Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

It looks like Ukraine are advancing in Belgorod region.

Fighters from Ukraine’s 252nd Territorial Defense Battalion recorded a video, shared Saturday, standing outside a building identified as the village club in Poroz — a settlement in Russia’s Belgorod region less than two miles from the border. The Washington Post could not immediately verify the video’s authenticity or when it was taken.
www.washingtonpost.com...

originally posted by: gortex
It looks like Ukraine are advancing in Belgorod region.

Fighters from Ukraine’s 252nd Territorial Defense Battalion recorded a video, shared Saturday, standing outside a building identified as the village club in Poroz — a settlement in Russia’s Belgorod region less than two miles from the border. The Washington Post could not immediately verify the video’s authenticity or when it was taken.
www.washingtonpost.com...

Majority of U.S. can give a rats a**. And doesn’t publicly acknowledge much less celebrate the incursion. As it will fail.

But media cope is in effect for Zelensky supporters around lol

Need a distraction while the eastern sectors are collapsing.

originally posted by: Imhere
Need a distraction while the eastern sectors are collapsing.

Putin seems to be distracted enough, so maybe that's part of the plan. Instead of announcing more victories and saying his special military operation is going according to plan, he's having to hold emergency press conferences to announce that Ukraine is invading Russia, not only distracting but not a good look for Putin's grip on power.

If he sends troops from where they are concentrated in the Donbass, to help drive Ukraine out of Russia, don't you think that distraction will help make Russia weaker on the eastern front? It's not like all of his troops have good training to deal with maneuver warfare, so if he wants to have a chance in succeeding in driving Ukraine out, he can't send a bunch of untrained conscripts there to just get captured along with the 300 who have already been captured.

More good news for Ukraine.
While analysts have noted that the Russian response to Ukraine's invasion seems somewhat chaotic and unorganized, possibly due to poor training and poor communication, things may be about to get even worse for Russia thanks to a new Russian law that Putin just signed.

Some of you may have seen numerous videos made by Russian soldiers, whining and complaining about the terrible conditions they are fighting in, and that they have shortages of food and ammunition. Most recently, a number of these have come from the area of Vovchansk in the north. For obvious reasons, Putin does not like these videos going viral and pointing out to the world his morale and poor logistics and supply problems. So, his solution is to sign a law passed by the Russian Duma to take away the cell phones of the soldiers, so they will stop making these videos which are highly embarassing for Putin.

Russian military commanders enforce strict phone ban to conceal frontline struggles and silence dissent
Apparently mobile phone use was already banned, but Russian commanders were supposed to involve military courts in dealing with violations, but the new law gives Russian commanders greater powers to deal with violations without involving military courts.

Why is this good news for Ukraine? What Putin and the lawmakers don't seem to realize (or maybe they do and don't care?), is that those phones were used for a lot more than whining about the poor conditions and supply shortages and huge loss percentages in the meat wave attacks. Russians soldiers have been using the phones for communications with other soldiers to coordinate efforts, and less phones means less communication, which is good for Ukraine. Poor communication by Russian soldiers in Kursk is probably one reason Ukraine has been able to advance so far so fast.

The US has been sending secure communications equipment to Ukraine, and I would expect Russia developed their own, but maybe not enough of it to go around and maybe the chip shortage from sanctions hampers Russia's ability to produce more, which is why they have been using phones to communicate.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
Need a distraction while the eastern sectors are collapsing.

Putin seems to be distracted enough, so maybe that's part of the plan. Instead of announcing more victories and saying his special military operation is going according to plan, he's having to hold emergency press conferences to announce that Ukraine is invading Russia, not only distracting but not a good look for Putin's grip on power.

If he sends troops from where they are concentrated in the Donbass, to help drive Ukraine out of Russia, don't you think that distraction will help make Russia weaker on the eastern front? It's not like all of his troops have good training to deal with maneuver warfare, so if he wants to have a chance in succeeding in driving Ukraine out, he can't send a bunch of untrained conscripts there to just get captured along with the 300 who have already been captured.

Short term bubble that’ll rapidly collapse on itself.

a reply to: Imhere
You didn't really answer the question. It won't collapse by itself, it will take intervention by Russian troops.
Where will those intervening troops come from? Eastern Ukraine?

Ukraine is not looking at this as a short term incursion like previous forays into Russia by Russian partisans. This time there are actual Ukrainian troops, and they are digging in, building defense lines, and mining some roads in and out of the area. They are setting up supply lines and attacking Russian convoys trying to go to that area, with considerable success. The equipment destroyed in the Russian convoys was not particularly good equipment like T62 tanks, apparently most of Russia's good equipment is being used in Ukraine.

Of course Ukraine doesn't want Russia's territory long term, but it looks like they are trying to hold it for some time, as a bargaining chip.

