions...the percentage levels of cooperation for each measure, using analysis of data from China, bed demand calculations, distribution of workplace size and many others. Factor in likely variances in almost all those factors, and you end up with drastically different results.

I'm not sure this model would fit the US either...maybe in highly populated urban areas, but not all of the US.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

And I also find it hard to belief that this virus which appears to be one hell of a tool, is natural.

Why?

If you were tasked with designing a virus that could appear to have come about naturally in order to conduct a depopulation exercise that was both effective in the long and short term ensuring that it prevented the worlds population growing further then this virus has the attributes and characteristics of such a best results wish list tool set. That kills mainly the elderly and the ill and doesn't impact the young too much. It is said that those who have had the virus where it has progressed to the lungs have lung damage which in many cases will probably reduce life expectancy. It is not yet known whether it will re-ignite once it has been in the body. It is said that those recovered can then be re-infected and 2nd infections could be fatal. Apparently it is said to attack the testes because there is a high ABC2 receptor count in the testes which may impact reproduction. One could go on.

I also believe that the numbers in China are a lot higher then they are expecting the world to believe. Based on population size China's death rate without accounting for an exponential factor should be at least 145,000, using Italy as a benchmark having only population of 4% of that of China.

I hope I am wrong but as of this moment I think this came from a lab and is a cocktail BW.

Who is responsible now that's a who dunnit?

The French have been repeating that More than 50% of critical cases are under 60 years of Age.
This hits all agegroups, some are a bit more susceptible than others.

I think this has finally hit the US and UK Govt, that there might not be any immunity after all.
This affects every part of the population.

its up to US, to prevent the spread, by staying away from each other, and killing the spread.
The faster we stay away from each other, and stay away from each other, the faster this will be over.

The only problem, is we are Humans, and many, many of us are particularly "not-bright" (not pointing at you, lol, just generally).

We can beat this, but we all have to pull together.
Anyone not pulling, will pull the rest down with them.
Sad but true.
Just have to hope that we get through this without too much panic.

a reply to: peter_kandra

I don't think the suppression strategy is a viable option in the US.

Do you think mitigation is more viable? Or do you have something else in mind?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

You have provided no reason for it not to be natural.

Based on population size China's death rate without accounting for an exponential factor should be at least 145,000, using Italy as a benchmark having only population of 4% of that of China.

China took extreme isolation measures and increased their medical capacity. Italy did not. There are indications that infections started in Italy months before they were recognized.

My reason is the nature of the beast and its operandi. Its clever, evasive, contagious, asympt, etc. Just as if it had been designed fit for a particular purpose covering the necessary angles to get the job done with longevity in mind whilst passing for natural! Also because China has hidden the truth!

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: clay2 baraka

for domestic needs.

Strange. The article says it's to protected them from becoming infected overseas.

Yup, that is what it says..

If I were a leader facing a crisis like what's coming, I would want my skilled specialists redeployed domestically..

a reply to: Brick17I'm interested in these passes you are making reference to. The reason being I'm in the Army, located in the North UK. The location where I am stationed performs a particular critical defence function. So that element of my location will soon go into 'clean quarantine'. We don't have masses of personnel. The remainder will be stood down (some have been detailed for various Ops if needed) but many, like me will remain in support of the critical defence asset but separate from the 'clean quarantine'. I and many others have to commute every day, no passes for us and nothing on any brief I have been given so far. I'm not trying to be rude or in your face but I am questioning this. None of my wider circle of friends in other locations have even mentioned 'key worker' passes.

I can only tell you what I was told. Boss was a bit vague about it, didn't tell me much aside from "probably won't happen". I have since been in touch with friends in other care/nursing homes (in same town) and no one else has heard of it so I don't blame you for questioning it.
I get/got the impression our bosses are being told things that aren't yet out in general public. Our place is owned by some very wealthy people who own other businesses in Britain and abroad.
Our food order has been tripled, so it's not just ordinary individuals who are overbuying. Could be they are overbuying because of the effects of other people overbuying (they are worried about food stocks running low).
Will keep you posted if I can find out more, hopefully it's some kind of worst case scenario thing.
How it happened today was myself and a coworker were asked how we spell our surnames, when we asked why that was the explanation given.

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Its clever, evasive, contagious, asympt, etc.

No more so than any many other infectious diseases. The main thing that makes it dangerous is that there is little, if any immunity to it because it is new. But that is not unique either.

"Clever?"

Actor Daniel Dae Kim, from TV show "Lost" fame, gives his account (video) regarding the symptoms he experienced after testing positive for covid-19.

source

Hi everyone- yesterday I was diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. Looks like I’ll be ok, but I wanted share my journey with you in the hopes that you find it informative or helpful. Hope you all stay safe, calm, and above all, healthy.

He got infected in New York city while filming a tv show about a flu pandemic. No kidding. He now has self-isolated in his home in Hawaii.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: MrRCflying

I read somewhere that a lot of the new cases in NY are in one Hasidic Jewish community in Brooklyn, so it may be a case of close community contact facilitating an outbreak in a concentrated community. The thing is that something like that is unlikely to spread far beyond itself unlike the South Korean cult.

