Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

Originally posted by pause4thought
reply to post by maloy

 

Welcome back!!

Thanks for the low-down on looters. Respect is due to the Russians for dealing with this properly.

Change your email address. Quick.

I too agree WELCOME BACK and as for the people who emailed you,dont listen to there crap.I for one (and I know there are many more) welcome you back and stand with you for making your points.

Keep up the post and keep the info coming through,WELCOME BACK>

Im not soo sure here what's going on.

There is obvious MSM manipulation NOW!

The reality of the Georgian Offensive (backed by the US if only tentatively) and their treatment of the Civilians in the Ossetian capital is very well shown by this AMERICAN who was there and saw it!



That does not justify, but maybe goes a small way to understanding the disproportionate reaction by the Russians.

This is really not good at all.

There are innocent civilians dying now there, both sides. Its awful.

Kind Regards,

Elf.

Edit for link thanks fixed now

[edit on 14-8-2008 by MischeviousElf]

Sorry ive not registered, having problems with cookies at the moment.

Just looking on CNN.com (in all its flag waving glory)

Just to quote from their 'developing story': " Russia said Thursday that its withdrawal of Gori would be complete within hours, and the U.S. said it looked like the Russian military was gearing up to leave, but CNN's Michael Ware confirmed that Russian troops were comfortably in control of Gori in the early hours of Friday.

The town was a base for the Georgian military and is near the breakaway South Ossetia province where the conflict began.

Meanwhile, there are reports of Russian vehicles on the move towards Poti, a port city in the west of Georgia."

Are they just totally ignoring the fact they are ticking off just about everyone lingering around? Why are tanks milling about the countryside occupying towns when apparently they are meant to be leaving?

Its almost a display of bare-faced arrogance to the west, probably after the Poland defence deal thing.

reply to post by MischeviousElf


ME: the YouTube link isn't working, unfortunately. (Make sure you only have the numbers listed after v= on the YouTube URL.)

I suspect it's the guy with the beard. I saw this video about the day after the conflict started, and wasn't heavily influenced by his analysis. He has a wife and other relatives on the S.O. side, which has clearly coloured his views, to say the least.

I still suspect the S.O.'s deliberately goaded Georgia into retaliation. (They had been firing at Georgian positions for two days at least, according to local reports.) There are also reports that a Russian military build-up has been going on for weeks/months (but we've gone through those issues a few times on this thread & all acknowledge it's still too early to get anywhere near the bottom of the issue of who's to blame for the outbreak).

A rough translation of an article/radio interview from Echo of Moscow. It is somewhat critical of Russia's actions and compares them to U.S. actions in Iraq and Iran. This article tries to establish facts, rather than rely on rumors.

Keep in mind - this is in the Russian Press and freely available to all Russians - before making statements that Russia is all clouded by propaganda and lack of free speech. In fact this is the first time I witness so much public opposition to government's actions in Russia in recent years. There is an equal anger at Saakashvilli and the U.S. though. So most Russians are blaming all three sides today. This article largely ignores consequences for Georgia and the West, and focuses on just the consequences for Russia.


"Initial Conclusions for Russia Drawn From the War"



1. This war can be described as a "brilliant case of provocation", and was well prepared for by Russian armed forces - this is tough to deny. Everything was planned in advance, and the Russians were just waiting for the right moment - when Georgia would make the first wrong step.


2. In the current situation Georgia is very likely to have lost forever the de-facto republics of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia. Even Georgians are now likely to admit that these republics would not be able to be "reattached" to Georgia with further bloodshed.


3. Military loses of Georgia are higher than those of Russia. However in terms of economic, financial, and international-political relations "losses" suffered by Russia are higher than Georgia. The true cost of the war for Russia may not be determined untill many years into the future.


4. Russian leadership did not suceed in its main goals - toppling Saakashvilli; removing the current Georgian political regime from power; deny Georgia an entrance to NATO. The opposite occured in all of these instances. Saakashvilli and his pro-U.S. regime is stronger than ever, but not in terms of military - instead in terms of political alliances it had made and its victory of the PR war in the West. And Georgia is closer than ever to joining NATO. In these terms the war was a failure for Russian leadership.


