Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

You have a source?

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Originally posted by maloy
Here is another theory I came up with on what is taking place in Ukraine:


Notice how most of the Parliament's bills and resolutions are aimed at transfering power from Yuschenko to the Prime Minister Timoshenko, not necessarily to Parliament. While I am not convinced this and do not believe this at this point, I think it is possible that all that is happeing is indeed a cunning and deceptive plan by Timoshenko, amounting to a disguised coup. She saw an opportunity to ally with Parliamentary parties like pro-Russian "Party of Regions", so that together they have enough votes to overcome Yuschenko's veto's.

She will use this to build up her powers as prime minister, and the next Presidential election will not even matter all that much - given that the President of Ukraine is now large a symbolic post with no real powers. So technically, Timoshenko would become the most powerful person in Ukraine after this, and will run the country. The Party of Regions would have to know that she is using them (like she used Yuschenko during the Orange Revolution), but they are choosing the lesser of two evils - anything to get rid of Yuschenko.

As soon as she gets what she wants, and everything quiets down, Timoshenko may dump the Party of Regions and the new alliance, and create her own party from the ground up, thanks to her new powers as PM. Everyone always knew of Timoshenko being cunning, and I never trusted her. It may very well be a true power grab here by her. The question is - where is she planning to take Ukraine after she gets to the top.

[edit on 9-9-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by all2human
Cheney probably played hard-ball with Ukraine,"your either with us or against us"

Well Yuschenko is and always was "with" the U.S. U.S. has no issues with him - he was always a loyal puppet. Cheney is concerned with what is happening in Parliament. At this point U.S. doesn't have any "insiders" in the Parliament (besides members of Yuschenko's party).

When Yuschenko is paralyzed, the U.S. interests in Ukraine are paralyzed. One way to solve it is to repress the paralyzing factor - the opposition. Another way is to develop ties with someone who is not "paralyzed". U.S. like won't be sitting this one out, so choose one.

reply to post by princeofpeace


Why would I have a source? It is my theory, which I based on the information available from the news throughout this thread, including my post with recent Ukrainian news from Lenta.ru.

Or should all thoughts and conclusions originate from a "source"?

Russia's recognition of Georgian areas raises hopes of its own separatists

MOSCOW: Tatarstan is a long way from South Ossetia. While South Ossetia is a poor border region of Georgia battered by war, Tatarstan is an economic powerhouse in the heart of Russia, boasting both oil reserves and the political stability that is catnip to investors.

But the two places have one thing in common: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, both have given rise to separatist movements. And when President Dmitri Medvedev of Russia formally recognized the breakaway areas of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent nations two weeks ago, activists in Kazan, the Tatar capital, took notice.

An association of nationalist groups, the All-Tatar Civic Center, swiftly published an appeal that "for the first time in recent history, Russia has recognized the state independence of its own citizens" and expressed the devout wish that Tatarstan would be next. The declaration was far-fetched, its authors knew: One of Vladimir Putin's signal achievements as Medvedev's predecessor was to suppress separatism. The Tatar movement was at its lowest ebb in 20 years.

But Moscow's decision to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia made Tatarstan's cause seem, as Ra# Akhmetov put it, "not hopeless."

Akhmetov, editor in chief of Zvezda Povolzhya, an opposition newspaper in Kazan, said, "Russia has lost the moral right not to recognize us."

(Rest of the article: International Herald Tribune)

reply to post by chips


Someone is stretching it. Tatarstan is not even remotely likely at this point to separate from Russia. It is one of the most affluent areas of Russia, with a large degree of autonomy. Plus what the hell would it plan to do if it became independent - it is deep in the middle of Russia. Are Tatars going to dig a tunnel to the outside world?

Ingushetia or Dagestan separatist struggles are far more likely. Talk of Tatarstan has been on and off for the last 18 years, but nothing ever came of it.

Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Putin : The world is not enough

Russia's Next Target Could Be Ukraine Wall Street Journal

How does Russia achieve this goal? By dominating the domestic politics and, more importantly, economic- and foreign-policy orientation, of the former Soviet republics. Anything considered antithetical to Russia's interests, as interpreted by the current Kremlin leadership, must be discarded -- be it democratization, oil and gas exports that bypass Russia, and, especially, the membership in the Western organizations such as the European Union and NATO. And if, in the process, Russia must sacrifice most or even all of the fruits of the post-Soviet rapprochement with the West -- including membership in the G-8, entry to the World Trade Organization or ties to the EU -- so be it.

Ukraine’s EU hopes dashed Financial Times, UK

The European Union declined on Tuesday to offer Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, frustrating Ukrainian officials who said the bloc had thrown away a golden opportunity to stabilise its eastern frontier and encourage political and economic reform in Kiev.

The FT is notoriously arch-right in their political coverage

Somehow I doubt Yuschenko's current 6% popularity rating is all due to "the big bad Russians" - I'm sure the Ukrainians are fed up with all the interference in their politics from both East and West.

reply to post by Regenmacher


That article is a good example of how most of today's media works.