10 August Update

The Russian National Antiterrorism Committee announced a counterterrorism operation in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts on August 9 in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. (Me: Actually, it is conventional warfare, not terrorism that is taking place in the Kursk Oblast. The Russian approach means the FSB will supposedly coordinate the operation. Wonder how that will sit with the Russian army warlords. ). . . . Russian milbloggers have been suggesting that the Kremlin formally declare war against Ukraine and criticized the Kremlin for failing to declare martial law instead of the counterterrorism operation.

Russian forces appear to be more adequately defending against Ukrainian assaults following the arrival of additional conscripts and more combat effective personnel from frontline areas in Ukraine.

Geolocated footage and Russian reporting from August 10 indicate that Ukrainian forces largely maintain previously reported positions in Kursk Oblast and have advanced slightly further than their previously confirmed positions.

Ukrainian forces recently struck a Russian ship and a gas platform in the western Black Sea.

Reuters, citing multiple intelligence sources including two European intelligence sources, reported on August 9 that Russian MoD representatives signed a contract with Iran on December 13, 2023, for the delivery of Fath-360 close range ballistic missiles . . .

Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Russian propagandist Sergey Mardan speaking on Solovyov Live has said Russia should launch a Nuclear strike on Russia , more specifically Kursk region , he thinks people would initially be upset but would understand it was logical.


I know it's just one nutter spouting off to another nutter but I think it's funny , it also reeks of desperation and failure.

Day 899 of war. Address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy , "restoring justice" and putting "pressure on the aggressor".

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Oh Ukraine will try to hold this territory as a bargaining chip. Putin has a problem only 2 ways to get enough troops to push them out. Steal from his front line in Ukraine or starting a draft and mobilize even more young men. Problem is they will lack the training and many will die. His worst best option is removing troops from Ukraine to protect Russian border.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Me: Actually, it is conventional warfare, not terrorism that is taking place in the Kursk Oblast. The Russian approach means the FSB will supposedly coordinate the operation. Wonder how that will sit with the Russian army warlords.

The Russian Konstantin on the "Inside Russia" youtube channel made an interesting video about the chaos in Russia, and about the body language in a meeting with Putin, Shoigu, and the head of the FSB with Gerasimov conferenced in via video. Konstantin didn't give an exact translation but he says Gerasimov is explaining that Russian forces are stopping the invading forces and dealing with them. Then Konstantin says look at the faces of Putin and the head of the FSB who appear to be glaring at Gerasimov like they know what he is saying is complete bullsh**. See time 16:22 in this video:

Ukrainian Troops Are Pushing Further In Russia | Shock, Chaos And Fail In Russia


You folks may recall back when Ukraine's plan to irritate Putin was to hold Krynky on the east bank of the Dnipro near Kherson, and Putin apparently gave orders to Shoigu to kick Ukraine out of Krynky. Russia kept failing at numerous attempts to kick Ukraine out, but Shoigu reported to Putin that they had successfully kicked Ukraine out, which of course was a lie. Putin responded he talked to one of the commanders there who told him Ukraine was still there and not too long after that, unsurprisingly, Shoigu got demoted.

Now that Gerasimov is apparently telling Putin BS about his success in Kursk, will he meet a similar fate to Shoigu, like a demotion? Maybe Putin is not trusting his military commanders so much which is why he's involving the FSB?

But I recall Putin wasn't real happy with the FSB either in 2022 who apparently was doing the "yes men" thing and telling Putin what he wanted to hear, like Ukraine would be throwing flowers at the Russian "liberators" who invaded Ukraine, which of course is not what happened and Putin took some action against some FSB people for that. So it seems like Putin is having a hard time surrounding himself with people who will tell him the truth. Maybe the people who work for him figure the consequences will be less severe if they tell Putin what they think he wants to hear, instead of telling him the truth?

In another part of that video, Kursk residents are shown on camera crying because they are homeless, but they reveal some interesting information. Konstantin says apparently the Kursk residents were aware that Ukraine's troops were massing just outside the border so they were already alerted they might need to leave before Ukraine actually invaded. I heard another report that the FSB also knew Ukraine's troops were massing at the Kursk border, and the FSB reported this to the Russian military, but for some reason, the military took no action based on that report. Maybe one more reason for Putin to involve the FSB and not trust the military?

Lukashenko claims dozen aerial targets shot down over Belarus

"The Belarusian Air Force and Air Defence Forces were put on high alert yesterday [9 August - ed.] at 18:10. We call it readiness condition 1.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine violated all rules of conducting war and violated the airspace of the Republic of Belarus. [Targets were - ed.] very close to us in the Kastsyukovichy district in the eastern direction. Therefore, air defence forces were on full combat alert to intercept the targets. There were about a dozen of them."

www.pravda.com.ua...

