Corona Virus Updates Part 3

I think common sense should tell us we aren't getting the real numbers. There have been examples of average joe's and jane's posting here telling us how they have seen or heard of virus diagnoses in their own city but we're meant to believe there are 22 cases currently in the entire US? It just doesn't add up.

One cruise ship is affected more than just about anywhere else in the world?

I mean the way the Chinese government is releasing statistics is laughable. TOO MANY CASES IN A DAY, WE HAVE TO REVERT TO THE OLD WAY OF TESTING.



this graph has probably already been posted but I mean come on. The spike is when they were including clinical and lab diagnoses. But then again maybe the numbers are low because most places arent even testing for it or lack the kits.

Iran officially admits 47 confirmed cases now.

12 dead...from 47 cases.....hopefully that's an aberration.

originally posted by: myselfaswell

Iran officially admits 47 confirmed cases now.

12 dead...from 47 cases.....hopefully that's an aberration.

It might be the true mortality rate.

Would be ironic if the only people telling the truth were an Islamic state rather than our "champions of truth and freedom".

a reply to: SailorJerry

Now you know why I'm not a numbers guy.

a reply to: myselfaswell

12 dead...from 47 cases.....hopefully that's an aberration.

OTOH, NorK reported 2 cases and 5 dead, and they might have been telling the truth.

a reply to: akiros

Yea the numbers are junk, crime against humanity, hope they are held accountable.

a reply to: Power_Semi

It might be the true mortality rate

As far as I'm aware the true mortality rate is about 12% ish, which is a shocker to say the least. 25% or thereabout..........yeah...good luck with that.........like I said hopefully that's an aberration.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
The death rate has jumped to 3.3%, multiply that the 7 million people and that makes 231 million....

3.3% of 7 billion people is 231 million.

That's with 100% getting infected. 60% may be more realistic

so 139 million.

3.3% overall may not be realistic since anywhere will become stretched. 0.5% in 1st world countries, becomes more like Wuhan. So 5% may be more realistic.

So 210 million.

At this level of pandemic, avoidable losses due to other causes can easily out weigh those of the virus,

so at least 420 million... at 60% getting infected. (Some say it could be 80% so 560 million)

All speculation.

Its messin with Straya, good they aren't flying there as much though.

Qantas slashes flights to Asia as it warns coronavirus outbreak could cost it $150 million

Staff asked to take leave amid flight cuts

ABC

Sky news has just reported that there were 150 deaths over night and that things are getting better and slowing down.

So according to the Chinese they have it under control.

Believe?

I don't and my guess is the true numbers are x 100 and will end up x 1000+

a reply to: TrulyColorBlind

Yes, you can pay bills online. But, if you're self-quarantined and not able to go to work to draw a paycheck, with what would you use to pay your bills online? edit on 23-2-2020 by TrulyColorBlind because: Messed up frst time. Fixed. Edit to add: And your comment didn't really address my question.

Fair enough.
The way I see it, there are the following courses of action I see here:
1) Ask your employer whether it's possible to get some paychecks in advance
2) Ask relevant suppliers/state or federal agencies how can the situation be resolved. Preferably in writing. Will they provide services free of charge? Or can they delay payments? etc etc.
3) If possible, try to squirrel away some money to be able to pay when time comes.

Other than that, IDK what else is to be done. I do believe that, when SHTF, the gubmints will leave us without any substantial support or help. So I try to plan accordingly. Maybe, if the crisis is not too dire, they will try to provide some measly help. But governments being what they are, I wouldn't count on much.

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
The death rate has jumped to 3.3%, multiply that the 7 million people and that makes 231 million....

3.3% of 7 billion people is 231 million.

That's with 100% getting infected. 60% may be more realistic

so 139 million.

3.3% overall may not be realistic since anywhere will become stretched. 0.5% in 1st world countries, becomes more like Wuhan. So 5% may be more realistic.

So 210 million.

At this level of pandemic, avoidable losses due to other causes can easily out weigh those of the virus,

so at least 420 million... at 60% getting infected. (Some say it could be 80% so 560 million)

All speculation.

980 million. That's 14% of 7 billion. That's how many critical cases there are, the floating number that will die if adequate care isn't received. That's the number to worry about, not the straight off deaths.

