Corona Virus Updates Part 4

a reply to: musicismagic

Mike Pence is an Evangelical. In all probability, the man prays for guidance in the morning before he picks out which socks to wear for the day. I am not mocking that, just stating a fact. I'd honestly be more concerned if they'd put out news saying Pence's team doesn't take a moment for prayer before their meetings because THAT would be out of character for the man. I'd honestly freak out if Pence came out tomorrow and said "Faith has failed us, we're on our own and have to do this in absence of God." Why would that freak me out? Because it would indicate something serious enough to shake someone who is absolutely a man of ridiculously strong faith and when that happens, it's rarely good.

a reply to: SpartanStoic

What I foresee is foks 'round here digging into exactly who that 3rd Party Vendor (a.k.a. Unnamed Private Corporation) was that was supposedly set to manufacture the Coronavirus Test Kits for the U.S. Government? Were those the contaminated ones? Who decided and ordered a contract? I have to doubt that the CDC, without oversight, was allowed to make this call since we did it so very uniquely. The World Health Organization was already supplying 57 (I think was the number) other countries around the world with large quantities of Coronavirus Test Kits. Why aren't we using those kits then and now? Who ordered this contract to make our own? Who was going to get to manufacture them in the months and years ahead?

That's a blaring red "follow the money" light that brighter minds than mine in such matters will hopefully pursue. Because the answers, and subsequent questions and answers are costing people their lives today and for who knows how long into the future. Real lives.

Why did we do this? It seems to have turned out so very wrong. Was there a profit motive over how to best serve the public health in this crisis?

Anyway, you just brought up something related, so it reminded me to plant those seed questions again with the minds at ATS.

Be well and do good things, ATS.

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
a reply to: Bicent

Definitely agree the CDC f-ed up, bigly. With an elephant on top. But POTUS can’t micromanage down that far. It simply doesn’t work that way. VP can’t either.

I’m not the biggest fan of their handling of the crisis but in the last few days they’ve made some solid decisions. I especially think utilizing the state health agencies was the way to go. Many states had their own tests including NY, CA, AZ, and TX (IIRC) and only a fool would ignore that, they didn’t. I think networking down to the populace using the states reduces risks, mitigates red tape, and speeds responsiveness.

It would not surprise me if the decision was made coz CDC f-ed up with the test.

Sorry what's this about TX having their own tests? I'm deep into this and I have not ever once heard that and I'm in the capitol city. Our number is at 11 and we are one of the largest states. If you read/heard TX had it's own tests you heard/read wrong. IF we do have tests that I don't know about.... we aren't using them.

originally posted by: LuxFer1917
*POST REMOVED BY STAFF*

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
a reply to: UFO1414

We could work the numbers backwards as well.

In that case, 9 is 3.4% of 264. Meaning there are nearly 100 unreported cases.

Assumptions above are that the CFR of 3.4% is accurate, and that only 9 have actually died of Covid19 related complications.

Important fact: The 9 people who died have been already ill for 2-3 weeks... look at that date and say the case number for that date... then interpolate this and project it to today.

The 9 cases ill 2 weeks ago... is 3.4% of infected at this point. So it was 264 case numbers 2-3 weeks ago. Now... today there is much more unreportet or untested cases (that actually might not have started to feel ill at all)

All this meaning... looking at 9 dead people... is looking into the past!

Even higher number if some deaths have been counted as other cases some weeks ago and even now! Why? Thats what happened in china.

Counting cases from 2 weeks back upwards from 264 with 25% increase a day... 330, 412, 516, 645, 806, 1007, 1259 one week back its 1259 (based on 9 deaths now)

1574, 1967, 2459, 3073, 3842, 4800, 6002 ok so 6002 if it was 2 weeks ago when they got infected in the first place... still assuming 3.4% of infected die.

7503, 9379, 11724, 14655, 18319, 22898, 28622 is the count when the 9 deaths occurred even 3 weeks back at 3.4% death rate per infected.

