Corona Virus Updates Part 3

a reply to: EndtheMadnessNow

Thank you for posting.

I read the entire article, however the page in the article does not show the year 2020 anywhere on it. My reading sucks these days but will have wife read it when she’s home.

The rest of it I’m not to sure of, I’d have to ask wife and see what I can dig up. Tshinghua grads do come in all flavors and generally are very smart. However they fall for Commie propaganda like many do.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Yeah, Zero confirmations is the media's narrative. I highly doubt this is the case though, because of several reasons.

1, A man traveled from China (Wuhan) through the Netherlands to France about a month ago. He was the first to die of the infection in Europe.
2, Several citizens who were on the (confirmed case) cruiseship 'Westerdam' have returned (9 of which to my city...) They are home, but ''closely'' monitored.
3, Suspected cases without severe symptoms are qarantained at home... Like, what?
4, The government doesn't want to ''overreact'', so doesn't do anything to prevent an outbreak (No screening at airports etc)

Who knows, I might just be the ''lucky'' first confirmed ATS-COVID case.

originally posted by: confiden
a reply to: Adski989

I don't understand why you would remove data points like the cases on the cruise ship and from the church. The fact that we found and measured those 2 clusters they should remain. It's important to keep all measured data points to get a realistic picture, the clusters are good because they reflect how fast it is spreading, they are not an "outlier" number to be discarded. IMHO

The cruise ship is not a natural occurrence, it’s was a major balls up that led to unnatural exposure and spreading of the virus, the church can stay I agree. But 634 is the cruise ship, makes your graph less dramatic, sorry.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Adski989

You have to leave the church data in for South Korea.

That may have been an intentional incident for them, but the Korean authorities cannot track them, and they are not answering when they get called. So they are very much on the table in terms of spreading this thing in the wild right now.

It's an anomaly, but you have to leave them in I think.

Well said. This is where the data is a minefield.

The cruise ship is an anomaly. But the so is Japan being so close to China. Iran is an anomaly because it is pretty clear things are more established there than has been previously reported. Italy is an anomaly because it's not representative of everywhere else. South Korea is an anomaly because they basically have an open border policy with China.

You keep removing the anomalies, and eventually we may end up with the only country that has managed to lie the longest.

Stats. I always hated stats. They can be very useful, but they can be very misleading. It's quite possible that with all the anomalies left in, it is actually much more representative of what is happening everywhere. At least 2 weeks ago.

Italy 2 deaths, 79 cases now

AFP Twitter

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Adski989

You have to leave the church data in for South Korea.

That may have been an intentional incident for them, but the Korean authorities cannot track them, and they are not answering when they get called. So they are very much on the table in terms of spreading this thing in the wild right now.

It's an anomaly, but you have to leave them in I think.

Well said. This is where the data is a minefield.

The cruise ship is an anomaly. But the so is Japan being so close to China. Iran is an anomaly because it is pretty clear things are more established there than has been previously reported. Italy is an anomaly because it's not representative of everywhere else. South Korea is an anomaly because they basically have an open border policy with China.

You keep removing the anomalies, and eventually we may end up with the only country that has managed to lie the longest.

Stats. I always hated stats. They can be very useful, but they can be very misleading. It's quite possible that with all the anomalies left in, it is actually much more representative of what is happening everywhere. At least 2 weeks ago.

Well said?? The cruise ship was an unnatural spread of the disease, it’s not a trend at all, plus you’re making stuff up, show the data how ever you like but it’s not credible. My last comment on the matter.

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
Italy 2 deaths, 79 cases now

AFP Twitter

It’s been two dead all day, Milan are the latest cases.

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
a reply to: confiden

Thanks Confiden, glad to see you are still keeping an eye on things. Also being into numbers glad to have you on board.

Your chart outside China is worrying. I've done one without the cruise data, which was a bit more promising, but now with Iran, South Korea and Italy, it is tending toward exponential like yours. 6 day doubling might be hopeful based on my modelling.

Have you looked at data for China not including Hubei? Have a look, it's quite amazing how neatly it fits the quadratic. 99.9% I think it was a few days ago. would love your insights.

Regards.

I don't trust the numbers from CCP too much so I don't track them. I believe the real situation is 10x worse than the numbers show, even at the international level. I believe in the metaphor someone posted: we are in a golf cart chasing a sports car. What is measured will always lag reality and all we can do is take the numbers and multiply them by 10 to get an idea of the actual spread. I will relocate to a more secluded location (Northern Quebec) only when the schools close in my region. Travel only by night. I believe SHTF will closely follow the schools closing because they will use those places to expand hospital capacity. Just like they did during 1998 freezing rain crisis in Quebec (3 weeks without electricity). The army went door-to-door in certain places to force people to go to the schools with generators. I plan to relocate before this happens...

