Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

30 July Update

Russian forces conducted five platoon- to battalion-sized mechanized assaults in western Donetsk Oblast on July 29 and 30. Such localized mechanized pushes are likely the manifestation of Russia's forecasted summer offensive—Russian forces likely lack the wider operational capacity to mount a separate renewed offensive operation in Donetsk Oblast or elsewhere on the front this summer.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in Vozy, Kursk Oblast on the night of July 29 to 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and other Ukrainian forces struck the oil depot in Vozy causing a fire and noted that the Ukrainian forces are still confirming the damage to the oil depot.

Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar and southwest of Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

31 July Update

Ukrainian forces struck a weapons and equipment warehouse in Kursk City on the night of July 30 to 31.

Armenian and Russian sources reported on July 31 that Russian border guards left Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan, Armenia. Armenian authorities requested in March 2024 that Russia remove its border guards from the airport by August 1 because Armenia can conduct its own border control without the help of Russian border guards who had been stationed at the airport since 1992.

Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Torestsk, and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

1 August Update

Russian forces continue to make slow, steady advances in the Pokrovsk direction (west of Avdiivka), largely enabled by Ukrainian manpower shortages and the terrain in the area immediately northwest of Avdiivka.

Western media reported on July 31 that the first batch of F-16s recently arrived in Ukraine and that Ukraine will receive more jets soon at an unspecified time.

Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
"Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, and Donetsk City."

Cheers

Almost every day we see something like that from ISW, Russian forces advanced, Russian forces advanced, Russian forces advanced. If someone was just following the dialog and not looking at the maps, they might think Russia must be halfway to Kyiv by now after all those advances every day.

So I decided to compare the Deep State map for Ukraine from August 1 2024 with the map one year prior on August 1 2023. If I zoom in I can see some progress, but looking at all of Ukraine, this is what it looks like, it's hard to see the advances. One notable difference in the more recent map is the battle symbol(s) at Kharkiv in the north, not present on the year-old map, since Russia was already kicked out of Kharkiv a year ago. Ukraine is trying to kick Russia out of Kharkiv again.


Source: Both images from Deep State Map

"Western media reported on July 31 that the first batch of F-16s recently arrived in Ukraine"
It will be interesting to see how effective those are. Ukraine needs some kind of defense against the aviation gliding bombs that can be huge and even if not accurate devastate such a large area that they may eliminate their target even if it doesn't hit it exactly. I don't know if the F-16s can shoot down some of the Russian planes dropping the bombs; I heard one source that thinks they might, see below. But it would be safer for the West to give permission to strike Russian airfields inside Russia with ATACMS, potentially destroying planes on the ground without even putting F-16s at risk.

How Ukraine Can Defeat Russian Glide Bombs

Incoming Western equipment could offer a second way to neutralize glide bombs. Ukraine may soon acquire European F-16 fighters and two Swedish airborne early warning and control, or AEW&C, aircraft. Pairing them would create a new capability, especially if the United States provided long-range (or 20-plus-mile) Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles. They could strike many aircraft before bombs were launched. Radar-guided AMRAAMs have a range longer than glide bombs.

2 August Update

Russian authorities arrested the former deputy rear commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) Colonel Dmitry Peshkov on August 2. Russian state newswire TASS reported on August 2 that Russian law enforcement arrested and charged Peshkov for the embezzlement of food rations for Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, to which he pleaded not guilty.

Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yeah, the in-depth commentary at the URL has to be consulted to get an accurate picture of how tactical the Russian advances have been. Nothing with operational importance to date. If Ukraine's forces weren't in shape for a grand offensive this summer, then neither were Russia's. As I said before, most of the war now is trenches and robotic weapon strikes.

Ukraine will have to carefully employ the F-16s or risk not getting further advanced gear from the West. While losses of equipment are part of warfare, it doesn't impress donors when the equipment is poorly employed. Only opinion, but the Ukrainians may have surprised some in the West with the way they employed western tanks last year. I suspect some of the vehicle losses could have been avoided with better employment.

Cheers

3 August Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet's (BSF) Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea on August 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 3 that the strikes significantly damaged four Russian S-400 missile launchers in unspecified areas in occupied Crimea. . . . Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a Russian S-400 and S-500 air defense system that the Russian military had deployed to protect the Kerch Strait Bridge. ISW has not yet observed visual evidence of Ukrainian forces striking Russian air defense systems in occupied Crimea on August 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian strike sank the Rostov-on-Don at the Sevastopol port.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) struck the Morozovsk Airfield and nearby ammunition and glide bomb storage facilities with an unspecified number of drones . . .

Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, and Chasiv Yar.

4 August Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on August 4. Russian opposition outlet Astra published footage and reported on August 4 that Ukrainian drones struck an oil depot in Azov, Rostov Oblast.

Ukraine confirmed that it has received the first batch of US-made F-16 fighter jets.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances east of Pokrovsk, west of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

More at URLs above.

Cheers

5 August Update

Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD's Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5.

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), citing satellite imagery, reported that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed an Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast on August 3.

Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk and Pokrovsk and near Donetsk City and Robotyne.

More at URL above.

Cheers

6 August Update

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of cross border raids into Kursk Oblast on August 6.

Armenian and Russian sources stated on August 6 that Armenia will not participate in the upcoming CSTO exercises in Novosibirsk, Russia in mid-August 2024. Armenia has de-facto frozen its CSTO membership by not participating in high-level meetings, military exercises, and other CSTO activities since mid-to-late March 2023.

Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Ukrainian forces invading the Kursk region of Russia with jets and troops .

Dramatic footage shows Ukrainian forces invading the Kursk region of Russia, as Ukraine’s fighter jets fly overhead.

Russia scrambled to deploy troops and firepower reinforcements to the area amid paranoia that Ukraine may seize a key nuclear power plant.

Vladimir Putin’s army and security agencies were wrong footed by a Tuesday breakthrough on a frontier guarded by lightly armed conscripts.

a reply to: gortex

They are invading RUSSIA?!!!

PS. More here:

BBC News - Putin accuses Ukraine of 'provocation' amid alleged border incursion
www.bbc.com...

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: gortex

They are invading RUSSIA?!!!

PS. More here:

BBC News - Putin accuses Ukraine of 'provocation' amid alleged border incursion
www.bbc.com...

Pro-Ukrainian Russian Troops In U.S.-Made Stryker Vehicles Just Launched A Pointless Invasion Of Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defenses Crumble For A Want Of Manpower.
www.forbes.com... -meanwhile-ukrainian-defenses-crumble-for-a-want-of-manpower/

“It’s all very dramatic—and also a shameful waste of precious military resources. At the same time, the Liberty of Russia Legion was mucking around in Sudzha, a town with practically no military value, and over-stretched Ukrainian brigades were retreating from Niu-York, a former Ukrainian stronghold just west of Horlivka in eastern Ukraine.”

The only war Ukraine seems to be fighting well is the propaganda war.
Short lived and hollow “victory”.

a reply to: Vermilion

I wasn't actually commenting on this, just posted for info.

a reply to: Vermilion
That's the opinion of a Forbes staff writer. When he becomes a general he can make decisions as he sees fit.

Since Putin has a reputation for relying so much on propaganda, I wouldn't be as quick to dismiss the value of propaganda as that Forbes writer, even if it's Ukraine's propaganda.

It's perhaps too early to get the full context of the story, but Konstantin from the Inside Russia youtube channel at first thought this was just another Russian partisan invasion into Russia, which is how that Forbes writer frames it, but Konstantin has come to believe that this time is different from the past partisan incursions. He also shows videos of Putin re-arranging his scheduled meeting agenda to put the Kursk invasion as the first item of discussion, and Putin doesn't look as comfortable and confident as he usually does, he looks nervous to me. The first meeting clip starts at about 14 minutes:

Ukrainian Troops Are 10 Miles Deep In Russia And Moving Forward | This is BREAKING NEWS!

Also the title suggests that it's perhaps not just Russian partisan troops invading Russia, but possibly Ukraine troops as well, but I don't think we know the full facts on that yet.

As I've said before, Ukraine isn't going to win the war by pushing Russian troops back to the Russian border, rather they are looking for a regime change in the Kremlin as that is probably the only way Russian troops are going to be withdrawn back to the previous Russian borders. From that perspective, diverting resources from a war you can't win to war you possibly can win, of making Putin look weak, making it look more like a war instead of a "special military operation", and making the Russians take notice has value for Ukraine's purposes. Does it have more value than holding on to the town of Niu York? I suppose time will tell, but remember it's not just Ukraine diverting resources to Kursk. Russia will also have to divert resources to deal with the situation in Kursk.

