Whats going on at yellowstone?

reply to post by Hx3_1963

Yep, they are on the ball with this one; TG.. I just hope their trajectory starts to point a different direction - EEEK! Tonight might be the night but I just wish she'd hang on until daylight.

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Huh...wonder if they're gettin' nervous up a AVO...putting out advisories every hour now...
www.avo.alaska.edu...

Looks to be getting pretty active on the Webicorder last few hours...
01-30 between 06:13 and 06:53 (latest)

Another update:

2009-01-30 00:55:33
Seismicity at Redoubt has changed character this evening. Since early evening, we have observed several periods of volcanic tremor increasing in amplitude through time.

This activity is more energetic than that of the previous several days, however it is still less vigorous than that observed last weekend.

AVO

Do you think it's getting ready to blow?

They gave 4 scenarios of what might happen:
- Failed Eruption: No eruption occurs
- Eruption similar to or smaller than 1989-90
- Larger Explosive Eruption
- Flank Collapse

Jan 28 -Information statement

If the current trend is followed, the next "pipecleaner" on LKWY should commence in just a few minutes at 04:27:15 (plus/minus 15 sec) and continue until around 04:31:45 (ditto). The time intervals are shortening slightly and the duration is slowly increasing.

Mike

EDIT: Darn. My connection went down, and now I'm back my prediction is posted late -- and it seems LKWY is not updating. Trace stopped at 04:20 MT.

Can anyone check this link and see if they're getting an updated trace?

Thanks.

EDIT (again): never mind...trace is now running. Pipecleaner started at 04:28:15 (ish). So much for predictions. I expected it a minute earlier. Why won't this volcano co-operate?

[edit on 30/1/09 by JustMike]

Okay, here's a fresh prediction: the next pipecleaner should occur at around 05:31:00 MT (give or take 15 seconds) and continue for at least 4 minutes -- but could be as long as about 4 min 30 secs.

I've been noting the intervals and when they re-appeared on Jan 28 they were a bit more erratic, with intervals of around 1 hr 13 to a max of 1 hr 35 mins. Duration varied from 4 min 15 secs to as low as 3 minutes even, but in the past ten hours or so they have been trending downward in intervals between events and stabilizing in time at between 4 mins and 4 mins 30 secs. Since about 5 hours ago, the intervals have been going down to around 1 hr 3 mins, with a max variation of 1 minute, and all have lasted for 4 mins to 4 min 30 secs.

So, we'll see. Unless something odd happens I doubt that my prediction will be out by more than 30 seconds, either in arrival time or event duration.

Time at posting is about 05:14 MT (12:14 pm UTC).

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


lol, don't need predictions on the pipecleaners, I see them plain as day on the LKWY station in GEE before the LKWY webicorder page updates. Their signature is consistent and immediately recognizable. If you like, I will tell you when the next one happens about 2 to 5 minutes or so before you see it on the webi graph.

reply to post by JustMike


I am attempting to get this one predicted in Vase. Would the E and N components add anything to the identification of the sound. I am recording all three traces so if you think it is worth it I could attempt to put all 3 together, but I have no idea if anything would need to be done to N and E to achieve that.

reply to post by TrueAmerican
Thanks for your comments. It's good that I can give someone a laugh! Seriously though, while there are some observers like yourself who have been watching for some time and are well aware of the patterns, I'm mainly posting to show that the "pipecleaners" are not so regular as some might think but have a specific pattern (or trend) of shortening intervals. While you know that, there are some who don't, so I just think it's worth having it on record in near real-time that the trend is now very clear and reasonably predictable -- much more so than it was two days ago when there were sometimes variations in the time between events of more than 20 minutes.

This is one reason why I have been a bit dubious that it's (man-made) "mechanical" in origin -- though I'm still open on that as I'm not an expert in EE.

Best regards and thanks again,

Mike



[edit on 30/1/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by PuterMan
Wish I could offer an opinion to your technical query but I lack the expertise in your field. I am only using the webi traces for this process of observation as I had too many problems setting up and running GEE. Even with the timelag on the webi, it's still good enough to note the intervals and durations, even though it's not so useful for identifying finer details of the signals received.

Regards,

Mike

EDIT for typos... I have to go and find my glasses...


[edit on 30/1/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by JustMike


One just hit. watch next update and you'll see it:

www.quake.utah.edu...

lol, aww, I was wrapped up in something else, so it updated the second I posted that... But yeah, it's there.

[edit on Fri Jan 30th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

reply to post by TrueAmerican
Thank you... Yep, it arrived just after 05:31:30 according to the webi. As you say, you update quicker than the webi does! (Star for your post.) Is it so slow to update because it sends the data in packages rather than constantly, or is it just a low-quality connection they have there? Or both?

Regards,

Mike

Finally it updated the trace enough for us to see that the duration was pretty near bang on 4 minutes.



[edit on 30/1/09 by JustMike]

reply to post by winotka


I too have been "lurkin" since page 1 ( a lot of great pages !!), and have been watching and stocking up. Keep up the great work. I really am not at the technical level so many of you are, but what you are all doing helps everyone ( especially since the powers that be won't tell us what we need to know).
Pensacola lurker

reply to post by JustMike


I really don't know my friend. Might be a good question for Jake. But even GEE lags a touch when there is a decent size event. Hate to hear you had trouble with GEE, cause really the installation went very smooth for me running XP SP3, fully updated.

