Stock broker friend of mine, says all traders are buying land, gold, silver....

Originally posted by Mr.Hyde
Very well said. It's reassuring to see calmer heads not focused on disaster fantasies like Mad Maxx or The Road. I think people are allowing their imaginations to take their minds to places they are familiar with such as hollywood movies and science fiction novels. With this mindset we limit ourselves to only reactionary scenarios and we prohibit ourselves from viewing the broader picture.

Originally posted by Studenofhistory
Those brokers are both right AND wrong. They're right in thinking that the US financial system ie. the banks, are in serious trouble and that we are likely to see massive bank failures in the not too distant future.

They're wrong about the impact on prices. $30 beer implies hyper-inflation. If you look at history, the only times any country had hyper-inflation was when it's banking system was stable. Why? Because hyper-inflation is caused by exploding credit and in order to have that you need stable banks. If banks are dropping like flies, they will also be taking a lot of their depositers' money with them and that means a falling, not exploding, money supply. Again history gives us examples of what happens when there are massive bank failures. The 1930's are the best example. You had the opposite of hyper-inflation which is deflation ie. dropping prices. So buying tangible assets such as land, gold and silver is the last thing you should be doing because you can't eat land, gold and silver and as far as farming that land, I don't see stock brokers turning into farmers overnight. An imploding financial system means a lack of liquidity. That means that people and businesses that owe money to the banking system via demand loans, which the banks can call at any time, will be forced to sell whatever assets they might have, including land, gold and silver, in order to pay off those bank loans and avoid bankruptcy. That wave of selling will depress prices for assets including stocks, bonds, land, precious metals, collectibles etc.

Even borrowers who have good credit ratings and are able to make their monthly loan payments will be in danger. In the 30's, a lot of perfectly viable businesses were forced into bankruptcy when the banks called in their loans due to the fact that those businesses weren't able to refinance those called loans somewhere else since ALL banks were in the same situation of having to reduce their total loans in order to keep their loan to reserves ratio within mandated limits.

So the best advice to survive the coming Grand Depression is: get out of debt now, keep your cash out of the banks as cash or at worst, short term treasury bills, stock up on vital items in order to get thru short term shortages and don't show off your wealth if you happen to have a lot.

When we got our loan we made sure that there was no call provision in the package. 30 year fixed. We have our current place paid off and clear. At present with real inflation at 3 to 5% and interest rates on deposits at less than 1% you are falling behind if you have your money in the bank. We have taken a calculated risk on the new place. We are betting that we can pay off the loan in short order with a lot of penny pinching and a little luck.

With the current changes to the Banking regulations, new environmental rules coming on and the reduction in wages and benefits by companies there are a large number of unknowns that we are now facing. The outcome is unknown to all of us and we each must do what we feel is best. I would rather be proactive now than reactive a year from now.

Originally posted by crezo
What use would gold be to anyone, other than the ultra wealthy?

Just wondering as it doesn't seem to make much sense to me in a worse case scenario?

Hi crezo. Do these folks look wealthy ?

Link

Historically the same phenomenon occurred in Weimar Germany, Argentina, Hungary et al. Those with the foresight to convert local currencies into precious metals not only fared best at the level of survival...but they were in position to actually profit when the dust eventually settled...as it always does.

Suggested reading: When money dies: The nightmare of the Weimar collapse

*

To GBM: Pork Bellies..Coffee...Orange Juice are a trade, not an investment...and only for the relatively few that have the skills to successfully trade 'em.

In severe crisis, Gold remains the ultimate currency, the ultimate "store of value". At current prices, one million $ in 1oz Gold Eagles will fit my car's glove-box with room to spare. Good luck warehousing semi-truck loads of soft commodities over the longer-term...and turning a profit.

You only need a small terrain to grow some vegetable and to have some animals (you'll need to kill them yourself), like pigs. That's how my grand parent survived WWII in relatively well conditions. It doesn't need to be isolated. It's just that you need SPACE. Also the proximity to forest allows you to hunt. Living near a forest also provides you ressources such as wood, and food that your domestic animals can find and eat (but that humans can't).

