Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: twistedpuppy

Yep. "Little brother" isn't supposed to kick "Big brother" in the nuts. While the military objectives of the Kursk Oblast action may be limited, it has potential to become a political problem for Putin.

Cheers

Sounds like Russia has taken the bait. Hearing reports that Russia is pulling their reserves from Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Kupyan, Kharkiv, Belgorod, Pokrovsky, and Luhansk and moving them to Kursk.

originally posted by: Irishhaf
I am honestly curious at who is really directing this.

My take is that Ukraine's western allies provided intelligence and helped Ukraine draw up plans for the counter-offensive. There are some strategic advantages to the way the operation was conducted, cutting Russian supply roads and advancing toward an area that is geographically difficult for the Russians to provide logistics support due to the terrain, so it's not just that Russia had weak defenses in that area manned by relatively untrained constripts (apparently 300 of which have been taken prisoner by Ukraine), but the whole plan seems to be set up pretty well where there were a handful of batallions, maybe 2000 Ukraine troops at tbe border covering the rear of the batallion that invaded, and helping with supplies and logistics and following the invading batallion in to maintain supplies to the leading batallion.

So that all gives me the impression a good plan was made with assistance and intelligence from the West, and Ukraine is executing the plan.

originally posted by: twistedpuppy
Now China might start thinking about three-day blitzkrieg towards Moscow.

You're probably joking as China knows that would invide nuclear conflict and neither country really wants that, especially China since Russia's nuclear arsenal is much larger on paper, though it's unclear how many of the old Soviet nukes and rockets are functional, whereas the smaller number of Chinese nukes and rockets are more modern and thought to be fully functional.

But seriously, there has already been a serious shift in the balance of power between Russia and China apparently as a result of Putin's "special military operation" (SMO). I don't think it's coincidence that after about the first year of the SMO when Russia was looking especially weak and showing how much they really needed China's help, that Russia gave Chinese full non-military access to the port of Vladivostok after 163 years of China not having access to that port, which used to be China's port of Haishenwai before Russia took it from China. China is watching the Russia-Ukraine conflict with great interest, because they have already added their old port of Haishenwai and surrounding territory to official Chinese maps showing it as territory of China now. That was probably a smart move by Putin to give China access to the port so they won't try to take it by force, causing Putin to have to fight two wars on two fronts which he is ill-prepared to do as we see in Kursk.

Russia opening Vladivostok port to China after 163 years

I take this as a sign that the political downfall of Russia from a number 2 world power to a number three world power behind China is already happening, because this makes Russia look weak and China look stronger:

Many see this as an act of goodwill, while some believe that Russia could be turning into a vassal of China...

An interviewed academic said this further proved that the scales have tipped in favour of China being the dominant partner in China-Russia relations amid Russia's isolation due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

So while China probably realizes taking Moscow is not worth the consequences, aren't they sending some signals about their interests in other Russian territory, by putting Vladivostok etc on Chinese maps as Chinese territory shown under the old name of Haishenwai, when it used to be a Chinese port? They don't even need to take Haishenwai by force when Russia has maybe not so coincidentally given them access when they showed signs of weakness in the Ukraine conflict.

Russia has put the regions of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk in "counter-terrorism operation" due to Ukraine's Special Operation in Kursk.

It said this was done "to ensure the safety of citizens and suppress the threat of terrorist acts by enemy sabotage and reconnaissance units".

The authorities now have powers to enter private homes, restrict the movement of traffic and pedestrians, order the temporary relocation of people and monitor information sent electronically.
This comes as Moscow is struggling to contain the Ukrainian offensive.

Russia said that up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops, supported by tanks and armoured vehicles, entered the Kursk region on Tuesday morning.

The Ukrainians have since reportedly seized a number of villages, and are also threatening the regional town of Sudzha.

On Friday, a video emerged purportedly showing armed Ukrainian soldiers who claimed to have control over the town, as well as a key Russian gas facility there owned by the Gazprom company.

BBC Verify has now confirmed that the footage was indeed from the Gazprom facility on the north-western outskirts of Sudzha, about 7km from the border with Ukraine. The video alone does not verify the claim that Ukrainian troops have taken the whole town.
www.bbc.co.uk...

Sounds like Britain.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: twistedpuppy

Yep. "Little brother" isn't supposed to kick "Big brother" in the nuts. While the military objectives of the Kursk Oblast action may be limited, it has potential to become a political problem for Putin.

Putin's plan to avoid unrest from the Kursk residents who have been evacuated and without any place to live is to give them a one time payment of 10k rubles, about $115 USD though at the rate the ruble is falling now, it's getting lower.

Putin is giving cash to Russians fleeing Ukraine's surprise attack — but only $115

Something tells me $115 is not enough to solve all the problems residents have when they don't have anywhere to stay. Some of those same residents were holding up signs saying things like "Dear Putin, we supported your special military operation, please help us". I think they liked the idea of Ukrainians getting kicked out of their homes a lot more than they like getting kicked out of their own homes.

To be clear — $115 does not get you far in Russia, even accounting for lower prices there. Russia's statistics body said that, as of 2022, the average monthly salary before tax was just over 71,000 rubles, or about $800.

As of last fall, almost half of Russians said their monthly pay was not covering basics; and under a feverish wartime economy, the country's annual inflation rate hovers above 9%.

Beyond the evacuated residents only getting $115 to solve their current homelessness, the Kursk invasion makes Putin look weak, and showing weakness is a bad thing for dictators like Putin.

originally posted by: gortex
"Russia said that up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops, supported by tanks and armoured vehicles, entered the Kursk region on Tuesday morning."
www.bbc.co.uk...