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
Italy 2 deaths, 79 cases now

AFP Twitter

How is this possible...its ironic... I think the numbers reported are TOO HIGH...unlike China

originally posted by: Adski989

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: Adski989

You have to leave the church data in for South Korea.

That may have been an intentional incident for them, but the Korean authorities cannot track them, and they are not answering when they get called. So they are very much on the table in terms of spreading this thing in the wild right now.

It's an anomaly, but you have to leave them in I think.

Well said. This is where the data is a minefield.

The cruise ship is an anomaly. But the so is Japan being so close to China. Iran is an anomaly because it is pretty clear things are more established there than has been previously reported. Italy is an anomaly because it's not representative of everywhere else. South Korea is an anomaly because they basically have an open border policy with China.

You keep removing the anomalies, and eventually we may end up with the only country that has managed to lie the longest.

Stats. I always hated stats. They can be very useful, but they can be very misleading. It's quite possible that with all the anomalies left in, it is actually much more representative of what is happening everywhere. At least 2 weeks ago.

Well said?? The cruise ship was an unnatural spread of the disease, it’s not a trend at all, plus you’re making stuff up, show the data how ever you like but it’s not credible. My last comment on the matter.

I just said the cruise data is an anomaly. You just said it's an unnatural spread of the disease. Are we not in agreement?

The cruise ship was supposed to be under quarantine conditions. It still showed doubling of cases every 3.4 days. Quarantine was obviously not effective, but could quite easily mimic say an apartment block where people are locked inside. No one knows. It's an anomaly. Could it be representative? No one knows.

What am I making up? I'm speculating, yes but I'm not claiming anything as fact unless I can back it up with clear evidence.

originally posted by: Adski989

originally posted by: SpartanStoic
Italy 2 deaths, 79 cases now

AFP Twitter

It’s been two dead all day, Milan are the latest cases.

Now that its infecting whites...will the real panic begin...?

Australia getting close to animal trials on a first vaccine candidate.

They're working with a molecular clamp vaccine and part of a group developing three different types of vaccine candidates.

They'll have to see how this does in their test animals. It may not work. If it does, they can proceed to human trials, but just because something may work in animals doesn't mean it will work in humans. A lot of promising drugs and vaccines never get past human trials.

Does anyone have any clue about the size of apartment blocks sealed shut? is a 100 or 500 person "Cruise building".
Don't suppose anyone in there will be counted as infected until they unlock and count the results.

With the numbers it might be a case of they are right for what they have tested.
But as they can't test everyone everyday a lot of people are carrying and getting real sick without a number.
imagine - you have to wait in your car to be tested -
you wait in queue, hazmat suited person swabs you -
go park and wait for result.
Hazmat needs cleaning before moving to next car or would you do a MacDonald's drive - type thru first window get test kit 2nd window you drop off swabs. The pick-up and drop off will get a wipe between each car.

So how many tests in your local area do you think could be done in a day and how well would it reflect the actual number?.. How many Test kits are available each day in each area?
---------------------------------

The other day I asked about the self quarantine and the toilet waste, everyone thought I meant in the house, I meant down the sewer under the streets and going to the settling ponds at the sewage works. How long will it live and fester, do all western countries have the disinfection capabilities for buildings sewers etc.

Is the old fashion poop in a pot of bleach mash it up before pouring down the toilet good enough??

------------------------------


Has there been any news on the high Vitamin C trails the started last week?

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

I think the Diamond Princess is the best example we have to what may be going on inside China.

a reply to: ketsuko

I'd think it would be hard to find human "guinea pigs" to run 1st human trials on!

So like so many of us I have been following this thread and it's updates from the beginning.

just for the record here is what I have seen so far in my neck of the woods:

First off I accepted the depressing evidence that this is real and started stocking up on food a few weeks ago.

Now it is here. It turns out a Diamond Princess cruise passenger is from my town and has tested positive, and is in a hospital in California. mynorthwest.com..." target="_blank" class="postlink">mynorthwest.com... tests-positive-for-coronavirus-after-cruise/? Nothing "brings it home" more than hearing it is coming home, lol.

Olympia is a smaller sized city, around 60k people, not huge, and this news is a couple days old. I thought it would finally be a real wake up call but I was wrong. I have a very public job, out in the community every day, and I can tell you that nobody here is concerned at all (despite the connection to our community)... No masks, no discussions, In all these weeks I have only overheard one middle school kid making a joke about it. That's it, just one.

I have tried a few times to urge my elderly parents to stock up and be ready. My dad gently pretends to take me seriously, saying they are fine. I have seen their pantry. They have about one week of cans.

