Corona Virus Updates Part 4

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2

originally posted by: MrRCflying
I just noticed that the percentage of recovery vs. infected has switched again. For the last two weeks, give or take, the percentage of recovered has been going up, while the percentage of infections going down. Yesterday it was like 56.5% recovered. Now it is showing 55% recovered.

That can only mean the spread is speeding up again, and people are catching it faster than those already infected can recover.

Not good news, as that means we will have more active infections at any one time. You can't move people out of hospital beds fast enough to make room for new infections.

covid19info.live...

Its not so much the spread is speeding it up, in France at least they are finding new clusters of cases.
More cases are being discovered, and tests are coming back, I would think, 8-24h after the test.
And that delay will just get longer, the more cases there are.

Ok, maybe I phased that wrong. The number of confirmed cases is going up faster again, compared to the number of recovered. Bringing down the recovered percentage.

Either way, I don't think it is a good sign.

From BBC Live Feed at 20h09 :

www.bbc.com...

Canada confirms first case of "Community" Coronavirus spread.

originally posted by: MrRCflying
That can only mean the spread is speeding up again, and people are catching it faster than those already infected can recover.
covid19info.live...

My theory is that the symptoms peaking, after an average of 14 days is overlapping with the convalescence period of another 14 days. This, I think, will produce the phenomenon of high numbers of infected with the yet-to-recover.

I see it like the theory of high density traffic on motorways/highways, with vehicles at standstill and others at full speed in a relatively short stretch of road. A constant speed can fix the problem. Thus, a constant infection (acceleration) and recovery (braking) would make the virus spread more predictably; it would be easier to say, with any certainty, if the virus was out of control or being contained.

What I can't fit into the theory is the death rate... it's akin to roadkill, very unpredictable.

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2

originally posted by: MrRCflying
I just noticed that the percentage of recovery vs. infected has switched again. For the last two weeks, give or take, the percentage of recovered has been going up, while the percentage of infections going down. Yesterday it was like 56.5% recovered. Now it is showing 55% recovered.

That can only mean the spread is speeding up again, and people are catching it faster than those already infected can recover.

Not good news, as that means we will have more active infections at any one time. You can't move people out of hospital beds fast enough to make room for new infections.

covid19info.live...

Its not so much the spread is speeding it up, in France at least they are finding new clusters of cases.
More cases are being discovered, and tests are coming back, I would think, 8-24h after the test.
And that delay will just get longer, the more cases there are.

Ok, maybe I phased that wrong. The number of confirmed cases is going up faster again, compared to the number of recovered. Bringing down the recovered percentage.

Either way, I don't think it is a good sign.

No, its not a good sign.
I'm glad to be off for the next week, being in Europe.
We'll just have to see how it develops, but this next week will be key.

TP scare has apparently hit Britain (Sainsbury's in Beaconsfield, Bucks. to be precise)

From the BBC Live Feed 20h18 :

www.bbc.com...

edit : This is what most reminds me of "Idiocracy" the Movie.


They'll all die off when the Bottled water runs out...

a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

deleted

3 new cases in California. 2 are former passengers on the "Grand Princess". Do they mean Diamond Princess, or is this another ship?

Are passengers of the Diamond Princess still in quarantine?

originally posted by: MonkeyBalls2
TP scare has apparently hit Britain (Sainsbury's in Beaconsfield, Bucks. to be precise)

From the BBC Live Feed 20h18 :

www.bbc.com...

I always want to see the brighter side of things. As an adolescent in the 80s, I worked for Sainsbury for three years. Once a week we had to empty the shelves in order to do a deep clean, which was a royal pain because they had to refill everything afterwards. The staff of that Sainsbury's don't know how lucky they are. The customers empty the shelves, staff cleans and it's off early to the pub because there's no stock left to display. Genius!

Sorry for the deviation, the picture brought back fond memories I felt like sharing.

Deleted

originally posted by: MrRCflying
3 new cases in California. 2 are former passengers on the "Grand Princess". Do they mean Diamond Princess, or is this another ship?

Are passengers of the Diamond Princess still in quarantine?

Different cruise chip...off the coast of California I believe.

originally posted by: MrRCflying
3 new cases in California. 2 are former passengers on the "Grand Princess". Do they mean Diamond Princess, or is this another ship?