Out of those up to 1000 Ukrainian troops, Russia claims up to 945 have been lost.

Russia reinforces Kursk region, videos show Ukrainian presence, evidence of attack

The (Russian defense) ministry said that in the previous 24 hours, Russian troops, air strikes and artillery had "suppressed raid attempts by enemy units deep into Russian territory in the Kursk direction".

It said that Ukraine had lost up to 945 soldiers and 102 armoured vehicles in total, while mentioning no Russian losses.

Let's see, 1000 troops invaded, 945 were lost, leaving 55 troops that one of the world's largest military powers can't seem to deal with?

In some ways, their crappy propaganda about High Ukrainian losses makes them look even worse if they can't deal with just 55 soldiers remaining. I wonder if they really thought this through.

Sounds like Britain.

It's annoying how some of the "temporary" measures put in place after 9/11 are still in place, making them seem not so temporary when that was decades ago.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

55 troops that one of the world's largest military powers can't seem to deal with?

them must be some badass MF'in Ukrainians, right up their with Force Recon, Navy Seals, Green Barret's, Delta Force.
puttin a whoppin on rooshkins .

a reply to: BernnieJGato

55 Chuck Norris' ?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

55 Chuck Norris' ?

you know i forgot chuck's Delta Force movie's. but i was talking about the U.S. 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment–Delta (1st SFOD-D), part of JSOC.

but they all wish they were as bad as Chuck.



and ol Lee is pretty TUFF to

originally posted by: twistedpuppy
a reply to: Imhere

While over looking at least 5 UA strategic points in the east currently falling .

Like by Toretsk, and long held “niu York” that just fell etc.

You're repeating yourself.

You would have a point if we were talking about a standard boxing match.

But this is the game we are discussing:

No matter how it ends, Putin already looks like a laughing stock. It's as if a boxing champion had his *** kicked by a toddler.

C'mon, cheer up. This is the biggest news since 1943. The news of the century:

Poor little Ukraine has invaded Russia!!!

Hahahahaha!!!

Now China might start thinking about three-day blitzkrieg towards Moscow.

Exhale bro.

a reply to: Imhere


Must be embarrassing for you, though?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere


Must be embarrassing for you, though?

You’re the one that scurried away when you got trounced with facts about Bandera yesterday lol

You must be that afraid of Russia if you’re supporting Azov/Nazi SS Stepan Bandera LARPers lmao

Seeing everyone agrees the east is indeed collapsing, your last ditch effort is focused on some desperate incursion because that’s where the media (BBC) is directing you lol

a reply to: Imhere

Get a grip mate, Russia should have ended this in no more than 6 months.

But piss poor leadership, logistics, and training have bitten them.

The only way russia makes gains is grinding win via numbers attacks.

Even when this eventually ends, russia will declare victory and will probably get to keep some land and still lose everywhere it counts.

a reply to: Imhere

Leave it out. BBC? It's all being reported all over the World.

Now, then, I thought I'd made it crystal clear that I am thoroughly bored with your extreme obsessing about Bandera.

"Scurried away"? "Trounced"?

Pfft.

No. Just BORED with your constant repetition.

I'm more interested in the here and now.

a reply to: Irishhaf

It's WW1 trench warfare and throwing men at the enemy in waves.

It seems Russia can't do mobile warfare.

Logistics seem to be a big problem for them.

originally posted by: Irishhaf
a reply to: Imhere

Get a grip mate, Russia should have ended this in no more than 6 months.

But piss poor leadership, logistics, and training have bitten them.

The only way russia makes gains is grinding win via numbers attacks.

Even when this eventually ends, russia will declare victory and will probably get to keep some land and still lose everywhere it counts.

Well Russia already secured one of it’s goals 2 years ago.

Ukraine shut down the canal in 2014 soon after Russia annexed Crimea. Russia restored the flow of water in March 2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A 2015 study found that the canal had been providing 85% of Crimea's water prior to the 2014 shutdown.

en.wikipedia.org...

On top of that we all saw Russia does adapt. It built a pretty crazy defensive line where it stopped the fabled and hyped UA’s “summer offensive” last year hoping to cut the land bridge to Crimea etc

I wonder if it's the right time for Lukashenko to rush and help Putin. Belarus supposedly spotted and shot down some Ukrainian drones over its territory. Now it's concentrating troops and missiles near the Ukrainian border. It's not certain whether these are only empty threats of escalation or Belarus is actually going to join the war. It doesn't seem to be in Lukashenko's interests but could the situation in Kursk Oblast change his perspective?

Belarus moves troops and missiles to the Ukrainian border.

Eastern Europe expert Alexander Friedman sees the current military activities in Belarus as a response to Ukraine's advance in the Russian region of Kursk. The fighting there has been going on for five days, with Ukraine capturing several settlements. "If the events in the Kursk region continue to develop negatively for the Russian Federation, it could lead to a critical situation in which the Kremlin decides to throw the Belarusian army into the oven of its war. And Lukashenko is aware of this," the historian from the University of Düsseldorf wrote on Telegram.

a reply to: BernnieJGato

"Ol' Lee", IIRC, was a Marine in World War II. Being a tough SOB was probably second nature for him after that experience.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

There are no "acts of goodwill" between sovereign nations. Everything is calculated on the basis of who calls the shots.

Cheers

small incursion near belgorod today as well.

*shrugs* smart move, russia has no mobile capabilities keep them moving and stop attacking fixed defenses.