Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

reply to post by Double Eights


Well you can say it here if you want to.

But as said before, we can't be certain at this stage on who started this.
The major mistake was made at the very beginning by allowing both Russians and Georgians as peacekeepers.
That was kind of like asking the fox to guard the henhouse.

Russian tanks move further into Georgia

From correspondents in Tbilisi
August 15, 2008 05:14am
Article from: Agence France-Presse

ABOUT 130 Russian armoured vehicles have moved out of Georgia's western flashpoint city Zugdidi and began to penetrate deeper into Georgian territory, Interior Ministry Spokesman Shota Utiashvili said.

source

[edit on 14-8-2008 by -Rugged Shark-]

reply to post by chips


Zugdidi is in Georgia, how can they move into Georgia if they are already there?

Originally posted by Double Eights
How do I reply to someone who claims Russia is at fault for this conflict? They are saying Russia had been planning this attack for months and that the Georgians are free from fault.

I haven't been keeping up with this, but I am sure Russia isn't totally to blame.

If russia had this planed for months they would have completely overrun Georgia within the first 2 days. Not having to wait to bring in new troops and equipment.

I doubt that russia expected that idiot georgian leader to order his troops into the breakaway areas.

And all sided in the shooting war are just as guilty.. All of them



[edit on 14-8-2008 by wolfmanjack]

I would place any real escalation flash points at:

- Ukraine gets involved via their deceleration over the Russian Navy

- A US humanitarian plane/ship gets attacked (by accident or not).

- Russians begin an assault on the Georgian capital city.

Other than that there is not much more Russia can do that would get external factors involved any deeper.

reply to post by MischeviousElf

I feel if you ask the real "us" those lads in Iraq and Afghanistan at the moment they might actually disagree!

Dont count on it, I read an article a few days ago about soldiers in Iraq getting bored and wishing to go to a more militarily active theater like Afghanistan, they may jump at the chance to get out of the scorching desert and go kill some Russians.

Also, call me a puppet or w/e but I am a product of cold war propaganda and although i didnt really agree on invading Iraq, I wouldnt be the least bit bothered if asked to join up to kill some Russians.

reply to post by Mainer


You forgot this scenario:

Russia is playing chicken with Georgia. Russia keeps moving their troops deeper into Georgia, gambling that at a certain stage the Georgians will fire at them. Then they'll start like Georgia violated the ceasefire agreement and have an excuse to build up more forces in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

a little of "wag the dog" maybe? it seems we have yet another crisis to keep the people occupied

Reuters caught with 'fake' pictures from Georgia --Media war against Russia 10 Aug 2008 This morning one can read on the BBC news site -- Reuters agency posts horrible pictures of Russian bombardments of allegedly civilian residential buildings. But what if you take a closer look? [See: A Georgian man cries next to his brother's body in the town of Gori, 80 km (50 miles) from Tbilisi, August 9, 2008. REUTERS/David Mdzinarishvili. Here he is again, alone still with some clothes on, or may be he got changed. The man in the checkered shirt keeps returning!]

russia-insider.livejournal.com...

something big is happening

reply to post by ArMaP


I think it means they've advanced 'further' into Georgia.

Russian tanks moved further into Georgia

From correspondents in Tbilisi

August 15, 2008 05:14am

ABOUT 130 Russian armoured vehicles have moved out of Georgia's western flashpoint city Zugdidi and began to penetrate deeper into Georgian territory, Interior Ministry Spokesman Shota Utiashvili said.

More to come

(News.com)

This would confirm what the Reuters witness saw earlier on today.

[edit on 14-8-2008 by chips]

[edit on 14-8-2008 by chips]

I need an opinion. Exactly what number of troops would you say can be used to attack Tbilisi? 200 tanks, 300, how many?

reply to post by musselwhite


Oh, wasn't that the same site that claimed that the shelling in Gori on tuesday, in which several people died, including journalists was just a car accident?

AP Top News at 3:29 p.m. EDT
14 minutes ago

TBILISI, Georgia (AP) — Georgia's prime minister says a convoy of more than 100 Russian tanks and other vehicles are moving from the western city of Zugdidi deeper into Georgia. Lado Gurgenidze says it is unclear where the tanks are going. Speaking to reporters in a teleconference, he called it "a rather large column of Russian armor, over 100 pieces."

source

Now it's their PM saying it aswell.

Originally posted by -Rugged Shark-

You forgot this scenario:

Russia is playing chicken with Georgia. Russia keeps moving their troops deeper into Georgia, gambling that at a certain stage the Georgians will fire at them. Then they'll start like Georgia violated the ceasefire agreement and have an excuse to build up more forces in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

No, my sense of it is that Russia will have its run of Georgia so long as the Capital is not directly assaulted, just isolated.

Georgia is just a warning. Russia wants the Ukraine, that's where the real assets (resources) are located. Russia is drawing a line concerning NATO.

reply to post by Mainer


Nice of you to mention NATO. Wasn't there a NATO meeting scheduled for today?

But NATO can prevent your scenario by admitting the Ukrain to NATO let's say tomorrow. I don't think that the current NATO members have anything against the Ukrain joining.

Sure they will, the same way that they will not admit Georgia after this situation. NATO is a threat against Russia, they don't actually want to fight with Russia over these little countries.

