Corona Virus Updates Part 4

a reply to: musicismagic

try 42 bucks a barrel by this Tuesday.

Already there this afternoon. WTI around US$41..Brent hovering US$45.00 and OPEC B Held near US$52...

The "true" or 'mean Q1 demand' is so far off we don't have real creditable figures; even placing the black market as a variable no longer makes sense. Demand world wide is off by damn 17% (reality) or 20% to 22% if you read alarmist papers/articles...(that 3% to 5% point stretch is a big number btw)...that said, petrochemicals are used in almost every facet if medicine:

Petrochemicals are used to manufacture analgesics, antihistamines, antibiotics, antibacterials, rectal suppositories, cough syrups, lubricants, creams, ointments, salves, and many gels. Processed plastics made with oil are used in heart valves and other esoteric medical equipment. Petrochemicals are used in radiological dyes and films, intravenous tubing, syringes, and oxygen masks. In all but rare instances, fossil fuels heat and cool buildings and supply electricity. Ambulances and helicopter “life flights” depend on petroleum, as do personnel who travel to and from medical workplaces in motor vehicles. Supplies and equipment are shipped

Orion Magazine

Demand dropped by very large amounts. For the 'Peak Oil" folks here years ago and did not quite get 'it'..and oil is a 'glut' product currently...

Looking at supply and runs...review it this way I suppose, "The demand for all potable drinking water fell 15% in one month"...did people stop drinking water? Use a solid thought process...

mg

Perfect ..thank you.
a reply to: Fowlerstoad

originally posted by: missed_gear
a reply to: musicismagic

try 42 bucks a barrel by this Tuesday.

Already there this afternoon. WTI around US$41..Brent hovering US$45.00 and OPEC B Held near US$52...

The "true" or 'mean Q1 demand' is so far off we don't have real creditable figures; even placing the black market as a variable no longer makes sense. Demand world wide is off by damn 17% (reality) or 20% to 22% if you read alarmist papers/articles...(that 3% to 5% point stretch is a big number btw)...that said, petrochemicals are used in almost every facet if medicine:

Petrochemicals are used to manufacture analgesics, antihistamines, antibiotics, antibacterials, rectal suppositories, cough syrups, lubricants, creams, ointments, salves, and many gels. Processed plastics made with oil are used in heart valves and other esoteric medical equipment. Petrochemicals are used in radiological dyes and films, intravenous tubing, syringes, and oxygen masks. In all but rare instances, fossil fuels heat and cool buildings and supply electricity. Ambulances and helicopter “life flights” depend on petroleum, as do personnel who travel to and from medical workplaces in motor vehicles. Supplies and equipment are shipped

Orion Magazine

Demand dropped by very large amounts. For the 'Peak Oil" folks here years ago and did not quite get 'it'..and oil is a 'glut' product currently...

Looking at supply and runs...review it this way I suppose, "The demand for all potable drinking water fell 15% in one month"...did people stop drinking water? Use a solid thought process...

mg

you will see imports of oil at port of entry that have industry making medicines from oil not changing too much. I live in a shipping port that has the oil tanks (storage) and currently our only problem is with the crew members that may be infected when coming to port. So far we have restrictions in place. The details vary from port to port, but I don't think entrance passes/visas are given at the moment. Japan also is a leading chem of pharmacitcals (sp) so I don't think the western world has too much to worry about at this time and generics here are as common as the sushi bars

a reply to: 38181


Yup....i mentioned the airport to my husband when all this kicked off. It's cheaper for domestic flights than Columbia airport, so it's used by a lot in this area. I 10000% expected to see cases out of Columbia at any time, never dreamed we'd be the first.

