Whats going on at yellowstone?

Originally posted by antar
Is it possible for the Yellowstone region to have a major EQ, say above 6. and not have the caldera blow to life killing levels?

Of course yes. Stronger earthquakes have already occurred in the Yellowstone area in historic times without catastrophic consequences. For example, in 1958 a M7.5 earthquake occurred near Hebgen lake and although there were local victims, damage and some geologic changes, the volcano has never been close to erupting.

[edit on 2010-1-18 by Shirakawa]

Researchers report Yellowstone earthquake swarm

Associated Press - January 18, 2010 1:44 PM ET

YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. (AP) - A moderate swarm of earthquakes is rattling Yellowstone National Park in what researchers at the University of Utah say is a common event.

Jamie Farrell is a doctoral student with the university in Salt Lake City. He says that the earthquake swarm started Sunday night and that more than 200 had been counted by 9 a.m. Monday.

The swarm is centered about 10 miles northwest of Old Faithful. The largest of the quakes was magnitude 2.7. There has been one report of an earthquake being felt in the park.

Farrell says researchers have identified 79 earthquake swarms at Yellowstone since 1995. He says the swarms generally last from a few days to weeks but sometimes last for months.


www.fox12idaho.com...

reply to post by Shirakawa


You said the volcano has never been close to erupting. That's not quite true. The volcano has erupted thousands of times for around 15 million years now. And it's still considered an active volcano. Some of them were big. The last large eruption was around 70 000 years ago. I'm sure you were trying to say that it has never appeared to us be in a critical state in our recorded history, and since we've been observing it with instruments. We can't honestly say that the swarms weren't dangerous and threatening. For all we know there could have been only a few kms between us and an eruption. No one knows. There's never been a witness to any of Yellowstone's eruptions. We make assumptions based on the behaviour of other volcanoes. But there's only one Yellowstone.

And you mentioned the Quake Lake quake. That was outside the caldera. Was that quake over the magma chamber? I'll have to check the images of the chamber again and check. What's the biggest earthquake within the caldera?

[edit on 18-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

reply to post by Robin Marks


I obviously meant "not close to erupting" as a consequence of that earthquake, which occurred northwest of the caldera, where you can see the smaller lake on the map in the earthquake list page.

The biggest quake within the caldera I think was a M6.1 one in 1975 in the northern part of the caldera rim (Image). I don't know its exact position relative to the magma chamber, which I know is markedly tilted along its depth.

[edit on 2010-1-18 by Shirakawa]

reply to post by steve95988


Good Reporting on your part. Bad characterization on the part of the geologist. Not all swarms are created equal. Robert Smith, one of the lead geologist stated, I'm paraphrasing, last year's swarm was a very significant event. It was extensively studied because it was a major event along with other noteworthy swarms which the YVO has posted on their website. Of course there are many swarms at Yellowstone. But in this particular assessment, the geologists doesn't point out that a swarm can be half a dozen micro earthquakes. And he stretches the defintion even furthur stating they can last months. Earthquake swarms like we had last year get special attention from the researchers as they should. Don't let them kid you.

Intensity. That's what was obsurred in the report. I am pretty sure this is the most intense swarm since the one last year. I watched the other swarms over the year and dont' remember one in this range. Shirakawa is the one to ask. When was the largest swarm after the big one last year?

200 quakes and we're still only seeing the 2.5+ on the list. Censorship is censorship.

[edit on 18-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

when was the last swarm like this current one with quakes of this size?

If I remember correctly there was a large swarm last year around this time, but the quakes were smaller?

Will be interesting to see if these quakes get any bigger.

reply to post by grantbeed


No, actually earthquakes were bigger, with multiple 3.0~3.4+ magnitude earthquakes, the strongest being M3.87 (generally rounded to M3.9). More information here:

Yellowstone Lake Earthquake Swarm Summary as of 8 January 2009

Shirakawa is the one to ask. When was the largest swarm after the big one last year?

