Corona Virus Updates Part 3

How in hell can the virus be stabilizing (According to this), when it should be doubling every couple days (According to a study. Not sure which one).

I don't trust this. Here in the NL there was a very reputable news source confirming several infections. A bit later... *poof* info gone. These damn governments..

originally posted by: kwakakev
Brave Chinese heckles CCP，real footage of coronavirus in China,Wuhan

A brave person calls out Wechat censorship at a CCP meeting. The breakdown of transportation is affecting agriculture production reaching the people. What does get through is getting more expensive.

My Family is Treating People with Corona Virus in New York

A New York medical worker expresses his frustrations in the government management of the situation. Fears for his family who is also on the front lines in the medical community.

# eh, so if there's merit there, much of China is just shutting down....

So the real question is what are the signs were looking for if this i s indeed happening....

a reply to: Rich Z

I obviously don’t know which law they are citing because they won’t say.

I agree with you actually.

HIPA is speculation and others on Twitter were talking about it.

New report:
Do not violate the International Health Regulations during the COVID-19 outbreak

theLancet.com

Basically, it's against the law to try and stop an outbreak by limiting travel which might affect trade, and the WHO is there to make sure trade continues. They quite hilariously allude to it being a breach of human rights too, but it's trade.

Countries can limit travel with scientific evidence backing up their precautions. So if science starts to suggest "Houston, we have a problem", a new paper is produced to counter it. Restrictions can never therefore be justified.

If the WHO was meant to prevent or contain outbreaks, it is not fit for purpose. This doesn't appear to be the point of the WHO at all. By the time the science is irrefutable, it is too late. WHO has done it's job, trade continued as long as possible.

"The intention of the International Health Regulations (IHR) is that countries should not take needless measures that harm people or that disincentivise countries from reporting new risks to international public health authorities"

They are absolutely disincentivising honest reporting and science because at the very least you will be ruined or face legal action.

"In imposing travel restrictions against China during the current outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), many countries are violating the IHR. We—16 global health law scholars—came to this conclusion"

They've called in the lawyers.

About every 6-7 days looks to be the doubling period. Quarantine procedures will slow down the rate of infections. If it was something like Ebola with a very rapid infection period like 3 days there is good chance quarantine will work in stopping it.

With some reports of 14-24 days for infections to develop it is going to take a long time to get on top of this one. The practicality and effectiveness of any quarantine policy is going to be stretch. At this time I am expecting about 2-3 months for a significant number of cases to start developing in this area.

New paper estimates between 760k and 1.3million infected in Wuhan
www.medrxiv.org...

Calculates R0 of 7, reduced to 3.24 after public health measures/precautions/quarantine.

Calculates CFR of 0.23% which is nice. Just hope they know how many are actually dead.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Do not violate the International Health Regulations during the COVID-19 outbreak

FEMA camps ...anyone...

a reply to: Asgaard


It is not. Wish people would understand that. 1 by 1 it is increasing. I think in a way, we do have other members here in Japan that are fluent in Japanese, but I have the time to post and the wife is bilingual , well actually she speaks 4 languages, so the translations that are usually given here in English are fairly accurate in English. (not always, hard to translate word for word) but we try our best.

I'll be updating soon. Stay tune. the good with the not so good. anyone here use honey in their making of apple pie?

originally posted by: bally001

Malaysia and Australia have started allowing people from Wuhan to leave quarantine... after a 14day stay.

It's difficult to feel good or bad about this... There is a report stating the incubation is 24days...

I'm really hoping these countries are testing the people several times... and im talking 7-8-9 times.... before they're allowed to leave

currently its 42 days now for the incubation, so its really all up in the air, I guess it depends on the persons health.

As an Australian I'm in two minds about the 14 day release. If one of those released infects anyone else then the responsible agency will be canned.

Okay, 24 days, I'm good with that. Anyone released after this longer period and is responsible for another infection then I guess it's back to the drawing board.

My thoughts,

Bally

a reply to: Agit8dChop

I posted a video done by two WSJ reporters who were in the US evac from China.

The US quarantine involved obsessive temperature checks at regular intervals as well as symptoms monitoring leading to temp checks/testing, and a tight scheduling of group activities so that contacts could be monitored and tracked in case someone did come down with it.

There was testing too, but it wasn't constant like the temp and symptom monitoring was.

According to the reporter, people were nervous about the scheduled group activities because no one wanted to risk getting sick in case someone else might have it.

Side point: (mods delete if you wish)

FL Health Department is a joke. My son suffered lead poisoning last year from our rental. They.wouldn't do a thing!

Had to get on leadnet and complain about no one caring.. they did NOT like that at all. Someone at state level (vs local) send 3 top teir environmental specialist and biologicial hazard dudes. Also a JOKE.

We came out of pocket quite a bit to pay for our expert lead risk assessor. He was seasoned, diligent, self trained (classes and such, not college). He reminded me of how serious the issue was. Showing up doning booties and gloves, changing his disposibles at every room entrance as not to track the dust around.

State came in, no booties, no gloves. They had scrappers and pencils and poked and proded and disturbed hella dust while my 3 children were playing in the next room.