Considering the title and that the article snip posted did not said who had said who had "issued an extraordinary warning", I read the article, and what it says is:

"If NATO suddenly takes military actions against Abkhazia and South Ossetia, acting solely in support of Tbilisi, this will mean a declaration of war on Russia,"

That is a "little" different from "Military help for Georgia is a 'declaration of war'", but apparently that does not matter, only sensationalist titles.

Clinton questions US freeze on Russian nuclear pact

WASHINGTON (AFP) — US Senator Hillary Clinton questioned Tuesday Washington's decision to freeze a much vaunted US-Russian civilian nuclear pact, saying the move might not be in Washington's interest.

US President George W. Bush decided on Monday to pull from congressional consideration the agreement in the latest effort by the administration to convey its displeasure with Russia over its military actions in Georgia.

But Clinton, speaking at a congressional hearing on the Georgian conflict, emphasized that it was critical for Washington to maintain a dialogue and not isolate the former Cold War rival.

"I am somewhat troubled by the withdrawal from the non-proliferation efforts that we are engaged in," she said.

"I think we ought to be able to hold competing thoughts in our mind at the same time -- Is Russia more aggressive, are they more intent upon pursuing their own interests as they define them territorially, economically politically?

"Of course they are. I don't know why anybody is surprised by that," she said, replying to her own question.

Clinton also called for a commission to be established to determine, among other things, the circumstances under which the Russian-Georgian conflict occurred and to complement an international commission being called for by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

"I believe that the administration will be served to create this US commission, which then could cooperate with the international commission ... to in the first place determine the actual facts because there is a dispute about the facts, which may or may not be real."

afp.google.com...

Stuffed ballots, biased campaign tainted Georgia vote: OSCE

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Ballot-box stuffing, beatings of opposition activists, biased news coverage and government officials campaigning for President Mikheil Saakashvili's party tainted Georgia's parliamentary elections this year, Europe's main election watchdog said on Tuesday.

The United States praised Georgia as a "courageous young democracy" after its brief war with Russia last month; but the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) ODIHR arm said there were many significant shortcomings in a May 21 election, when Saakashvili's party won a big majority.

Its final report was significantly tougher than the monitors' initial report, which described election day as calm and generally positive, although with some shortcomings.

Washington has defended Saakashvili's government as an outpost of democracy against what it terms Russian bullying, while Moscow portrays Georgia's leader as a warmongering tyrant.

The ODIHR, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, ratified its initial view that election day itself was calm and voting was generally assessed positively; though there were "a limited number of serious violations, including ballot-box stuffing."

But it said there were "many significant shortcomings" in the counting of the vote, followed by "widespread and serious irregularities" in the way Georgian election authorities handled around 1,400 election-related complaints and appeals.

At least six opposition activists who were taking legal action against electoral irregularities were beaten, it added.

www.reuters.com...

reply to post by ArMaP


Last I looked the UN doesn't officially recognize the Georgia's break away regions as separate from the country. I also recall awhile ago that Russia's ambassador to NATO Dmitri Rogozin said that any military interference in the Caucasus conflict will be considered as declaration of war.

So just exactly what do you think will happen when the US re-supplies Georgia with arms and Saakashvili decides to implement another attack against South Ossetia? Russia all bluff and won't sink the US ships in the Black Sea?

reply to post by Regenmacher


It's like someone is trying to make some kind of prophecy come true. Black Sea. St. Georg. Didn't Nostradamus say somethimg about Sankt George's fleet being sunk? Maybe he didn't mean the Royal Navy or UK, but Georgia?

reply to post by Hellmutt

It is rather remarkable how life tends to imitate mythology, prophecy, art, etc. Also seems to fit into quantum theory in that observation effects the experiment. Astute leaders are aware how they can manipulate our paradigms and engrams for their gains, and perhaps one day the common people will learn to embrace the art of anti-agitprop.

Albert Einstein is quoted as having said, "Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one." If we alter this statement to read, "Our perception of reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one"; then one arrives at the essence of the challenge. Our perception of self as a separate being existing apart from all else flowing from God can be called ego. Destruction of the ego, itself a false belief system, leads to life.

Maybe a new age adage should be, "Be careful what you dream up, it might come true."

[edit on 10-9-2008 by Regenmacher]

Georgian officer reported killed near Russian post

A Georgian police officer was killed Wednesday by gunfire that came from the direction of a Russian checkpoint near separatist South Ossetia, Interior Ministry officials said.

It was not immediately clear who opened fire, but the shooting appeared certain to add to high tensions between Georgia and Moscow, whose forces continue to occupy its neighbor's territory in the wake of last month's five-day war.

The policeman, who was at a Georgian checkpoint about a kilometer (half a mile) from the Russian post, died in hospital, Interior Ministry official Shota Utiashvili said. The Georgians did not return fire, he said.

Georgia's private Rustavi-2 television reported that Russian officers at the checkpoint at Karaleti, on the main road leading to the Russian-backed separatist province of South Ossetia, said they did not fire. The report suggested, without citing sources, that South Ossetian gunmen might have been the source of the gunfire.