NATO is like insurance, you spread the risk across everyone so that the reaction can be larger then an individual is capable of. These smaller countries are very risky, and their contributions are minimal. The post-conflict assessment of this engagement will show that Georgia in NATO would barely contribute the bare materials for the tripwire it would represent.

You really think the UK, or Norway, or Italy wants to slug it out with Russia over Georgia? If they let Georgia into NATO they will have to. Russia is already stuck on its northwest border by NATO, no way is it going to allow the entire western border region become a tripwire. She will make movements, and Georgia does not seem to have the diplomatic capability to keep itself out of trouble.

If I was a Ukrainian right now I would be very nervous. It is the highest value non-NATO target in the region.

Lots of Georgia war photos here:
The war in South Ossetia: 89 photos Arkady Babchenko

Warning: some images are rather graphic.

[edit on 14-8-2008 by Regenmacher]

The head of MID of the Ukraine calls those long ago ripened of measure relative to the Black Sea fleet

“Are in reality accepted the long ago ripened measures. About this we Russian associates told still since February 2005”, he said in ether “5 channels” on Thursday in the evening.

inter fax

Sorry, but it's a bablefish translation.

Originally posted by asen_y2k
I need an opinion. Exactly what number of troops would you say can be used to attack Tbilisi? 200 tanks, 300, how many?

It depends on exactly how many troops Georgia has in and around the city.

A good rule of thumb is at least a 2-1 advantage in numbers ..

* 1st Infantry Brigade, located in Gori
* 2nd Infantry Brigade, located in Senaki
* 3rd Infantry Brigade, located in Kutaisi
* 4th Infantry Brigade, located in Vaziani
* 5th Infantry Brigade, located in Khelvachauri (temporary distribution place) and Khoni
* Artillery Brigade, located in Gori and Khoni
* Military Engineering Brigade, located in Gori
* Separate Light Infantry Battalion, located in Adlia
* Separate Tank Battalion, located in Gori
* Separate Air Defense Battalion, located in Kutaisi
* Communication Battalion, located in Saguramo
* Technical Reconnaissance Battalion, located in Kobuleti
* Military Police Battalion, located in Tbilisi
* Medical Battalion, located in Saguramo

The strength of Land Forces is 26,739 from which 2,215 are officers, 24,508 NCOs (contracting) and 16 civilians.

(What i could find online) Unknown exactly what is left over.

Lets say (Pre war numbers) 200 main battle tanks (T-72's and T-55's)

about 400 or so armoured personnel carriers (Light armoured combat units)

200 pieces of artillery (includes both towed and self propelled)

180 MLRS units

900 or so mortar tubes ..

For all practical purposes the Georgian Air force and Navy has ceased to exist so they will not come into play.

given the prewar numbers here i would say to quickly take the city russia would need at least 300 tanks.. and 1-3 brigates of troops (5,000 troops per brigade)

Pre war numbers on georgia has them with roughly 25k infantry.. (Unknown exactily how many are in and around the city itself.

For more information look here
en.wikipedia.org...



[edit on 14-8-2008 by wolfmanjack]

Originally posted by Mainer
Sure they will, the same way that they will not admit Georgia after this situation. NATO is a threat against Russia, they don't actually want to fight with Russia over these little countries.

With all due respect, Ukraine has a population of 46 million people and a very large territory to go with it. Hardly it is a small and/or insignificant country.

Originally posted by wolfmanjack

Originally posted by asen_y2k
I need an opinion. Exactly what number of troops would you say can be used to attack Tbilisi? 200 tanks, 300, how many?

It depends on exactly how many troops Georgia has in and around the city.

A good rule of thumb is at least a 2-1 advantage in numbers ..

* 1st Infantry Brigade, located in Gori
* 2nd Infantry Brigade, located in Senaki
* 3rd Infantry Brigade, located in Kutaisi
* 4th Infantry Brigade, located in Vaziani
* 5th Infantry Brigade, located in Khelvachauri (temporary distribution place) and Khoni
* Artillery Brigade, located in Gori and Khoni
* Military Engineering Brigade, located in Gori
* Separate Light Infantry Battalion, located in Adlia
* Separate Tank Battalion, located in Gori
* Separate Air Defense Battalion, located in Kutaisi
* Communication Battalion, located in Saguramo
* Technical Reconnaissance Battalion, located in Kobuleti
* Military Police Battalion, located in Tbilisi
* Medical Battalion, located in Saguramo

The strength of Land Forces is 26,739 from which 2,215 are officers, 24,508 NCOs (contracting) and 16 civilians.

(What i could find online) Unknown exactly what is left over.

Lets say (Pre war numbers) 200 main battle tanks (T-72's and T-55's)

about 400 or so armoured personnel carriers (Light armoured combat units)

200 pieces of artillery (includes both towed and self propelled)

180 MLRS units

900 or so mortar tubes ..

For all practical purposes the Georgian Air force and Navy has ceased to exist so they will not come into play.

given the prewar numbers here i would say to quickly take the city russia would need at least 300 tanks.. and 1-3 brigates of troops (5,000 troops per brigade)

Pre war numbers on georgia has them with roughly 25k infantry.. (Unknown exactily how many are in and around the city itself.

For more information look here
en.wikipedia.org...



[edit on 14-8-2008 by wolfmanjack]

I think they can muster up 300 tanks to charge at Tbilisi. They already have that many no.s in Georgian territory. They can easily gather them and move towards Tbilisi, can they not?