By looking at this page, we can see that the largest one started at the end of October and was 138 events large. Most of its earthquakes were rather small, though.

[edit on 2010-1-18 by Shirakawa]

this swarm is located between the central uplift and the bulsseye...?

volcanoes.usgs.gov...

reply to post by Shirakawa


You know I was joking. I've had a rough spell and I'm trying to use humour to deal with everything. I'm spilling it all over the place and all over myself.

Thank you for all of your graphs and charts and info. You're better than the net itself. I sometimes will search for hours or days trying to find something. But when the question is in your ballpark, you instantly come up with the data. And you always find better sources and have all the programs. Thankyou. Now I'll request a search. Overhead of the magma chambers extent. I'll look it up to satisfy myself, but I'll know you'll come up with a better graphic. From the information you provided, it would seem the most of the swarms are outside the caldera. I'm curious to know how many swarms occur directly over the chamber itself and not just within the park. Yes the chamber is tilted as it goes eastward. I always see the images in profile and only seen a few from above.


Also from the data you provided it strikes me that there's only been a few other swarm located on the rim of the caldera. Out of 79, there's only four near the rim. Is YFT working?

[edit on 18-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

[edit on 18-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

I know that the swarms are not rare nor the intensity of this swarm, but I do have one question:

It seems that in the past there is more of a general very low mag swarm with a few higher (2.0 - 3.0) thrown in very randomly and in different locations and depths. It seems to me that this swarm has started right off with higher mags and is actually increasing and they all seem to be centered in the same location and depth. Am I wrong, and this is not unusuall?

Thanks in advance for any answers.

Edit to add: Also, I just noticed on the YMR feed (nearest the swarm) it looks like there is harmonic tremor?

[edit on 18-1-2010 by westcoast]

Originally posted by westcoast
It seems that in the past there is more of a general very low mag swarm with a few higher (2.0 - 3.0) thrown in very randomly and in different locations and depths. It seems to me that this swarm has started right off with higher mags and is actually increasing and they all seem to be centered in the same location and depth. Am I wrong, and this is not unusuall?

This is a common type of earthquake swarm with no real "main event". The earthquake intensity appears indeed to be increasing, but that's a very slight upward trend, if actually present at all.
If you're talking about the UoU Yellowstone earthquake list, there are only higher magnitude earthquakes because seismologists still haven't began processing smaller ones.

Edit to add: Also, I just noticed on the YMR feed (nearest the swarm) it looks like there is harmonic tremor?

No, I haven't seen any signs of harmonic tremors.

[edit on 2010-1-18 by Shirakawa]

If america does fallow it's negative "karma" trend the volcano will blow. I know this cause Tyler knows this. lol



So you all don't really think it's a big deal at all?

reply to post by Shirakawa


How about we all agree if there's any harmonic temor Shirakawa will be first to let us know about it. I was waiting for that response with bated breath.

As for the main event. The swarm began near YMR on Friday the 15th with a quake at 9:11 UTC, mag. 1.5. One hour and fifty eight minutes after the new moon, which occured at 7:13 UTC. There was another quake midday and then one before midnight MST. There was virtually no quakes the days before in the area.

quake.utah.edu...

There were half a dozen on Saturday.

The moon achieved apogee at 1:41 UTC. The last of the half dozen quakes on Saturday stopped about an hour and a half before apogee. Here's the funny thing. If you look close at the MNR station, there is a tiny quake. I checked it on three other stations and found the same tiny blip seconds before 1:41 UTC. The earthquakes stop for a period, and then just before the end of day, the main dance number began.

quake.utah.edu...

I don't have GEE, so I'm not sure if I'm reading it right. But at 1:41 UTC, I see a reaction. And I see it recorded on YMC, YHB and YDC. It's a tiny reading but it seems to bring a halt to the earthquakes for about nineteen hours and then the whole reaction begins with regular intensity.

I firmly believe there was a slow but steady increase, then a long pause, and then the full flurry swarm began. Where am I wrong in that belief?