So total cases infected right now could be 28622 right now without feeling ill still. Based on 9 deaths dated back 3 weeks and calculated with 3.4% death rate -> coming from 264 original cases back then and increasing the number by 25% each day.

And of those 28622 3,4% will die in 2-3 weeks. Thats 973 people as good as dead already! If it takes 4-5 weeks... we have to count back even more!

35777, 44722, 55902, 69877, 87347, 109184, 136408 infected now if it took 3,4% of 264 people 4 weeks to die.

170600, 213250, 266563, 333203, 414505, 520631, 650788 infected right now, if it took 3.4% of 264 people 5 weeks to die from first day of infection. So that would be 22127 people as good as dead already right now... looking 5 weeks from now in the future!

Sooo how long does it take to die? Nice numbers? See? I can tell the future and the past. 😁😉👍🏻

So thats some serious doomporn from Germany 😁

To make those estimates more in line with current data available in states like Italy... it would be 1/7 increase per day, as it seems to double each week according to test numbers from Italy.

So yeah if numbers double each week and it takes 5 weeks to die counting upwards from being infected and calculating with 3.4% deathrate at 9 deaths right now and therefore 264 people 5 weeks back infected those 264 have doubled 5 times... so it can as well be 8448 now. Looking not soo doomporny... also wouldn‘t crash my wholy moly #ing industry like china for such a virus... so guess 264 to 8448 in 5 weeks seems to low...

a reply to: Strifingsoul

No confirmation biases in that imaginary equation, no siree!
:rolleyes:

Look, that type of hypothetical isn't helpful nor is it based on anything other than tomfoolery. You could just as easily say that I ate one donut for breakfast yesterday, 2 donuts for breakfast today... at those rates, by the end of next month, I will consume 97.2% of my local Krispy Kreme's inventory. There are multiple variables and constant modifiers such as underlying health issues, vulnerabilities, concentration times required to contract the virus, etc at play that such a simplistic attempt totally ignores.

a reply to: DancedWithWolves

I do also, I’d like to know who jacked that up. Most likely a normally used govt contractor so the bidding process could be avoided. I didn’t work around CDC only FEMA and DHS agencies and am not familiar. Can make educated guess that it was fast tracked which doesn’t need high level approval in certain situations coz I handled govt contracts but for IT.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: Strifingsoul

No confirmation biases in that imaginary equation, no siree!
:rolleyes:

Look, that type of hypothetical isn't helpful nor is it based on anything other than tomfoolery. You could just as easily say that I ate one donut for breakfast yesterday, 2 donuts for breakfast today... at those rates, by the end of next month, I will consume 97.2% of my local Krispy Kreme's inventory. There are multiple variables and constant modifiers such as underlying health issues, vulnerabilities, concentration times required to contract the virus, etc at play that such a simplistic attempt totally ignores.

Its growing exponentially... it got an R2 growth factor. Spanish flu had 1,8 or something and that bugger infected how many? Anyway... here is another good article.

www.google.com...

Viruses can spread exponentially, if not contained. You are no virus... your hunger for donuts is therefore not getting viral anytime... yeah *rolleyes*

a reply to: pasiphae

I could be wrong, I noted it with IIRC. Not first time, won’t be the last.

Read it somewhere that I can’t find atm. Possibly buried due to the released positive case all over the place.

I checked TX Health website, they don’t even track for the state they allow CDC to do it.

a reply to: Strifingsoul

Quit stealing my donuts! I licked those first!!

a reply to: Agit8dChop


If it wasn't for President Trumps Forethought in Preparing the Country for the Inevitable Outbreak of the Coronavirus within U.S. Borders , Many more Americans could be Infected by it at this Moment . Food for Thought ..........

originally posted by: Strifingsoul

originally posted by: LuxFer1917
Circle jerk to doom porn. Ahhhhh i might get the cold ahhhhhhh holy mother of g9d im might get the flu ahhhhh

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
a reply to: UFO1414

We could work the numbers backwards as well.