5. Russia is correctly or incorrectly labeled as the aggressor by much of the world, for interfering in the territory of a sovereign nation - which is a member of UN. Georgia is recognized as the victim internationally. The PR war can be considered lost.


6. Russia ended up virtually in complete international-political isolation. The only nation to openly approve of Russian intervention is Cuba. Not even Iran, Venezuela, Uzbekistan, or Belarus dared to publically support Russia.


7. The international political "Big 8" (G8) is now de-facto "Big 7" (G7). This ousting of Russia from the circle of elite is nothing new however - it was started by U.S. and NATO back in early 2000's. First blow to Russia were the "colored revolutions [coups]" - especially in Georgia and Ukraine. Then was the Bucharest NATO summit. Now this war in Georgia. A true PR war is being waged against Russia for the last 6 years - the first long-term PR War on a Global scale.


8. Russian Russian leadership did achieve one very crucial objective succesfully - "that the modern outside world could not (and did not want to) believe - the renewal of the mass Fear of the Russian Bear". Russia had the world convinced at one point that it has invaded and overran Georgia without so much as stretching a muscle, while U.S. - a major Georgian ally - stood by and watched almost helplessly. Some Russian politicians and outside observers/politicians will see this as a major weakness of the West - it will not be forgoten for a long time to come.


9. For a period of time the Russian government was able to keep the Russian population in an informational isolation, filtering all news and material reaching mass media sources - but not over internet or satellite communications where Russians were still free to look at the whole picture. This allowed the Russian "regime" to virtually do whatever it wants for a short period of time. I am placing stress on this quote: "THIS FACT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A MAJOR THREAT TO THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE", and now that the people know they were deceived they will demand answers from the Russian government - a true test for Mr. Medvedev.


10. This can be termed an institutional catastrophe - a result of what is happening in the Russian government. While not isolated to Russian politics alone - the Russian people must not allow this unilateral ruling of the country by one strong party.

The main victims of the war are the Russian people because of this - and the real test for Russia is to come. Will the Russian government that has succeded in fixing the Russian economy, be able to save itself from the fate that succumbed the U.S. government? Will it be able to turn around its rising militaristic tone, and focus instead on developing people's freedoms and liberties? Or will it spiral out of control into a new Cold War - aided in no small part to the similar militaristic behavior of the U.S. government? Only the Russian people can answer this.


11. The war proved to be a test for Russian politicians - especially opposition to the ruling party - the so called Liberals and Democrats - who before the war accused Putin/Medvedev of leading the country on an imperialistic path. So of these politicians have bended under the pressure - and affirmed the ruling party's actions. Others have shown a stand in the Russian parliament, and raised serious questions. Many disapproved the "Path to Tbilisi", and warned that Russia must not give in to this weakness of invading others when it has the upper hand. Even the ruling party politicians in the parliament stated that they want no part in any invasion.

Could this be what saved Russia (yes Russia, not Georgia) from occupying a sovereign country? We can hope so.


12. The war proved once again the need for main principles that are key to upkeeping the moral of Russian citizens - these morals have been present among most Russians since the end of the Cold War, and hopefully will prevail for a long time to come - these morals are what kept Russia from invading:

- Do not believe the government no matter what. Listen but take everything with a grain of sand.

- Do not be afraid of the government irregardless of what it can mean to one's well being. The government should fear the many.

- Do not ask the government for any favors or to fight any partriotic wars or revenges. The government will carry out the favor, but take your liberties in return.

- Do not cooperate with the government or with any foreign governments. Choose a path that favors the people, instead of the path that favors some imperialistic ambitions or some factor of pride. Be cautious of blind patriotism.




In the article/interview it was stressed that all these cases in some form mirror to what happened to the U.S. when it invaded Iraq. In fact many Russians compare Russian participation in the conflict to the U.S. invasion of Iraq - only Russia decided for one reason or another not to proceed with a real invasion.


