Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

An interesting update from laurynas kasčiūnas , Lithuania's Minister of Defence , while visiting Ukraine a few days ago kasčiūnas claimed Russia is pulling it's troops out of their Kaliningrad territory to redeploy in Kursk , given the history of recent and past protests in Kaliningrad against Putin , Russia and their union , Putin may find while the cat's away the mice will play.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

seems like their transports may be too full of surrendered prisoners to have much space left for washing machines.

They already returned the prisoners who surrendered from the Kursk offensive. Are you referring to POW's from the Ukraine front?

Recent footage from Russian Iskander strikes disabling soviet Buk 9k37 air defense system in Sumy region.

a reply to: worldstarcountry

Some Ukrainian drone footage.

twitter.com... b1f46834942c45375a50dca0%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Feurope%2Fukraine-russia-war-kursk-incursion-put in-drone-missile-b2601478.html

originally posted by: worldstarcountry
They already returned the prisoners who surrendered from the Kursk offensive. Are you referring to POW's from the Ukraine front?

My sources say Ukraine captured at least 200 prisoners documented on video in Kursk, and 115 were returned, so they haven't all been returned. Do you have a source that says otherwise (besides liars in Russian state media)?

Ukraine has captured more than 200 Russian soldiers in Kursk offensive, videos show

As Ukraine marks independence anniversary, Moscow and Kyiv swap prisoners of war

The Russian Defense Ministry said the 115 Russian soldiers had been captured in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces launched their surprise offensive into Russia two weeks ago.

So if over 200 were captured and only 115 were returned, then not all were returned, right?
And Ukraine has about 3000 Russian troops trapped where they blew the bridges, we don't know yet how many of those will end up surrendering but they can't last forever there without supply routes, their pontoon bridges keep getting destroyed soon after they make them.

Zelensky unveiled a previously secret jet powered drone that Ukraine developed today on Ukraine independence day. The details are still secret, but we can see what it looks like, it's compact so it will be hard to detect.

It should solve a problem Ukraine had attacking Russian airfields with their propeller-powered drones, which is they are slow, so once Russia sees them heading toward an airfield, they have time to fly the planes away from the airfield before the drone gets there. The idea with the jet powered drone is, it may be harder to detect to begin with since it's smaller, and it will arrive much faster, hopefully taking away Russia's chance to fly the planes away before the drones arrive.

“Difficult to counter”: Zelenskyy unveils new domestic missile-drone system to strike Russians

On Ukraine’s Independence Day, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed the country’s latest military innovation – the “Palianytsia” missile-drone, that has been already successfully used against Russian forces. He emphasized that, “It’s difficult to counter, but very easy to understand why.”

You can see some video of the new drone here, looks like a clever design:

UKR Reveals Top Secret Jet Drone! RU Air Defenses Powerless!


It looks sort of like a budget cruise missile, the combat veteran notes.

25 August Update

A Russian milblogger claimed on August 25 that Russian forces regained lost positions in Komarovka (southwest of Korenevo) and are repelling small Ukrainian attacks in the area. (Me: Koronevo is on the west side of the Russian territory occupied by Ukraine.)

Russian forces recently advanced near and within Toretsk and southwest of Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
A Russian milblogger claimed on August 25 that Russian forces regained lost positions in Komarovka (southwest of Korenevo) and are repelling small Ukrainian attacks in the area. (Me: Koronevo is on the west side of the Russian territory occupied by Ukraine.)

One vlogger explained there are actually two Koronevos next to each other, and pointed them out on a map and said that is creating a lot of confusion about what is going on, because people don't specify which Koronevo they are talking about. The eastern one he called the village of Koronevo and said Ukraine controls it, and the western settlement looked more densely developed, he called that the town of Koronevo and said that's a gray zone because Ukraine has forces there, but they don't control it

Anybody interested can see the explanation and the map starting at 30 seconds in this video:

Russia PANICS: Ukraine’s New Weapon Is the BEST - Ukraine War Map Update 25/Aug/2024

He says Ukraine expects that as Russian supplies in the "cauldron" are depleted, the Russians will have to either run or surrender, and in either case, Ukraine expects to get the Russian equipment they leave behind (because they can't take it with them when they escape by swimming across the river). Some Russians are still surrendering.

originally posted by: worldstarcountry
They already returned the prisoners who surrendered from the Kursk offensive. Are you referring to POW's from the Ukraine front?

