Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

23 February Update

Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft on the night of February 23 – the second such aircraft shot down in 2024.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia “essentially” froze its participation in the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.

Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, and Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: gortex

This is hilarious , a slimmed down Kadyrov films himself mingling with Russian troops while saying in Chechen as he puts his arm around them "This one will be killed. This one will be killed also , this one will also be killed , although one lucky chap won't be killed in his estimation.

From 0.32 on the video.


With friends like that ....

originally posted by: gortex
Ukraine have claimed the downing of another Russian A-50 spy plane between the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar.

I like your phrasing there, "claimed", because who actually shot it down is unclear. Ukraine did make that claim, but this video says Russia claimed they shot down their own plane, and I don't know which story to believe, maybe it's best to be skeptical of all of them. Even if you believe Ukraine's claim they did it, then the question is, with what? The latest A-50 was outside the range of the Patriot system presumed to have downed the other aircraft recently.

Russia 'accidentally shoots down own spy plane'


Denys Davydov said Russia went so far as to arrest the Russian crew of the missile system that allegedly shot down the very expensive plane, though that could still be part of a propaganda effort to take the credit away from Ukraine, but I really can't tell who shot down the plane.

Update from Ukraine | No more steel for the Ruzzian tanks | Ukraine trapped Z - Army in Robotine


Whichever side did it, it's good news either way.

Denys also shows video of the largest Russian steel plant on fire after being attacked by some drones, which he hopes will negatively impact Russian tank production by temporarily interrupting their production of steel.

Reporting From Ukraine youtube channel examines the various theories circulating about how the A-50 was shot down, which is very interesting:

23 Feb: WHAT A DAY! Ukrainians UNLEASH NEW ERA ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILES WITH 250 KM RANGE

He also mentions other Russian claims of friendly fire incidents and there are so many that they either have a huge friendly fire problem, or else some of the claims are not credible. Russia has lost a lot of other aircraft recently too.

We passed the 2 year milestone since the main Russian invasion in February 2022.

originally posted by: gortex
This is hilarious , a slimmed down Kadyrov films himself mingling with Russian troops while saying in Chechen as he puts his arm around them "This one will be killed. This one will be killed also , this one will also be killed ...

The Russians don't seem to react negatively, maybe they don't understand what Kadyrov is saying?

Under a Chechnyan leader other than Kadyrov, they might just kill the Russians themselves, instead of predicting Ukraine will do it.

a reply to: Arbitrageur


The Russian A-50 spy plane was shot down with S-200M “Vega-M” upgraded version of the S-200B. Solid fuel boosters are used, the max range is increased to 240 km (with an AWACS aircraft - up to 255 km), ceiling - 0.3 - 40 km.

Source : Trent Telenko X

24 February Update

Russian opposition media estimated that upwards of 75,000 Russian personnel have died in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that sources stated that the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) organized a drone strike on the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Lipetsk and that damage will stop production at the plant for a long time.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 24.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Ukraine claims they have missile with 700km range

Ukraine has a missile that can hit targets 700 kilometers away – Kamyshin on strikes in Russia’s depth

700 km is enough to reach to other black sea military ports, not located in Crimea ...

The elections in Russia are near , there may come surprices soon ...

700km is enough even to Moscow

a reply to: Kenzo

At this rate of escalation, Russia will have to do a first strike with nuclear weapons, as twenty percent of their steel-making capacity has been taken out in the last twenty-four hours,. each attack on Russia will have a considered counterattack. Since Ukraine is just a proxy adversary. At some stage, they will have to hit NATO countries as a protective measure. At the present rate of escalation, something nasty will have to happen soon.

a reply to: annonentity

At the present rate of escalation, something nasty will have to happen soon.

The invasion of a non-threatening neighbour that has resulted in thousands upon thousands of senseless deaths isn't 'nasty' enough for you?

Are you suggesting that Ukraine should not be fighting back by attacking targets within Russia that are fuelling their war effort against Ukraine?
How much of Ukraine's manufacturing capabilities have been destroyed by Russia during their invasion?

Russia will have to do a first strike with nuclear weapons....