-Some quotes attributable to Russian political expert Andrew Illarianov.

[edit on 14-8-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by Mainer
What is the Russian take on the Ukraine's language today concerning the Navy?

Ukraine has the right to threaten the Black Sea fleet stationed in Sevastopol with strict enforcement of whatever regulations the Ukrainian government decides upon.

Many Russians say the following:
Let Ukraine threaten us, we don't care. But do not come crying to Russia or to the West, when Russia turns Ukraine's gas off again in the winter. Ukraine can do what it pleases with the Sevastopol port - as it is part of Ukraine. But Russia in turn can do whatever it pleases with Russia's resources and energy exports. Russia has every right to cut off the gas - just as Ukraine has every right to punish the Black Sea fleet. We'll see who needs who more.


By now Russia has secured alternative means of delivering gas exports to Europe through Belarus and Germany. It no longer relies on Ukraine as the sole path for its energy exports to Europe.

Also the Russian Black Sea fleet is already being gradually relocated to Russian Black Sea port of Novorosyisk. Russia planned to fully withdraw from Sevastopol by 2012. Now it will likely be as soon as 2009-2010. The withdrawing is more bad news for local Crimeans than for Russians. A large portion of Crimea is employed in servicing the Russian fleet and its personel. When the fleet is gone, the already pro-Russian Crimea will not be thrilled with Yuschenko.

reply to post by maloy


That was a bolt from the blue!

Firstly 'Ekho Moskvy' - The Moscow Echo is my favourite Russian radio station. The standard of analysis is on a par with any western media, even though they have nothing like the same budget, and this is no exception.

What I find striking is the hint of Russian democracy at work, albeit behind the scenes, keeping the 'hawks' at bay. Very unexpected.

It also has to be said that the issue of the government now having to face questions from the public about misinformation is also quite novel. Generally the government manages to whip up a sufficient degree of nationalism to deflect such probing questions. It will be interesting to see whether much disquiet transpires. I'm skeptical, what with most of the mass media still under tight control. (How does EM manage to keep telling it like it is?!) The TV will pour forth what people should think/believe as elsewhere on the planet, and the masses will more than likely be suckered, I'm afraid.

Anyway, just fascinating to hear that maybe, just maybe the Russian leadership may not be wielding absolute power to the degree we normally assume - and as a result may be listening to level-headed advice and avoiding catastrophic errors.

I only hope the US leadership listens to such voices as well.

I guess the war is over?
No new reports.It's all replays on CNN.
Told you guys this would fade in a few days.

reply to post by pepsi78

No offence but , tell that to the families of the victims
The war is over!







[edit on 14-8-2008 by all2human]

Another Russian article (no online source sorry):

If Georgia tried to immitate in its fight against S. Ossetian separatists Russia's own fight against Chechen separatists - then Russian behavior closely immitates the bahavior of U.S. in Iraq. Just as U.S. demonized Saddam, Russia demonized Saakashvilli.

...

The difference rests in the small legal details. U.S.'s excuse in iraq was Saddam's use of banned chemical weapons against Iraqi separatists. Saakashvilli used a rocket artillery system "GRAD" against the S. Ossetian separatists (on the 7th) - as cruel, lethal, and collaterally damaging as GRAD is, it is not a banned weapon by the UN/Geneva Convention. So on a technicality Saakshvilli did not violate any "law". Saddam is seen by the world as a criminal, largely thanks to his old ally - U.S. Saakashvilli on the other hand is not and likely will not be recognized as a criminal because of these technicalities, and because a major PR weapon (U.S./NATO) is on his side.

Nor is Saakashvilli going to be tried as Milosevich was. The dead S. Ossetian civilians can be legally described as "collateral damage of war". Milosevich on the other hand deported and killed people after the fighting "ended".

Russia has failed to legally demonize Saakashvilli - whether he deserves it or not.

