Quake Watch 2013

reply to post by Nyiah


This might be of interest.

Seismic hazard map of France. Shows CH as well.

Here in south France, we're getting an uncommon amount of seismic activity in the last couple of days!

I have been having dreams of big earthquake disasters too- I wonder if I wasn't actually feeling that activity on a subconscious level.

What I don't like is a couple that have been happenign exactly in a spot in the Med Sea that I had a dream about maybe a year ago (or less, I don't remember), in which earthquakes happened there, and then an unexpected volcanic eruption, causing tsunamis along our coast. This was being narrated to me in my dream, with a view of a map, with the point of eruption on it. It looked to be in exactly the same place as a couple earthquakes yesterday!

Okay, I am not going to go claiming some dreams have much to do with reality, but I would feel better if I could find some sources I could study to learn more about the plates in this area. (If anyone knows of any references ?)

editted to add- actually, now I started looking through your links in your siggy, Puterman, and see there's some interesting references there- appreciative of that!

The upcoming week (Thursday) sees the anniversary of the pair of Mag 8 earthquakes off Sumatra.

2012-04-11T08:38:37.000Z, 2.311, 93.0632, 8.6, 22.9, off the west coast of northern Sumatra
2012-04-11T10:43:09.000Z, 0.7731, 92.4522, 8.2, 16.4, off the west coast of northern Sumatra

Just wondering if you guys have seen this yet?

theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com...

reply to post by antar


Thanks for that. I had not seen it. Not on my best loved site but interesting and something to investigate for certain.


I am having a big problem getting my head round the earthquake statistics. I have mentioned this before.

If you have 200 Mag 5.5 earthquakes then the average is 5.5. HOW then is it that as the NUMBER of Mag 5, Mag 7 and Mag 8 quakes drops the ENERGY (Magnitude) average per quake increases? It is not logical Mr Spock. For this to happen the fewer quakes would have to have increased magnitudes.

You can see the effect clearly in my weekly analysis. It is almost as if, with the exception of the mag 6s, Mother Earth says you have an allocation of quakes and if the number drops the energy must go up to compensate. It will be interesting to see if the reverse happens.

It is most marked for converted Mag 5 and another interesting thing is that over the year the difference between published and converted numbers has been falling every week which would suggest that more Mw values are being used. Again why is this a one way trend (so far since December 2012)??

Originally posted by PuterMan
If you have 200 Mag 5.5 earthquakes then the average is 5.5. HOW then is it that as the NUMBER of Mag 5, Mag 7 and Mag 8 quakes drops the ENERGY (Magnitude) average per quake increases? It is not logical Mr Spock. For this to happen the fewer quakes would have to have increased magnitudes.

You can see the effect clearly in my weekly analysis. It is almost as if, with the exception of the mag 6s, Mother Earth says you have an allocation of quakes and if the number drops the energy must go up to compensate. It will be interesting to see if the reverse happens.

Puterman, I just looked over your data for the week ending 5 April 2013.
This is rolling 52-week data correct?

And as you pointed out a few posts earlier, it is coming up on the 1-year anniversary of the double intraplate mag 8's....
So, could it be that those 2 earthquakes (mag 8.2 & 8.6) and their enormous energy have been skewing your energy stats higher for the past year?
Next week should show a big drop in total energy released, as those quakes drop out of the data for the year, correct?
That will leave a much smaller energy "pie" to slice amongst approximately the same number of quakes==lower mag equivilant.

In other words, what would your graphs have looked like over the past year minus 2 quakes and the associated 627.1 petajoules of energy released.

Even a year seems too short to analyze earthquake statistics. Maybe over a 10/20/30 year period, the average magnitude energy equivilant will show itself, without these strange anomalies showing up?

That's all I can come up with.

China interactive map March 2013
mag1= 448, mag2= 833, mag3= 112,
mag4= 21, mag5= 5, mag6= 1, total= 1,420,
total energy released= 101,600.279 TTNT
see also
China page Jan 2012 -April 2013

I just realized that my co-ordinates for the search doesn't go far enough east, as the E. RUSSIA-N.E. CHINA BORDER REG. 6.6mb of 05/04/2013 didn't show up in the April data
dammit I'll have to do them all again

Also available from the tab menu on that 2nd link March data for ;
Iran
Greece
and these three have their own monthly pages elsewhere;
Turkey
Italy
New Zealand

Its very active today here in California and Nevada.