In that case, 9 is 3.4% of 264. Meaning there are nearly 100 unreported cases.

Assumptions above are that the CFR of 3.4% is accurate, and that only 9 have actually died of Covid19 related complications.

Important fact: The 9 people who died have been already ill for 2-3 weeks... look at that date and say the case number for that date... then interpolate this and project it to today.

The 9 cases ill 2 weeks ago... is 3.4% of infected at this point. So it was 264 case numbers 2-3 weeks ago. Now... today there is much more unreportet or untested cases (that actually might not have started to feel ill at all)

All this meaning... looking at 9 dead people... is looking into the past!

Even higher number if some deaths have been counted as other cases some weeks ago and even now! Why? Thats what happened in china.

Counting cases from 2 weeks back upwards from 264 with 25% increase a day... 330, 412, 516, 645, 806, 1007, 1259 one week back its 1259 (based on 9 deaths now)

1574, 1967, 2459, 3073, 3842, 4800, 6002 ok so 6002 if it was 2 weeks ago when they got infected in the first place... still assuming 3.4% of infected die.

7503, 9379, 11724, 14655, 18319, 22898, 28622 is the count when the 9 deaths occurred even 3 weeks back at 3.4% death rate per infected.

So total cases infected right now could be 28622 right now without feeling ill still. Based on 9 deaths dated back 3 weeks and calculated with 3.4% death rate -> coming from 264 original cases back then and increasing the number by 25% each day.

And of those 28622 3,4% will die in 2-3 weeks. Thats 973 people as good as dead already! If it takes 4-5 weeks... we have to count back even more!

35777, 44722, 55902, 69877, 87347, 109184, 136408 infected now if it took 3,4% of 264 people 4 weeks to die.

170600, 213250, 266563, 333203, 414505, 520631, 650788 infected right now, if it took 3.4% of 264 people 5 weeks to die from first day of infection. So that would be 22127 people as good as dead already right now... looking 5 weeks from now in the future!

Sooo how long does it take to die? Nice numbers? See? I can tell the future and the past. 😁😉👍🏻

So thats some serious doomporn from Germany 😁

To make those estimates more in line with current data available in stages like Italy... it would be 1/7 increase per day, as it seems to double each week according to test numbers from Italy.

Uhhh ouch. I hope your math is wrong but in looking at what we've seen in other countries so far...... it probably isn't. :/

a reply to: liejunkie01

these celebrity CEOs and elitists are so narcissistic they want to be in the limelight for anything these days... (see Elon Musk as another example)

On another note, we've officially hit 80 countries with confirmed cases: thewuhanvirus.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I was right. Being in Japan this long people that I've enjoyed the work and after the work night drinking parties, one gets to know a lot of people in power. I mentioned in the above thread something that was /is hidden from the population of Japan.

This is it: New virus Infected by a man in their 40s in Yamaguchi Prefecture First in Chugoku region . This was well known in the medical community since last Friday and today is Wednesday here. I even knew of it but as my above post stated I didn't want to post something this serious.
This area is of importance , now I will tell you why. Ube kosan produces many of the chemicals that are use in your medications around the world. If this virus hit the work force here at the company (which is the basic pull on the local economy) this city will ... I don't want to mislead you all, but I mention my wife is /was in the teaching field, the events that now can take place in this area can be desvestating (sp) .
Yamaguchi only has 2 entries coming in from Fukuoka. If the truckers get sick... the whole country will suffer a set back.

my wife said yesterday this: japan may see a difficulty we havent seen since ww2 , I now think she just be right

a reply to: MaverickLRD
I don't understand why these deniers even come to this forum, why do they bother?
Go check the markets and see how wonderful things are going... www.marketwatch.com...
If you're still content with the situation, please troll somewhere else, it's all great mate... go lick a gate.

It's just the flu, nothing to see....

This world is like a bad movie... one flu of over the cuckoos nest!