Continued rought translation of what was discussed in Russian political intellectual circles:



Some say - in reality the conflict is not over. The "five-day war" did not solve much, and only created new issues for both sides. The "powder" did not burn up, and is still in place for a future conflict. But is this true?

Likely not for the following reasons:


Saakashvili did learn his lesson, his PR gains aside. His attempts to reunite Georgia nearly ended up costing Georgia its Sovereignty. Saakashvilli proved his inability to defend his country and rule with care and concern. He cannot afford to "ride on his allies forever". Saaka's allies "pulled him out" of the crep he got himself into. He remains in power on the wave of Georgian patriotism - or else he would be deposed by his people (his own army even) like President Gamzakhurdia once was.

Experts point out that Saaka will not be able to pull off this stunt "of pretending to be the victim of Russian imperialism" again. In reality Saaka lost the respect of many of his allies - even if they don't show it. it will turn out similar to Israel's war against Hezbolah in Lebanon (Georgia being Hezbolah). Israel (Russia) lost the war, but Nasrallah is evidently no longer so brash and hotheaded. Same will happen to Saaka - ultimately this war will quiet him down a bit.



As for Russian military - the government left it somewhat disappointed. The commanders wanted to show decisive Russian action and take down Saaka in a matter of days or even hours. But the Russian government did not let them.

Perhaps this explains their actions near Gori:

TO TBILISI!

NO NO RETREAT - THERE IS NO INVASION.

TO TBILISI THE SOLDIERS SHOUT AGAIN and pretend they are back in 1945 attacking Berlin.

NOPE - THIS IS A DIFFERENT TIME SAYS THE LEADERSHIP. Can't afford this now.



Basically Medvedev (AKA Putin as far as many are concerned) actions in relation to Russian military can be described as holding a Bear on a short leash. Enough to scare Saaka and the world out of their panties, but not letting it become a patriotic and glorious war to regain Russian imperial pride.




The fact why Russia never invaded is the following:

Russia cannot afford these imperialistic games, in a world run by the clubs of elite who watch Russia's every move with caution. Even if U.S. is acting hypocritically in not allowing Russia to have some cake while U.S. raids the whole bakery, the fact is that the U.S. can afford its wars - both economically and politically. US pulls enough strings to be able to pull its stunt off in Iraq. Russia's has no such strings to pull, apart from its oil/gas reserves - but that is not enough.

U.S.'s strings include it's allies which stand by it no matter what - even if their population doesn't like it. Russia's club of allies on the other hand includes such outcasts and clowns as Lukashenko and Chavez. And Ahmadinejad cannot even be considered an ally.



In the end - it looks like whatever Kremlin does it will not be accepted in the West. Maybe it can't communicate correctly? Maybe it can't even talk the talk let alone walk the walk? Or maybe the West is prejudiced? Who knows. Russia cannot act the part of U.S. or a superpower - it does not have enough allies or political/economic resources.

This war proved it to the Russian people and the Russian leadership. Russia must now choose a different strategy in approaching the West. China somehow "did it" well. These questions will haunt Russia for decades to comes. The world will remain with a sole-superpower for now.




Quotes and ideas attributable to Russian political intellectual Leonid Radzihovsky.

[edit on 14-8-2008 by maloy]

Originally posted by all2human
reply to post by pepsi78

 

No offence but , tell that to the families of the victims

I'm not offended.I'm just stating that as time go's on it will end if it's not over already.The sooner the better.I have the idea that some enjoy war on the tv.It's like a football game for them.It makes them excited and happy, gives them an oportunity to brag about it here on ATS on the topic of what side has the biger balls.As for the ones that lost family members in this short but brutal war there is nothing for them to do.They are the real loosers.It's sad that the weak one is always the looser but that is how things are.Many years will pass many more will die, many more wars will write history.
What would you prefere? a boring world with out anytihing to talk about or action on tv? It's in our nature.We only feel sorry for what is done only after we are consumed by the event.In this case a war.

