Hurricane Watch 2010

I went looking for that orange circle storm that you showed on your map lasertaglover.

I found some spagetti models... most look okay... doesn't make me all comfy but not too bad... but there's this one little spagetti line that make me a weee bit nervous.

I went to see who or what that one spagetti prediction was from and it was... NOGAPS... The U.S. Navy's Navy Operational Global Prediction Center System..... DOH!!!

Hmmm how accurate is the Navy?

reply to post by Gazrok

We're in the Tampa Bay area, actually north of Tampa though... and during Hurricane Frances we lost the roof to our lania, our master bedroom window and about 4 large trees... and almost our dog... lol

So in our area it was much more then a rain event.

So I guess I was lucky back in the late 70's and early 80's when I lived just off Bayshore Dr with my parents. I do not remember anything about Hurricanes nailing us back then, but I do remember getting the cool tracking sheets every summer at the Publix grocery store.

However, I can just remember our Ford Grenada lightly covered in snow back whenever that happened in the late 70's. I have never been back, but we lived in this apartment complex with a giant banyon tree next to the Academy of the Holy Names. I guess I'm kinda curious if it is still there lol.

Anyway, back to the present...not much has changed with any of our storms or tropical waves at the 5pm update, but they are doing an intermediate advisory at 8, so we'll see if Danielle is a Cat 5 yet.

It is worrying to see this hurricane moving up the Atlantic. Lets hope it doesnt decide to shift this way and cause another 1987 event!!

1987 British Hurricane

reply to post by boo1981


Thank you so much for that link. I wasn't really in to Hurricanes like I am now back then, so that was a great read.

rrr..edit..spelling is hard on this Saturday morning lol

[edit on 28-8-2010 by lasertaglover]

Ok...

Danielle is now a Cat 2

Earl is up to 60 mph winds

That one wave has an 80% of forming, but from the visible satellite, it does look an eye is definitely there..so Hurricane status should be just around the corner as it starts to wrap around itself, and by the way Shrek fans..the next name for a storm is FIONA.

And there is a distrurbance in the Force....oops, I mean the Gulf, that has a 10% chance of forming...but it is going to drift back over LA bringing some showers, and more than likely ending any chance of formation.

Also, the Strompulse forecast models for Earl, but especially this new wave (Fiona), are all over the place right now:

www.stormpulse.com...

Current Atlantic Sat:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/0aee66945060.gif[/atsimg]

reply to post by OceanStone


I am not sure of the accuracy of the Navy.

However, as an Army veteran, many, many, many bad jokes come to mind...I need coffee badly, sorry, lol.

Originally posted by lasertaglover

 

I am not sure of the accuracy of the Navy.

However, as an Army veteran, many, many, many bad jokes come to mind...I need coffee badly, sorry, lol.

Haaa! I so know what you mean...

I have a bad habit of making jokes when I'm in high stress situations... you can always tell I'm getting nervous... I was a riot during the Hurricanes of 2004... family did say they wouldn't have wanted to be with anyone else during the disaster... oh yeah, I could have made money with my humor... ha ha

You lived off Bay Shore Drive... what a beautiful area... omg... I love Tampa Bay.... and how I love Florida.

Good googly moogly… look at this my hurricane hunters!

“The guidance continues to be varied. The ECMWF has not shifted south and is targeting the Florida peninsula for a landfall. The ECMWF Ens members show a significant cluster doing this and even making it into the Gulf, with some showing landfall over N Fl into Ga and the Carolinas.”

www.examiner.com...

Also it says, "A lot depends on the track and timing of Earl’s turn..."

reply to post by OceanStone


Another great article OceanStone! It does provide a very good description of everything going on right now with Earl and that Atlantic. I am worried about Earl impacting the NE.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

There is a new thread specifically regarding Hurricane Earl here at:

www.abovetopsecret.com...&flagit=606941

Whoa... that's a bit too close for comfort for NE coast, not good... will definitely be watching!

Thanks for the links!

The latest update on Hurricane Earl:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

For All of You who plan on visiting the Eastern Sea board of the US for the weekend holiday - Please follow Earl very closely. For those of you planning a visit to the northeastern sea board or Islands of US - be especially cautious. PLEASE be aware of rip currents and the unseen dangers they present.

Earl is on his way to becoming a Major Hurricane. Not only will the coast be effected by him but inland as well.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301654
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

With so much going on, here is a summary of the latest:

Hurricane Danielle Category 1:
www.nhc.noaa.gov... ...DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...

Major Hurricane Earl Category 3:
www.nhc.noaa.gov... ...EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

Atlantic Low Pressure System (aka Future Fiona):
www.nhc.noaa.gov... ...AIRCRAFT DATA FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

Eastern Pacific Wave:
www.nhc.noaa.gov... ...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Current view of Earl:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/94198c12676a.jpg[/atsimg]

www.msnbc.msn.com...

We now also have Tropical Storm Fiona

Earl is now a Cat 4 Hurricane

[edit on 30-8-2010 by Anmarie96]

reply to post by Anmarie96


Quick catch!

The Princess has arrived. Oh boy...

I got this off the Weather Channel.

You can see how impressive Earl is, and how weak Fiona is at the moment. You can also see another wave recently come off the coast of Africa that might need watching as well.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/33f8a8dc1b06.jpg[/atsimg]

www.weather.com...

I dont know guys something is not right i smell a rat..thats 3 storms/hurricanes all taking the same path.Fiona is on a westerdly path that would truly make it into the gulf but projections says same path as daneille and earl hmmmm

HARRP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!