Are you suggesting that its understandable and even acceptable if Russia conducts first strike nuclear attacks?

a reply to: Freeborn

Nope just saying that at the present rate of escalation will have inevitable consequences that will dramatically affect your life and everyone else's as well. If you're happy with that so be it.

a reply to: annonentity
If Russia didn't want their steel factory attacked, all they had to do was keep their army inside Russia.
If a nuclear holocaust starts, it's ultimately because Russia got aggressive, I can't fault Ukraine for fighting back.

Regarding the so-called "proxy war" and involvement of NATO, Ukraine recently said it will only use NATO-supplied arms to attack territories that were part of Ukraine in 2013 or something to that effect, so they won't use those to attack steel plants or anyting else inside Russia according to current policy.

Ukraine however has no qualms about using weapons made in Ukraine to attack targets inside Russia, like the steel factory.
Ukraine has attacked a lot of oil facilities inside Russia in recent months, since they know oil provides a big source of revenue for Russia which it uses to fund their war, and oil sanctions have only been partially successful in reducing that source of funding.

originally posted by: annonentity
a reply to: Freeborn

Nope just saying that at the present rate of escalation will have inevitable consequences that will dramatically affect your life and everyone else's as well. If you're happy with that so be it.

What a ridiculous thing to say, "if you're happy with it", nobody is happy with Putin's aggression against Ukraine. Even Putin, who started the whole thing, doesn't seem too happy that Ukraine didn't throw him flowers when he invaded 2 years ago, in fact this former Russian oligarch says Putin was nearly insane with rage when that didn't happen, and Ukraine actually fought back. He also explains why it's a very bad idea to back down against Putin's aggression, because he will take that as a sign of encouragement to conquer more territory. Being formerly the richest oligarch in Russia, it's far to say his knowledge of Putin is likely better than most people's.

Ex-Russian oligarch says one moment in war drove Putin ‘insane’

"If you don't show (Putin) force, he takes advantage of you."

Is what the former oligarch says, and that people who suggest backing down don't understand Putin, as that is likely to make him even more aggressive.

a reply to: Arbitrageur
As i have said many times and will continue to say...Global powers are fools for not killing Putin.

Letting a murderer continue to murder makes you an accessory.
😳

originally posted by: WeMustCare
a reply to: Arbitrageur
As i have said many times and will continue to say...Global powers are fools for not killing Putin.

Letting a murderer continue to murder makes you an accessory.
😳

That's not an easy thing to do. He had closed himself off and hiding. He avoids any physical contact and constantly surrounded by his private detail. Short of nuking the Kremlin which would be ill advised there is no way to get to him.

Put it this way you don't think Ukraine hasn't thought of it? Not to mention he has at least one double so you would have to make sure to get the right one. I'm about 80 percent convinced there is a body double for putin after watching some videos. And he used to speak German but now apparently needs a translator. Very odd to me since it was known he could speak perfect German. But I won't go into that here.

25 February Update

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Krynky amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 25.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Ukraine-Russia war: Nato and EU members ‘considering sending troops to Ukraine’

Several Nato and EU states are considering sending soldiers to Ukraine on a bilateral basis, Slovakia’s prime minister claimed ahead of a meeting of European leaders in Paris.

Source

Slovakia has committed to not send troops to Ukraine, but other NATO members are considering it to send a message to Putin.

Will that message provoke Putin to escalate or encourage him to back down? My money is on Provoking...

a reply to: Bishop2199

It depends on what those soldiers would do there. In a training capacity away from the front lines, and in small numbers, it wouldn't mean much.

Cheers

originally posted by: Bishop2199
Ukraine-Russia war: Nato and EU members ‘considering sending troops to Ukraine’

Several Nato and EU states are considering sending soldiers to Ukraine on a bilateral basis, Slovakia’s prime minister claimed ahead of a meeting of European leaders in Paris.

Source

Slovakia has committed to not send troops to Ukraine, but other NATO members are considering it to send a message to Putin.

Will that message provoke Putin to escalate or encourage him to back down? My money is on Provoking...

That will fit right into Putin's propaganda campaign. Once he failed to take Kyiv in 3 days like he planned, he had to come up with some face-saving reason why powerful Russia couldn't overpower its much smaller neighbor, so he started brainwashing the population to think they were fighting NATO. You can hear the ordinary Russian babushka I posted earlier talking about how she is willing to suffer in a terrible Russian war economy because she's afraid of NATO and Russia has to protect themselves against NATO. So Putin's brainwashing obviously worked, she has no clue that NATO was never threatening her.