AP

[edit on 10-9-2008 by -Rugged Shark-]

Russia refuses EU-observers in regions Georgia

The observers of the European Union for Georgia get no access to the renegade regions South-Ossetia and Abchazia, in contrast to more earlier made agreements. That proved to be Wednesday.

The Russians lay the more earlier agreements made with EU-president France this way from that the observers no right have to the aware enter regions. EU-foreignpolicycoordinator Javier Solana said be able do Wednesday that the observers everywhere in Georgia, including South-Ossetia and Abchazia, their work must.

De Telegraaf

Merkel says Russia ties stronger than `controversies'

Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany and Russia are bound by common ties stronger than any ``controversies`` that may divide them, a reference to Russia`s military incursion into Georgia last month which she condemned, according to Bloomberg.

Merkel, addressing an event in the eastern German city of Leipzig today marking 50 years of the natural gas company VNG Group, said that ``long-term gas contracts are based on mutual interests`` and not a one-sided relationship.

``Russia needs customers and we need deliveries, and that goes also for the European Union,`` Merkel said. ``I see many future opportunities. Of course we have controversies, yet we have shared interests, and we should cement these links and make them more binding.``

Merkel`s comments reflect Germany`s political and economic engagement with Russia that began in the 1960s and reached its zenith under her predecessor Gerhard Schroeder. The former chancellor is now co-head of a joint venture with Russian state- owned gas monopoly OAO Gazprom that`s building a Baltic Sea gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany.

German exports to Russia rose 20 percent in 2007 to $42 billion, making it Russia`s No.1 EU trading partner. Germany in turn relies on Russia for 40 percent of its gas imports and about 35 percent of its oil.

Gazprom Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller, addressing the same event, said that Russian gas supplies to Europe will continue without interruption

www.unian.net...

edit: forgot link


[edit on 10-9-2008 by Gun Totin Gerbil]

He probably sees the way the wind is blowing , don't want to upset your future boss:

PGO did not bring criminal case against Tymoshenko

The Prosecutor’s General Office of Ukraine did not bring any criminal case against Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko on facts of high treason.
Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine Tetyana Kornyakova claimed this to journalists in the Cabinet of Ministers today.

“No case was brought. There was just a letter [from SBU] that listed facts and speculations, and asked to create an investigatory group. But such a group may be created only within frames of a criminal case demanding a joint investigation”, T.Kornyakova said.

The deputy Prosecutor General stressed that, as there is no criminal case, there is no need to create a group to investigate into it.

No documents – no high treason

Secretariat of the President did not deliver any documents proving the high treason of Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Deputy Prosecutor General Tetyana Kornyakova told journalists. “We have only Security Service letter for consideration,” she said.

As a reminder, the Presidential Secretariat of Ukraine claimed that it handed to law-enforcement agencies some materials about traces of high treason and political corruption in activities of Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko.

en.for-ua.com...

en.for-ua.com...

Saakashvili urged to step down

Good news?

Let's hope that his successor isn't a hot headed nutjob like he is. That he's kind of neutral towards both Russia and NATO... or it's just probably a political move by the opposition.

Georgia accuses Russia of breaking truce

Georgia accused Russian soldiers of violating a fragile truce on Wednesday by killing a Georgian policeman, as a major crack appeared in the EU-brokered ceasefire over the remit of EU observers.

The Georgians said it was the first fatal shooting since the August 12 ceasefire that brought an end to the five-day war between Georgia and Russia over Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia.

"This is the first time that Georgian police or military personnel have been shot at since the ceasefire began," Georgian interior ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili told AFP.

An unnamed spokesman for the Russian forces in South Ossetia quoted by Interfax denied the incident and said he would not believe it until the Georgians showed him the body.

afp

Saakashvili: ‘I Assume Full Responsibility’ for what has Happened

President Saakashvili on September 10 again accused Russia of starting the war.

Speaking at a meeting with the local administration in the town of Gori on September 10, Saakashvili also said he was assuming “full personal responsibility” for everything that led the country to the current situation.

“I want to state with full responsibility: I am personally responsible and I assume full personal responsibility for each and every event that led us to [the current situation] and which preceded the Russian aggression against Georgia. I also assume full personal responsibility for rebuilding [Georgia] and establishing peace in Georgia,” Saakashvili said.

Saakashvili reiterated that he had given French President Nicolas Sarkozy “incontrovertible evidence” proving that Russia had made the first military move in the war.

“Some people in Europe were proposing – hoping to find something that could prove Georgia’s guilt – the establishment of an [international] investigative commission; it was me who said first: let’s set up an investigative commission with the involvement of serious international people… But as soon as we starting to talk about it loudly, some people got upset and now they are against such an investigation,” he said.

He also called on Parliament to study “in detail all the aspects of the Russian aggression, including what led us to this point and what should happen next in order to prevent a reoccurrence of this kind of situation.”

Civil.ge