I am not picking a fight but people write history,not war and the "losers"as you say the victims, in this war, they surely will.I just thought your"prediction"was a little insensitive as i know there are a few posters here with families in the war zone. sorry to side-track this thread. carry on


















[edit on 14-8-2008 by all2human]

RUSSIAN KEYS NEWS FOR AUGUST 14 (omitting news that have been posted already):


Monetary Costs of War

The direct cost of military actions for both sides can now be estimated with some accuracy. The war had cost Russia 2.5 billion rubles per day (about $100 million), and cost Georgia 4.8 billion rubles per day (about $190 million) - according to Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technology. These costs include aid to refugees as well as humanitarian aid distributed by the military. Nearly 1/2 of the cost of war - is for fuel. The Center did not yet estimate the costs of the destroyed Russian equipment - including one lost TU-22MZ and 3 lost SU-25. The military has not yet released information on lost armored vehicles.

rian.ru...



Russia Collects War Crimes Evidence Against Saakashvilli

Russian federal prosecutors are formulating a legal case against Saakashvilli for murder of civilians and peacekeepers. The investigation team is presently in the conflict zone collecting evidence. A group of Russian parliamentary politicians are also accussing Saakashvilli of Genocide, and have their own investigation team. They plan to take their case to the International Tribunal.

The investigators announce that they have uncovered evidence of Georgians executing civilians in basements of houses. "They were being finished off systematically" states one Senator. One senior prosecutor states that they plan to have a very sizeable amount of evidence - comparable to the evidence used during trials of Serb commanders in Hague. Chief blame will be placed on Saakashvilli.

www.interfax.ru...



Ultimatum to Put Down Weapons (August 11th but still relevent)

Russian troops and special law enforcement officers are carrying "demilitarization" throughout the conflict region according to a Russian General-Major. The ultimatum to put down weapons was issued to all Georgian forces and mercenaries in the zone of conflict. The ultimatum was followed through by Georgian forces in Zagdidi - said to be a large Georgian Spetznaz brigade with as many as 1,500 people - where they surrendered their weapons and were not detained.

Russian ministry explained that these measures are needed to prevent the conflict from escalating. Georgia on the other hand insists that it has no military forces but only police forces in the region, and protested Russians disarming Georgian police.

Also Russia explained that it wants to strengthen the peacekeeping force in S. Ossetia to prevent an attack on them like the one that occured on August 7th - when 10 peacekeepers were killed. Russia announced that it is not planning to escalate actions within Georgia's territory however.

www.interfax.ru...



Chances for Independence are Realistic

Russian experts and politicians state that Georgian aggression against S. Ossetia creates realistic chances for possible independence of the two breakaway regions. Bagapsh and Kokoity - presidents of Abkhazia and S. Ossetia have met today at an Interfax news conference. "We are not yet discussing specific dates, but we are moving towards being recognized as independent after Georgia's agrression" the two remarked.

Bagapsh reminded about the set precedents in Kosovo. He stated that before this war they did not want to use these precedents, but now they could. They two leaders said it is up to the people of these republics. They also commnicated their views to Russian President Medvedev.

Kokoity stated that "when they bombed Serbia [the U.S.] never concerned itself with Serbian territorial integrity, but now that Georgia is bombing SO, U.S. brings this arguement up".

The two leaders also announced that they would not accept any peacekeepers on their land besides Russians. They will however negotiate with UN to have UN peacekeepers monitor the region from Georgian borders. Kokoity states that UN observers who were in Georgia before the conflict knew about the impending attack and ignored it.

www.interfax.ru...



We Will Support Any Decision

Predent Medvedev stated that he will support any decision reached on their future respective states - for SO and Abkhazia. It appears he is ready to affirm their independence if they declare it. "Russia will be a guarantor" that any reached decisions are carried out Medvedev stated.

Leaders of both de-facto republics signed the agreement on the peace process - which had been negotiated between Medvedev, Sarkozy, and Saakashvilli.

The peace process document could include mention of Georgian territorial integrity. This could in turn be disputed by SO and Abkhazia stated Russian minister Lavrov, and could prove to stand in the way of the negotiations if the "territorial integrity" is mentioned in the document.