She probably has no idea Putin said the following right before he got elected:

Russia could have joined NATO. But why didn't they do it?

“Russia is part of European culture. And I cannot imagine my own country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the civilised world. So it is hard for me to visualise NATO as an enemy,” said Putin, the country’s acting president in 2000, three weeks before the election, which made him president.
...
Many high-ranking American officials, including the former US Secretary of State, James Baker, a powerful establishment figure in Washington, openly supported Russian membership of NATO, seeing it as a win-win situation for both sides. There is also critical evidence of NATO’s seriousness about Russian membership of the alliance.
...
“In 1992, Russia and the former USSR countries were offered the opportunity to join NATO's ‘Partnership for Peace’ (PFP), and they all joined, including Russia. We hoped it would be an entry point into NATO and several PFP members joined. Russia even sent a brigade to serve under NATO in Bosnia in 1995. Things looked good in those days,” Erickson tells TRT World.

a reply to: dragonridr
Even the Russian Oligarchs thought of it. They supported Putin before, because he was good for business, and helped make them richer. But now the Oligarchs are getting their yachts and assets seized, all because of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, so why would they want to continue to support him?

The Russian oligarch Alex Konanykhin put a million dollar bounty on Putin's head.
But apparently it's not so easy to collect that million.

The man who put a $1 million bounty on Putin

“I did it because I want to contribute to the change of perception of Putin from an unquestionable ruler to somebody who is perceived by Russians as a criminal, and an illegitimate president who is essentially a usurper of power,” Alex Konanykhin, CEO of software company TransparentBusiness, told Fortune.

Russian oligarch puts million-dollar bounty on Vladimir Putin's head | 60 Minutes Australia

26 February Update

Sweden will join NATO following Hungary’s formal approval of Sweden’s accession bid on February 26.

Over 20 heads of state, including 15 European Union (EU) leaders met in Paris on February 26 to discuss ramping up ammunition supplies to Ukraine.

Germany announced a new military aid package to Ukraine on February 26. The new military aid package includes 14,000 155mm artillery shells, 10 Vector recon drones, four WISENT-1 mine-clearing machines, and other equipment.

Russian forces recently made confirmed gains near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
26 February Update

"Germany announced a new military aid package to Ukraine on February 26. The new military aid package includes 14,000 155mm artillery shells, 10 Vector recon drones, four WISENT-1 mine-clearing machines, and other equipment."

wow!
14,000 shells sent to Ukraine by Ukraine's ally? Isn't that about the amount Russia uses in one day? At one point, Russia reportedly used 20,000 shells a day against Ukraine, but the usage rate has fallen since then.

Meanwhile Russia's ally North Korea is sending millions of artillery shells to Russia, though the shells have some quality problems. North Korean and Russian artillery shell factories apparently can way out-produce western artillery shell factories.

North Korea has sent 6,700 containers of munitions to Russia, South Korea says

North Korea has shipped about 6,700 containers carrying millions of munitions to Russia since July to support its war against Ukraine, in a sign of ongoing arms transfers, South Korean media reported on Tuesday, citing the defence minister.

At a briefing on Monday for local media, Minister Shin Won-sik said the containers might carry more than 3 million 152 mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122 mm rounds.

"It could possibly be a mix of the two, and you can say that at least several million shells have been sent," Shin said, according to the Yonhap news agency.

Hundreds of North Korean munitions factories are running at around 30% of their capacity due to a lack of raw materials and electricity, but those producing artillery shells for Russia were operating "at full swing," he added, without elaborating on the source of the information.

Since Russia is getting millions of shells from its allies, and Ukraine is only getting 14,000 shells from its ally, it's not hard to understand how Russia is able to make some small advances lately. The EU promised Ukraine a million shells, but only delivered 300,000. I guess another 14,000 will make it 314,000?

An unpleasant side effect of this is that in exchange for all those shells supplied by N Korea, Russia is likely transferring technology to N Korea that is unlikely to make the world a better place.

"It is unclear how much Russia will give, but the more dependent Russia gets on North Korean artillery shells, the greater the degree of Russian technology transfers will be," he said, according to Yonhap.