I have to say man throughout history claims to be knowledgeable in everything he thinks he knows, scientists think they know the answers to everything and have a so called "reasonable explanation for everything, but when it really comes down to it, they really truly do not understand it, and they get shocked or surprise when something comes into the picture against what they had claimed! the point im tryin to make is no one knows when or if this super volcano will blow its top anytime soon, there may be small earth quakes as such the past few days then BAMM it blows its top! OR there could be bigger earthquakes leading up to an eruption, we just truly do not know, nor have seen yellowstone blow in the past, thats why there is a phrase that i live by..... one day at a time.... lets just sit back and see what she does! im ready either way,

The media is starting to report on this latest swarm.

The Denver post is reporting that more than 250 earthquakes have been recorded since Friday.

Link to Denver post article

reply to post by Ape_Man


Good Reporting. Key words in article. "notable swarm", "relatively common", and " not an indication" of an eruption.

I agree with the first two statement from Robert Smith. But I think he should have added immediate in the claim. Earthquakes are almost always occuring before an eruption. He means that swarm earthquakes on their own are not an indicator. Uplift, gases and hydrothermal changes need to be seen. If anyone knows of any changes reported I would be interested. The odds are this will turn out to be in the range of other notable swarms. If this swarm continues at this rate, near 250 over 24 hours, in a few days it could reach the 900 recorded last year.

This is definately a notable swarm and I predicted it and I am documenting it here.
In case your keeping track at home, that's one entire business day and still hundreds of quakes are not showing up on the list. Even Shirakawa has to agree that data is missing from most recent list. Information is being withheld. Free society of scientists?? I'm an ameuter, I thought we belonged as well. Maybe some of you American folks can ask your reps why this is the case. They didn't withhold earthquakes when Redoubt erupted. Why the change in policy? Good questions to ask your elected leaders.

[edit on 18-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

Originally posted by Robin Marks
reply to post by Ape_Man

 

Good Reporting. Key words in article. "notable swarm", "relatively common", and " not an indication" of an eruption.

I agree with the first two statement from Robert Smith. But I think he should have added immediate in the claim. Earthquakes are almost always occuring before an eruption. He means that swarm earthquakes on their own are not an indicator. Uplift, gases and hydrothermal changes need to be seen. If anyone knows of any changes reported I would be interested. The odds are this will turn out to be in the range of other notable swarms. If this swarm continues at this rate, near 250 over 24 hours, in a few days it could reach the 900 recorded last year.

This is definately a notable swarm and I predicted it and I am documenting it here.
In case your keeping track at home, that's one entire business day and still hundreds of quakes are not showing up on the list. Even Shirakawa has to agree that data is missing from most recent list. Information is being withheld. Free society of scientists?? I'm an ameuter, I thought we belonged as well. Maybe some of you American folks can ask your reps why this is the case. They didn't withhold earthquakes when Redoubt erupted. Why the change in policy? Good questions to ask your elected leaders.

[edit on 18-1-2010 by Robin Marks]

i can answer that right now< to avoid a repeat of lasts years panic in regards to that fake sciencetist ect .

[edit on 18/1/10 by alysha.angel]

2.7, Yellowstone Nat. Park, Wyoming.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

reply to post by Phlynx


I think it was slightly larger than 2.7 magnitude, looking at how it saturated some seismic stations, but I could be wrong since its location is a bit more to the North compared to previously located ones.

reply to post by Robin Marks


Maybe somebody could send an email to a YVO scientist asking why earthquakes aren't being added to the official list when a UoU geophysicist confirmed in an interview that more than 250 have already occurred.


[edit on 2010-1-18 by Shirakawa]

That 2.7 has been upgraded to a 2.8. It is spooky the way you predict these things Shirakawa.

It also had its location adjusted. Originally it was north of the current swarm but has been moved right on top of it now. Really shallow too, at 0.9 Kms. This seems strange as the last few have been around the 9-10km mark. I wonder if this is just a typo.

[edit on 18-1-2010 by Ape_Man]