And you can trade food with nearby paysants if you live in rural area.

It's not going to be mad max, so you will still be able to buy things, making gold usefull.

And you will still be working (hopefully), you won't be able to live on your own.

Just take example on Russia in 1999, the government gave everyone a small terrain outside of moscow so that they could grow their own food...



[edit on 18-7-2010 by ickylevel]

Originally posted by wayouttheredude
These run about $145 to $150 right now. Affordable for most working people to put at least one of them back per month. Then when the value of the dollar drops like a rock off a cliff you can convert one of these to the current value in the depreciated federal reserve notes

Were you able to take physical delivery and was there any excuses or delays in delivery?

reply to post by dominicus


ok ok ok. well, while you're hiding under your bed reading/contributing to all the fear porn while living in fear of shadows, i will be enjoying life. (and congrats - you're doing exactly what "they" need you to do)

make no mistake friend - a gang of cave dwelling ragtags needed "someone bigger" to assist them in their efforts, just like the Mexican gangs. being a bad guy takes big $$$ the same as being a good guy. gotta pay for those maps, bombs, contract hired mercs, transportation, planning/travel/meetings, insider information, schematics, building plans, CDOs, voters/votes, globalization, etc somehow.

or did the bad guys simply ATM some of the endless billions from their savings? anyone? bueller???

i'll say it again - NO ONE is going to allow "the store" to be closed for business - ever. not even for a few vacation days, people. the world must continue to turn for the bad guys to continue to survive, too.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
People that are buying straight physical gold right now are braindead, IMHO. Buying at a premium + at an all time (non inflation dollar) high.

I mean you might catch a quick gain, but you gotta sell gold looking long term. I wish I just would have dumped mine at 1250 but got greedy. Will probably unload if something doesn't happen soon (only .2 units at 1165 average).

Also, for those that think gold is that great it isn't even close to the price adjusted for inflation from back in the 80's. I really don't get it, but the ones that are buying physical I think have a screw loose. But I have been wrong before and will be wrong again.

It's good that you consider the possibility of being wrong. Seems like a lot of people responding in this thread feel a bit like you do. They don't really get the whole gold/silver thing.

Lots of responses enjoy repeating the old "you can't eat it" mantra. OK, that may be "true", but that's not what precious metals are about.

As I mentioned early in this thread, it doesn't hurt to look to the very wealthiest people in the world, and see what they are doing. Perhaps it won't matter to the average person if George Soros and Bill Gates, and the Saudi royal family, and the Rothschilds and the Rockefellers are shifting their wealth away from dollars, into gold. But some will see that it could be an indication of what is coming. So, let's look at scenarios a bit.

What is quite likely, and not too far in the future, is a collapse of the US dollar. In terms of timing, it's more likely the Euro will go down first, so maybe people will get that as a warning. But when that occurs, the money must flow somewhere, and it will in the very short-term, flow into US dollars, the path of least resistance. All by design of course. At the point in time when there is no other real game in town (other than gold and silver), our masters will deliberately collapse the dollar, allowing that critical timing to push a huge portion of the world's wealth into their coffers. Call it a kind of "End Game" if you will.

The reality behind that collapse on the one hand is what it has always been. The wealthiest doing what they have always done. But on the other end of it is the rest of us. All the people who have "money" in the bank, their life savings (denominated in "dollars"). Overnight, it can all be gone.

Then what? It would be prudent to have something other than dollars of course, and by this I don't mean Euros! Gold is the default, and has a very long and diverse history of serving as true money, throughout time.

But you made some good points about gold almost seeming absurd, based on it's recent history anyway. Of course, the two contrary notions that you manage to retain are a good indication of why most people out there are so confused when it comes to gold. You mention first that gold is at an "all time high", but quickly concede that it "isn't even close to the price adjusted for inflation from back in the 80's."