Ukraine is still taking Russian prisoners in Kursk, as explained here:

Update from Ukraine | A breakthrough to the North | Many Ruzzian Soldiers captured | Ahmat runs Away


I won't be surprised if Ukraine takes more Russian prisoners, as the Russian supplies are depleted, but I think Ukraine will be just as happy if the Russians with no supplies just run away so they can take the territory without any fighting. In fact that's why Ukraine staggered the destruction of the three bridges instead of destroying all three at once, to give Russians a chance to run away using the one remaining bridge, before it was destroyed. They could have escaped with their equipment back then. Now, it looks like Russians will have to leave their equipment behind if they run, because Ukraine is watching carefully for pontoon bridges and making sure they are destroyed.

I hear both Russia and Ukraine have sent reinforcements to Kursk. If Russia sent its first tier fighters to Kursk they would still need at least double what they have in Kursk to push Ukraine out, but apparently Russia is keeping first tier fighters in the Donbas and only sending second and third tier fighters to Kursk, so Russia will probably need way more than double the forces they currently have in Kursk, to push Ukraine out.

Hopefully, this is nonsense or turns out to be incorrect, or a mistake.

Because an attack on Poland equates to Article 5.

And i think Russia have already been warned about airspace violations.

a reply to: andy06shake
This article says Russia launched an attack on Ukraine consisting of 100 missiles and 100 drones, as retaliation for the Kursk buffer zone operation. If they got 199 out of 200 to go to Ukraine and only one strayed, that's not a high percentage of misfires. If NATO was looking for an excuse to invoke article 5, they might be able to use this, but I don't think NATO wants to send troops to die in Ukraine yet, so it will probably be like the last incursion into Poland's airspace by Russia, where Poland says "please don't do that again".

Poland says drone likely entered its airspace during Russian attack on Ukraine

WARSAW, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Poland said that a drone had likely entered its airspace early on Monday morning during a Russian bombardment of Ukraine, adding that the object may have landed on Polish territory and that searches were underway.

Russia launched more than 100 missiles and around 100 attack drones at Ukraine during Monday's morning rush hour, killing at least five people and striking energy facilities nationwide, officials said.

If only 5 people died, that seems like a low death toll for 100 missiles and 100 drones. I wonder how many Ukraine was able to shoot down? We will probably hear some figures from Ukraine about that. We already know Ukraine has some power outages resulting from the strike, and that Ukraine plans to retaliate against Russia:

Russia strikes energy infrastructure across Ukraine, forcing power outages

Ukrainian officials did not provide details about the extent of damage to the country’s energy grid and other infrastructure installations. But they promised retaliation for the strikes. “The desire to destroy our energy system will cost the Russians dearly on their own infrastructure,” presidential adviser Andriy Yermak wrote on Telegram.

Ukraine is trying to decentralize their energy infrastructure, so the destruction of some big power plants will be less of a problem if there are lots of small power plants that can keep the grid up. The idea is that Russia won't be able to hit all the smaller plants, but this is a big project, and Ukraine is still vulnerable now.

26 August Update

Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that Russian forces launched three Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" aeroballistic missiles from Ryazan and Lipetsk oblasts; six Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles from Kursk and Voronezh oblasts and occupied Crimea; 77 Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers from Volgograd Oblast and the Caspian Sea; 28 Kalibr cruise missiles from both surface and underwater missile carriers in the eastern Black Sea; three Kh-22 cruise missiles from Voronezh Oblast; 10 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles from an unspecified number of Su-57 fighter aircraft and Su-34 fighter-bombers in airspace over Belgorod Oblast and occupied Mariupol; and 109 Shahed drones from Yeysk and Primorsk-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, Kursk Oblast, and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea. Oleshchuk noted that Ukrainian forces shot down one Kh-47 "Kinzhal," one Iskander-M, one Kh-22, 99 total Kh-101s, Kalibrs, and Kh-59s, and 99 Shaheds, and that an unspecified number of Shaheds missed their targets and crashed elsewhere in Ukraine, while two more crossed into Belarusian airspace. Polish Armed Forces Commander Major General Maciej Klisz noted that at least one drone temporarily crossed into Polish airspace during the Russian strike series.

