Stock broker friend of mine, says all traders are buying land, gold, silver....

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I appreciate your response Green Bic, and I hope others will read it, and be able to see that trading commodities is dangerous at best, and when it comes to gold especially, I agree that they should take your advice. No, people will not be able to "make money" that way with gold, it's extremely unpredictable.

And yet, within the trading context, we are in effect speaking of gold, as if were just another commodity. It's NOT just another commodity, and it's a million years from soy beans!

Why is this? As I've mentioned in other posts, gold ends up the big enigma precisely because there are real "who's" behind it's behavior. And that's not an easy thing to figure out. If it were as simple as beans...seasons, weather, crops and historical charts that actually work half the time, well, we wouldn't be talking about it. But it's not primarily "natural" forces at work, or even your fellow traders that you would have to figure out.

With gold, you are literally dealing with the biggest financial fraud of all time. At first glance, the connection isn't obvious, but we don't have to go back that far to get some clues. First, just to be sure no one missed what I was talking about, the world's biggest fraud, of all time, is a banking cabal that runs the world, and is using the US Dollar as it's primary "tool" for looting the resources of the globe.

For those who do not realize it, our recent history has the whole world accepting US Dollars, which are literally printed out of thin air. Logically speaking, it would seem preposterous, for a nation such as China for example, to accept "paper", for their manufactured goods, commodities, etc. But they do (for now). Can we conceive of such a thing going on forever? Neither could "they", but rest assured, they would have given some thought to an end game. But more on that later.

In order for their massive crime to work, they had to get control over any form of "currency" that could compete with theirs. Enter Bretton Woods. Just like the previous world war, the time after is ripe for "change". And so the world ceded a good portion of the financial sovereignty to the USA, by agreeing to use Dollars as the reserve currency (in place of the ancient relic, gold). However, it was too soon after having dispensed with the gold standard (which the banksters had effectively used in the earlier phase leading up to Bretton Woods). So, the agreement was that the US would redeem dollars, paying out gold, at the rate of $35/oz.

And then, France attacked the US, with help from the Saudi royals, and other sympathizers. They began dumping their dollars, pulling out as much gold as they could get away with. It was a race! But Nixon wasn't a complete moron, he closed the gold window, and since then, the world has been stuck with the system that set up US dollars for (oil mainly), and everything else, and yet, there is no way to trade in those dollars for gold. What to do?

The 1970's marked severe transition, but the 1980's made up for it. Huge US prosperity, by design, at the expense of the rest of the world. Why? Because foreigners now needed to spend their dollars on something other than gold. They bought stock. They bought land. Our stock market went up, and we even got a real estate bubble (the Fed helped make it severe of course).

And gold? It dropped. The world acquiesced, we might say, and agreed to play the game. For a time, they would "participate" in the world's mega-economy. And the nations each fell into their roles, with China the most notable, as it became a manufacturing powerhouse. And the US? Oh so nauseating...The USA became a nation of CONSUMERS.

I'm not sure a person needs a degree in economics to appreciate the common-sense aspects of this. Anyway, we, all of us, the whole planet, have been played. And center-stage, all along has been the US Dollar, and here's the key, with the only other "currency" able to compete with it, being GOLD.

And so now for a decade, gold has risen. In spite of central banks dumping gold, depressing the prices (so hard to predict these central banks!), fooling with interest rates, etc., gold rises, slow and steady...why?

We need look no further than the US Dollar! Ever see Glenn Beck's "hockey stick" Google it. It says a lot right there. The quantity of dollars being issued in just the past decade, is basically more than all dollars ever issued from the beginning of the nation!

Oh, and "inflation"? It is here, but the deflation is so much more powerful...at the moment. No problem. Gold historically does well in deflationary environments too (shhh, no one is supposed to know that).

You wisely accept that things are complicated in the financial / investment realm. Many, many variables. But the biggest of all has always been what we usually call "the government". Working with the Fed ("for" the Fed??), what has it been doing lately? Handing TRILLIONS of dollars to a bankrupt banking system! They cause the problem, yet they get all the benefits? Hmmm.