Quake cam here in Los Angeles wont stop twitching.

abclocal.go.com...

reply to post by Olivine

So, could it be that those 2 earthquakes (mag 8.2 & 8.6) and their enormous energy have been skewing your energy stats higher for the past year?
Next week should show a big drop in total energy released, as those quakes drop out of the data for the year, correct?
That will leave a much smaller energy "pie" to slice amongst approximately the same number of quakes==lower mag equivilant.

In other words, what would your graphs have looked like over the past year minus 2 quakes and the associated 627.1 petajoules of energy released.

Unfortunately no since although I do calculate a total for the Global Single Magnitude (which as you say will drop next week) the figures to which I was referring are the individual figures for each magnitude band.

As the number of mag 5 quakes goes down the average energy per quake goes up and that is very curious. Only the Mag 6 band does not do this.

reply to post by PuterMan


I figured it wasn't that simple. Oh well, I tried.

TWC Breaking‏@TWCBreaking
BREAKING: Shallow 6.3 #quake in southern Iran; USGS model shows 63% chance of 100+ deaths, 28% chance 1000+ deaths: wxch.nl...


MAP 5.4 2013/04/09 12:05:40 28.491 51.685 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
MAP 6.3 2013/04/09 11:52:50 28.500 51.591 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN


BBC Breaking News‏@BBCBreaking
Update: Earthquake epicentre is 89km (55 miles) from Iran's nuclear power station #Bushehr bbc.in...

Just had the following notification in a short while ago:

Preliminary Earthquake Report
Magnitude 6.3
Date-Time • 9 Apr 2013 11:52:50 UTC
• 9 Apr 2013 16:22:50 near epicenter
• 9 Apr 2013 11:52:50 standard time in your timezone
Location 28.500N 51.591E
Depth 10 km
Distances • 89 km (55 mi) SE of Bandar Bushehr, Iran
• 92 km (57 mi) SSE of Borazjan, Iran
• 103 km (63 mi) WSW of Firuzabad, Iran
• 124 km (76 mi) S of Kazerun, Iran
• 272 km (168 mi) NNE of Manama, Bahrain
Location Uncertainty Horizontal: 14.2 km; Vertical 2.8 km
Parameters Nph = 157; Dmin = 1209.1 km; Rmss = 0.76 seconds; Gp = 25°
Version = 7
Event ID us b000g2y5

Quite a shallow one. Isn't this quite close to one of the Iranian reactors at Bushehr?

When I read the location of the quake I directly checked the nuclear plants location since this name somehow seemed familiar... hmm I hope there is everything ok.

UPDATE:- The Siraj highway is quite close to the epicenter and around 16-22km from Khormoj. 3 people have died, and there are helicopters and assistance being sent to the region. In addition, many landslides have been seen.

earthquake-report.com...

Continuous updates and maps of quakes(aftershoks etc) at above link
Rainbows
Jane

I'm sure it is just one of those odd coinkydinks, but a 6.3 in Iran, near their nuke facility, On Iran's "National Nuclear Day", as they open a new uranium-processing site.

www.cnn.com...

Where is my tin foil.

Peace

Didn't see the small one in Yellowstone posted... here ya go.

MAP 3.1 2013/04/09 09:33:42 44.662 -110.460 0.9 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING

earthquake.usgs.gov...

UPDATE 15:34- Number of injured persons rose to 800. In the meantime, Japan and Turkey offered their help for earthquake victims.

UPDATE 15:02- 31 people were conformed dead in Bushehr so far.

Can't find anything about aftershocks though.

Quote at link provided in my last post

Rainbows
Jane

6.2ML, 29 km South-East of Khormog, Bushehr Province
details
Faults within 150 km:
MFF5 (Length: 74 km) , Distance to epicenter: 14 km
BORAZJAN_F (Length: 168 km) , Distance to epicenter: 19 km
MFF3 (Length: 292 km) , Distance to epicenter: 22 km

aftershocks can be followed here at IIEES

history 2102 all quakes and 1900-2012 mag 5's

Ugh....lately, I have been suspicous of any quakes in the high 4 to 5 range, that are shallow and in strategic locations.

Hopefully we don't see anything like that today....

when I consider all the aftershocks and the lack of foreshocks, I am thinking that there will be something bigger coming. I hope I am wrong