Hurricane Watch 2010

reply to post by alchemist2012


This high pressure system is keeping everything away.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/05bf5480c4aa.jpg[/atsimg]

www.weather.com...

It's really getting frightening out in the Atlantic... wow

I watched the Katrina aniversary on The Weather Channel last night... I can't believe that happened 5 years ago... seems like yesturday!

And then there's Earl... are there any warnings or watches on the coast yet?... I'm sure everyone there is watching and waiting with bated breath.

reply to post by lasertaglover


No, High pressure is not keeping everything away - it is slowing the low pressure systems from making its way off the coast - hence - by the time this monster gets gearing up the coast - the low pressure system will be in alienment as a noreaster would be - it will draw draw Earl in just the same way - this is a very, very bad situation - we are looking at a storm that has not been seen in decades!!! I am NOT - Repeat I am Not fear mongering here - this is a fact and all of you reading this - please, if you have loved one in it's path, planning a vacation, etal - make sure you know what you are doing - survival kits, change of plans, relocation, etc.. This system is not to be reckoned with.

I could be wrong (This I doubt) but, I would prefer in this instance to advise of the seriousness of this situation and keep you all safe.

Remember - we must look out for each other here.

Powers that be - I hope my instincts are wrong here and I hope next week you can all say to me - Anmarie you were wrong!!!!

I was up WAY too early this morning!

Okay... what the National Hurricane Center is saying about Earl was that there is still considerable uncertainty as to how close the hurricane will come to the US East Coast... but for everyone to keep close watch on and monitor Earl's progress.

It doesn't look like there are any watches or warnings for the Coast... yet.

reply to post by Anmarie96


It is critically important to be prepared, to have a 'go' bag ready, and to monitor the storm's path.

However, if that High was not in place, then those storms just might be directly headed inland, rather the driving North parallel to the coast.

At this time, the most important thing that people can do is to get ready. However, with how little the NE is actually impacted by hurricanes historically, I would really hate to see everyone getting panicked, and then have the storm blow away. If that happens, the next "Big' one in that area, might cause people to not be as careful as they NEED to be. And that might get more people killed in the long run.

I lost a good friend and fellow Army buddy in the lower ninth ward during katrina. He refused to prepare, or evacuate.

So yes, it is critical to prepare, but without that High that is in place, Earl could and would be a lot more destructive.

Please be prepared, DO NOT PANIC, and take this Hurricane, and every other Hurricane that might come, very seriously.

And be thankful that High Pressure is covering that part of the country.


Edit note: I was responding to the Haarp poster on the page before.

[edit on 31-8-2010 by lasertaglover]

[edit on 31-8-2010 by lasertaglover]

The latest path of Earl just keeps reminding eveyone to be prepared, and to keep tracking this monster as much as possible.

The NE States MUSt be watching this storm, and even further north. Most tracks have Nova Scotia taking a direct hit.

A question I have for the experts around here, with how the NE coast is formed, do they have to worry about above normal storm surges, as Earl drives the sea North? Anyone have any historical evidence from past storms?

Any info on historical storms in that region might be helpful.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/41ebfedcbdd5.gif[/atsimg]

One that is similar is Hurricane Floyd 1999...

csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov...

Here’s a little bit more about Floyd 1999…

www4.ncsu.edu...

Here’s a page about storm surges… something called a slosh model maybe you could get some ideas from this…

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Wow... the Stormpulse link also has an archive...

www.stormpulse.com...

[edit on 31-8-2010 by OceanStone]

WTNT32 KNHC 312042
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010

...LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...PASSING WELL
EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY...EARL IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

EARL IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE
VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Earl Readiness

www.redcross.org...

reply to post by lasertaglover

I did some more searching around... the slosh model thing... isn't that the storm surge map you get in your area? I'm pretty sure it is but please correct me if I'm wrong.

"Hurricane Earl may prompt evacuations along the U.S. Atlantic Coast even if it does not make landfall, because it may come close enough to trigger storm surge flooding and high winds, officials said Tuesday."

www.cnn.com...

Also, I'm very sorry about the loss your friend during Katrina.

Ummm - appears to me Princess Fiona is trying to merge with the Duke of Earl. This can't posibly be good. Would appear to me that this would give the Duke more tropical moisture and strength and make the monster even larger and stronger

I am sorry this is off topic, but I just have to ask.

What happened to Uberl33t?? Not long after he started this thread he stopped posting on ATS....

reply to post by Chamberf=6


Appears he's a share holder of ATS - IDK - Guess as one of those, you would know what brings in people and $ and therefore after he starts we finish and he is happy at the end of the day - Just my thinking of course.

For any of you on the Martha's Vineyard - if you talk to my sister tell her she better call me back because I really don't want to have to go out there and drag her and her husband and my 6 year old nephew off the Island on Thursday by force - I would much rather just meet them on the Main Land and bring them inland so I don't have to pay the Ferry Man

Hurricane Earl: Latest advisory
Watches and warnings

"A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Virginia, from the North Carolina border to Parramore Island.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for San Salvador island in the central Bahamas.

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued all warnings and watches for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

North of Surf City, N.C., to Parramore Island, Va., including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

San Salvador island, in the central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

The North Carolina coast, from Cape Fear to Surf City
Interests from Virginia northward to New England should monitor the progress of Earl."

www.cfnews13.com...;-Fiona-strenghthens

reply to post by OceanStone


It is amazing that just the slightest variation to the forecast model is the difference between some possible beach erosion, or catastrophic damage.

So here we are, Wednesday morning, with the Duke of Earl forecasted to make Friday a potentially really bad day, and we still do not know the exact track.

By the way, I did find a super creepy article from back in 2005 about the consequences of a Category 3 storm hitting New York over a labor day weekend.

The article is spooky, but it has some historical information about past storms in that region.

Don't read if you are prone to panicking and live in the NE:

www.nypress.com...

Current Situation:

Earl is heading to the NE with little update or change on its path. The picture below from the NHC shows just how huge Earl is right now.(Please keep watching this storm closely if you live anywhere in the NE)

Princess Fiona is getting stronger, but it's projected path pushes it well away from the US.

And then we have the next wave, with the 80% chance of tropical formation. Stormpulse is showing the forecast models for this wave, and it looks like it will be heading towards, and through the Carribean, but it is still very far away, and the projected path can change quickly.

www.stormpulse.com...

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/bc51ceb91e9a.gif[/atsimg]

I probably will not be able to post again until Thursday night with a business trip coming at the worst time for me. So, good storm tracking to all of you and may the force be with us all!

But, I wanted to leave with some additional news about the Pacific typhoon season as well. Sounds like Seoul, Korea is going to have some problems as well.

www.weather.com...


There are two active systems in the western Pacific Ocean. Typhoon Kompasu is passing in between Japan, China and South Korea with top winds of 90 mph. Kompasu will turn northeastward and make a landfall to the northwest of Seoul metropolitan area tomorrow. Kompasu will weaken prior to landfall but it could still be a powerful typhoon with top winds of 90 mph.

Tropical Storm Lionrock was located to the southwest of Taiwan with top wind of 60 mph. Lionrock is moving west but it will soon turn to the northwest before making landfall in eastern China tomorrow. No change in strength is forecasted.

reply to post by lasertaglover


Have a Safe Trip.

Instead of taking up more space here please see my post Here

Those Cape Hatteras folks just never get a break do they? Must be some outrageous insurance there... Seems these things always hit there....

I'm really kind of lax in my hurricane prep this year (due to a lack of time and money in addition to some laxness in general)...but these storms kind of renew the incentive....