Stock broker friend of mine, says all traders are buying land, gold, silver....

Originally posted by Illusionsaregrander

Originally posted by OBE1


It will be the same with Gold...a parabolic blow-off top involving a broader cross-section of the general public. A top that only a blind man can miss. Unfortunately, the Johnny come lately[s] and those blinded by greed will be left holding the bag. IOW, when a few of the naysayers finally convert to buyers...I might be one of the investors they're buying it from

Another reason its unwise for people with few assets to buy gold. I am sure when you are selling it to the "suckers" you wont be telling them you think its going down.

Personally I think it's most wise to invest in precious metals, yes, even now, especially now...regardless of position size. I think past performance bears that out, and the next few years will also. It's a matter of when to buy, and more importantly, when to sell, but if a person isn't motivated to protect their investment...study market fundamentals (modicum), or simply lacks interest in such matters...they're better-off looking outside the markets imho. Still, many will jump-in without bothering to educate themselves...but that's what makes market. They will either buy the top, or overplay their position looking for that extra buck, and yes, in the end it will cost them...a spiritual experience of sorts. It's the nature of all bull markets to blow-off in a parabolic crescendo...a product of human nature actually.

Just as I have tried to inspire confidence in fellow investors throughout the productive past 10yrs...when I believe it's time to sell I'll be sounding the alarm to family, friends, and on every message board I frequent...as will many others.

Equally grateful for the give and take IAG, and wishing you fortune with your endeavors.

Just in case there is anyone curious, or interested in gold...one excellent overview thoroughly recommended can be found here: www.gata.org... It is essential reading, whether you like or dislike gold.

There is also a good piece on zerohedge right now (full interview at King's World News) on the gold market and state of world affairs.

The thing is, you really should be thinking on a global macro scale to understand what gold is doing, why it is doing it, and where it will possibly go. Forget not being able to eat gold, or worrying about roving hoards and zombies. That is another topic, and if you are worried about such things, gold is definitely lower down on the objective list.

The zerohedge piece mentions: "the recently popularized concept by Jim Rickards, about an alternative currency basket (aka a new China-Russia-Germany axis) backed by actual physical resources (a modified version of the much dreaded gold standard): "there will be a standardization, a basket of currencies somewhere in the world, that will then become a competing reserve currency very quickly overnight." Most relevantly, Davies answers what he thinks the fair price of gold is: "between $10,000 and $15,000."

He continues: "If you took all the global monetary bases, and I take the G-20 in that case, we currently have a currency that is only backed by gold at 0.26%, and if you look back on a historical precedent, back in the '40-'60's, banks typically have a backing of 40%. In the 1980's that backing got back to 120-140%." This indeed shows that in the 1980s gold was overvalued, at least from an M1 standpoint. The same can not be said about our current mad money printing period.

So what does Ben think the FV of gold is? "If I said gold is to be at 40% just in terms of US encumberment, you can argue for a case of $70-80 trillion's worth of dollars, then we would have a price of $36,000. And if were to halve that, we would have a price of between $10-15,000."

How would the repricing mechanism occur? "If we were not to get a standardization before, I believe like all bull markets, there would be a mania point. There is an eligibility for gold, and it is being considered as money. Gold has really been considered a barbaric relic - I was ridiculed on the floor in 2003, 2004 for even trading gold. When people like Faber asked the question how many actually hold gold, only 2-3% put their hands up. If we see more QE2, if we see more purchases of assets [by the Fed], it would horrendously denigrate the balance sheet of the Fed, which is already not worth the paper it is sitting on, I think in that situation gold is going to be considerably higher."

www.zerohedge.com...


The full interview at king world news is at kingworldnews.com...

Whether you agree with the above or not, you should at least consider it and the possible implications coming our way.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


Every commodity ever traded has gone through this unstoppable bullish or unstoppable bearish momentum at some point.

It is definitely golds turn, no doubt (along with other metals/mining plays). Am I as sure as I was about it in January.. not really - especially lately

No one knows, I am just not putting another dollar into it though. Top could be in already or it could be at $1500/GC. I really don't know and I am not up for venturing guesses either. Gold has the tendency to make people look quite foolish, especially me.

