Hurricane Watch 2010

reply to post by OceanStone


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/eaf1d060de92.gif[/atsimg]

Yes getting busy.


[edit on 25-8-2010 by Anmarie96]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/4d7e28f5fb5a.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by Anmarie96


Thanks!.... looks like it IS heading right for Florida.

You guys on here are experts on hurricanes.... what do you think? Would love to hear, based on your calculations, and opinions, which direction it will be going.

Looks like we'll be getting the wood window coverings out of the shed and be getting ready to batten down just in case.

I'm not going to leave home and we have farm animals to think about.
We will ride the next one out.

What is so bad is the tornadoes a hurricane causes.

Sort of looks like we might get a good blow this year before the season is over.

Good luck and God bless all.

reply to post by OceanStone


Thanks, but I'm not an expert but I been following Hurricanes avidly for many, many years. My thinking it is just to early to tell where these storms are going at the moment. There are many variables that are in play here and we will have to just keep a close eye on things.

reply to post by OceanStone


No expert here at all! Just another person that is riveted by the sheer power that is called a hurricane, and has been for years.

In my very ignorant opinion, I think that TD 7 has a greater chance of impacting the NE, than Florida, and I base that on the current projectories on Stormpulse. I also think that Danielle will still get pushed away from land by that cold front, but I do not like that there are several possible trajectories that are now showing her turning towards the NE, like Anmarie96 mentioned.

A direct North East strike by a major hurricane is almost too mind-bogglingly horrible to consider. I think you are ok my Floridian friend, but I am worried about farther north of you.

www.stormpulse.com...

Tropical Storm Earl is offically here.

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010

THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS
FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS
CONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED
BANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING
THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF
RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR
COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3
TO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST
POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON
TOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS
BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS
IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
NEXT MODEL CYCLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.4N 32.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 34.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 38.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.5N 41.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 55.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 60.0W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by OceanStone

 

In my very ignorant opinion, I think that TD 7 has a greater chance of impacting the NE, than Florida, and I base that on the current projectories on Stormpulse. I also think that Danielle will still get pushed away from land by that cold front, but I do not like that there are several possible trajectories that are now showing her turning towards the NE, like Anmarie96 mentioned.

I think you're right! Look what I found.... really interesting!

The tracks of tropical storms within 2 degrees of Earl between 1851 and 2009

It looks like Earl is also going to pick up in strength fairly quickly.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/94b999f3f3df.gif[/atsimg]

Originally posted by Anmarie96[/url]

 

Thanks, but I'm not an expert but I been following Hurricanes avidly for many, many years. My thinking it is just to early to tell where these storms are going at the moment. There are many variables that are in play here and we will have to just keep a close eye on things.

You're right, won't get too excited yet... just looks so ominous... and it really does look like it's headed right for my house... ha!

Cool...looks like both storms are now forecasted to turn away from land according to all of the latest data...I'm sure it will change even more...but let's hope the tracks stay as they are.

www.stormpulse.com...

With so many storms currently being tracked, I thought this format of posting just the NHC Summary Highlight and the direct Advisory link might make it easier to read through. Latest Info on the Storms from the NHC:

HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010
...DANIELLE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
www.nhc.noaa.gov...


TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010
...EARL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
www.nhc.noaa.gov...


HURRICANE FRANK ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
800 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2010
...FRANK A LITTLE STRONGER...
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Looks like we have another wave (20%chance) to keep track of now (geez, like we didn't have enough already):

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ba95564ec737.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...



[edit on 26-8-2010 by lasertaglover]

Wait... what the heck.... now we have a big yellow ball thing?

What's going on? Are these storms starting to "train" like what happened in 2004?

reply to post by OceanStone


Wasn't that the year that you had four hurricanes hit Florida? The same year that the whole season kinda started late (gosh darn memory fading here, but it was late July or August before any storm formed..lol, I think).

reply to post by lasertaglover


Yes! It was the year from hell.... opppss... hope I can say that word on here... lol

Hurricane Frances was the sixth named storm, the fourth hurricane, and the third major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season.... here's a picture of it....

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/25ac2a1b741d.jpg[/atsimg]

Here's a link to 2004 Season... the first hurricane was August 6... we were bombarded one after another...

flhurricane.com...

Hey OceanStone, great picture! I needed a laugh. And thanks for the link for the '04 hurricane season.

I was just watching the weather channel, and they were talking about all of the storms in the Atlantic. They went in order, Danielle to Earl to the new disturbance with the 20% chance (which I think will former rather quickly).

But they also mentioned that they believe the next wave over Africa might also be favorable for development once it gets out over open water. So I went and found this current Africa sat photo, and you can see it clearly. The link I provide for it is from the Weather Channel, so you can watch it in timelaspe (which is kinda creepy).

Earl is underneath the tendril (which I think is probably outflow from Danielle) in the picture. To the east of that, is the new wave (blob, lol) with the 20% chance of forming and good conditions in front of it. And then just east and over land you can see the next wave.

All I can say, is that I feel bad for my work next week, because I think I am going to be glued to the hurricane feeds!

And hey freetree64, thanks again for the idea of looking around Burkina Faso.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b6129a4aeef0.jpg[/atsimg]

www.weather.com...

Ok, so WOW.

Danielle is now a Category 4, with 135 mph winds, is heading nowhere at about 12 mph, and is expected to go east of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Earl is still headed west with 45 mpg winds, is still forecasted to strengthen to hurricane status over the next few days, and is still expected to turn more Northerly in the next few days as well.

The new wave is now up to a high, 70% chance of developing, and it looks like the next wave will be moving off of Africa soon as well.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/da37d20ce903.gif[/atsimg]

The tropics are definitely swirling... Just glad Danielle has the decency to stay out there...one nasty, powerful looking storm. I knew it'd be big even when it was a depression. Even then it had a lot of organization to it.

Looks like the one behind it will likely miss too, but certainly puts it back in our minds how dangerous it is for us in FL during this season, and reminds me to top off the old hurricane supplies.

I saw a generator the other day for $200... Trying to see if I could swing that...would be nice to have and run the AC if we lost power at some point...but isn't a necessity.

Wasn't that the year that you had four hurricanes hit Florida? The same year that the whole season kinda started late (gosh darn memory fading here, but it was late July or August before any storm formed..lol, I think).

We actually left town a couple of times (mostly because my wife at the time was part of a contingency group that relocated to NY state whenever severe weather threatened, and we both got a free trip up there, hehe...) when some of the bad ones looked imminent. In the Tampa area though, we always seem to come out lucky with these. I think there is something about the topography that helps with such storms. Still, the rain is the bad part.

[edit on 27-8-2010 by Gazrok]