Corona Virus Updates Part 4

a reply to: clay2 baraka

Yes it's a fine balance. With the panic buying going on various places it's clear where this heading, lack of of faith in goverment will also be a precursor to economic collapse. As they say # is getting real.

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
Costco in my city have been wiped out by people prepping. I went there this afternoon and it was way worse than anytime from Nov through Xmas. I couldn’t even park in the parking lot. Had to drop wife to shop and retreat to Starbucks with my sons. It took my wife three hours due to the lines. She said many many normal things we would buy are cleaned out and people were buying 2 and 3 of. It was borderline insane, my sister saw people fighting in the Costco parking lot near her over a parking space.

I’m strongly considering beginning to carry my sidearm and may pick up extra ammo after what I saw today. May need to teach wife to shoot properly earlier than I’d like.

surely you read my post about the chinese beating up old japanese women and men to take away their box of masks they just waited in line to buy

this stuff you are feeling is real, "remember people snap " in times of frustrations

originally posted by: musicismagic

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
Costco in my city have been wiped out by people prepping. I went there this afternoon and it was way worse than anytime from Nov through Xmas. I couldn’t even park in the parking lot. Had to drop wife to shop and retreat to Starbucks with my sons. It took my wife three hours due to the lines. She said many many normal things we would buy are cleaned out and people were buying 2 and 3 of. It was borderline insane, my sister saw people fighting in the Costco parking lot near her over a parking space.

I’m strongly considering beginning to carry my sidearm and may pick up extra ammo after what I saw today. May need to teach wife to shoot properly earlier than I’d like.

surely you read my post about the chinese beating up old japanese women and men to take away their box of masks they just waited in line to buy

this stuff you are feeling is real, "remember people snap " in times of frustrations

Comparing cultures, say Japanese and American I'd rather be in Japan for this looming disaster.

a reply to: musicismagic

What do the shelves look like in Japan now ?? I have been paying attention to lots of items this last month , and I’ve noticed people are starting to prep. The panic isn’t there yet in America , but some people are quietly buying the important items.

Big chain stores also seem to be strategically placing items that would be wanted and needed in a pandemic , in center of aisles .

originally posted by: Mark98SS

originally posted by: TheGoondockSaint
So some of my liberal friends are posting on Facebook that the fatality rate of coronavirus virus is approximately 2-3% and that influenza is around 0.1%. Can anyone help me figure out if this is true or not? They usually post liberal BS from fake websites so I want to put them in their place if I can get something help.

I've been following this for a couple months & yes the rate is 2-3%. Here in suburban Washington DC area I went to the supermarket Friday & stocked up on non perishables, shelves were not sold out save for hand sanitizers. The government has really messed up the initial response & IMO is not telling us the truth.

We've been out of sanitizer in Portland OR for days..

Here is what I put together last night from easily obtainable ingredients purchased from Rite Aid. The clerk gave me a weird look about the Aloe and asked if I was "preparing for the apocalypse" (aloe keeps the hands from drying out and cracking from the alcohol). The blue bottle is a silicone travel bottle to store it in.

It feels and smells just like Purell after you mix and apply it..

just a reminder: EXTREMES TIMES REQUIRE EXTREME MEASURES

the chain reaction of a "stand still" economy is now in the working Tokyo time : 1:30 pm Sunday March 1, 2020

The above I 'm classifying as what I call "street talk", and the reason is , well... seems much of this street talk has been proven to pan out by my concise posting of facts that have occurred .

People, this is no game now. When the PM of Japan can go on national TV and basically say "we are all fk'd" not his real words, but the empty shelves today here in my town will explain what he really meant to say in English and yes, Abe speaks pretty good English.

Going to repeat myself a little bit here for anyone new to the thread.

The true case fatality rate (CFR) for coronavirus is being covered up.

Two more realistic estimates I've seen are.

107 / (107 + 501) = 17.6% CFR (outside of mainland China)

www.worldometers.info...

Averaging over all confirmed case ages, the estimated overall confirmed-CFR was approximately 33%

The second estimate (above) is from this study.

