Corona Virus Updates Part 3

a reply to: billjenkins589

For all we know if this a lab virus, China already has a vaccine.

This is so twilight zone, who knows what the heck is going on.

Considering the rest of the world reporting a surge Im still pissed the US is sticking with their 15. TOTALLY BS.

And even those surges could be only the proverbial tip of the iceberg.
The way I see it, problem with statistics in the case such as this virus spreading, if we are to believe the r0 assumptions of 3+, is akin to trying to catch up with a sports car...while driving a motorized golf cart. Eventually the golf cart will visit most, maybe even all places the sports car drove through or even stopped at, but it will be irrelevant, maybe for the sake of statistics alone. Or knowing when and how fast the sports car could revisit these places in the future...if there will be future.

I assume the virus is more or less in free circulation in majority if not all of Western countries. Different people react to it differently, and it's a flu season, so you have one crap atop of the other. A virus double decker of sorts.

Im far from doom mongering person, and honestly wish all of us that all the bad scenarios about this virus prove to be false. Probably it will be something in the middle. Yet, the official media coverage and statistics are more or less playing catch-up with reality. Meanwhile, the virus carries on.

Scholar: New artificial pneumonia virus is highly likely

Fang Qitai, a professor at the National Taiwan University School of Public Health, said today that academically , the new crown pneumonia virus may indeed be artificial, but administrative investigation is needed to reach a conclusion. In addition, if the virus is artificial, it means that there is no ecological place in nature, and the root may be broken in the future.

The French team compared the gene sequences and found that the new coronary pneumonia virus has 4 amino acids more than other coronaviruses, which may cause it to be more invasive, pathogenic, and transmissible than the original virus. Therefore, many people think that it is possible that some people think that SARS was too easy to be cracked 17 years ago, so they have developed an "upgraded version", and from the current technology, it can really be done.

Fang Qitai pointed out that most of the evolution in nature is a single point mutation, and it is unlikely that 4 amino acids will be added all at once. Therefore, academically speaking, new coronary pneumonia may indeed be artificially added in the laboratory;

Fang Qitai believes that whether the new crown pneumonia is artificial has a significant impact on the future investigation and judgment of the epidemic. If it is an artificial virus, it means that it does not have its ecological position in nature, unlike influenza. Influenza is naturally evolved and is part of the ecology. Therefore, no one dares to say that it can block or eliminate the flu. Can reduce disasters and reduce severe deaths.

But there is no virus in nature, which means that when the last patient is cured, it can be cut off and disappear. The epidemic will eventually become a thing of the past, with the opportunity to disappear like SARS.

Source

a reply to: Jelonek

No worries, it looks like a demonstration with some of the movements, that’s why they have exaggerated placement and poses, could even be for a class. Every patient in the pictures looks like training manikins or simulators in some form or another, even the one that they labeled as an Ebola patient.

Even if not real it’s good training, these manikins bleed, cry, puke, simulate airway issues and air/blood in cavities etc. You can needle chest decompress them, give them IVs, injections, blood draw, urinary catheters and even listen to bowel, gut, heart and respiratory sounds. The eyes react to light, they’re pretty cool, the best part is just like us they become incontinent with age and lose bladder control. They give real time reactions to meds and injuries and you can take vitals on them.

Canadian medical experts say the country's already overstretched emergency rooms would find it difficult to cope with a true outbreak of the novel Coronavirus,

bc.ctvnews.ca...

Thank you for your honesty Canada

originally posted by: billjenkins589
five hours ago NY Post reports "Don't buy Chinas story..the virus might have came from a lab." look it up ..I don't have link.
that was the headline.. Mainstream media reporting this way at this time is interesting. Are they going to find an exact sample in the lab now…with all information required for an immediate effective vaccine? Talk about double bonding. a reply to: Agit8dChop

The NY Post is hardly mainstream.. more of a tabloid.

I have noticed a few State actors taking advantage of this chaos to push their agendas (and many on ATS just eating it all up without questioning who has to gain by circulating conspiracy theories).. Deny Ignorance. /sigh

Steve Bannon / NeoConservative right wing US media: Coronavirus is a Chinese bioweapon accidentally set loose on their own populace.

Russia: Coronavirus is a US bioweapon targeting individuals of Asian genetics.

Taiwan: Twitterbot campaign highlighting the inefficiency and cruelty of the CCP.

Anti-Iran groups (backed by CIA, Mossad): Similar to the Taiwanese anti CCP campaign highlighting the inefficiency of Iranian government.

There is a lot off BS disinfo around this outbreak and many actors are feeding in a lot of exaggerated and false stories to fit this into their agendas. In fact, they don't even try to be subtle anymore.

DENY IGNORANCE

a reply to: confiden

February 22
I am updating and posting a new chart for confirmed coronavirus cases outside China. I am tracking them in Excel using data from John Hopkins dashboard. Just like last time, the x-axis is Days since first detected case outside China. Every 6 days the cases are doubling like clockwork. I am fully stocked up waiting to see what happens next but it doesn't look good, looks more and more like Wuhan numbers but now at the international level.



See last chart from Feb 16

Indeed. China NOT being the epicenter seems to be closer to the truth. As we now..most of the time truth doesn't matter, only what's documented… A sophisticated cover story and made up response to something world leaders can't figure out..a diversion if you will with China paid to be the fall guy?a reply to: Bicent

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
Canadian medical experts say the country's already overstretched emergency rooms would find it difficult to cope with a true outbreak of the novel Coronavirus,

bc.ctvnews.ca...