Obviously, most people are easily capable of holding two contrary positions at the same time, but if we apply a bit more thought, maybe the wrong one might fall away (which would make more sense). Is gold really "high", or is the "value" in dollars what makes it appear high? If so, then the reality is that the dollars are what is LOSING value.

It is hard to think about, because we are so conditioned to put dollars in front of everything. But continuing with the issue you brought up, what "would be" the price of gold, adjusted for inflation? It depends on how you calculate it of course, but a conservative estimate would be $6,000 per ounce, with other estimates over $20,000, per ounce.

But these are just numbers! I can hear it now. But again, what are the wealthy doing right now? They may not think gold is high at all, which is why they're grabbing as much as they can at this extreme low level.

Of course, those in the know understand that gold has been manipulated, and kept artificially low for a very long time now. It's one of the most important components of the biggest fraud ever perpetrated in history. Some may have heard of Bretton Woods, or what has come after, but the bottom line is that the entire world essentially agreed to allow the private Federal Reserve Bank the privilege of creating "money" out of thin air. Decade, after decade, they accrue unto themselves everything of tangible value, while paying out what one day would become worthless fiat paper.

But to get away with it as long as they have, they had to suppress the gold price. Ingeniously, they did it by looting gold from the central banks of the world! Brits may recall how their mega-retard Gordon Brown decided to sell their nation's gold at the very bottom, basically giving away the true tangible wealth of Britain. Of course, he was duly promoted as a result. But this is how they suppress, and yet, simultaneously accumulate. For those who care, Google-up "GATA".

Could the suppression of gold go on forever? They never intended it to. They knew a time would come when the next phase of their plan would make sense. As the world pulls away from the toxic dollar, all that would be left is gold.

Ah, but THEY have spent a lot of time accumulating just that! Brilliant! But let's not forget who get's hosed in the process...THE WHOLE WORLD.

Thankfully, some of the BRIK nations and China at least have seen the writing on the wall, and have been buying gold to catch up, to have some safety net, before the inevitable happens. China will get the worst of the dollar collapse, but that was always the plan.

All this being said, I actually agree with those who say you can't eat gold! But it's not a "this or that" equation. Yes, we prudently need to prepare in as many areas as we can, have the food, the water, a bug-out plan in case things get catastrophic, but if we casually ignore what the wealthy are doing, then I would suggest we do so at our peril. Because things may not turn out as we think. Could be a lot of scenarios, and a good plan would include some gold and silver.

Last thought about history. The person who mentioned Singapore is right on point. People in Vietnam too. Those who had gold, often lived. Those who could not bribe anyone, died. Read your history, but not just the last 30 years. Gold has a history thousands of years long.

JR

reply to post by JR MacBeth

Sorry this is actually for greenbickman:

I'll buy all you have at par n e time. U2U me.

[edit on 18-7-2010 by mordant1]

Originally posted by OBE1

Hi crezo. Do these folks look wealthy ?

Link

Historically the same phenomenon occurred in Weimar Germany, Argentina, Hungary et al. Those with the foresight to convert local currencies into precious metals not only fared best at the level of survival...but they were in position to actually profit when the dust eventually settled...as it always does.

Maybe Im just an idiot. (Lord knows I have been called that a few times) But that video didnt tell me to buy gold. It told me to buy food. In that video, two things are happening that deserve comment. One, you have a local economy where food has become scarce. Two you still have a thriving Western economy where gold is highly sought. You have demand for food, where gold is available, and a demand for gold where food is available. I am not surprised that the people are willing to trade food for gold.

What people here are discussing is a collapse of the western culture that is driving the demand for the gold those villagers are trading for food. The bottom line valuable resource is food. IF Western society utterly collapses, and millions upon millions of Westerners are starving, and I have a bunker full of food, (dried rice and beans, and the armed people to protect it) I can get all the gold I want from anyone who hoarded gold.