2019-nCoV: preliminary estimates of the confirmed-case-fatality-ratio and infection-fatality-ratio, and initial pandemic risk assessment

Mike Famulare (Institute for Disease Modeling)

v2.0: substantive revision 19 February 2020. (v1.1 February 4; v1.0 January 31.)

institutefordiseasemodeling

It uses the Kaplan-Meier method. The first estimate uses the simple accurate method outlined below.

Our analyses show that two methods—the simple estimate of the case fatality ratio calculated for those whose outcome is known and the modified Kaplan-Meier method—adequately estimated the case fatality ratio during the SARS epidemic. 

academic.oup.com...

Who's January estimate of CFR 2% is deliberately misleading.

It is calculated by this method, deaths/cases.

Very innacurate because it doesn't take into account those who are still sick and may die, patients with an unknown outcome.

(Btw if you use the inaccurate method for current numbers it's now at CFR 3.5%)

The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.
Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients

www.worldometers.info...

This ratio is often estimated by using aggregate numbers of cases and deaths at a single time point, such as those compiled daily by the World Health Organization during the course of the SARS epidemic (5). However, simple estimates of the case fatality ratio obtained from these reports can be misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a nonnegligible proportion of patients

academic.oup.com...

Early crude estimates of the confirmed-CFR based on the ratio of confirmed cases to reported deaths are hovering around 2-3 percent, but this naive calculation is incorrect because it does not account for the time required from symptom onset, case confirmation, and death. 

institutefordiseasemodeling

An age fatality graph using the Kaplan-Meier method.


institutefordiseasemodeling

Now I don't know these numbers are correct but the methodology seems sound. I do know the WHO estimate is junk, that's obvious, so the actual CFR number is higher than WHO says.

Maybe the real number is somewhere in between these two extremes. Even then, the consequences of the virus could be much worse than they are telling the public.

originally posted by: elitegamer23
a reply to: musicismagic

What do the shelves look like in Japan now ?? I have been paying attention to lots of items this last month , and I’ve noticed people are starting to prep. The panic isn’t there yet in America , but some people are quietly buying the important items.

Big chain stores also seem to be strategically placing items that would be wanted and needed in a pandemic , in center of aisles .

you know being a foreigner I might just be able to get away with taking pictures inside the stores, might also get arrested too, what do you think i should do, because I do want people to see the direction America is heading in.
Personally it is the weekend now, America will soon wake up to what it is meant " stay at home". Remember if it can happen in Japan which the press here so far are on top of the best "true" reporting in the world, its got to happen in America also. Give America about ... days OK I left it blank, I'm not a person who sees what the future will become, but my post are based on events that happen and proven to have happen.

a reply to: primalfractal

It's not looking good the spike in numbers is alarming..

originally posted by: TheGoondockSaint
So some of my liberal friends are posting on Facebook that the fatality rate of coronavirus virus is approximately 2-3% and that influenza is around 0.1%. Can anyone help me figure out if this is true or not? They usually post liberal BS from fake websites so I want to put them in their place if I can get something help.

Their math is subjective and it is also going on subjective data. There were 3.7 million flu cases in the US last year and around 1,300 deaths caused. Corvid 19 has not yet reached critical mass for fatality rates to be realistic yet.

If 2 people get the same virus and 1 of them die is it fair to say the virus caries a 50% probability of death? No, that would be irrational which is what your liberal friends are being.

Tell them that until we have a large enough data set and know the specifics around the victims who died i.e. age, previous health, etc. then making obtuse claims such as they are is nothing more than fear mongering.

Yes, Corvid -19 is serious and is likely to get much worse but it's too soon to tell just yet.

originally posted by: TheGoondockSaint
So some of my liberal friends are posting on Facebook that the fatality rate of coronavirus virus is approximately 2-3% and that influenza is around 0.1%. Can anyone help me figure out if this is true or not? They usually post liberal BS from fake websites so I want to put them in their place if I can get something help.

You can google the flu stats and then go to any coronavirus stat site to get the current numbers and do the math. Your liberal friends are right. I've done this very thing.... unless you don't believe in math... they are right.

China orders destruction of virus related government documents.

Exclusive by @dajiyuan: Health Commission in #Liaoning Province orders to have #COVID19 related documents destroyed. Officials required to sign a Confidentiality Guarantee statement. Many offices already destroyed documents.

