Corona Virus Updates Part 4

For everyone who thinks in a level-headed Manner. All others can disregard.

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a reply to: carewemust

Mortality is lower, but number infected is higher.

a reply to: Bishop2199

Here's the thing, there is still a lot we don't know about the virus of how the disease progresses in those who become infected.

With an R0 of 2.2, the doubling time of the number of infected persons is a little over one week:

In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days.

www.nejm.org...

If the R0 is higher, then the doubling time is much shorter.

The above taken into consideration with, as butcherguy mentioned, severe patients require care for very long periods of time, then maybe you can see how it would not take very long for our medical care system to be overrun by this?

originally posted by: carewemust
For everyone who thinks in a level-headed Manner. All others can disregard.

mobile.twitter.com...

Love the first reply to that tweet.

"My doctor doesn't wear a hazmat suit when I have the flu."

originally posted by: Bishop2199
However, you are also assuming that all 2 million will require hospitalization at the same time. As some die off, beds will be available to others. It's a grizzly thought, but that's just numbers.

Well, they won't all become infected or present with symptoms at the same time either. This worst case scenario appears to assume just that.

Hopefully most of these older/more vulnerable will already have learned to be careful to avoid getting the flu, because that can be dangerous for them too, which will further drive down the numbers to something less than apocalyptic.

a reply to: UFO1414
Yeah, the responses to the tweet were on point.

The Tweet is just an ideologue holding water for Trump in order to push the narrative that this situation is no big deal.

Now get back out there and invest in the stock market!..

Corona beer does not cause coronavirus

Quote:
"Corona beer does not cause coronavirus, but a survey shows that US ‘purchase intent’ is down. According to data by YouGov, the so-called purchase intent among adults in the US for Corona beer has dropped to the lowest point in two years. However, the widely-cited statistic that 38% of Americans won't buy the Mexican lager because of coronavirus may be misleading."

Some things are just crazy right now due to this situation.

a reply to: FamCore
I read it here:


Link
Thanks to Weirdguy, who posted the link on page 6 I think.

It's out of Australia, so maybe it is just a difference of cultural speak?

Otherwise, it seems this would be a flu that could cause some people a lifetime of effects, if it really did cause a disease.

@Spartanstoic @tennisdawg

Some /one /more of you mentioned this strain showing in Europe may be different from the original Chinese strain?
This may put some weight behind that claim??

Coronavirus may have been in Italy for weeks before it was detected

The claim follows laboratory tests that isolated a strain of the virus from an Italian patient, which showed genetic differences compared with the original strain isolated in China and two Chinese tourists who became sick in Rome.

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: jadedANDcynical
From what I have read, the severe cases require intensive care, with the use of oxygen and often ventilators. Just hospital beds won't be enough for those people.
Oh, and the people that need these types of treatment need it for months.

I think you meant weeks? I haven't seen anything saying months, except maybe for the most extreme cases.

The virus affecting a large proportion of the world is the first domino.
The overwhelmed health system is the second.
The quarantine and its affects on business and supply chain is the third (the downside of globalisation laid bare).
If it gets beyond that, then the forth domino is the loss of many people with illnesses that can no longer be treated due to all the previous breaks in normality.
The fifth is the lack of food, and possibly some break down in essential services.
Beyond that, it largely depends on who gets it, and whether behind closed doors there is already an elite that are "immune". This last one is where conspiracy comes in. If however this is truly natural, and no one is safe, then you could easily see governmental and authoritative breakdown. That is when the whole Mad Max world starts i suppose... or the alien takeover

I wonder how far down the list it goes before it comes under control. If you're here on ATS, then you know somethings up, and non of the things I say above should be that much of a shock. Outside this place, eyes would roll. I will be glad to be eye rolled at in a couple of months time. It isn't looking super optimistic from where I'm sitting though, I have to be honest.


p.s. My post isn't to be taken too seriously, obviously.

Side note: I just went shopping here in the UK.

To prep or not to prep? That was the question. Well i did my usual £150 shop but decided against extras. I've got my eye on the ball and if i see things going a particular way, i'm ahead of the public knowledgewise (thx to all on ATS, naysayers and panic preppers included lol) so will know what, where and when to stock but right now i'm guessing this will cause a stir but no full on quarantines or severe lockdowns where food shortage will become a problem so i am erring on the side of wait and see. If i'm wrong, i will eat........whatever rations i have left!!