I don't think Hasidic Jews necessarily circulate too closely with the wider world.

Well this is VERY BAD then, because I am very familiar with these people in NY. They have another community, Kiryas Joel, about 50 miles north of Brooklyn, and many of these people travel back and forth between NYC and Kiryas Joel frequently. The small town of Monroe is nearby, and many residents there travel back and forth to NYC and NJ for work daily. The hasidic jews of that area are very much involved in the diamond district, the meat and fish markets in the Bronx, textiles...

Furthermore, is the issue of MEDICAL CARE for these people. They are an isolated group, don't use hospitals that aren't their own, and the hospitals they have a very inadequate. Orange, Rockland, Westchester counties are very densely populated suburbs that are in between NYC and Kiryas Joel. This area will be heavily affected.

NYC will become our ITALY very soon. California right behind them. We should know soon just how much NOTHINGBURGER this virus is.../Sarc

These numbers are from memory, so might be off. (I need to get back to working.)

Rough calcs based on NY State response plannning said they need 10x more ICU beds and 3x more resperators.

With the Quinine hydrochloride studies saying it reduces hospital stay from 28-42 days to 6 days, that means NY state already has 70% of the ICU beds needed, instead of 10%.

Adding 30% of ICU beds in 2 weeks sounds pretty doable! This is making me feel a lot better.

originally posted by: Oleman
These numbers are from memory, so might be off. (I need to get back to working.)

Rough calcs based on NY State response plannning said they need 10x more ICU beds and 3x more resperators.

With the Quinine hydrochloride studies saying it reduces hospital stay from 28-42 days to 6 days, that means NY state already has 70% of the ICU beds needed, instead of 10%.

That will be good in 6 months to a year when they clear this drug for use with COVID

It is terrifying to see all those young people partying on the beaches in the US, nobody worried about the virus. In some regions in Europe, northern Italy, esatern France, doctors have to decide who is going to live and who is going to die because the hospitals are over run, not enough equipment, no more masks, ... heavy treatment, patients must be put in artificial coma. Another problem is that doctors and nurses also get infected, so less people to run the hospital. And it is only the begining!

a reply to: judoka

Roger.

If anything like that does occur I'd imagine it would be (ideally) a national thing, by that I mean a standard form/pass we (MOD) could access via our MODNET and then print locally. Unless it was locally produced by the CIVPOL or somebody. Most health care workers, NHS etc carry blue light cards. All forces personnel have our ID cards so would not need one. Just thinking out aloud.

There are not enough personnel to lock down the country, not enough personnel to police it. Unless only certain areas, routes, access points were chosen. In any event the Ops/contingency plans are meant to free up the emergency services to do their jobs and increase their manpower, not to work along side them or replace them. Although there are Ops/plans to step up and work alongside, that's not what is happening just now. It is all about supporting the civil services and civil infrastructure (for example releasing police from power station sites to bolster police manpower and military replacing them at their site and drivers/escorts for distribution for stores, food/rations, etc etc. None of that involves me though or the location where I am. I get to remain and carry out my role in support of the 'clean quarantine' asset on location. It is very busy where I am but only in the respect of the role we are carrying out. Our routine has changed and manpower is down.

Stay safe and look after yourself.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: peter_kandra

I don't think the suppression strategy is a viable option in the US.

Do you think mitigation is more viable? Or do you have something else in mind?

I don't think there's a one size fits the whole country approach. I just don't believe the suppression approach will work for the whole country. My dad is in a physical rehab facility in a San Francisco suburb. It's locked down until May 8th. He's 77, so definitely in a high risk category and I agree with the lock down. Six or seven counties in that area are also in some sort of lock down. NJ/NY and CT are also in one as are other areas. I live in Georgia, and other than the closing of schools and courts/town hall meetings, etc. most places are still open...some with changes in operating hours.

I think the more heavily populated urban areas would benefit from an almost total lock down. 2 weeks on and 2 weeks off. Adjust as needed. Unfortunately it would be almost impossible to enforce, and then there's the logistics nightmare of making sure everyone has enough food and medicine.

There are plenty of areas of the US where social distancing happens normally because the town may only have 347 people.
No reason that mitigation couldn't be utilized in those areas.

There are arguments for either approach, and frankly both come at astronomical costs in both lives and financially.
I do hope that whatever potential medical solutions are arrived at are shared freely around the world and not hoarded.

Sean Peyton, Head coach of the saints has tested positive.

saints

Prince Albert II of Monaco is positive.

Lopinivir washes out in a trial, and a discussion on whether or not NSAIDS are a good idea.

a reply to: peter_kandra

Being the United States, it is at this point, up to each state to decide what measures are appropriate for them.

As is stands here, there are 16 known cases in the state with all being travel related. Hawaii is adopting what the federal government recommends. I am in agreement, our hospitals are not equipped for a rapid influx of patients. Early action is highly important.

I've been keeping a daily record of changes to the stats/map of spread since about the 24th of Feb. I've put it together in a video, so I thought I'd share. The ending is just a reminder of the BBC show from the late 70s about just this very thing... I hope that it doesn't come down to "survivors". The TV loves to scare you.