SO, can anyone call the gold market, in the trader's sense? Not unless they let you in on the Plan. And they're good at sending all the contrary signals. We can't beat them at a game they've worked for centuries.

And we won't "beat" them, but in a sense, we can help ensure our survival, by "joining" them. THEY own gold. They always have. They are able to see long-term, we seldom do. We would do well to adopt some of their strengths.

So then, what to DO, concretely? Be the contrarian! Buy gold, even though everyone will say it's "high". Buy silver, even though it's too "cheap". In short, what we need to do is stop looking at the past few decades for clues, because this has been the period of their aggressive fraud, and so it is colored predictably. Instead, we need to look further back. What do we find then?

Gold, and silver, has functioned as REAL money, for thousands of years. Yes, the time will come when the US Dollar fraud will collapse. It's OK, "they" will come out smelling like roses! But we will be screwed, blued, and tattooed...UNLESS, we did what "they" did first, and got physical gold (and silver counts too!)

No substitute for physical gold / silver. Not the same at all as the traded commodity! Take delivery, or it's all still just paper. Good luck trading.

JR

reply to post by ickylevel


Well sure. Contrarian is the way to go. Short term is anyones guess, but long term? Has any fiat currency ever beaten gold long term? I think not. The game is to keep sawtoothing the value and chipping off the margins. Still, there will be a confiscation attempted to ' fairness to level the playing field for all not just some' as well as artificially depressing value while most clean out their jewelery boxes for extra cash. Thankfully for most it will be a virtual transfer to the gubmint
"Please deposit 1000 dollars for the next 3 minutes"

reply to post by JR MacBeth


I understand what you are saying. But the USA issuing debt has always been a prelude to wide expansions.

It is always hardest to buy at the bottom no doubt. The Fed Funds rate right now is screaming long term buy. It first called shortly before the market bottom. It is still screaming buy.

Every time in history anything under 2% Fed Funds Rate is the key to long extended historical bull markets. It is just plainly there for anyone to see as well. Don't buy into the hype of BDI, Gold, US DOLLAr, EURO (GET REAL), etc.. There is not enough historical significance IMO and the FFR is just the top notch leading indicator if there was ever one.. again all IMO.

Markets always range out and then correlate again - something like a credit crisis will just make all systems that historically have worked start to land you in the poor house.

I say this because I look at these statistics for more than 12 hours a day. This is no joke and if you have had conversation with me before you will know this.

Why, for some reason, you could always be invested and yield 8% longterm in the SP500, which according to the rule of 72 would make you fortunes over your adult life, would you ever think you could beat the market > 75% of the time?

Look at bond volatility compared to 2009. It isn't just "gold" it is everything. Every f'in day there are 1000x better opportunities than metals. It is just are you going to be able to see through all the noise in the market to identify these things? Statistically you won't and that makes me a hypocrite I guess. In reality you should just dollar cost average your way into retirement, but for some reason the extra 3% is what keeps me doing this and hopefully for a rather large institution soon. Then I am done, investing in life insurance and moving to Spain. Why try to beat anymore randomness when you can have a 99% guarantee.

Hey, if it all really comes down. And not some "reset" like some members think, if this # really goes down you aren't going to have # but your family and your dog. Power, electricity? Doubt it.

So if we know this, why not be in the next best thing. Historically the USA has never missed a payment or been tardy. Give me 25% of my money in the 30 year bond. Because in the end, for some reason, people in America have forgotten the good thing we have and as a whole we have become quite accustomed to blaming someone else. Nothing is ever our fault. Blame it on the bank, right? Did the bank really make you take out 2 home equity loans + that last $30,000 improvement on your rock waterfall pool/spa?

This covered a lot of things, but in the end, why worry about "situation x"? Because if it does happen you will not have anything anymore. Gold? Well if you can find someone that values it more than food. When do you think the gas station will be open to fill your gas up again? Certainly not after situation "x".

Too much negativity on this site. Waiting for the bad day to happen. I don't understand how that is enjoyable.