One tip to help keep an eye on local conditions is to see what resources are available on hospital reporting. For here in South Australia there is:

SA Health Emergency Dept Dashboard

In past years there have been complaints with hospital waiting times, more so during the winter flu season. To help address some of these issues this dashboard has helped keep an objective eye on the situation. Only a very general category of illness or injury is provided with good numbers on waiting times and patient loads. If or when the hospitals do receive a large influx of patients it will show up here.

At this time there has been 3 reported cases in Adelaide, a couple about a month ago with one more recent. At this time I don't know much about these or any other possible cases. If a break out of the infection is to occur, then I expect symptoms to surface about 3 weeks from first infection. How Italy has recently jumped with just a few cases at first does follow the pattern for how this virus spreads.

Adelaide recently allowed students from China back into the Universities, they do have more money than most of the locals. Students from the Hubei province where it all started are still on the banned list for the moment.

a reply to: Jelonek

Of course the electric / water / gas companies are going to let you continue service even if you aren't paying. What do they have to gain holding those resources from everyone? The reason they shut you down now is because it's such isolated cases most people find the money for the basics. If half the population can't pay, they aren't going to shut off half the population! They will let you go hundreds in the hole and when things stabilize they'll send you to collections.

originally posted by: TheIrvy2

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
The death rate has jumped to 3.3%, multiply that the 7 million people and that makes 231 million....

3.3% of 7 billion people is 231 million.

That's with 100% getting infected. 60% may be more realistic

so 139 million.

3.3% overall may not be realistic since anywhere will become stretched. 0.5% in 1st world countries, becomes more like Wuhan. So 5% may be more realistic.

So 210 million.

At this level of pandemic, avoidable losses due to other causes can easily out weigh those of the virus,

so at least 420 million... at 60% getting infected. (Some say it could be 80% so 560 million)

All speculation.

980 million. That's 14% of 7 billion. That's how many critical cases there are, the floating number that will die if adequate care isn't received. That's the number to worry about, not the straight off deaths.

Well yeah, if you want to look at the extreme end of the spectrum...

19% require hospitalisation

80% of the population getting infected. At least the same amount of losses due to other causes and violence etc, 2.3 billion dead (30% of the population).

Like I say, all speculation, but worth considering.

edit: I should add, since we're talking extreme, this could happen in a couple of years. There would also be famine, wars, civil or otherwise, and other outbreaks of disease due to struggle. Not the end of mankind, but 2.3 billion would just be the start.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Sky news has just reported that there were 150 deaths over night and that things are getting better and slowing down.

So according to the Chinese they have it under control.

Believe?

I don't and my guess is the true numbers are x 100 and will end up x 1000+

The sky news is correct. 150 new cases today. Tokyo time 20-24 Monday evening.
2592 people have known to have died.
A bit more then 77000 cases of known infections as of today.

I guess that is good news.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

I'm not sure it is the extreme end, I think it's going to be the problem end in every town and city. I live in a tiny city in the East of England population 200K, our local hospital has 600ish beds.

19% of 200K is 38,000 critical cases in my city alone, and that's not taking into account all the outlying satellite villages dotted around in every direction.

These aren't the extreme cases, these are the extremely dangerous cases, the ones that will kill a percentage of the folk who would have otherwise survived.

originally posted by: TheIrvy2
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

I'm not sure it is the extreme end, I think it's going to be the problem end in every town and city. I live in a tiny city in the East of England population 200K, our local hospital has 600ish beds.

19% of 200K is 38,000 critical cases in my city alone, and that's not taking into account all the outlying satellite villages dotted around in every direction.

These aren't the extreme cases, these are the extremely dangerous cases, the ones that will kill a percentage of the folk who would have otherwise survived.

no I agree, I just 'hope' it's extreme.

edit: Just to clarify, I hope this is the extreme over-estimate. Not "I hope it will be this extreme"!

a reply to: litterbaux

They will let you go hundreds in the hole and when things stabilize they'll send you to collections.

Yeeeep. Exactomundo.
Another fine way to drain our pockets.

19% of 200K is 38,000 critical cases in my city alone, and that's not taking into account all the outlying satellite villages dotted around in every direction.

I stand ready to be corrected by someone with medical experience here, but AFAIK once the snowball gets big enough the hospitals will stop accepting people? And promote staying at home?

a reply to: Jelonek
The UK are already saying if you think you have coronavirus then don't go to the hospital or your local GP.
Instead call 111 where they are telling people to self isolate at home. So they are already promoting that as they simply don't have the beds/staff here in the UK to cope.