Corona Virus Updates Part 4

originally posted by: fleabit
Actually death rate of Spanish Flu was 2.5%.

Ok, I've asked this before with no answer...

CDC says this:

"The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States."

According to my math, 500 million infected, with 50 million deaths, equals 10% death rate.

What am I missing?

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
Probably 'normal' (lol)...

They just tested the emergency alert system here in FL..

Have picture but ATS doesnt upload pics on my phone, so you will just have to take my word for it..

Florida gov has declared a public health emergency. Maybe thats it.

Spain Update....

Jumped another 40 cases in last 24 hours. Its moving at Italy pace in Spain. Not good!

UK is 37 after 3-4 weeks, but Spain is 120+ in less than a week apart from the initial 2-4.

Hope they shut the schools then we can lock down.

www.abc.es...

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Am I wrong or were you the one making light of the situation in part one?

Define 'making light'. I never said it wouldn't come here, and I never said it wouldn't have an impact.

I said it is not - from the evidence we have even now - something to fear, just to be informed and aware of, and take responsibility for our loved ones most at risk.

If I am wrong about that, I am sorry for the mistake. If not, I am happy to see you have come around and now taking things seriously. Be prepared and be safe. My mother is 85, and I worry about her too.

I haven't changed my view of this at all.

originally posted by: fleabit
That is terrible lack of planning. Our government is bungling this crisis bigly.

SNAFU. Why are you surprised? I'm not.

I think we will start seeing numbers "explode" in some (more honest) countries. Much Like Italy.

You can only hide the outbreak so long, before too many people are critically ill from pneumonia, or flu etc and doctors demand nCoV test.

They are denied currently due to no known contact or no travel history. US also want their own test made, but it appears it is made by Laurel and Hardy inc because they keep bungling it, so conveniently there are no tests in the US.

But eventually one does get tested, then all their close contacts are investigated, and so a cluster grows very fast on paper. In fact it was growing weeks ago.

Some countries will still 'delay' by not following up new cases/contacts properly or not testing them, in order to make things look better on paper. Some, like Italy, will do it properly. They will quickly find it is much more spread. Numbers may slow down in Italy as they track enough down, or the required testing capacity is unattainable. Spread will continue to increase though and speed up again (though not as fast as doubling every 2 days), slowing again until it is saturated, but by this point data will be out of reach and resources will be diverted entirely to contain what is left, hopefully allowing the virus to die without starting a new wave.

According to my math, 500 million infected, with 50 million deaths, equals 10% death rate.

What am I missing?

I just am going off what I found leveraging the power of Google. WHO stated it was at 2.5% - Stanford University also says it was 2.5%. Multiple sources put the final fatality rate for Spanish flu right around that 2.5% - although I think Covid will end up being a bit lower. But.. still could easily be around 2% when all is said and done. And the R0 seems higher than the Spanish Flu.

originally posted by: pasiphae
Several are in critical condition and it's on lockdown.

Ok, all in the very high risk categories... thanks...

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: fleabit
Actually death rate of Spanish Flu was 2.5%.

Ok, I've asked this before with no answer...

CDC says this:

"The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States."

According to my math, 500 million infected, with 50 million deaths, equals 10% death rate.

What am I missing?

The World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio).[51] It is estimated that approximately 30 million were killed by the flu, or about 1.7% of the world population died.[52] Other estimates range from 17 to 55 million fatalities

From Wiki which I know lots of people on ATS don't like en.wikipedia.org...

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: fleabit
Actually death rate of Spanish Flu was 2.5%.

Ok, I've asked this before with no answer...

CDC says this:

"The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States."

According to my math, 500 million infected, with 50 million deaths, equals 10% death rate.

What am I missing?

Nothing. Maybe WHO could start some sort of 're-education' camps

This was one thing I was wondering about when we heard the newborn was positive.

Clinical records, laboratory results, and chest CT scans were retrospectively reviewed for nine pregnant women with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia (ie, with maternal throat swab samples that were positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]) who were admitted to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, from Jan 20 to Jan 31, 2020. Evidence of intrauterine vertical transmission was assessed by testing for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in amniotic fluid, cord blood, and neonatal throat swab samples. Breastmilk samples were also collected and tested from patients after the first lactation.

Lancet

originally posted by: MrRCflying
Cuomo just said "Community spread is inevitable."

So which is it De Blasio saying you can't get it easily, and Cuomo saying it will be.

They can both be true you know...

originally posted by: celltypespecific
Here is your link :

www.nytimes.com... ule=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

Nothing there saying all of them are elderly, high risk (have existing health issues)... figures, it is the NYT after all.

I am putting this here tentatively, because of the way governments and health agencies around the world, and in tandem, are reacting to this round of flu virus...

www.express.co.uk...

Governments and health agencies are reacting to Covid-19 as if it is a bio-weapon. You don't use hazmat suits with the flu. All the talk and the spin and the actual actions imply something 'other' to what they are actually stating.

Also, why are stock markets allegedly falling because of this flu? They have never fallen for the flu before. It's as if they are using Covid-19 as a distraction while they shaft all of us with something other that they are trying to keep hidden?

originally posted by: Advantage
a reply to: tanstaafl

The death rate is not the real problem here.

I totally agree, and this is what I've been saying.

Panic caused by unreasonable fear-mongering is the real problem here.

originally posted by: Power_Semi
2345

Yes, that should be about right! I'm working on a bit of a prediction model, and on a linear path it should be somewhere between 2255 and upward to 2400.
It'll be interesting to see. I'll confer notes with your spirits.

This is an early prediction, but I'm estimating the following... Italy will be between 6150 and 6500 cases in a weeks time (Monday 9th March).
I'm also looking at the UK having around 200 cases by next Monday too... but that is low balling as it is early days.
Europe as a whole will be in the region of 7100 (maybe up to 8000) cases by Monday 9th March.
My work is also in very early stages, so I'm posting these here to see how close they are. They shouldn't be used by anyone as any kind of fact, just estimations of growth. The virus seems to be following a curve that is quite predictable but still accelerating. Time will tell.

US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said of the 14 original positive cases of coronavirus in the United States, all are recovered or recovering.

“We’ve seen an increase of cases in the United States over the weekend. I want folks to understand that we knew this was coming, we told folks that this was going to happen and it is why we’ve been preaching preparedness from the very start," Adams said.

Source

I think it is time for me to pull out my Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy."

Don't Panic!!!

Where's my towel?

originally posted by: Advantage

originally posted by: ragiusnotiel
Probably 'normal' (lol)...

They just tested the emergency alert system here in FL..

Have picture but ATS doesnt upload pics on my phone, so you will just have to take my word for it..

Florida gov has declared a public health emergency. Maybe thats it.

No it was labeled a test lots of states listed hold on hosting it

pic

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: celltypespecific
Here is your link :

www.nytimes.com... ule=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

Nothing there saying all of them are elderly, high risk (have existing health issues)... figures, it is the NYT after all.

2 men., 1 in 50's, 1 in 70's

* Both men had underlying health problems.

On our list of risk factors and preexisting conditions and comorbidity list it includes...

Diabetes
Pregnancy
high blood pressure
ANY cardiac or cardiovascular disease
Liver or Kidney disease or dysfunction
I cant recall them all.. these were toward the top of the list.

I mean you dont have to be on deaths door. These are more common complaints in the population. Pregnancy is .. erm.. common Id say.

We got our lists between the CDC and the ACEP clinical alerts.