I am more of an index futures kind of person and am not a fan of golds volatility as my mental game suffers. Index Futures IMO offer opportunities like a currency displays (SP500) and not so much the further you branch off. Meaning DJIA Futures > volatility (less volume) and RT (russell 2000) > vix than DJIA ... -> Emerging Markets such as MSCI Singapore > Russell 2000 etc.. --->

The further you head away from the SP500, the greater the volatility. This is due for more reasons than you can count, but quantitatively the SP500 is geared towards international hedging exposure which offers the most liquid and deep markets.

So if there is a rush you are not going to get limit locked out lets say as opposed to the lumber market for example. That is an extreme scenario of course, but will happen again. It has happened before in Sep 2008 overnight, SP500 limit locked down overnight and reopened in the morning. That is as close to an international financial disaster that you could ask for. When it reopens, good luck. Guys like me and you are margin called. Unfortunately we do not have a seat on the floor of the CME to ease our pain.

Originally posted by Mr.Hyde
reply to post by cloudbreak

 

So if I have gold and the SHTF I'll be okay? ((snip))

[edit on 18-7-2010 by Mr.Hyde]

I'm turning dollars into gold, for one, because if all my savings becomes worthless or gets deleted, at least I'll have something of universal value. I can cash in gold coins at some Costa Rica el bank-o for local stripper friendly paper money. Or have it to barter with, the dollar might be worth crap.. but my gold coin is worth something in euros, rubles, BsF, yen... it's better than nothing.

Then again I'm not sticking around... I don't plan on trying to convince Punjeep at 7-11 to accept gold for $100 bread.

All you guys into the hunter gatherer food growing frontier lifestyle, more power too ya, sincerely.. Taking a boat south where chaos isn't, banks accept gold coins and hookers are legal... sounds a lot more palatable to me personally.

Originally posted by GovtFlu
All you guys into the hunter gatherer food growing frontier lifestyle, more power too ya, sincerely.. Taking a boat south where chaos isn't, banks accept gold coins and hookers are legal... sounds a lot more palatable to me personally.

I know next to nothing about ocean navigation, nor sailing. However for the price of one ticket to wherever you're going I will provide security and alot of added firepower.

A little masochist porn worthy of careful consideration imo.

Note that Kress gives us a Gold-top target date of 2014, with a potential price target of $6000oz (in line with my own projections). If you own precious metals/PM shares (especially Silver) you might want to pin those numbers to your refrigerator door as a reminder. If general equities get hit soon, as I anticipate, the baby (PM's) will likely get tossed-out with the bath water ala-2008...Silver being particularly vulnerable to a viscious drubbing given it's broad industrial profile.

If we do get caught in the downdraft it will be temporary. Just remember Kress' targets, acknowledge another righteous buying opportunity...and rest easy

Last Bull Standing 2011

Originally posted by Leemur
I've been homeless for several years, after deciding to quit my job and focus on making art. I haven't tried to get another job because I don't care about money. I care about art. It's great, I don't buy # I don't need and I've pared down my material possessions to mainly clothes, books and art supplies. I've learned to survive on very little, sometimes without shelter or food (and I've never asked anyone for money.) and sure it's not easy, life never is, but I'm happy that I've chosen to live this way, because it's made me strong and I'm ready, no matter what happens, to continue existing the way I do.

so . . . are you logging onto ATS from your art book or from your pile of dirty laundry?

the traders i know are still largely trading the markets (stock, bonds, and currencies). the ones i know that are 'buying' metals are buying shares of miners and ETFs, nothing physical for the most part. property? again, not yet from what i've seen/heard. as a rule, the traders i know still tend to have the property they owned at the start of the market slide, but i'm not aware of any who have bought significant new acres. could be though. the ones i've spoken to directly about property are still expecting a sharp falloff in prices and have cash accounts earmarked for adding property a bit further down in price than today.

so i guess, long story short, my broker friends are behaving differently than your broker friend.

these are scary times though. do what you need to do to feel better about your world.

i dont believe you, sorry I need proof, tell him to come on abovetopsecret.com

Good traders cannot say they are 100% sure about any future market predictions.

If the impeding chaos was 100% we could all get very rich, and so could the traders who are removing their capital from the market. I don't believe any trader with half a brain who "knew" inflation was about to go through the roof would take his money out of the bank and stash it in a vault.