So in the end my opinion doesn't mean #, if it did I would have staked my claim already. But I am debating trivial things on a conspiracy website. I guess I am a bit jaded as well.

[edit on 18-7-2010 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by mordant1


Thanks for that, good to keep a bit of humor with all this, we'll die one way or another, that's for sure.

I guess I can agree with your statement about the Depression, in that wider sense that you're getting at, which is clearly very important...

"...nothing actually solved the depression, it was just that the war allowed ignoring the concept of debt..."

Yes, debt, debt-based money, legal tender, it's certainly still with us, and more so than ever before.

But I think it goes back even further than 1929, or even 1914. "That debt" (that really got this whole thing rolling) is generally agreed to go all the way back to Lincoln's administration. Scary thought, it was so long ago, but the facts seem to bear it out.

I suppose someone could say things were leading up to the present system from before even then, but the bottom line in the sense I mean, is that the US has not been solvent since. And anyone who has tried to extricate the nation since, winds up dead. Wars are always very expensive, and with each war, the dreaded Money Powers embed themselves even more. Today, we seem to be a nation perpetually on the warpath.

Well, I for one will keep spreading the message that the problem is ever the same...it's the banksters. They are the real enemy of the human race.

JR

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Im really really bad at internet sarcasm.

I also dont know much about the trading end of markets.

Are you saying you think gold is a bubble? Or not? And, are you saying you think there will be a sit x (as a personal opinion) or rather that all the negative thinking about the possibility is just bull when historically we have always been able to pull up and out?

Sorry, I am just literal minded, and interested in what you are saying. We may disagree on the free market issue philosophically, but I do respect your expertise in the trading end of the market a good deal.

reply to post by JR MacBeth


Well thanks for that, youre an objective analyst in your field as I am in mine. I take my moniker seriously, there is no mirth in my musings, life and death will do that to some people.
If you want an interesting speculative yet functional investment strategy (literally and fuguratively) that is at least tangentially applicable to this thread is interesting ways, look into NFA arms. Sometimes you really need volume, not just accuracy.
Really, gold isnt an investment any longer it's more an insurance policy, and some fine heavy asian jewelery may help you and yours get you to a better que when the time comes. Whatcha think about my contention that there is absolutley no way to pay accrued debts without mugabe money?
And if so, why would anyone in the position to demand it, want it?

You know, there is one alternative no one cares about that would work:

Breatharianism. Breatharians live on air sunlight, and soil only. The best way to survive is to return to your roots, literally.

reply to post by Illusionsaregrander


I'm not greenie but you'll get my two cents because you need a contrarian view. The paradigm of fixed standards and trust is going down fast. Look around, YOUR obligations stay the same or increase, gubmints obligations to you are being redefined into vaporware, and youve PAID for them already, most likely.
EVERYTHING is being bubble-ized. The proles assume values are assigned fairly and at least somewhat permanently. That assumption will cost anyone that expects it to continue in perpetuity. (n.b. greenie)
Come what may (will), transaction value will be far more fluidly determined based on the various desperation of the parties involved. Basically, horsetrading at point of sale.
Best thing is to have some of everything, associate with those that hold your belief and values and see you as an asset and you'd do better than if you have to horsetrade with ghengis khan.
Once the grid goes down, if you dont see it in front of you, it aint yours and it aint coming. I'd be vewwy vewwy careful trading anything of actual value for promises for performance in the future here on in. Even in a transition period, fiat money can get you something that a promisory note or certificate cant, unless of course it is 2-ply and big enough.

reply to post by Mr Knowledge


Thanks for that, I'm already a vegetable.

Originally posted by Illusionsaregrander
Maybe. You could have said that about the housing market before the collapse too. But it was a bubble. Its really hard to know, and people just need to go with their gut on the gold issue as an investment. I wouldnt buy right now, I would buy real estate.

Personally I would never make a serious allocation to any asset class based soley upon gut feeling...with a little initiative it isn't that difficult to suss fundamental strength/weakness. DotCom bubble...Housing bubble ? The warnings were clear and abundant for those that chose to heed them...the smart money was long gone.