Bill Browder knows a lot about Putin and he seems to think Ukraine has a pretty good strategy to invade Kursk and humiliate Putin by making him look weak:

Putin ‘humiliated’ by Ukrainian incursion into Russia | Bill Browder

Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region of Russia could become “even more humiliating for Putin” if Ukrainian troops can continue to hold the territory, Bill Browder tells Frontline on #TimesRadio.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I've thought a good option for Ukraine to draw Russian troops out of their territory is to permanently occupy bordering parts of Russia. That will shift Putin's priorities, and, make him look less omnipotent to the Russian people. Take the war to Russia and make the Kremlin dance to Kyiv's tune.

Cheers

7 August Update

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border. The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold. A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements ...

Ukrainian forces reportedly used a first-person view (FPV) drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast ...

Ukrainian forces recently regained positions south of Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces advanced northeast of Siversk, southwest of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

As I've said before, Ukraine isn't going to win the war by pushing Russian troops back to the Russian border, rather they are looking for a regime change in the Kremlin as that is probably the only way Russian troops are going to be withdrawn back to the previous Russian borders. From that perspective, diverting resources from a war you can't win to war you possibly can win, of making Putin look weak, making it look more like a war instead of a "special military operation", and making the Russians take notice has value for Ukraine's purposes. Does it have more value than holding on to the town of Niu York? I suppose time will tell, but remember it's not just Ukraine diverting resources to Kursk. Russia will also have to divert resources to deal with the situation in Kursk.

And this is I think the real reason for this operation; diverting the Russian resources. Perhaps, they are counting on Russia moving some of their troops out of Donbas. If I were them, I wouldn't count on the regime change. The Russian dissidents are either dead or in prison or in exile. The oligarchs unfriendly to Putin have had already their spines broken.

I'm still not sure if it's an act of desperation or there's some strategic aim behind it all. Time will tell. I also wonder if the US knew about this attack and approved it or not because I would look at the official statements with a grain of salt.

There are a lot of things we don't know but this news has made my day. It just makes me laugh. Little Ukraine has poked the big Russian bear in the butt. But the best of all was Zakharova's meltdown:

All these bloody crimes are taking place against a background of cynical silence on the part of the West, which continues to cover up for its puppets in Kiev. All this only strengthens the feeling of impunity of the Ukrainian neo-Nazis, who are confident that they can get away with any atrocity. We call on the international community not to stand aside and resolutely denounce the criminal actions committed by the Kiev regime.

FM spokeswoman comment on the Ukraine crisis

Will that woman have any reason to stay sober now?

Listening to independent people on social media opine about this it certainly can be confusing, but one thing for sure those F-16s may be the game changer.

We are now in a new phase of development for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We have done a lot to transition the Ukrainian Air Force to a new aviation standard – Western combat aviation. From the beginning of this war, we have been talking with our partners about…

ca.news.yahoo.com...

originally posted by: twistedpuppy
If I were them, I wouldn't count on the regime change. The Russian dissidents are either dead or in prison or in exile. The oligarchs unfriendly to Putin have had already their spines broken.

Yeah the notion that Putin is gonna be deposed is a pipe dream. When the war started, there were "experts" predicting he'd be gone in a few months. Then it was by the end of the year. Then the end of the next year.

Prigozhin, by most accounts, was the deadliest bullet in that gun, and when he made his move it was barely a whimper. There were "experts" giddy on cable news about how this was it, Putin was done. Biggest foot in mouth moment I've seen in years.

If anything Putin has consolidated his hold on power. The West's token sanctions were also carefully crafted to avoid really hitting him much, which no one ever wants to talk about and ask why?

ETA: Now, of course, the revisionists act like Prigozhin was never a threat to Putin and him failing doesn't mean anything. That's definitely not what was said at the time.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Putin has stripped much of Russia for manpower to fight (and die) in Ukraine This has given Ukraine an opening to launch
raids on Russian territory One objective might the Kursk Nuclear Plant, The male guard force has all been withdrawn and sent to Ukraine and all female force replacing them The plant is 35 miles from the border, which might be a stretch, but enough to get Putin attention

One thing will like to see would be commando style raids in the vein of WW II British commandos - "Butcher and Bolt" as named by Churchill For example raid on Russian Northern Fleet base near Murmansk