Hurricane Watch 2010

reply to post by Anmarie96


Stay safe, my friend!!

Hopefully this will turn East, and the two other approaching storms do not develop into anyting dangerous either. What a horrible thiought if Earl were to make landfall to then be followed the next week by one or two other hurricanes!

Here is the latest report:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 020556
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EARL MOVING QUICKLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 74.4W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH LATER
TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.

EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.


LINK

[edit on 2-9-2010 by westcoast]

Why aren't they aren't a little more worried about places like Long Island.

Sure the current model is predicting it won't directly hit this area, but models aren't 100% accurate. The current path is something like 50-100 miles from land - which is very close.

I wonder if the area is just too populated and they figure there is no way to evacuate that many people, so it's just better to down play the risk?

Here's a out there theory, what if they can manipulate the weather (at least somewhat), and they know the current system in the West will push Earl out east. It seems pretty coincidental the Western system just happens to be in the right place at the right time.

Oh boy. My DH flew into MacArthur, around midnight tonight. The hotel is pretty far into Long Island, and of course I'm worried. His return flight isn't until Friday, and we have travel plans for early Saturday (family vacation).

I had a sliver of hope that his trip would be postponed. I tried to tell him that he'd be in a bad position, if held up in a hotel during an emergency. All the locals will be too caught up in their own preparations, than to have to worry about his welfare. (by 'locals', I'm referring to his clients and teams that he is in town to visit)

Last I saw, LI was in a Storm warning, while Martha's Vineyard was issued a Hurricane warning. I'm confused, as I figured Long Island would be in the storms path before MV. Is this because the eye of the hurricane would be further in the Atlantic and LI would only be hit with the storm's outer layer? If so, this is where I'm confused, wouldn't the storm weaken as it traveled north along the coast?

Since I'm in the Midwest, I'm not getting the sense of urgency and local updates. I'm pretty much going by what is being posted here. THANK YOU, btw, SO MUCH for the updates. I'll check out the weather channel, but I'm sure I'll get better info here.

-Sour

Getting even stronger!

000
WTNT32 KNHC 020855
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 74.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LONG
ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PLYMOUTH
MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 928 MB...27.40 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Only ten miles an hour from Cat5... should go to Cat5 within 12 hours or less.

[edit on 2-9-2010 by Vitchilo]

How bad with the damage from this hurricane be in comparison to Hurricane Katrina? From what I'm reading from various threads on ATS and on the news, this hurricane is massive, but I'm not hearing nearly the hype I heard for Katrina. In fact, I don't even see a thread on the front page of ATS about it, so I'm wondering if it's being "underhyped" or it's really not that bad.

reply to post by SonicInfinity


Hurricanes don't have to be the same size to do damage.

It depends on how fast they are moving, the terrain, etc.

Katrina caused problems because the Louisiana sold off the wetlands. Camille 40+ years ago was a much stronger storm then Katrina.

In fact, they say Camille killed more people then Katrina because most folks remember Camille not doing so much. Forward 40 years of developement and you got Katrina.

Pluse Katrina came inland. Which stalls them. Like a wave hitting the beach.


We have had hurricanes roll through here and nothing but a bad rainy day. Then we had a tropical storm wreak havok. Why?

Because it was slow. So instead of rushin through and being gone in 12 hours, it tooks its time and dumped wind and rain for 3 days.

Earl is a very fast storm. It will be quick, and it might now have time to do as much damage.

Though I admit, storms usual use their zest going north, and this thing got stronger. So who knows.

Good Morning Folks. I awoke to a red sky. Now it is an ominous pink/orange on the horizon. They are playing it down because of the Holiday weekend I think and also because of their uncertainty still of Earls course.

Latest is 7 million in harms way. I expect evacutaion numberst to grow by leaps and bounds during today and tonight all up the eastern seaboard.

Airlines have started changing reservations along the coast for free.

If you are planning to get on a plane to come to the northeast today or have a reservation - change your plan!!!! The airline will work with you!!!!

If you are on an Island - any Island on the northeastern seaboard - get off!!!

Emergency preparations should be rushed to completion now!!!

Edit - for evacuations - sorry - came through wrong

[edit on 2-9-2010 by Anmarie96]

Wind down just some with the 11:00 am intermediate advisory.

WTNT32 KNHC 021456
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
MASSACHUSETTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WESTPORT EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
TO WEST OF WESTPORT...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ef1fa9723c33.gif[/atsimg]

This is the current map. Be advised that these winds will be moving inland as Earl approaches - then - up the coast. Even if you are not on the shore, you need to be prepare. This monster is massive. - take the center of the color image and bring it into shore to see how far inland the winds will be

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/373a7675dfd4.gif[/atsimg]

Originally posted by Anmarie96
If you are on an Island - any Island on the northeastern seaboard - get off!!!
[edit on 2-9-2010 by Anmarie96]

Including Long Island? Any thoughts, experience, or opinions on the LI area?