It's the GEE program itself that has some bugs. Like for instance, while that sukka is connecting trying to get the maps and stations at onset, don't touch a thing until both maps and stations are loaded or you'll be sorry. Program lockup/freeze. But mostly it works pretty good, unless the network is too congested, and that happens less and less each day as people lose interest with the bigger swarms at YS dying off.

I am hoping that YS has gone into slumber again, and I can finally put down GEE for a while. If nothing has happened by Monday I am going to do just that.

And also I will bet anyone right here right now $1,000 USD that those are man made events of some kind (referring to those particular "pipecleaner/catapillar" traces at LKWY.) As in not natural.

[edit on Fri Jan 30th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

There may be another explanation to the catterpillar/secret geiser phenomina that you aren't contemplating.A theory of mine, and please note the theory word, is that these are indeed man "induced" pulses, but they are not from an external sourse perse such as a motor or sump punp or even a compressor, but are induced pulses to break down any harmonic magnification that could lead to an eruption.
Harmonics build up over time.
A good example is soldiers walking over a span bridge.
If they all walk in sync and march in concert, slowly the bridge builds up and begins to march with the soldiers.
Keep this up long enough and the bridge builds up the harmonics to such a point that it begins to sway madly and break apart.
This is why soldiers when they encounter a bridge are ordered to wakk "at liberty"
Now introducing a varient harmonic to the ground may well, in theory, prevent the natural harmonic from building to the point of reaching a destructive level.
Just thinkin out loud....lol
The traces we see are the signals being introduced.
This could explain why they are somewhat consistant, and when the natural harmonic dies down, cease for awhile.
feel free to destroy this "theory".

edit: spelling and grammar.



[edit on 30-1-2009 by Rumbottlerenovator]

Oh man...5:25 am PST western Wa. St.

My whole house just racked sideways 6"!

Scared the bejeezus out of me!




Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.6 (Preliminary magnitude — subject to revision)
Date-Time

* Friday, January 30, 2009 at 13:25:04 UTC
* Friday, January 30, 2009 at 05:25:04 AM at epicenter

Location 47.804°N, 122.542°W
Depth 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
Region SEATTLE-TACOMA URBAN AREA, WASHINGTON
Distances

* 3 km (2 miles) W (280°) from Kingston, WA
* 6 km (4 miles) NNW (346°) from Indianola, WA
* 8 km (5 miles) NNE (12°) from Suquamish, WA
* 25 km (16 miles) NW (322°) from Seattle, WA

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST=021, Nph=021, Dmin=34.1 km, Rmss=0.5 sec, Gp= 72°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=1
Source

* West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS

Event ID at00332190

[edit on 30-1-2009 by lernmore]

reply to post by Rumbottlerenovator


Actually just now the light hit me. I can give an absolutely conclusive reason why those are not natural, and it has nothing to with the webicorder traces- even though those in itself, especially right now, should be all anyone needs.

But alas, I will withhold that information. I'd sure hate to miss out on $1,000.

reply to post by lernmore


yes, confirmed on gee

something big has just happened

4.6 seattle, just came in. Although that really isn't that big. Now can you imagine what a 7+ would feel like? Scary.

Well, one concern was Mount Rainier acting up, but it would not appear so from this webi at Longmire:

www.pnsn.org...

Also, LKWY just now really acting very strange. You guys should see it on upcoming LKWY webi. BUT. It did not register at H17A, therefore it is probably someone cleaning the dish or something.

[edit on Fri Jan 30th 2009 by TrueAmerican]

reply to post by TrueAmerican
I'll pass on the bet... $1,000 is more than I make in a month. Anyways, because I'm not sure what this thing is I wouldn't risk the money... If you've worked out an explanation that covers all the variables then I'm glad to know it.

That weird trace on LKWY at around 07:05:30 (MT) could be someone doing some work there. It would've been just on daybreak then so it's not out of the question. Maybe it was to get rid of the pipecleaners/caterpillars...

Errrmmm... Nope. Just refreshed the webi page and the next one came along at 07:46:30.

Don't suppose you could drop a hint as to what it is? Or U2U me or something?

About the slow feed from the YS webis... I've recalled reading somewhere that the feeds for them aren't the best. At least they work most of the time so I guess we should be thankful for small mercies. I'd love to get GEE running all sweet but rather than risking throwing my laptop across the room in frustration I've given up on it. Very glad for the info from yourself and others who are able to run it and report what's being displayed. Truly. Many thanks for that.

On a different but possibly related point, I can't get Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) to load. Just get a 404 error. Wanted to see how things are going with Redoubt but as they're predicting a possible eruption is imminent I guess the servers can't handle it. In any case, locals there in AK should have first chance to get info. But if you or anyone can give us an update about Redoubt then that would be great. As you know (but some new readers might not) scientists have said that what happens in AK could have an influence on Y'Stone.

Mike

www.avo.alaska.edu...


Hey everybody,
I have been keeping quiet and listening to all for awhile.
Know about the Seattle this am.
Alaska is preparing for a blow.

Mushussu

reply to post by JustMike


The AVO Website is taking a "hit" with all the requests for info...they have it to a minimum advisory mode right now...alot of interested people out here...

reply to post by JustMike


AVO is having problems with everyone wanting to have a look see.

Due to very high load on our web server, we can only support a very limited website. We are working to remedy the situation as quickly as possible. Thanks!