Jennifer Zeng Twitter

Now why would the CCP order this?

Content of Confidentiality Guarantee statement: 1. immediately destroy the data files retained in storage devices such as computers, USB flash drives, mobile phones, as well as photos, recorded text and other information.

Cover up.

Dead bodies in courtyard in Wuhan

Jennifer Zeng Twitter

originally posted by: pasiphae

originally posted by: TheGoondockSaint
So some of my liberal friends are posting on Facebook that the fatality rate of coronavirus virus is approximately 2-3% and that influenza is around 0.1%. Can anyone help me figure out if this is true or not? They usually post liberal BS from fake websites so I want to put them in their place if I can get something help.

You can google the flu stats and then go to any coronavirus stat site to get the current numbers and do the math. Your liberal friends are right. I've done this very thing.... unless you don't believe in math... they are right.

It's disingenuous to spread this as fact and is nothing more than fear mongering. There is no where near enough data yet to arrive at a realistic fatality rate. There are so many factors to take into consideration. If 2 people get the same virus and 1 of them dies is it logical to say the fatality rate of that virus is 50% ? No. That is illogical and you need a much larger data set.

a reply to: clay2 baraka

Also to follow up. While I am planning on taking precautions, I also know due to the nature of my employment I'll probably contract the virus.

I have begun stocking the following:

Food

Electrolyte drinks and supplements

Anti-inflammatory supplements (turmeric). This helps lower the cytokine response..

Mucous relief medication. (for the pneumonia).

originally posted by: elitegamer23

originally posted by: pasiphae

originally posted by: primalfractal
Some data to help get rid of the "its like the flu" comparisons.

Keep hearing seasonal flu CFR is .1%, it is not.

If anyone who says that actually checked, most of the snippets that pop up in search say < 0.1%.

That's less than 1%. So what is it actually?

In percentage terms, 0.05% of those who’ve had flu this season in the United States (based on the figures above) have died from it.

www.weforum.org...

And this is during a year with an epidemic of influenza. It includes the more virulent epidemic forms which are not reffered to as regular flu. As an example swine flu has a CFR of .02%. "Regular flu" is CFR .01% or lower.

So using the CFR 3% rate for corona (very conservative ) and the CFR .05% number for all influenza in the US so far this year.

Coronavirus is 60x more deadly than the flu.

Yes.... this needs more attention. I've been looking at the math for weeks now and it's not a pretty picture. DEFINITELY NOT like the flu. Spanish flu maybe....

Haven’t you been paying attention?
Everyone in the know who says it’s like the flu cough while mumbling “ spanish”, before they say flu.

The best way to prevent a panic is to compare it to “ the seasonal flu “. I can’t remember people wearing biohazard suits , going into quarantine , or disinfecting the air and sidewalks from the season flu .

Kind of confused about what you are saying to me? Maybe read what I was replying to.... You might have misunderstood. I was saying this is like the Spanish flu.. not the regular flu we are all not that afraid of.

Coronavirus crisis: COVID-19 claims first Australian victim in WA

A Perth man has become the first person in Australia to die from the coronavirus.

Western Australia’s Chief Health Officer Dr Andrew Robertson on Sunday confirmed the 78-year-old man, who has not been named, died at Perth’s Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital in the early hours of the morning.

The man and his wife contracted COVID-19 onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship. His wife, who is also in her 70s, was diagnosed with the virus a few days ago and is in a stable condition in hospital.

Wow! When did we hit 71!

a reply to: SpartanStoic

Sure that looks like a pretty normal way to deal with the flu.

a reply to: SpartanStoic

Why indeed? Couldn’t be that their lemming-like data wouldn’t fit the pictures. The data that shows this thing completely caput? Those pictures and audio taken by Chinese people....

Ya know the one’s worth a 1000 deaths, er words per jpg?

Edit: Trumps right. Xi HAS “been working very very hard”

This thing is gonna explode in the US. We can’t even properly identify the deceased, let alone coordinate a press release. How the F#%K do we have any confidence at all, no matter who is at the helm, is beyond me...

Thailand recorded the country's first coronavirus death, health officials confirmed.

www.jpost.com...

Thailand is the world's 6th most prepared country with the ability to fight a pandemic; ranked just below Canada..