From my own experience with them, they are not thorough- they are not careful- and they only show up when it LOOKS bad if they don't... so if we had cases here, I would bet they would stay silent until it leaked and people were complaining to.higher ups about it.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Basically, it's against the law to try and stop an outbreak by limiting travel which might affect trade, and the WHO is there to make sure trade continues. They quite hilariously allude to it being a breach of human rights too, but it's trade.

Yeah, tough pill to swallow that one. Sounds like the WHO is more focused on the worlds health than the individuals. In trying to engage these issues this virus bring in a logical manner, I tend to agree. I do not like coming to these conclusions.

When compared to the alternative option of implementing a quarantine effective enough to limit the spread of this virus, it will be a long, brutal and devastating policy. I can foresee a higher death toll with this option and if it does fail to work everyone will be in a worst position to recover. I do not like coming to these conclusions even more.

A level of quarantine for those that are infected is important to reduce the rate of spread. Public information is also important so people can respond in a responsible manner to the challenges and risks. I don't like the thought that 0.2-20% of the population will die from this virus in the next year or two. I don't like the thought of everything get sent back to the dark ages either.

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

You tube just shut his video down My Family is Treating People with Corona Virus in New York

I saw it, he is very believable. He said there are 6 cases he knew about. His wife works at the hospital where some of them were being tested some were sent home being positive. The hospital has been given a gag order. Its time for the media to start doing the job of reporting the truth.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

I agree with first 2 points. CFR I think is very understated due to deaths not correctly reported. Which is quite obvious at this point.

I believe it has been admitted in Wuhan that the deaths were misreported but can’t find a link atm.

I wonder if we’ll see papers written about the Diamond Princess. 520 of 3000(?) got the virus some while under quarantine conditions. I’m personally feeling it’s airborne and was circulating inside the ship. It might be interesting to look at a geo map of the ship and which cabins had infected people over time.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
Have enough non-Chinese, non-Asian decent been infected to make a proper comparison?

I think you mean '... been confirmed infected. You have to be tested to be known/confirmed.

This thing has been in the wild, with infected out of WuHan flying all around the world, for months, and for the first two months, traveling unimpeded (before any lockdowns).

It has been suggested, and I don't disagree, that there could be hundreds even thousands infected here in the US.

I say, if this turns out to be true, that is good news, because it means it isn't any more virulent/deadly than the flu.

German Contracts Coronavirus from Chinese Colleague in 1st Case of Human-to-Human Transmission in Europe

Tested positive for the virus. Apparently is asymptomatic - at least no mention of condition, and it seems to be turning out, this means they aren't sick.

"This assumes many would need serious medical intervention. I'm just not seeing that. I could be wrong, but - where is the evidence they do?"

We have established that Europeans can get the disease.

Where? Please post to any reports of any non-chines/non-asians getting extremely sick with this disease. You do understand that testing positive for the virus is not the same as 'getting the disease', right.

I'm not saying there can't be any, I'm just saying, there are not very many cases, or we'd know it.

Now all we need is a large infected pool. Obviously we can use China for example.

No. That is the point.

We can't use China as an example, because all of the evidence shows that it affects them much, much more seriously than others.

There is plenty of evidence in China of large amounts of people needing serious medical help.

Yes. Where have you been during these three humongous threads where this has been discussed, and it pointed out that the same is not happening for non-chines/asians outside China.

Do you have any research that suggests that only Asians are the ones needing serious medical intervention? Are you assuming asians have a genetic disposition? If you are, do you have evidence?

Yes. The actual, real, ongoing track record of this thing. As I said, it has been discussed since very early on in the first thread.

originally posted by: JoeRivers
So, it was discussed that china raised the child cap to 2. What if...they planned to bolster the population, then used this to cull the older and weak. Think about it, they would be left with a sizable population of younger, healther people than can be put to work...further bolstering their economy after the dust settles. They would be stronger overall after a few years....

If you read my post, that is precisely what I said... ?

originally posted by: kwakakev
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Basically, it's against the law to try and stop an outbreak by limiting travel which might affect trade, and the WHO is there to make sure trade continues. They quite hilariously allude to it being a breach of human rights too, but it's trade.

...quarantine effective enough to limit the spread of this virus, it will be a long, brutal and devastating policy. I can foresee a higher death toll with this option

I was thinking along the same lines. 41% of the UK's food is imported for example. But then again 70% is thrown away... But what I mean to say is, lockdown didn't have to be total. International travel would still be possible. But those that do would pay a hefty price for specialised flights and quarantine/testing/tracking. Imports still possible with decontamination.

Problem is the whole world would need to join in, otherwise you risk someone milking the situation in case it turns out to be a false alarm. We all do it together, the markets equalise, the world keeps turning, containment possible until vaccine or threat otherwise alleviated. Instead, it is now too late, and the cost may be much more dear, at least to everyone but "the powers that be".

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

I found another video that You tube hasn't taken down yet. www.youtube.com...

a reply to: Joeshiloh

Thing is though that if this actually has a CFR of less .5 as alluded to in the paper above, how big a worry is it? It's something to monitor and be aware of, but it's even less worrisome than regular flu if that's true.

And with numbers like that it becomes more likely once again that my family did have it and we unknowingly spread it around us last month.