The question is, if there is only one bag of rice and beans left, and I myself am hungry, would I trade those bags for gold? No, I wouldnt. I would eat them. Gold is only valuable for what it can buy, food has value that is intrinsic. Gold requires a population rich enough to horde it to keep it valuable, food does not. If there were no population that were not starving, food would be more valuable than gold, and no one would trade food for gold.

Gold is awfully high right now. When is it good to buy high and sell low? If gold is $1200ish an oz, I can buy one oz right now for that, or I could buy roughly 3 metric tons of rice for the same amount of money. (I am not sure my rice price is the most current, but its an example) If the SHTF, the person who bought rice would be in a more advantageous position than the person who bought the gold, because as food becomes scare, the amount of gold people are willing to trade for rice will go up, and I could end up with many more times the amount of gold by trading rice for gold than I could if I bought gold now.

Granted, storage of the real valuable commodity is a problem, and one of the reasons we do store value in currencies rather than in the valuable commodities themselves, but, if someone had only $1200 to spend, I would not buy an oz of gold right now. I would buy the things I would be planning to trade that gold for in the future that store well. Your money would go a lot further that way in terms of how long you will be able to live off it.

If things got bad enough, a 5lb bag of rice might cost your whole oz of gold.

Just sayin. That video is not, to me, evidence that gold is the thing to buy in all situations. Its evidence to me that food is the god of all living things.

reply to post by liveandletlive


I know!! Right?

Love your sense of humor. Unfortunately, if everybody knew how things really are, I wonder if it would make a positive difference. We are, as a society, so "encouraged" to wallow in our own individual little misseries, I fear there would not be enough common sense to overcome this situation as a group.

Originally posted by liveandletlive
Your friend is spreading doom and gloom. The government has everything under control. The government is your friend. Remain calm and remember you live in the United States of America. The greatest country on earth. There are people who make sure everything remains stable. You just need to take some time to relax and watch more tv. Maybe spend some money to do your part for our economy. Have a nice glass of water and take a pill to help you relax. You will feel better once you take your mind off of things you dont need to worry about. Have a nice day.

oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooook mr government worker.
maybe i will take that pill, and watch that tv show, and therefore be subliminally implanted with the "its all okay" mentality. the truth of the matter is, america is not ok right now. not in the least. our economy has a bad case of cancer, with a 0% chance of survival.

i would say dont buy gold either

GOLD WILL STILL MEAN NOTHING for a long long time after the collapse, and in the end, gold will still be used to purchase, food and water

u cant eat gold, u cant drink gold, and neither can any of your babies or family members, who will be looking to u for help. and u will see the dissappointment in their eyes when all u have is a bunch of gold lying around after all the stores have been raided and all your food is gone

FOOD and WATER are what we need to stock up on, and those things will be the real gold when the SHTF

FOOD WATER SKILLS AND TRADEABLE GOODS (generators, fuel, oils, antibiotics, meds, alcohal, cigarettes, firearms, fabrics, T.P.) > GOLD SILVER

you decide

This topic is meaningless to the small hard working people like me, who live paycheck to paycheck and can't afford to go out and buy gold, silver, land and such. I think most of americans do not have the resources to be able to survive any possible "economy collapse", so like the rest of them, I will be depending on the government to help.

Here's the thing.

All of this looks like fantasy wish fulfillment to me.

I don't understand why it is so easy to indulge in fear-porn, but so hard to just be decent people? If a fraction of this energy was used daily to actually contribute to making your local communities a better place for everyone, rich or poor, the world would be a better place over night, government interference or not.

The world is a consensus agreement between each of us. It might be anything we imagine. It might even be a good place to live and learn and love. The reason why it is so F'D up is simple, and it has nothing to do with the powers that be: It is in us all to choose daily. Will my net contribution be hoarding and apocalypse, or will it be to live fearlessly, and do as much good as I can before I die?

reply to post by iamfascinated


Buying gold silver and land are out of reach for most Americans. If I were truly living paycheck to paycheck, AND if I were genuinely concerned about the possibility of an imminent collapse. I would buy dried rice and beans. You can spend a day feeding your family on just rice and beans, to get an idea how much you need per day, and then using that information, calculate how much you would need for one year. And slowly start to stockpile towards that figure.