Nothing to see here people, your savings are as safe as they've ever been.

has the economy collapsed yet? can i sell my gold and silver coins for food and ammo yet? oh... not yet?? oh ok ill check back in 5 years....

Originally posted by GovtFlu

Originally posted by Mr.Hyde
reply to post by cloudbreak

 

So if I have gold and the SHTF I'll be okay? ((snip))

[edit on 18-7-2010 by Mr.Hyde]

I'm turning dollars into gold, for one, because if all my savings becomes worthless or gets deleted, at least I'll have something of universal value. I can cash in gold coins at some Costa Rica el bank-o for local stripper friendly paper money. Or have it to barter with, the dollar might be worth crap.. but my gold coin is worth something in euros, rubles, BsF, yen... it's better than nothing.

Then again I'm not sticking around... I don't plan on trying to convince Punjeep at 7-11 to accept gold for $100 bread.

All you guys into the hunter gatherer food growing frontier lifestyle, more power too ya, sincerely.. Taking a boat south where chaos isn't, banks accept gold coins and hookers are legal... sounds a lot more palatable to me personally.

I like CR and its people very much, and it's likely the most decent country south of texas border but if you think that they will take you in as family after your money runs out you are quite mistaken. While they will steal from you if they can, they as yet wont physically harm you, unless your on the carribean side. You will always be a gringo outsider and if they need to lighten the national load for any reason youre the first one off the boat. Better read up on their immigration laws and tax policies before you arrive with your stash, which of course is gonna be illegal to take out of the US. Americans have been taught that nationalism is bad, by people who are themselves virulently nationalistic. It's not about fairness after all, it's about winning for your side.

If the country goes all out crazy and inflation goes through the roof, i can guarantee you that gold will not be traded.For the ones who think gold will be a huge assett, your wrong.For all of the gold you have purchased how much gold do you have in your posession? It is all bought on paper just like all the other stocks.So when or if the country goes mad do you think you will get your gold in the mail and people will be trading it? ROFL!!!! People will be bartering their services and doing other things.Gold is the most useless commodity to invest in.The gains over the years are soo minimal, i'd rather stash my casdh under my bed so to speak.I love this site with all the fear mongering.I think there are a few on here who want the country to collapse so their form of entertainment goes to the next level.

reply to post by wayouttheredude


Where do you buy your coins? My boyfriend has several that he acquired in the late 90's for @ $90. I am interested in stocking up on more.

reply to post by dominicus


Am i the only one who thinks buying gold may be a bad idea?

Ok so who has all the gold? Who was it FDR Who took (stole) all the gold once?
And who made him do it? Was it not the elite and FED?

So ok you buy gold maybe not from the elite but whoever and do you get the bars right there and then? No you get a piece of paper but lets say you do get the bars.

Now the Us eCONomy goes down hill faster then Monica lewinsky (lol sorry)
then your like hey no biggie i got all that gold, but hold up because Obama comes around and say hey we need the gold so we are taking it.

Then what? No gold no money no anything.

And is it not imposable that the buy gold now thing is just another way to control the market?

Or am i wrong?

Originally posted by GunzCoty
reply to post by dominicus

 

Am i the only one who thinks buying gold may be a bad idea?

Ok so who has all the gold? Who was it FDR Who took (stole) all the gold once?
And who made him do it? Was it not the elite and FED?

So ok you buy gold maybe not from the elite but whoever and do you get the bars right there and then? No you get a piece of paper but lets say you do get the bars.

Now the Us eCONomy goes down hill faster then Monica lewinsky (lol sorry)
then your like hey no biggie i got all that gold, but hold up because Obama comes around and say hey we need the gold so we are taking it.

Then what? No gold no money no anything.

And is it not imposable that the buy gold now thing is just another way to control the market?

Or am i wrong?

Am I the only one that comprehends the defeatist servile idiocy of this post?

Gummint may take away your investment or security so may as well not have any so gubmint may leave you alone and go for richer pickings elsewhere.
Well this solves the question of the general level of intelligence.

If you are making money, and have money to spend? Yeah, buy some gold. Especially if you are not "fit" for an uncertain future. Meaning, can you do practically ANY job that comes along, or are you JUST a broker, a teller, a very fat feller?
Look at some third world countries and their markets. People barter, they haggle, they watch their stuff like a hawk. They want something of value for their stuff. Maybe you can sweep up the place?