Are passengers of the Diamond Princess still in quarantine?

Its the cruise liner off California.
Just back from Hawaii, after previous docking at San Francisco iirc.
A few people off the boat previously, are now sick.
in short.

originally posted by: malektaus
a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

you really think the utilities are gonna be shut off? do you think that this will be an the end of society?

Let's look at it this way.

Some estimates have put world wide infection to be 60-80%. I think this is high, but let's say 40%. You have 40% of your workforce out, not all at once, but say 10% at a time. Others will be skipping out of work to stay home, or in quarantine, unable to come to work.

Will utilities be able to function with say 25-40% reduction in workforce? Not sure.

Honestly, I don't see it happening, but you can't rule it out either.

originally posted by: JoeRivers

originally posted by: MrRCflying
3 new cases in California. 2 are former passengers on the "Grand Princess". Do they mean Diamond Princess, or is this another ship?

Are passengers of the Diamond Princess still in quarantine?

Different cruise chip...off the coast of California I believe.

Ah... Okay, how many princesses are there roaming the seas? LOL

a reply to: NxNWest

We did it!

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: JoeRivers

originally posted by: MrRCflying
3 new cases in California. 2 are former passengers on the "Grand Princess". Do they mean Diamond Princess, or is this another ship?

Are passengers of the Diamond Princess still in quarantine?

Different cruise chip...off the coast of California I believe.

Ah... Okay, how many princesses are there roaming the seas? LOL

Here you go!

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: malektaus
a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

you really think the utilities are gonna be shut off? do you think that this will be an the end of society?

Let's look at it this way.

Some estimates have put world wide infection to be 60-80%. I think this is high, but let's say 40%. You have 40% of your workforce out, not all at once, but say 10% at a time. Others will be skipping out of work to stay home, or in quarantine, unable to come to work.

Will utilities be able to function with say 25-40% reduction in workforce? Not sure.

Honestly, I don't see it happening, but you can't rule it out either.

I keep a supply of potable water in my basement, about 80 gallons.
Why do I keep it there?
My water supply was off once due to an earthquake rupturing a water main in the middle of the winter.... In Pennsylvania!
I didn't store water back then, and I really wish that I had. We were melting snow just to flush our toilets. Do you know how much snow you have to melt to flush a toilet? Our water was off for close to a week.

I have no idea if the virus will get bad enough to affect the utilities, I don't expect it to, but I will be ready if it does.

a reply to: CrazeeWorld777

That's the same individual as was first reported to have experienced this. It isn't "another" case.

originally posted by: Encia22

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: JoeRivers

originally posted by: MrRCflying
3 new cases in California. 2 are former passengers on the "Grand Princess". Do they mean Diamond Princess, or is this another ship?

Are passengers of the Diamond Princess still in quarantine?

Different cruise chip...off the coast of California I believe.

Ah... Okay, how many princesses are there roaming the seas? LOL

Here you go!

Holy floating incubators, Batman.... That's a lot of coronavirus!

originally posted by: Encia22

originally posted by: MrRCflying

originally posted by: JoeRivers

originally posted by: MrRCflying
3 new cases in California. 2 are former passengers on the "Grand Princess". Do they mean Diamond Princess, or is this another ship?

Are passengers of the Diamond Princess still in quarantine?

Different cruise chip...off the coast of California I believe.

Ah... Okay, how many princesses are there roaming the seas? LOL

Here you go!

That makes sense. Princess cruise lines. Duh... My brain has not been with me since I woke up this morning.

a reply to: MonkeyBalls2

Correct, and apparently one death:

A coronavirus patient who had recently traveled on the Grand Princess cruise ship has died in California, the state confirmed. The ship is now sitting off the coast near San Francisco, waiting for test results from 45 current passengers and crew members.

A Princess cruise passenger died of the coronavirus in California. The ship is sitting off the coast of San Francisco, and virus tests were helicoptered in.

As a quick aside, I know two people on this ship. Not real well, they aren't close friends or anything but they are a couple of my regulars.

The last time they came to the restaurant and they told me they were going on a cruise, I opined that they might want to postpone it due to the virus but they dismissed my worry as unfounded.

I wonder if they're thinking about my warning now that they are stuck in the ship with confirmed cases?