On thursday the SO parliament already asked Russia and the World to unofficially approve of the breakaway region's independence.

www.interfax.ru...



Ukraine is Split in Two and Timoshenko may be Reaching her own Agreement with Russia

Ukraine currently is not unanimous in its views on the conflict and on the recent arguement with Russia over the Black Sea fleet - and the country is virtually split in two according to Andrew Kislinsky - Secreatry of the President of Ukraine. According to him business-elites close to Ulia Timoshenko's political bloc, might have recently reached an agreement with Russia concerning sales of Russian gas to Ukraine and transfer to Europe through Ukraine.

It is rumored that Timoshenko promised the Russian government to slow down Ukraine's entry into NATO, and to cooperate with Russia. Moscow in turn is rumored to promise to support her in the next election.

(Timoshenko currently commands a lot of power in Ukraine's parliament - Rada. She was Yuschenko's ally when he came to power, but now has her own ambitions. The two are largely sparring for power, with her controling large part of the Ukrainian Parliament).

www.echo.msk.ru...

Have you guys seen these pictures out of Russia? WARNING SOME ARE GRAPHIC!!! If this has already been posted I'm sorry, it is a very large thread and I did not have time to read all the posts.



Link to pictures.

AlBeMeT

The U.S. version of a proposed peace agreement being offered to Russia would allow Russian forces to remain beyond the pre-conflict lines, but still outside of Georgia proper. The French version contains what the U.S. sees as a loophole which might be interpreted by Russia as the right to occupy Georgia proper. Secretary of State Rice is taking this new U.S. version to Tbilisi.

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is taking a cease-fire document to Tbilisi, Georgia, that would limit the role of Russian troops there in the peace agreement reached this week, a senior State Department official said.

It would offer a slight concession to Russia. The United States had initially insisted Russia immediately return all its troops to pre-conflict positions inside South Ossetia but would now allow them to patrol a small area outside in Georgia proper.

The French-brokered deal allows Russian peacekeepers to "implement additional security measures" until international security can be put in place.

That could be interpreted by Russia as operations outside South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two disputed border regions at the heart of the conflict. Russia had peacekeeping troops in those regions before last week.

www.cnn.com...

(Glad to see you back, by the way, Maloy! We need as many sides of this polyhedron as possible.)

[edit on 8/14/2008 by AceWombat04]

[edit on 14-8-2008 by all2human]

reply to post by AlBeMet


Those pictures were taken by an independent Russian photographer unassociated with any media. He risked going into the conflict zone alone while the fighting was still raging. The pictures mostly show the war from the perspective of Russian troops and S. Ossetian civilians.

The pictures mostly show Tskhinvalli - with all the destroyed Georgian armor there.



Interestingly enough that forum mentions the following: the Photographer followed the Chechen Russian forces battalion Vostok towards Gori. This could mean that it was the Chechens (serving the Russian military) who battled Georgians near Gori and were seen around the city in the last few days.

Indeed the troops in the pics appear to show the "Chechens" - we discussed them here many pages ago. Several BMP's say "Vostok - Yamaduyev" on it in white paint.

Most of the destroyed armor is Georgian. In some pictures you can see the troops holding captured Western weapons with English writing on them. The troops also appear to taken the Georgians military's trucks and weapons left behind.


[edit on 14-8-2008 by maloy]

reply to post by -Rugged Shark-


reply to post by wolfmanjack


Thank you both, that was what I was looking for.

Russian tanks on the move?

www.cnn.com...

Are they pulling out or moving in?

Breakway provinces feel that the war has validated their independence as a result of Georgia's failure to retake them

The leaders of South Ossetia and Abkhazia believe that Georgia’s botched military assault means they now have a better chance than ever of getting international recognition for their independence. Their respective leaders, Eduard Kokoity and Sergey Bagapsh, said they see no need to hold another referendum on their status, since their nations have already expressed their wills.

www.russiatoday.com...

[edit on 8/15/2008 by AceWombat04]