Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Imhere

Ah. Deflection. Nothing to see here. Move along.

What does "Esquire" mean?

This video was just published by someone who wrote 2 books on the Russia-Ukraine war. You can skip the last minute of the video, where he promotes his own books. The best part of the video starts around 21:30 where he discusses how the Kursk offensive may have disrupted Trump's possible peace plan he keeps talking about, which may have been based on current front lines. He says that Russia is not going to want to give up Kursk (and Ukraine doesn't really want it), so a "freeze the current front lines" solution won't work. But if that's what Trump proposes, remember Trump said if Russia doesn't agree to his plan, then he will INCREASE support to Ukraine.

How the Kursk Offensive Advantages Ukraine in Future Peace Talks

Regarding the desperate “Kursk incursion” at best the trade off would be with northern regions of Kharkiv that Russia gained recently within the past months, after the other “Belgorod incursion”.

Kursk incursion proved thus far without a doubt incapable of stopping the current Russian offensive onslaught/advancement in the east at Donetsk etc.


All signs have now strengthened about Russia advancing ahead with the eastern side frontlines/town city stronghold collapsing at a higher tempo now despite any incursions.

If anything the incursions proved thus far to be just attempts to PR “annoy” Russia. Basically a bullet hitting a train that’ll just keep going on.

a reply to: Imhere

You keep telling yourself that, if it makes you feel better.

PS. You forgot to bang on about Azov/ Bandera.

Pokrovsk: Ukraine's vital eastern town in Russian sights

The town of Pokrovsk plays a crucial role as a logistics hub used by Ukrainian forces in the eastern region of Donbas. It is home to a key railway station, and it is located at the intersection of several important roads.

Meanwhile Zelensky has it’s best forces at the Kursk border capturing beaver dams for “tiktok”

Ukraine had hoped that by seizing territory in Russia's Kursk region it would be able to divert Russian troops away from their eastern advance, but that has not happened. If anything the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk, and Toretsk further to the north east, has intensified.

"Pokrovsk is a very important hub, a centre of defence. If we lose Pokrovsk, the entire front line will crumble," military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned.

Ukraine relies on the town's rail and road infrastructure to provide supplies and reinforcements to its troops on the eastern front line, as well as to evacuate the wounded.

Losing Pokrovsk to Russian forces would mean these vital military tasks would become far more complicated.

It would also increase the risk to other strategically important towns, such as Chasiv Yar, which sits atop commanding heights giving control over the wider area.

www.bbc.com...

a reply to: Imhere

Why do you delight in Russians supposed glorious "victories" at massive cost to human life whilst hand waving away Putins obvious embarrassment at being impotent about having his Motherland invaded?

And how he is now being openly criticized about it by influential Russian bigwigs?

Bit frit are we?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

Why do you delight in Russians supposed glorious "victories" at massive cost to human life whilst hand waving away Putins obvious embarrassment at being impotent about having his Motherland invaded?

And how he is now being openly criticized about it by influential Russian bigwigs?

Bit frit are we?

Why do you try to attack others posting news about the situation?

My source is from yours truly, BBC.

www.bbc.com...


If you’re looking for a biased one side Pro Zelensky echo chamber, there’s other platforms for that.

Such as a Zelensky/Ukraine discussion sections etc.

Or Zelensky’s/Biden’s Twitter page etc. Maybe not Harris, she’s still trying to find “Krynky” and “Berdychi” on the map lol

Balance is good carpy.

a reply to: Imhere

Your source also mentions the Kremlins media machine and Putins embarrassment about the Kursk incursion.

Sorry, but if you can't take it, don't dish it out.

So, What did you mean by "Esquire"?

a reply to: Imhere

"Balance is good carpy."

Indeed. You don't have any.

Same old, same old.

originally posted by: Imhere
Why do you try to attack others posting news about the situation?

My source is from yours truly, BBC.

www.bbc.com...

So the news from your source is, according to the Ukrainian soldier stationed there, that it's going to be a "huge challenge" for Russia to take that area, because of the large number of industrial buildings and significant defense lines?

A Ukrainian soldier stationed in Pokrovsk told the BBC's Ukrainecast podcast that the large number of industrial buildings in Pokrovsk and neighbouring towns such as Myrnohrad were very helpful to Ukrainian defences.

"They will have a huge challenge to get this area because it's a very industrialised area with pretty significant defence lines," said the soldier, identified as Ostap.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yeah, but it will all be over, soooon?

Apparently. According to Krumblin fanboys.....

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
Why do you try to attack others posting news about the situation?

My source is from yours truly, BBC.

www.bbc.com...

