Hurricane Watch 2010

I don't know about anybody else, but last week was really freaking intense. Both Earl and the New Zealand EQ were emotionally draining for me to watch and track. My heart went out to anyone in the danger zones, and my thanks to everyone on ATS that was posting for either event. This group of Natural Disaster watchers that are on here are some fantastic people, and I salute every one of you.

Thankfully, neither Natural Force caused any tremendous loss of life, cause they sure could have, under different conditions.

So my heart is finally calming down, lol, as I even refused to look at any news today, but finally, curiosity overwhelmed me, and...well, here we go again:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/39690e736f0e.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

I jumped on Bay News 9... but this said only that it was Tropical Area 1 and the spagetti models... I didn't search thoroughly through the site... now... which storm is this one??

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/80ad480ae9c5.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by OceanStone


Well, during the middle of the Earl craze last week, Gaston formed for a day and then went away, but has been hanging around coming towards to the islands. I think Gaston will re-form and might have an impact on the Carribean. It looked much more impressive yesterday.

The other one is just a wave that is getting failry organized pretty quickly. However, it is expected to move inland failry soon, so at worst, it will likely become a Tropical Depression in the Gulf for a very short period of time before moving inland.

Also, StormPulse is only giving Forecast models for the one in the Gulf right now.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/146cc0885e53.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

www.stormpulse.com...

TD-11E did some damage from the eastern Pacific:


NAHUALA, Guatemala – Torrential rains from a tropical depression caused mudslides that have killed at least 38 people in Guatemala — most of them in separate disasters along the same highway....

news.yahoo.com...

Morning Folks!

Lasertaglover, pretty right on! The remnant of Gaston has a 70% chance of becoming a hurricane in the next 48 hours, however, I don't see any projected path yet, maybe I'm not looking in the right sites.

reply to post by OceanStone


Hi OceanStone!

Yeah, still no real idea of what Gaston is going to do. But it does look like Tropical Storm Hermine will be a big rain maker. People in the projected path need to be cautious of flash flooding for sure.

Stormpulse is still not showing the direction for Gaston...rrr.

TS Hermine Info:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 061431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Earlier in this thread there was talk about storm surge... I found this and I thought it was pretty interesting...

Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) Storm Surge Imagery

www.wunderground.com...

Hurricane Hermine headed straight up through Texas. Should we be worried about all the toxic goo and fumes from the Gulf being sucked up and blown all up acrosss the mainland?

reply to post by LYTSKR
I did find this...

“The storm's forecast path kept it away from major oil and natural gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico, and energy companies said there had been no affect on their operations.”

abcnews.go.com...

I haven't seen anything else so far...

Gaston certainly has gone away, with only a 20% chance of re-forming now.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1729c9e655d5.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...


and here is some current info regarding Hermine:

By PAUL J. WEBER, Associated Press Writer Paul J. Weber, Associated Press Writer – 1 hr 1 min ago

RAYMONDVILLE, Texas – Tropical Storm Hermine gave a wet and windy punch to Texas on Tuesday but left only minor scrapes in the storm-weary Rio Grande Valley, which is proving resilient this hurricane season after taking a third tropical system on the chin.

Hermine lost steam after crossing into Texas with tropical storm strength. A peeled-back motel roof in the coastal farming town of Raymondville and scattered power outages were about the worst leftover from the gusty, drenching storm that came and went quickly after creeping up on Texas and Mexico in the warm Gulf waters over the long holiday weekend.

"I think we're lucky. It could've been worse," said Art Nelson, sizing up the hulking aluminum shed that collapsed on a farming plow at his John Deere store in Raymondville.

Mexico didn't get off as easy. Hermine knocked out power for several hours in Matamoros and damaged about 20 homes, whose inhabitants were among 3,500 people who evacuated to shelters.

About 1,000 families were still in shelters Tuesday morning. Authorities in Mexico said there were no reports of serious injuries or death, which was welcome news after 12 people in Mexico died in flooding caused by Hurricane Alex earlier this summer.

Texas also had no reports of serious injuries, and evacuations orders weren't necessary even in the most low-lying regions. It was another sigh of relief for the flood-prone Rio Grande Valley, which got lashed by Alex at the start of the summer and soaked by another tropical system in July.


news.yahoo.com...

Ok, so the tropics are just crazy right now.

Remnants of Gaston have a near 0 percent of forming.

Yesterday there were two waves both with Low chances of forming.

Today, both of them are gone, and we have Tropcial Storm IGOR steaming west and gathering strength rapidly!

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 081459
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010

...IGOR FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...TROPICAL
STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 23.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO
TIAGO...FOGO..AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST. IGOR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IGOR
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW.

DATA FROM A MICROWAVE SATELLITE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL...IGOR COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

I was just looking at Igor's projected path on Stormpulse and it is really not defined well yet. A couple of tracks have it turning northwards in a few days, while the others have it streaming straight towards the Caribbean. Definitely need to keep an eye on him.

www.stormpulse.com...

Also, the NHC is forecasting Igor to strengthen to a possible Category 2 hurricane by Monday of next week. I hope he does turn more towards the north.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by lasertaglover
Here's a picture of the spagetti models for Igor... looks like 4 going north and 4 going straight ahead, but yeah, still too early to predict...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3f4ea4ce6471.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by OceanStone


Thank you for posting that graphic!

I hope Igor turns north.

Check out the latest view. Crazy, eh?

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2383e51aca4a.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Originally posted by lasertaglover
reply to post by OceanStone

 

Thank you for posting that graphic!

I hope Igor turns north.

Check out the latest view. Crazy, eh?

Good Gawwwd man... that is crazy... umm when did this happen? Ha!

All this just in time for Halloween... spooooooky!

Edit... okay... a little early for Halloween... but... maybe not the way it looks like they keep coming!

Yes, very busy indeed. We will have to keep a close eye this weekend.

Halloween = My Favorite Holiday!

A heads up folks! Found these today at RumorMillNews.com...

"Three Hurricanes May Prowl the Atlantic Next Week"
hurricane.accuweather.com...

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
www.wunderground.com...

Got love? Have you loved someone today?

Toni

"Picture of the day" ... this age gives some current info about Ignor.

"Tropical Storm Igor has gone through cycles of strengthening and weakening over the last few days. Upper level winds and dust blowing off of Africa caused atmospheric shearing of the storm over the previous 24 hours, reducing Igor's intensity. Those winds have weakened today (Sept. 10, 2010) and the storm is intensifying once again."

www.nnvl.noaa.gov...

Toni

Igor will more than likely become a Hurricane sometime today:

WTNT41 KNHC 110835
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010


IGOR IS STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...THERE WAS A PERIOD FOR ABOUT TWO
HOURS...BETWEEN 04 AND 06 UTC THAT A SMALL EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECAME
APPARENT ON SATELLITE. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...SUCH FEATURE HAS
BECOME INTERMITTENT...OTHERWISE I COULD HAVE DECLARED IGOR A
HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED...THE
OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED A LITTLE AND NOW CONSISTS OF TWO
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. BASED ON A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH
ARE 4.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND...THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ALL OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR IGOR TO
INTENSIFY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IGOR TO BE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IGOR COULD
ALSO BECOME LARGE.

IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS.
THIS IS BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND CONTINUITY.
THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
MODELS TO PERSIST. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. BY THEN...IGOR
WILL BE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
WHERE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKER...AND BEGIN TO APPROACH A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE
IGOR TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND
BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Yep, Igor is back... from what I've read we won't know if there will be any impact on the US until next week.

I found this neat animated picture of the Atlantic today...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/4ad8df3840f7.gif[/atsimg]