I'm thinking that LI would be tough to leave, in the event of an evacuation (whether mandatory or voluntary), due to 'bottle-necking' of traffic.

Heck, the L.I.E. is horrible on normal days, especially on holiday weekends. Could you imagine how it'd be in an emergency evacuation?


Wow, I just got the chills. thinking about the catastrophe an evac of LI would cause. It would probably mean thousands stuck, stranded on the expressway, during the worst of the storm. Anything outside of 48 hours would be too little time to evacuate the area.

Could this be why it's being downplayed in the area? Or, is it simply not so much of a threat to LI and NYC? I mean, aren't they advising Martha's Vineyard to evacuate?


-Sour

reply to post by SourGrapes


I lived in Montauk, LI several years back for a few years. The thread to Long Island is not as great as it is to the "Outer Islands" The End - Montauk as they call it is most venerable as it is on the tip. Let us just hope that Earl sticks in the projected path. I think those on the inner and middle end of Long Island will see Major wind and dangerous surf and need to be prepared for power outages - but they will not see the brunt of the storm. - No, I could not imagine trying to evacuate Long Island. I do imagine it may be possible with this storm that Sunrise Highway in Amigansit may flood and make Montauk it's own Island.

They have not as yet ordered evacuations to Martha's Vineyard. I highly doubt the will do this. I do not know how they could do that - they only have so many ferry's

2:00 pm advisory - Winds are down some yet again and Canada is now on watch...

WTNT32 KNHC 021745
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
200 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AS A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO
FORT LAWRENCE.

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER.

Full Report

“They really need to focus today on what they're going to do before the storm gets there," Fugate said. "Implement your plans and be ready to heed evacuation orders."

“With the storm expected to start hitting North Carolina later in the day, officials expanded mandatory evacuation orders across new areas of the state's low-lying barrier islands.”

Below is a link to another article and if you scroll a bit more then half way down the page they have another interactive hurricane tracker.

My thoughts are with all those people.

Interactive Hurricane Tracker

Here's some information that might help out.

And Earl could get larger. The storm appears set to undergo a process called eyewall replacement -– common to major tropical cyclone, notes Dr. Read.

Essentially, the existing eye vanishes after being surrounded by another wall of rainclouds. This outer wall becomes a new eye, with a larger diameter. That has the effect of pushing tropical-storm and hurricane-force winds further toward the storm's edges than they had been.

Thus, FEMA's Mr. Fugate urges, "don't focus on the skinny black line" on federal storm-tracking maps. "This is not a point on a map."

Last night, even though Earl had yet to reach North Carolina, President Obama declared a federal state of emergency for the state.

www.csmonitor.com...

Be wise and strong,

Toni

Here is the 5:00 pm advisory. Still dropping wind speed

WTNT32 KNHC 022038
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

Wow, I am glad to be back from my trip!!!! Talk about ATS withdrawl!!! And I also missed all of the regular posters around here.


Anyway, here we go:

The Duke of Earl:

WTNT32 KNHC 031145
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE OUTER BANKS LATER THIS MORNING...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 73.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.



Our Lady, Princess Fiona:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 031155
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FIONA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
800 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REACHES FIONA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 66.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.



PLUS, two tropical waves, with a 40% and a 20% chance of formation respectively.


With all of that stuff posted....Today is going to be a rough day for the NE. People in that area MUST keep an eye on DUke Earl. Just because he is not coming onshore until probably Nova Scotia, does not mean that tornadoes will not affect your area.

Also, those in Nova Scotia, get ready to do whatever is neccessary.

PLEASE keep posting anything new on these storms. I am still worried about higher wind gusts hitting some of the Metro areas in the NE, and also there is always a strong chance for tornadoes with a system like this one.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/74fd7ae47142.gif[/atsimg]

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

I found these images on Yahoo this morning and thought I would share:

Tires pushed ashore by Earl in Atlantic Beach, NC:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/30876d87f368.jpg[/atsimg]


Nags Head, NC:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e7762105b570.jpg[/atsimg]


Power lines also in Nags Head, NC:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/fe404a51985f.jpg[/atsimg]


And this sign from New Jersey said it very well:
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e36cc586bdd3.jpg[/atsimg]

news.yahoo.com...=/100903/ids_photos_ts/r4109355093.jpg

Yeah!!!! Earl's winds are down to 85 mph!!!!

000
WTNT32 KNHC 031458
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

...A LARGE BUT WEAKER HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

reply to post by lasertaglover

Wow... great pictures... amazing the power in these storms!