It will be the same with Gold...a parabolic blow-off top involving a broader cross-section of the general public. A top that only a blind man can miss. Unfortunately, the Johnny come lately[s] and those blinded by greed will be left holding the bag. IOW, when a few of the naysayers finally convert to buyers...I might be one of the investors they're buying it from

Sorry I don't have the time at the moment to define all of the characteristics that apply to asset "bubbles", or to detail the somewhat complex fundamentals supporting the current bull market in Gold...but let me leave you with some food for thought: as of this month, only 0.8% of all global financial assets are invested in the Gold sector (this includes the mining shares). In the early 30's Gold equities bull the allocation was 20%, and at the peak of the 1980 bull market the global Gold allocation was 26% with the US deficit at only $60 billion...now we're talking in trillions. In opposition to popular folklore, Americans account for only 1/100th of this demand...again, demand from developing nations, primarily Asian, currently dwarfs Western First World demand.

A lot of these people on ATS arent concerned with buying gold to increase an already considerable net worth.

» Global Meltdown » Stock broker friend of mine, says all traders are buying land, gold, silver


I thought it was about diversification as a means of protecting net worth in real terms...not increasing net worth.

Also, real estate would be my last choice at the moment...believe it or not, prices could continue to soften as we move into 2011

Edit to add: The ultimate downside for Gold can be mitigated with the introduction of hard money as a component of any serious currency reform.


[edit on 18-7-2010 by OBE1]

reply to post by OBE1


maybe so. And what would replace gold as a widely acceptable retainer of transportable representative value? Any paper instrument can be copied by the billion, any number on it you want to put, on it it can be held in your hand yet worhless. What asset retains its value to some degree regardless of the integrity of the owner and cant be replaced at a fraction of its cost??
Face it gold will always get you laid, and hence its value. Try that with an gift certificate to wooworths

[edit on 18-7-2010 by mordant1]

reply to post by mordant1


"Whatcha think about my contention that there is absolutley no way to pay accrued debts without mugabe money? And if so, why would anyone in the position to demand it, want it?"

The Mugabe money plan goes back a ways, with monsters like Keynes literally bragging about how much wealth could be confiscated from the masses through that scheme.

But you bring up a big issue that people seldom really think about. Everyone seems to know that there is huge debt, and some may feel it has reached "unpayable" proportions, especially if they drove past a billboard counting off our national debt, so many millions per second.

And then, I think your intuition is dead on, at some point it would get ridiculous. No one would want "Mugabe" money, and they would demand an alternative. What else is there? Gold is the short answer.

But the debt issue is more complex, with some literally saying that WE are payment for that debt, that we, and our children/'grandchildren, have been essentially sold into slavery. That the US of A has been bought, and eventually our masters will "break" (ouch!) the news to their slaves.

Of course, when it comes down to it, this may not be so far off at all. What IS really valued, by everyone, is what is tangible, whether it be a commodity, or a person's/slave's time, number of hours they can toil. How that work or product is denominated, our masters could care less if it dollars, or grams of gold.

More to think about, hope others will jump in too!

JR

reply to post by JR MacBeth


Gold? possibly, but it is a mere commodity and can be secreted away by those who refuse to play.. As a lawyer you know title is a commodity too. Title to everything: land, immutable land and the resources held within and beneath, including future gold silver what have you. Title to food grown on it, water that runs off it.
What else is there for the men that already have alladins cave in the next room?
Control the land, control those that you allow to be on it, or off it.
Game over. Long live the kings!

Best deal? Cash it all in and more to Hedo permanently

Can I get an 'amen'?

[edit on 18-7-2010 by mordant1]

To all of you that say "you can't eat ammo," I don't think you fully understand the ramifications of a full-blown collapse of the US dollar.

The $ is the cornerstone of the world economy, bottom line. A collapse would not only destroy the US for an undetermined length of time but it would also wreak havoc on every single economy on the entire planet.