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Seems to make sense to me. If I were serving under Putin in the FSB, I think I might be inclined to make Putin's objectives and outcomes look a little more rosy than they actually were because I'd know what happens to anyone who disagrees with him, or who gives him news he doesn't like...they mysteriously get 'un-alived'.

"Well, Mr. President Putin, that was a really dumb idea, and we got our asses thoroughly kicked on that one, so let's not do stupid sh!t like that again, okay?"

(ACK!!...THUD!)

a reply to: Imhere
I don't think Ukraine violated any rules. Belarus is a hostile territory to Ukraine which allowed Russian troops to launch an attack on Ukraine from the belarus Border. So Ukraine has every interest in knowing if either Belarus will again allow Russians to launch another attack from there, or some have speculated on the possibility that Putin may even ask Belarus to send their own troops into Ukraine.

Ukraine is used to having their surveillance drones shot down. Russia shoots down thousands of them every month, so I don't think it's a big deal for Ukraine, and shouldn't be a big deal for Belarus either if they are just surveillance drones. I would be more concerned if Ukraine wasn't paying attention to what's going on at the Belarus border.

In other news,

Russian Stormtroopers raised the flag of the Volga Brigade over a building after securing control of the village of Vesyoloye. Pokrovskoye direction.

Doesn't seem like kursk has affected the Russian push on the frontlines.

Shocker.

Russia has many reserves in its military and also a huge number of combat capable internal troops like MVD units and the National Guard so it was to be expected that this Kursk incursion wouldn’t affect the actual frontline.

a reply to: Imhere

Russian Stormtroopers raised the flag of the Volga Brigade over a building after securing control of the village of Vesyoloye. Pokrovskoye direction.

That supposedly happened 7 months ago.

Russia claims it captured Vesyoloye settlement in Ukraine.

www.aa.com.tr...

a reply to: Imhere

"Doesn't seem like kursk has affected the Russian push on the frontlines."


Seeing as how that was in January....

Nice try.

originally posted by: Imhere
Doesn't seem like kursk has affected the Russian push on the frontlines.

Shocker.

Russia has many reserves in its military and also a huge number of combat capable internal troops like MVD units and the National Guard so it was to be expected that this Kursk incursion wouldn’t affect the actual frontline.

Are you talking about something that happened 7 months ago? Why would the Kursk invasion in August have any effect on something that happened in January?

I've said before you are a very unreliable source of information, sometimes just making stuff up or repeating some Russian propaganda which is some made up stuff. In this case there were two real events but trying to connect the two events is the part that you're making up.

If Russia had some well trained troops somewhere, why wouldn't they use them in Ukraine? Seems like they are, and the relatively untrained conscripts in Russia like the ones who guarded the Kursk border have no battle experience. There's also the Chechen "tik-tok" batallion that was supposed to help protect the border, but we have conflicting reports about that. Some reports said the "Tik-tok" batallion saw Ukraine soldiers coming and just ran away without fighting, while the Chechen leader said no, they stayed at their posts but somehow the Ukrainians just went right by them without any fighting, or something along those lines. That doesn't really make much sense, so the "ran away" story sounds more plausible.

The Inside Russia youtube video I posted here has a segment on that Chechen batallion leader starting at time index 5:16. The Russian making the video describes it as an example of Russian "FAIL".

Ukrainian troops have advanced up to 30km inside Russia according to Russia's defence ministry.

Russia's defence ministry said on Sunday that its forces had "foiled attempts by enemy mobile groups with armoured vehicles to break through deep into Russian territory".

But in an apparent admission that Kyiv's forces have now advanced deep into the Kursk border region, the defence ministry reported engaging Ukrainian forces near the villages of Tolpino and Obshchy Kolodez - which are about 25km and 30km from the Russia-Ukraine border.

Ukrainian troops have claimed to have captured a number of settlements in the Kursk region. In Guevo, a village about 3km inside Russia, soldiers filmed themselves removing the Russian flag from an administrative building.

Clips have also emerged of Ukrainian troops seizing administrative buildings in Sverdlikovo and Poroz, while intense fighting has been reported in Sudzha - a town of about 5,000 people.
www.bbc.co.uk...

a reply to: gortex

I can't criticise Ukraine for fighting back like this.

However, two points.
It could easily strengthen Russian resolve. Support may have been relatively weak when Russia was/is the aggressor....invading Russian territory could easily boost support for Putin and his invasion.

Secondly; I have no doubt Putin will spin this as evidence of NATO's threat to Russia and of its intentions to invade Russia or break it up.

If Russians believe their own country is under threat then I suspect they will prove to be a much fiercer and committed foe than what they have been so far.