Of course, i work in Columbia....at a manufacturing plant, that has quite the presence in Asia, therefore plenty of Asian visitors in the plant. And our employees traveling there. The thought that I'd been spreading it has run through my mind. We've had quite a bit of 'flu like' issues going around at work. One coworker was hospitalized over Christmas with pneumonia. And told after to stay home/ no visitors for 2 weeks.

a reply to: musicismagic

Correct. The outsourcing started many months ago; now with this scare and 'becoming innovative and self reliant' brought many homecomings in a very short period. Just ebb and flow of industries, we (US international businesses) were fairly over China not long ago just working through exits; this will be the nail.

Covid19 has placed China in a corner..or fully intention by the Host State.

China's only commodity to produce positive GDP was labor by a large fraction. China is US$5.5 Trillion in debt, buying debt acting big for face but broke.

Perhaps, China found a way to distract and fade persons. 2mil muslims in 'rehab camps', organ harvesting from prisoners or on market, stealing of patented intellectual properties, cheating on offshore drilling using directionals....what a wonderful country...and...

Shadow banking is a known fact, local State debts are hidden...on and on...most economists and financiers use 3.1 times the reported debt as an indicator.

I am beginning to sense, China is trying to get a clean slate and bury ghosts for free off this crisis.


mg

I'm going to stop updating the daily numbers for Benelux, everyone can peek on a health map to follow up on those and everyone is more interested in his own area anyway.

Over here we are running out of ingredients to do the virus tests. Some virologists are saying that to keep testing is pointless at this point and are calling to stop with it.
We started seeing a lot of community spread since yesterday, people have no idea how they got the virus.
Doctors of all kinds say that the best remedy is to self-isolate when feeling sick and only go to the hospital when you have difficulty breathing.

Is that a general thing worldwide?

originally posted by: KindraLaBelle
I'm going to stop updating the daily numbers for Benelux, everyone can peek on a health map to follow up on those and everyone is more interested in his own area anyway.

Over here we are running out of ingredients to do the virus tests. Some virologists are saying that to keep testing is pointless at this point and are calling to stop with it.
We started seeing a lot of community spread since yesterday, people have no idea how they got the virus.
Doctors of all kinds say that the best remedy is to self-isolate when feeling sick and only go to the hospital when you have difficulty breathing.

Is that a general thing worldwide?

No, where I live everyone is treating it as a joke, since the toilet roll scare at least anyways.

a reply to: deccal

I do not know all the mumbo jumbo pertaining to definitions in the field of disease and viruses, but i personally would look at and care about deaths vs recovered, since that actually shows who gets over it. And since certain diseases can have a longer incubation period, or may take longer to kill, simply deaths compared to cases can skew numbers into making some viruses/diseases look less harmful than they are.

But as I said, I dont know why they use the equation that they do, but when it comes to this virus, especially with some of the bad news we are hearing about long term effects, i think such numbers give a false sense of security/downplay the possible long term severity of specific viruses/diseases. And due to this, the south korean numbers dont relieve me of much concern.

originally posted by: deccal
It seems that real mortality rate will ve lower than %1
mobile.twitter.com...

S Korea has been doing extensive testing, even doing drive thru testing. Because of this, they are catching it early were as other countries are testing mainly when a patient is showing symptoms, when the virus has been present for some time and already has a good foot hold.
You really need to look at the critical/recovered numbers to get a perspective of were this virus is at in S Korea.
I'd venture to say that the death rate in S Korea will start to escalate this coming week, unfortunately.

originally posted by: Village Idiot

originally posted by: deccal
It seems that real mortality rate will ve lower than %1
mobile.twitter.com...

S Korea has been doing extensive testing, even doing drive thru testing. Because of this, they are catching it early were as other countries are testing mainly when a patient is showing symptoms, when the virus has been present for some time and already has a good foot hold.
You really need to look at the critical/recovered numbers to get a perspective of were this virus is at in S Korea.
I'd venture to say that the death rate in S Korea will start to escalate this coming week, unfortunately.

so far in japan it is 2 deaths per 100 infected, just thought I'd let you all know

a reply to: musicismagic
Japan has been dealing with this virus for well over a month now, would it be fair to say the 2% death rate is over a balance of ages, healthy people and those with underlying ailments?

originally posted by: Village Idiot
a reply to: musicismagic
Japan has been dealing with this virus for well over a month now, would it be fair to say the 2% death rate is over a balance of ages, healthy people and those with underlying ailments?