The basic all-american Joe and Jane Smith have known nothing but prosperity and abundance their entire lives. They have not had to worry about things like wondering where their next meal will come from and when it will come. What do you think will happen when little Sally Smith looks up at her mommy and daddy with tear-filled eyes and whines, "I'm hungry!" Mommy and Daddy Smith *will* get food..one way or another. Guess what? You just so happen to live down the road from the Smith family.

Some of you will say "but I will just give them some food!" What happens when they come back? Can you afford to feed everyone that you come across looking for a handout? No, because you have your own family to look after.

Fast forward 6 months. The cities have been ravaged by looters. Fires caused by riots have burned down a large portion of those cities. Things in rural america have somewhat stabilized. Through foresight you have put back some food and the means to defend it. Bartering has made a comeback. Average person at any given time probably has very little ammunition put back. Ammo is a commodity and once used it is not easily replaceable. Picture this scenario.

Joe Farmer raises chickens, and has for years. Due to the lawlessness and having to hunt for his food he is running low on ammo. You, on the other hand, have put back several thousand rounds of ammo in the more common calibers. You would like to start raising a few chickens. You know Joe, and you know he raises chickens. "Say, Joe, I need a few chickens. I have a little ammo I would like to trade.". You finally agree on 25 rounds of .22lr per hen and 50 rounds per rooster, plus a 20rd box of 30-06 for some extra chickenwire to build a chicken coop. You have given something useful to him and he has done the same for you.

Two days later a man comes up to Farmer Joe and wants to buy some chickens, but wants to pay in gold. The gold has no immediate use to Farmer Joe. He can't use it to defend himself. He can't hunt food with it.

An American collapse will not be as "soft" as it has been in other countries.or as it was during the 30s. Americans now are about a hundred times less self-sufficient as they were back then. When you have a people that have had everything their whole lives and you suddenly take that away..it *will* get ugly.

If you are curious how a collapse could play out, the first half of the book "Patriots" by James Wesley Rawles is an excellent example.




Posted Via ATS Mobile: m.abovetopsecret.com

reply to post by netwarrior


And that's why happiness is a belt fed. Too bad folks didnt buy all the surplus ammo 5 yrs ago when it was cheap cheap cheap! Well, most didnt, I mean, they'd have had to know!!!!

Originally posted by JR MacBeth
reply to post by mordant1

 

Well, I for one will keep spreading the message that the problem is ever the same...it's the banksters. They are the real enemy of the human race.

JR

I think you pretty much have hit the nail on the head there.

Despite ruminations that the gold market is manipulated (it is, as with practically all markets), being anti-gold is akin to being pro bankers and fiat ponzi schemes in my mind. It might seem harsh, but that's what it boils down to.

The manipulation of the gold market though, as a topic, is gaining traction in mainstream avenues whereas a few years ago it was largely pigeon-holed as the rantings of the lunatic fringe. There have been many who are waking up, and it's becoming harder and more dangerous for the ponzi masters to unfairly, of not illegally, supress the gold price.

Everyone it seems will always have their own take on things, and it is alway good to read all the pro's and cons of everything you are going to invest in, buy, or hold. Typically people will talk their own book - i.e. the can't eat gold crowd usually don't have any, and the pro-gold crowd usually will have some. But for the undecided, to deny history and facts like you point out (that gold does well in both deflationary and inflationary times), and that the issue of potentially insolvent countries on the world's doorstep, I am not going to bet on depreciating paper.

Most here will know that the USD, for example, has lost some 95% of its purchasing power since inception. If there ever was a depreciating asset, look no further than manipulated bankster paper.

I would never recommend gold in lieu of food, a place/land to safely look after and feed your family, or the means to survive. But once you are fairly comfortable on that front, if you don't believe 2012 is the end or that the world is going to all of a sudden descend into true anarchy, then gold is without doubt a very safe, long-term store of wealth. It is money. It is something you will always be able to trade with, or pass onto your kids or grandkids.

Originally posted by OBE1


It will be the same with Gold...a parabolic blow-off top involving a broader cross-section of the general public. A top that only a blind man can miss. Unfortunately, the Johnny come lately[s] and those blinded by greed will be left holding the bag. IOW, when a few of the naysayers finally convert to buyers...I might be one of the investors they're buying it from

Another reason its unwise for people with few assets to buy gold. I am sure when you are selling it to the "suckers" you wont be telling them you think its going down.