Thank you for your honesty Canada

In Quebec I can track hospital bed occupancy on the official website of IndexSante. Yes it is showing 100% occupancy but this is normal during flu season. If I see a big jump in patients going to emergency in the province I will let you know.

What the hell!? Are they deliberately trying to cross-contaminate medical personnel??

Seven cruise ships to house Wuhan medical workers
China is bringing in seven cruise ships to house medical workers in Wuhan, state media reported.

The first of these ships, the Blue Whale, arrived in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, on Friday from Yichang, a nearby city down the Yangtze River.

The seven ships will provide 1,469 beds in total.

www.aljazeera.com...

a reply to: confiden

Thanks Confiden, glad to see you are still keeping an eye on things. Also being into numbers glad to have you on board.

Your chart outside China is worrying. I've done one without the cruise data, which was a bit more promising, but now with Iran, South Korea and Italy, it is tending toward exponential like yours. 6 day doubling might be hopeful based on my modelling.

Have you looked at data for China not including Hubei? Have a look, it's quite amazing how neatly it fits the quadratic. 99.9% I think it was a few days ago. would love your insights.

Regards.

originally posted by: clay2 baraka
What the hell!? Are they deliberately trying to cross-contaminate medical personnel??

Seven cruise ships to house Wuhan medical workers
China is bringing in seven cruise ships to house medical workers in Wuhan, state media reported.

The first of these ships, the Blue Whale, arrived in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak, on Friday from Yichang, a nearby city down the Yangtze River.

The seven ships will provide 1,469 beds in total.

www.aljazeera.com...

SO they are building 19 new hospitals AND they need this ship too??? Even though we've been told it's "slowing down"??

The NY post is a tabloid, but IMO not any more than Fox, CNN or Aljazeera. Seems like tabloid journalism rules the day when its all said and done…at least in the US. At least its predictable…most of the time…this time, seems like all the rags have been caught in a bit of a compromising position.I understand it being a fluid and evolving situation..,its like 'someones' playing a longshot with an ace in the hole. Hopefully for us its not a bluff.a reply to: clay2 baraka

originally posted by: confiden
a reply to: confiden

February 22
I am updating and posting a new chart for confirmed coronavirus cases outside China. I am tracking them in Excel using data from John Hopkins dashboard. Just like last time, the x-axis is Days since first detected case outside China. Every 6 days the cases are doubling like clockwork. I am fully stocked up waiting to see what happens next but it doesn't look good, looks more and more like Wuhan numbers but now at the international level.

See last chart from Feb 16

The cruise ship data should be removed, also South Korea has 400 cases from a church, so not as bad as your graph says with these taken into consideration, a third(ish) are from a cruise ship. Yes it’s spreading, but nothing like China at the moment, not to say hit can’t or won’t happen.

The likelihood of Israeli citizens being infected with the coronavirus has “risen significantly,” Health Ministry director-general Moshe Bar Siman Tov warned on Saturday evening.

His statement came after nine South Koreans tested positive for coronavirus after returning home on February 15 from an eight-day visit to Israel. While it’s unknown whether the group contracted the virus before or after their return to South Korea, the Health Ministry is operating on the assumption that they arrived in Israel as carriers of the virus, which has a 14-day incubation period during which those infected are asymptomatic.

Speaking to reporters in Tel Aviv, Bar Siman Tov said the group had likely come into contact with “hundreds” of Israelis during their stay in the country. The Health Ministry published the details of their itinerary, including visits to numerous Jerusalem churches, the Dead Sea, Masada, Beersheba, Caesarea and Hebron’s Cave of the Patriarchs.

www.jpost.com...

a reply to: billjenkins589

I think it reflects the hunger of the 24-hour news cycle and the lack of solid information in terms of details most people can understand, so they devolve to theory and educated guesses.

a reply to: Adski989

You have to leave the church data in for South Korea.

That may have been an intentional incident for them, but the Korean authorities cannot track them, and they are not answering when they get called. So they are very much on the table in terms of spreading this thing in the wild right now.

It's an anomaly, but you have to leave them in I think.

originally posted by: confiden

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
Canadian medical experts say the country's already overstretched emergency rooms would find it difficult to cope with a true outbreak of the novel Coronavirus,

bc.ctvnews.ca...

Thank you for your honesty Canada

In Quebec I can track hospital bed occupancy on the official website of IndexSante. Yes it is showing 100% occupancy but this is normal during flu season. If I see a big jump in patients going to emergency in the province I will let you know.

Yes I believe the UK is much like this. I would be surprised if many places are different. I'm sure many beds can be made free by removing some red tape and cancelling non-urgent surgeries etc (difficult decisions as a doctor in the UK said in an interview), but not enough if this thing has the potential that I believe it does.

a reply to: clay2 baraka

IMHO straight off … mostly medical personnel try super hard, but a level above that, nobody really cares about the actual medical personnel, and overall, the medical personnel are just 'expendable' when viewed from the perspective of the so-called 'greater good'.

But, to be totally honest, I agreed to be 'expendable' when I took the oath to join the healthcare profession; so, medical people are just going to keep being such, expenses / such be damned. At least the healthcare oath keepers will do it like that.

a reply to: Adski989

I don't understand why you would remove data points like the cases on the cruise ship and from the church. The fact that we found and measured those 2 clusters they should remain. It's important to keep all measured data points to get a realistic picture, the clusters are good because they reflect how fast it is spreading, they are not an "outlier" number to be discarded. IMHO