I think you move to a small town. Get to know people. Get an acre or two of GOOD soil, good well, close to town. Learn to garden, it isn't easy, but it is fun. Volunteer, help your neighbor. After you have saved a life or two, you are probably going to be alright because people in small towns don't forget.

(A little drama, but true nonetheless.)

Originally posted by mordant1
reply to post by JR MacBeth

 

Gold? possibly, but it is a mere commodity and can be secreted away by those who refuse to play.. As a lawyer you know title is a commodity too. Title to everything: land, immutable land and the resources held within and beneath, including future gold silver what have you. Title to food grown on it, water that runs off it.
What else is there for the men that already have alladins cave in the next room?
Control the land, control those that you allow to be on it, or off it.
Game over. Long live the kings!

Best deal? Cash it all in and more to Hedo permanently

Can I get an 'amen'?

[edit on 18-7-2010 by mordant1]

Ya, Amen, and another toast to the true hedonists of the world!

You mention land, title. Lots of people including land in their thinking, which is good, depending upon the various scenarios that play out. And if we look to the very wealthy, having a place "in the country" always played well, whether in times of war, or pestilence, etc.

But one of the scenarios talked about has to do with "depopulation". One of the consequences of such a thing would be a huge "devaluation" in land. Such a thing has happened before, on a large scale, centuries ago, with the Black Death.

In the decades that followed those terrible plague years, whole villages could be found to be vacant, abandoned by the few survivors that remained. Huge tracts of land went without a farmer for years to come.

As it turned out, it was "good" for the survivors, because many were able to appropriate the property of the victims. But as far as a "value" of land was concerned, it wasn't what it had been before the plague. Untended land was plentiful. Of course, times were very different, and the nobles primarily expanded their holdings....

Hmmm. Maybe times aren't so different after all. Maybe our masters are about to expand their holdings. Maybe the survivors will be "lucky", and get to work for those powerful enough to take, and hold.

This leads into the "ammo advocates". Yes, they have a good point, especially for any chaotic period that may intervene, whether long or short. And just as gold has been going up, so has ammo. Indications that the masses do assign value.

But back to gold, to be fair to this thread. Beyond land, and ammo, we can also look to history for indications of the role gold would play. Some might recall remarks made about the recent Asian migrations, Vietnamese who were able to bribe their way onto a boat, with gold. But long before that, history showed us a "wandering" people, mainly in Europe in the last few centuries, the Jews. They're an interesting case, because they largely avoided being tied down to land. Many, especially among the wealthier, preferred to hold gold. Easily transportable, easily hidden, recognized in every nation (and often they could count on being kicked out of one, having to pick up and move to another). There might be a lesson there.

What if we were forced to leave our precious piece of land? What would we do, where would we go? And what would we take, to wherever, in order to start again? Well, you can pack a lot of value in a very small space with gold.

JR

reply to post by mordant1


Black death, nice touch councellor.
One minor point, black death struck all, no real preventative especially as the royalty needed lots of services up close and personal. The officials and officers of the court fell equally. Yea, entire towns abandoned, for a while.
So what?
In current depop parlance, there is an assumption and a mechanism for preservation of the elites and their servants curiously enough at taxpayer expense for enough time to prevent them from participating in the general deathwave.
And as such they likely emerge when the coast is clear avoiding most of the unpleasantness and utilizing whatever tax funded provisions for setting themselves back up in charge. None of the messy and aggravating prevention stuff that they were supposed to do, you know, 'preserve and protect'?, may as well just get it over while they have the seats in this earthly musical chairs game. So the chosen ones will survive in their comforts and security purchased allegedly for the benefit of managing the nation, but stolen from an unthanking public and used manage the nations now inconvenient public into a furnace. A very intentionally provided and very avoidable furnace.
Yersinia pestis was a natural phenomenon, Planned depopulation and intentional aquision of swathes of land for redistribution to clubmembers is a travesty. Imagine what people would do if they realized they choose certain death asigned for themselves by funding the elites secure bunkers and preatorian guard.

[edit on 19-7-2010 by mordant1]

reply to post by mordant1

Did you know the survivors of the black death had the genetic makeup that prevented them from dying from it? A very rare minority. Anyway, their descendants are immune from the AIDS virus and possibly other crap yet to come.
Funny huh?