Thats one of the big problems with the little guy investing at all. Most of us are mushrooms. Kept in the dark and fed on #. Not everyone has the talent, time or the inclination to figure out the market workings on the investment end. Which is why I do listen to my gut. I got out of the slide on an early upswing before it all came down, and I guessed the bottom at the next April, (and wasnt that far off) and as far as real estate goes, I dont doubt it will soften a little more into 2011, but its soft enough for me in some areas now. Not all regional markets have acted the same, after all. Im just not feeling gold. I was feeling it early on, right about the time the market did dive, but Im not now. And, since even you admit in your posts, its been a heavily manipulated thing, I would rather trust my gut, even in I end up losing opportunity, than jump in when it sure seems to me a lot of "buy" messages are being trickled down to us mushrooms from the farmers.

Originally posted by OBE1
Sorry I don't have the time at the moment to define all of the characteristics that apply to asset "bubbles", or to detail the somewhat complex fundamentals supporting the current bull market in Gold...

Its ok. Im not a "invest to get rich" sort anyway. I have my little eggs, and I manage to do ok with them. Im not after rich. I left business school for philosophy. That should tell you something about my aspirations for wealth. I was just curious to figure out what GreenBicMan was on about. He seemed a bit riled up, and he generally isnt. He is usually pretty cool tempered so I wanted to understand what had him so hot today.

Originally posted by OBE1
I thought it about diversification as a means of protecting net worth in real terms...not increasing net worth.

You could be right. I was responding as much to the other posts as to the OP. Which isnt always the best thing to do, to be honest.

Originally posted by OBE1
Also, real estate would be my last choice at the moment...believe it or not, prices could continue to soften as we move into 2011

Im like Buffett, only dumber. I dont want to jump around. I want to look for good long term things that I like and feel good about, buy them when I feel they are undervalued, and then hold them for a long time. I can appreciate that some people love to do all the trading, and find it exciting, and get a rush from the wins and losses, everyone has their muse. But investing and trading isnt my muse, it doesnt excite me. Designing an ideal free market excites me, but not profiting off one that is screwed up all to hell. It raises too many ethical conflicts for me, personally, to find that kind of "winning" exciting. To each their own, however. Diversity is what makes us interesting as a species.

Cheers! And thanks for the informative posts.

I have a thought problem for all. If things were to go belly up bad and you have 100 oz of gold, about $110,000 in today dollars. You are caught without a firearm. There will be no standard value for gold, firearms and ammo at this point. You ask me to sell you a .45 with 100 rds of ammo and a 30-06 with a 100 rds of ammo. What will be the amount of gold you are willing to offer, what is the amount of gold you would demand if you were selling the arms? Remember you can no longer go to the sporting goods store to buy the guns or ammo and there is no longer any law as they are no longer paid.

To the opening Statement,

Whats New?

Read History, Stock Brokers now, have just joined the Bankers, Royalty, rich and wise.

Kind Regards,

Elf

reply to post by waterdoctor


Your scenario isnt rich enough. (With detail) What someone will be willing to pay will depend on a lot of factors. How many other people are selling guns, (supply) and how endangered that person feels without one. (demand) Just the fact that a person doesnt have something, and it can no longer be bought in a store doesnt mean that they will want one, or be willing to pay much for one.

And, there is also the problem that no one can really guess how they are going to value that gun until they are really in that situation. Right now, they are going to guess based on how they feel right now. And that is going to tell you very little about how they will feel in a situation X when all hell is breaking loose. If someone has already killed two of their three children, raped their wife and beat them senseless, and taken all their food and the 100oz of gold is all they have left because it was hidden elsewhere at the time of the attack, they might be willing to pay more than if no one has harassed them yet, and they still have all the supplies and children they started out with.

Much like the value of having the right to own guns was higher to our founders who had just fought and won and oppressive monarch than it is to many people today who feel pretty safe overall in the arms of their government.