So the news from your source is, according to the Ukrainian soldier stationed there, that it's going to be a "huge challenge" for Russia to take that area, because of the large number of industrial buildings and significant defense lines?

A Ukrainian soldier stationed in Pokrovsk told the BBC's Ukrainecast podcast that the large number of industrial buildings in Pokrovsk and neighbouring towns such as Myrnohrad were very helpful to Ukrainian defences.

"They will have a huge challenge to get this area because it's a very industrialised area with pretty significant defence lines," said the soldier, identified as Ostap.

And?

Avdiivka was one not long ago.

Pretty much was hailed as one of the most entrenched/fortified areas in the east and Europe.

a reply to: Imhere

You delight in Russians killing Ukrainians?

How sad is that?

Putins last days?

Any comment on that?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

you do the exact opposite, you delight in Ukrainians killing Russians, therefore your comment has been neutralized to zero. I for one am mortified that thousands and thousands of Ukrainians who do not want to fight continue to be ordered to die.

I don't know if anyone posted the videos of the 115 POW swap Russia just traded for their recently captured Border guards and conscripts.

A big financial blow for Russia and Putin just hit the news.
You all may recall that Russia was supplying natural gas to Europe, and Putin threatened to freeze Europe in the winter if they interfered with Russia's takeover of Ukraine.

Putin thought Europe had no choice but to bow to his wishes, but, to Putin's shock, Europe found alternate supplies of gas and didn't freeze. Even the few countries left still buying Russia gas, like Austria, may end up backing out, causing further drops in Russian gas exports, and further reductions to the funding for Putin's war.

Is it the end for Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine?

Russia supplied a total of around 63.8 bcm of gas to Europe by various routes in 2022, according to Gazprom data and Reuters calculations. That volume decreased, by 55.6%, to 28.3 bcm last year...

Gazprom, which holds about 16% of global gas reserves and employs nearly half a million people, was once one of Russia's most powerful corporate empires - so powerful it was known as "a state within the state".

But it has fallen on hard times due to the loss of the European gas market.

The company plunged to a net loss of 629 billion roubles in 2023, its first annual loss in more than 20 years, amid dwindling gas trade with Europe, once its main sales market.

Ukraine, once an integral part of the Soviet Union, also earns money from the transit.

So Gazprom has already experienced a 55% drop in natural gas exports as of last year, and Gazprom went from starting out as a funding source for Putin's war, to now losing money and being an economic drain on Russia instead. It looks like it may get worse, because Ukraine said it does not plan to extend the agreement to transport Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine, which expires in December 2024:

What Ukraine's Russia incursion means for EU gas supply

How much longer is Russian gas likely to flow to Europe via Ukraine?

In December 2019, Moscow and Kyiv struck a five-year gas transit deal involving state companies Gazprom and Naftogaz for the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine.

The deal expires in December 2024 and Kyiv has long signaled that it does not want to extend it. Russia says it will continue to supply gas until the deal expires.

If it is not renewed, Russian gas will stop flowing through Ukraine.

That will be even more damage to the already unprofitable Gazprom if the deal ends later this year.

But, Putin thought he had a solution to restore some of his gas revenue by building a pipeline through Mongolia to China, and selling gas to China. However, in what must be another devastating blow to Russian natural gas exports, that deal has apparently broken down, as we learned from Mongolia.

China In Eurasia Briefing: The Power of Siberia-2 Pipeline Hits A Snag In Mongolia

Mongolia's government voted not to to include the Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline that connects Russia to China through its territory in its spending plans for the next four years, a sign that the megaproject may be on hold.

Finding Perspective: Mongolia's new coalition government voted on August 16 for its action program for its four-year term and notably did not include the 2,594-kilometer pipeline, meaning they don't expect the ambitious project to begin construction during that span.

While the bulk of the energy project rests between Beijing and Moscow reaching an agreement, Mongolia would need to be involved in construction and transmission fee negotiations.

Power of Siberia-2, which is a joint project between the China National Petroleum Corporation and Gazprom, would take at least five years to build and would look to bring gas from the huge Yamal Peninsula reserves in western Siberia to China.

Much of these reserves were originally intended to be sold to the European Union, but Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has left Moscow looking for a new market in China, the world's largest consumer of natural gas.

But Beijing currently has no particular incentive to agree to the new pipeline, and there have been ongoing disputes and tough negotiations between China and Russia over price and supply levels.

In June, the Financial Times newspaper, citing "people familiar with the matter," reported that talks are frozen over what Russia sees as China's unreasonable demands.

So this is really bad news for Gazprom and thus for Russia's economy, especially since some have quipped that Russia is "a gas station pretending to be a country", meaning it's economy was based mainly on exporting gas, oil and related products. Now its economy has grown by making more artillery shells and gliding bombs, but they tend to just blow those up instead of getting any profits from exports, in fact as we all know they are actually importing lots of artillery shells from N Korea and Iran. Russia's once profitable gas exports are no longer profitable and they just lost the China solution to that problem, for what appears to be at least the next 4 years.

So this terrible Russian economy is part of the reason that "Inside Russia" says Putin's days are numbered, and it looks like it's getting worse. More details here:

Putin's Last Days | And Other World News As Seen From Russia


More about Russia's devastated economy here:

Will Russian Economic Recover After This Blow? | This Is A Kursk Update!


He says the Kursk "situation" will make Russia's failed economy even worse. Some people have disputed that pointing out how small Ukraine's territory is in Kursk compared to the size of Russia, but he says you can't compare it to all of Russia, you have to compare it to the amount of very fertile farmland like Kursk has, which the majority of Russia does not have. Anyway, the Russian economy is already pretty bad even if Kursk doesn't make it that much worse, just look at Gazprom actually losing money instead of being profitable! Also consider the other aspects of Russia's failed economy discussed in the video.

24 August Update

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations within their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 24, and neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made any significant claimed advances.

Ukraine and Russia conducted their first prisoner of war (POW) exchange since the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.

Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Ukraine claim to have recaptured the settlement of Kurdiumivka in Donetsk Oblast from Russian occupiers.

a reply to: worldstarcountry

"you delight in Ukrainians killing Russians, "

No, I don't.

I've just caught this update!!

dailywrap.ca...

Russian state TV breaks silence, admits potential defeat in Ukraine

loomy moods in Russia. The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast surprised Moscow to such an extent that, for the first time since the beginning of the war, Russian state television openly speaks of a possible defeat.

On the broadcast of state television Rossia 1, Russian director Karen Shakhnazarov, known for his support of Vladimir Putin, made a shocking statement regarding the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast.

We should stop saying that everything is fine - said the director at one point. A dead silence fell in the TV studio as Shakhnazarov continued. - Why do we deceive ourselves? We must assume we can lose - he said to the host's astonishment.

- This is not defeatism, not spreading panic. Everyone must understand the price that our homeland must pay - continued Putin's propagandist.

originally posted by: Kurokage
I've just caught this update!!

dailywrap.ca...
"Russian state TV breaks silence, admits potential defeat in Ukraine"

One reason Russia isn't going to win...They began the war with huge stockpiles of soviet weapons like tanks and artillery pieces in storage, but those stockpiles are largely depleted. They should last through the end of 2024 but sources suggest they will run out sometime in 2025. This is significant because Ukraine is destroying Russian tanks and artillery faster than Russia can produce them, so Russia's attacks will get weaker and weaker, probably some time next year.

Russia’s huge stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons are dwindling

At the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia seemed to have an unassailable advantage. Now, as stocks of Soviet-era armaments begin to run dry, the scales may be balancing.

Russian Weapons Stockpiles Depleted Amidst Ongoing Conflict, But Remain Sufficient for 2024 Warfare

So if Russia makes it to 2025, it looks like 2025 will be a very bad year for them when they run out of the soviet-era weapons they've relied on for their current pace of fighting.

Regarding Kursk though, didn't Karen Shakhnazarov see the caption on Jake Broe's recent video saying losing Russian territory was part of Russia's plan?


www.youtube.com...@JakeBroe/videos

See the upper left caption, haha.
The caption under that sounds more like Putin though, saying "I will punish greatly those who failed me". He just jailed a high ranking general for "corruption", but they are all corrupt so it must have been for something else. If he was jailing generals for corruption, they would all be in jail.

What Putin has done is punished his competent generals for telling him the truth, and he's kept the incompetent generals in power as long as they are loyal and tell him what he wants to hear. That's the only way incompetent Gerasimov has lasted this long but even he got fired from being in charge of the army fighting off the Kursk invasion.

One of my favorite captions there, is Putin asking "Are they stealing our washing machines?" Because, you may recall, Russia was stealing Ukraine's washing machines when they invaded Ukraine.

There's apparently a lot of looting going on in Kursk etc, Russians stealing from Russians, Russian state media has called then "Russian Gypsies", but the Russian guy on "inside Russia" doesn't think there are gypsies there, he says it's state media lies as usual. Also, security cam footage in shops there shows Chechen soldiers looting the stores. So there's plenty of looting and stealing going on, but I haven't heard yet if Ukraine is stealing any washing machines, seems like their transports may be too full of surrendered prisoners to have much space left for washing machines.