Last part of thread3 turned into a full on panic prep thread but glad we are slightly back to usual news coverage updates and the like. Hopefully no more cries of "get to the bank and withdraw all your money NOW!"

SMDH

Emerging data as well as knowledge from the SARS and MERS coronavirus outbreaks yield some clues as to why SARS-CoV-2 affects some people worse than others.

Elderly and sick people are most susceptible to severe forms of COVID-19

The latest data from China stem from an analysis of nearly 45,000 confirmed cases, and on the whole suggest that the people most likely to develop severe forms of COVID-19 are those with pre-existing illnesses and the elderly.

While less than 1 percent of people who were otherwise healthy died from the disease, the fatality rate for people with cardiovascular disease was 10.5 percent. That figure was 7.3 percent for diabetes patients and around 6 percent for those with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer.

It’s harder to explain why young, healthy people also sometimes die from the disease—for instance, Li Wenliang, a 34-year-old doctor who first sounded the alarm about the virus. He died a few weeks after contracting the pathogen.

Genetic and environmental risk factors might help explain the severity of infections. Though it’s clear that genetic factors can strongly determine the outcome of viral infections in mice—as some of Rasmussen’s work has shown for Ebola, for instance—researchers haven’t yet been able to tease out specific genes or variants in mice, let alone in people, that are responsible for varying degrees of illness. Environmental factors, such as smoking or air quality, may also play a role in disease severity, Rasmussen adds.

Why different coronaviruses vary in severity

There are seven coronaviruses known to infect people. Four of them—229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1—typically cause a cold and only rarely result in death. The other three—MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and the new SARS-CoV-2—have varying degrees of lethality. In the 2003 SARS outbreak, 10 percent of infected people died. Between 2012 and 2019, MERS killed 23 percent of infected people. Although the case fatality rate of COVID-19 is lower, the virus has already killed more people than the other two outbreaks combined, which some have attributed to the pathogen’s fast transmission.

The cold-causing coronaviruses, as well as many other viruses that cause common colds, are typically restricted to the upper respiratory tract, that is, the nose and sinuses. Both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, however, are capable of invading deep into the lungs, something that is associated with more severe disease.

One possible reason for this is that the virus binds to the ACE-2 receptor on human cells in order to gain entry. This receptor is present in ciliated epithelial cells in the upper and lower airway, as well as in type II pneumocytes, which reside in the alveoli in the lower airway and produce lung-lubricating proteins. “The type II pneumocytes are . . . important for lung function, so this is part of why the lower respiratory disease can be so severe,” notes Gralinksi.

The new coronavirus also appears to use the ACE-2 receptor, which may help partially explain why, like SARS, it is more deadly than the other four coronaviruses. Those pathogens use different receptors, except for NL63, which also uses the ACE-2 receptor but binds to it with less affinity, says Gralinski. (MERS is thought to use an entirely different receptor, which is also present in the lower airways.)

This entire article is fantastic. It talks about infection rates of men vs. women, reinfection immunity and overall is a fairly easy read on a very technical topic. Link below:

www.the-scientist.com...

a reply to: clay2 baraka
Nice find! Thank you. The physiology makes quite a bit of sense.

So what is the opinion, on putting all our senior citizens under quarantine and pre conditioned threatened highest from the disease, and just let it run its course? Just be done and over with it. I don’t see it being contained and chances are we will be fine, just deal with it like the flu.

sorry, been gone 2 days due to work - maybe this been posted, but interesting...

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

3) Regarding accuracy of tests - while I’m waiting to find more, keep in mind that while false negatives are common - it might not always be the test. Could be the way the virus sheds in diff body fluid samples. Also positive test still useful — unless the PPV drop too much.

twitter.com...

a reply to: carewemust

seasonal flu doesn't shut down the planet. this is.

originally posted by: Bicent
So what is the opinion, on putting all our senior citizens under quarantine and pre conditioned threatened highest from the disease, and just let it run its course? Just be done and over with it. I don’t see it being contained and chances are we will be fine, just deal with it like the flu.

Kim Jong Un, Is that really you?..

a reply to: clay2 baraka

lol just thinking..

No it is not.