So far it has hit ages in the uppers 50's and above, but currently some under that age now are on respirators ( this was reported, the mist that helps those on asthma seems to be helping, some patients after 3 days of treatment are now eating), thought I'd pass that along, not sure if that is a cure yet, but much news about it and I now 2 threads here on the virus had mentioned something of that nature also, so we might hear a lot more about it soon.

originally posted by: slatesteam
a reply to: new_here

Was there a timetable given?

Good question. I'm gonna post a link to one of the slides. That has the following phrase: "Community epi wave 2 months" (I don't know what an epi wavi is, does anyone else? Epidemic wave?)

LINK

An Italian politician, Nicola Zingaretti, has tested positive. He is the president of Lazio region and secretary of the PD party...

2 dead in Florida
www.baynews9.com...


The Florida Department of Health said the two people who died were in their 70s and had traveled overseas. The announcement raises the U.S. death toll from the novel coronavirus strain to 16, including 13 in the state of Washington and one in California.

One of the Florida deaths was that of a man with underlying health issues in Santa Rosa County in Florida’s Panhandle, according to the statement. The health department added that the second death was that of an elderly person in Lee County, in the Fort Myers area.

a reply to: new_here

You nailed it:

An epidemic wave is a graph which traces the development of an epidemic over time and/or space.

originally posted by: musicismagic

So far it has hit ages in the uppers 50's and above, but currently some under that age now are on respirators ( this was reported, the mist that helps those on asthma seems to be helping, some patients after 3 days of treatment are now eating), thought I'd pass that along, not sure if that is a cure yet, but much news about it and I now 2 threads here on the virus had mentioned something of that nature also, so we might hear a lot more about it soon.

Well that certainly is interesting about asthma medicine, in Australia we have a product called Bysolvin which basically loosens up phlegm and mucus in the lungs during colds and flu, and it works extremely well.

Is there anywhere reliable where we can see a breakdown in ages? especially for Italy?
I think age breakdown and location is invaluable data at this point
a reply to: Nucleardoom

originally posted by: SuziSurrey
Perfect ..thank you.
a reply to: Fowlerstoad

I've added a couple of links to "how to" guide for Hand sanitizer in my signature at the bottom of my post, if it will help.

Todays update :
Went to the local supermarket (saturday mornings are pretty packed usually, so was this one).
Almost no TP at all lol

I got some more cat food.
Didn't see people piling up TP or anything, they might've hit last night on the way back from work.

Lots of people buying lots of stuff though.
Didn't get as far as the water bottles, so can't comment on that.

edit : From the Live feed today, at 13h50 :
Three people of the RATP (Public Transport system in Paris) have been confirmed with the virus.
Two of them are Bus drivers, or at least, from the same bus driver centre.

www.20minutes.fr...




edit2 : BBC Live feed at 11h12 :
South Korean Flats sealed off after multiple cases in both buildings.

www.bbc.com...

originally posted by: cirrus12
Is there anywhere reliable where we can see a breakdown in ages? especially for Italy?
I think age breakdown and location is invaluable data at this point
a reply to: Nucleardoom

Can't find age specific breakdown for Italy, but found this:

Italy’s large elderly population bearing brunt of coronavirus

From the link:

“Italy is a country of old people,” said Prof Massimo Galli, the director of infectious diseases at Sacco hospital in Milan. “The elderly with previous pathologies are notoriously numerous here. I think this could explain why we are seeing more serious cases of coronavirus here, which I repeat, in the vast majority of cases start mildly and cause few problems, especially in young people and certainly in children.

It's hitting the elderly there bad.