If things ever really came to a major collapse, most people would not live the entire first year. After that, land is going to be easy to get.


Mind you I am not saying I personally feel this will happen, but if you are in your position and worried at all, dont rely on the government to save you. Look at Katrina. It wont happen. We can barely handle small disasters. Just slowly build up a store of non-perishable food, like squirrels do.

reply to post by ANNED


The motor home idea's not bad but do you really believe any pensions will be there if SHTF. If there's no paper money there's nothing to support a pension.

I admit I don't know anything about precious metals but understand the concept of certain items/commodities acting as a hedge against inflation. But I do want to point out one as yet unconsidered aspect. The Weimar hyperinflation and other examples given were localized phenomena brought about by local economic issues. The 'next' one is likely to be global.

It has often been said that what got the U.S. out of the last Depression was WWII. The 'logical' leap then is that what we need is a big-ass war to set things right. The problem is that back at the time of the Great Depression, the U.S. had massive industrial capacity and a huge trade surplus. Neither of those things are true today.

So, in today's reality, can we assume what will happen based upon patterns from a distant and vastly different reality?

reply to post by ickylevel


There are many records of the Germans taking all that gold and silver out to the farms to buy food.

They had more morals then. Gangs today would just go to those farms and take the food. No gold or silver necessary.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


What you need is a balanced 'portfolio'. You can tell if it's balanced becasue it will take into consideration all possibiites and scenarios. And just like the traditional balanced portfolio it's just as out of reach to most people.
By my experience about a million bucks minimum could get er done if you know whatcher doing.

reply to post by mordant1


I agree completely that if you can afford to a plan that took several contingencies into consideration would be best. The food vs gold thing is more for the average person right now concerned and unable to scrape up a large amount of money. If you dont have much, I wouldnt buy gold. I would us the fiat currency you have now to directly buy the things you would be planning to trade gold for in a SHTF scenario.

There is a reason people are told to stock up on non perishable food items before a natural disaster, rather than gold.

Originally posted by m khan
reply to post by JR MacBeth

 

Precious metals aren't going to do you a bit of good, as the government has super computers taking data on all your financial transactions. If you buy anything like gold or guns, the govt that has your gps location can send it's thugs to rob you.

Nothing personal, but if you're dumb enough to purchase precious metals from a dealer that requires I.D., you get what you deserve. Stay off the grid.

I was tempted to purchase from an on-line source, but decided to search out the local area for gold/silver dealer that would do a "cash and carry".

Luckily, I found such a dealer just a few miles from home. I walk into the store and tell him what I want, he produces the items and I lay down the current equivalent value of Federal Reserve Notes, he issues me a receipt with the Sold To as "CASH". I pick up my items and walk out of the store. No I.D. was required.

I'm back home in less than a half an hour and Uncle Sam is none the wiser.

Originally posted by Illusionsaregrander
reply to post by mordant1

 

I agree completely that if you can afford to a plan that took several contingencies into consideration would be best. The food vs gold thing is more for the average person right now concerned and unable to scrape up a large amount of money. If you dont have much, I wouldnt buy gold. I would us the fiat currency you have now to directly buy the things you would be planning to trade gold for in a SHTF scenario.

There is a reason people are told to stock up on non perishable food items before a natural disaster, rather than gold.

There are a few good things about gold, first it is compact and universally value dense. It has tradition behind it and is valuable mostly because chicks really dig it. It's hard to pick up and run and hide with a genset and years worth of dried beans or farming implements. Running with a kilo of gold is easier. Mostly one has to survive whatever is going on to ease into the new commerce. Whatever you have when you get dead gets split up by the toughest hombre left alive in the room