Ukrainian intelligence services reported on August 25 that Belarus amassed forces in Gomel Oblast (which shares a border with northern Ukraine) and has deployed a significant number of personnel, including special operations forces (likely in reference to Spetsnaz units), weapons, military equipment, and fighters from the former Wagner Group.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations within their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 26, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made any significant confirmed or claimed advances.

Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kharkiv City, north of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Pokrovsk, and west of Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

If only 5 people died, that seems like a low death toll for 100 missiles and 100 drones. I wonder how many Ukraine was able to shoot down?

Does seem like rather a low death toll considering the alleged ordinance expended.

As to the decentralisation of their energy infrastructure, that would seem to make sense, i dont know how viable it is all the same where the creation of lots of small power plants is concerned.

I guess if that is their plan, it must have merit, or else they would not be doing so.

a reply to: andy06shake
De-centralizing electricity production appears to be more viable for corporations that have money, and not so viable for low-income residents that don't have money, because it takes money. A number of corporations have already built their own gas turbine generators so they don't have to rely on the electric grid. But that's not helping low income people who rely on the grid. This article explains some details of the effort:

‘You have power, or you don’t:’ Ukraine’s energy crisis drives power decentralization

Ukraine wants to generate more energy in smaller amounts closer to users, rather than centralized facilities that are targets for Russian strikes. Though the war has created willpower to redesign the energy system, it has also created serious obstacles

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
26 August Update

More at URL above.

Cheers

So Ukraine shot down something like 101 of 127 missiles and 99 of 109 drones? If that's accurate, that's more than I would have expected. Attacks that large can overwhelm air defenses.

Russia always seems to report they shot down all missiles and drones launched by Ukraine, including for the attack on the storage tanks that have been burning for 8 days. So according To Russian media I guess that fire must have been started by something other than Ukraine's attack? Maybe a careless smoker?

Oil depot attacked by Ukrainian army burns for 8th day in Rostov region, Russia

a reply to: Arbitrageur

See that was kind of my thinking.

Sounds good on paper but in practice.........

Its just going to make the cost of supplying electricity astronomical by my guess given the state of warfare.

If it did happen to work through its probably something a lot of nations should consider.

Considering the energy companies continue to experience record profits whilst hanging on to our ging gang goolies with somewhat of a tight grip.

a reply to: andy06shake

I'd guess the sunk costs can be planned for. More troublesome may be keeping the grid balanced with many small generating sources.

Cheers

Russian partisan forces aligned with Ukraine have done raids on Belgorod in the past, which didn't last too long. But because of those raids, I would expect Russia somewhat anticipated such raids can happen again and thus Russia should be at least somewhat prepared for them in Belgorod.

In breaking news from a couple of sources, it appears that at one border crossing, 8 Ukraine armored vehicles and up to 60 soldiers are making an attack at the Belgorod border, and maybe another Belgorod attack too, but confirmed information is hard to come by now in the "fog of war" in the early stages of the attacks.

If Ukraine could get behind the Russian forces in the Vovchansk "buffer zone" in Ukraine, maybe they could cut off Russian supplies to Vovchansk, but I don't think they can do that with just 60 soldiers. But Gerasimov reported 1000 Ukraine troops invaded Kursk and he eliminated 945 of those, so those 55 soldiers left apparently can do anything (just making fun of Gerasimov's lies, I'm sure it was more than 55, there may be 10,000 Ukraine troops in Kursk now).

Here's a report about the Belgorod "situation":

BREAKING: Ukraine Incursion into Belgorod!

Some more details are leaking out of Ukraine about their recently partially de-classified cruise-missile-style drone, Palyanitsa. The video below mentions that Ukraine has repeatedly sought permission from the US to use long-range ATACMS deep inside Russia to strike airfields etc, but the US has only given limited permission close to the international borders.

Now we are hearing that like some versions of the ATACMS, Ukraine's palyanitsa missile drones can explode in the air, before impact, to mimic the ATACMS cluster munitions, which is especially helpful for airfield attacks where wide dispersion of lots of shrapnel can severely damage a number of aircraft with the same missile. Ukraine forces have been devastated by Russian gliding bombs, but it looks like they have been successful in releiving some of this pressure by attacking the airfields which are home to the aircraft that drop the gliding bombs and the storage areas for the bombs.

This video explains those recent successes, and claims the gliding bombs are less of a problem now after the attacks on Russian airfields with various types of drones and missiles, including the palyanitsa missile drones, the missiles the youtube thumbnail refers to where it says "We have own ATACMS now".