Among my friends more than a few are in outright denial mode, one tells me I am stupid and it's not really happening. Others just look at me funny like I am crazy.

a couple days ago was the first time I even heard it mentioned on talk radio, (aside from the 10 second daily news reports on the death toll in China) and it was really low level basic stuff about avoiding flu and viruses. Wash your hands. Like they were dancing around the subject, all this surrounding the news report that 4 or 5 positive tested patients would be at Sacred Heart hospital over in Spokane (a few hundred miles from here)

The lack of coverage and attention to this issue is appalling here in Wa. state. Maybe it's just me, but nobody here seems to care at all. Only the slightest uptick in the news so far.

I am so thankful for ATS and all the good discussion here on the Corona virus. Prettymuch the only place I can feel sane.

I would like to thank every single person who has contributed to this thread, I for one have truly appreciated it. it feels like closing time is coming.

Stock up and take care everyone, and let's have a huge party whenever we come out the other side of this.

Some of the videos coming out of Iran right now look like some of the first ones we saw in Wuhan weeks ago.
Also protests going on due to movement of coronavirus patients (no one wants them) and also that the government have known about infections but covered up to keep people going to the polls.
Not sure all is verified

Feb 22 - #Talesh, N Iran
Locals are protesting the transfer of four #coronavirus patients from Rasht to a hospital in this city. State security forces fired tear gas after protests erupted. “[/ex
twitter.com...

Breaking: The #COVID19 test of Mohsen Hashemi, Head of city council of Tehran came back positive for #sarscov2.

twitter.com...

Man says he had taken his mother to Baharloo hospital (Tehran, Iran) because she was suspected of #COVID19. He added that that the situation was terrible there with more than 10 cases at that hospital .He says even medical personnel were infected.

twitter.com...

Reports that Iranian Brigadier General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and commander of the Quds Force infected with #COVID19

twitter.com...

Reports indicated that Mohsen Hashemi met, the head of Tehran's city council, Rahmanzadeh who possibly contracted the #Coronavirus (COVID-19).
Mohsen Hashemi then have met on Friday Javad Zarif and Hassan Khomeini in a polling station and hugged them with kisses on their cheeks.

twitter.com...

originally posted by: Adski989

originally posted by: confiden
a reply to: Adski989

I don't understand why you would remove data points like the cases on the cruise ship and from the church. The fact that we found and measured those 2 clusters they should remain. It's important to keep all measured data points to get a realistic picture, the clusters are good because they reflect how fast it is spreading, they are not an "outlier" number to be discarded. IMHO

The cruise ship is not a natural occurrence, it’s was a major balls up that led to unnatural exposure and spreading of the virus, the church can stay I agree. But 634 is the cruise ship, makes your graph less dramatic, sorry.

What if the "balls up" response you consider an anomaly is actually representative of many future "balls up" gov responses? it might be the most important sign how things evolve and you are dismissing it. What if this is the Natural representation of spread in many similar future clusters? Food for thought

originally posted by: confiden

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
a reply to: confiden

Thanks Confiden, glad to see you are still keeping an eye on things. Also being into numbers glad to have you on board.

Your chart outside China is worrying. I've done one without the cruise data, which was a bit more promising, but now with Iran, South Korea and Italy, it is tending toward exponential like yours. 6 day doubling might be hopeful based on my modelling.

Have you looked at data for China not including Hubei? Have a look, it's quite amazing how neatly it fits the quadratic. 99.9% I think it was a few days ago. would love your insights.

Regards.

I don't trust the numbers from CCP too much so I don't track them. I believe the real situation is 10x worse than the numbers show, even at the international level. I believe in the metaphor someone posted: we are in a golf cart chasing a sports car. What is measured will always lag reality and all we can do is take the numbers and multiply them by 10 to get an idea of the actual spread. I will relocate to a more secluded location (Northern Quebec) only when the schools close in my region. Travel only by night. I believe SHTF will closely follow the schools closing because they will use those places to expand hospital capacity. Just like they did during 1998 freezing rain crisis in Quebec (3 weeks without electricity). The army went door-to-door in certain places to force people to go to the schools with generators. I plan to relocate before this happens...

Thank you for this. One of my fears is that we will be forced into a 'control area' 'for our own protection'.

I don't trust the China data either, but as you are a numbers brain, have a look anyway, it's quite remarkable. China without Hubei. Makes me wonder if there is internal conflict going on there between provinces and keeping to the 'trend'. Specifically Hubei, rest of China, and HK. HK was showing exponential growth in local transmission (bit more work to isolate for local transmission), then there was a shift in power, and numbers changed dramatically. But just looking at China without Hubei is interesting.

originally posted by: GlobalGold
a reply to: ketsuko

I'd think it would be hard to find human "guinea pigs" to run 1st human trials on!

Someone's going to have to do it.