27 Aug: New Ukrainian Missile-Drones with Cluster Munitions Annihilate Russian Airbases

Several geolocated videos quickly emerged, capturing the large fires that erupted following the explosions. The next day, satellite images provided a clearer picture of the extensive devastation inflicted on the impact area by this new Ukrainian weapon. It is expected to be deployed in large quantities, as it is cheaper and easier to produce than the Neptune anti-ship cruise missile, which the Ukrainians have already successfully adapted for other uses. Notably, these new drones do not explode upon impact but instead detonate as they approach their targets. This approach was developed to maximize the destructive potential of cluster munitions, as mid-air explosions significantly expand the area of damage, as evident in the released images. As a result, a swarm of these drones can effectively substitute for ATACMS missiles, which are restricted from being used deep within Russian territory. Flying at speeds exceeding 400 kilometers per hour, these drones offer a formidable alternative for traditional long-range munitions.

This Ukrainian operation followed a series of highly effective strikes against targets in the Volgograd and Krasnodar regions in the preceding days. Sources within Ukraine’s Security Service revealed that they successfully targeted several warehouses stocked with glide bombs and fuel at the Marinovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast. According to these sources, the Russian aircraft stationed there had been actively involved in bombing Ukrainian frontline settlements and positions. The strike triggered numerous secondary explosions in the warehouses. Geolocated footage captured plumes of smoke and explosions, while satellite imagery confirmed significant damage to the hangars housing Su-34 fighter jets. Reports later indicated that at least one aircraft was destroyed, and several others sustained severe damage due to the type of ammunition used by the Ukrainians. All uncensored footage of the destruction of the Russian aircraft and bomb storages can be found on our Telegram channel through the link in the description.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

oh wow, ok so which video did you count 200 prisoners on? So there are an outstanding 85 prisoners, allegedly from the initial incursion ... ok. And despite how they love to show off freshly captured prisoners, no such additional mass captures are noted. You shouldn't try so hard, it comes off as desperate. For crying out loud the screen grab is from the same initial offensive. Did I not say that media would do exactly that so many pages back when this first happened? That they will keep updating with the same images from different angles and enhanced to continue to make it look like new gains. Of course you are privy to all of this and complicit in it, so I suppose it should not be unexpected. We should spend the next four pages going back and forth on the nuances of this too, just for good measure.

I need January asap so Trump can end this war and Europe can cannibalize whatever remains of Ukraine.
a reply to: andy06shake
lets make certain that this was not another Ukrainian errant air defense missile, like last time.

Ukraine claims a hotel with foreign journalists and their guards was hit. When can we expect a list of names, pictures, and nationalities of the murdered journalists so their respective consulates can take appropriate measures?

a reply to: worldstarcountry
So you cope with denial?
You can ask the Post for more details on their analysis which shows at least 247 prisoners independently verified:

Ukraine has captured more than 200 Russian soldiers in Kursk offensive, videos show

The Washington Post reviewed more than 130 photos and videos taken since the incursion began Aug. 6, most of which appear to have been filmed by Ukrainian soldiers and shared on social media. The analysis also included photos taken by a Post photographer at a prison housing captured Russian soldiers in Ukraine. The verified visuals depict at least 247 Russian prisoners and support Ukrainian officials’ claims to have captured hundreds of Russians during the incursion...

New videos and photos continue to be posted online, and The Post did not count prisoners seen in visuals it could not independently verify, meaning that the actual number of Russian prisoners taken during the offensive is much higher.

Ukraine's top general claims 594 prisoners were captured. That includes prisoners which have not been independently verified by the Post.

Ukraine says it’s seized nearly 600 Russian POWs in Kursk attack

Ukraine has captured 594 POWs so far during its incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Kyiv's chief commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said Tuesday.

The top general claimed that the surprise operation, ongoing for three weeks now, has managed to distract a "significant number of Russian soldiers."

27 August Update

Russian forces have made significant tactical advances in the Pokrovsk direction amid reports that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from select areas southeast of Pokrovsk. Geolocated footage published on August 27 confirms that Russian forces have advanced over two kilometers from their last confirmed position into northwestern Novohrodivka (southeast of Pokrovsk) along Dubinina Street, suggesting that Russian forces additionally hold positions within the central part of the town.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on August 27 that Ukrainian forces used F-16 fighter jets to down missiles during Russia's most recent massive drone and missile strike against Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers