Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Freeborn

There seems to be some confusion as to what you meant by this.
I took it as you saying three times as many Russians have died in this war as there are currently British troops enlisted in our Armed Forces?

That's exactly what I meant hence mentioning the 454 we lost in Afghanistan, I haven't looked at the statistics of who's died since but I'd put money on it being 3x that at least.

That's not the case in Ukraine.
Russia is the invader, invading a non-threatening neighbour - a neighbour that many Russians still have close ties to.
They are poorly trained, poorly armed and supplied and poorly motivated.
In this instance its the Ukrainians who are fighting for their very existence.

Practically family, like us going to war with Scotland after they leave the union. I could say almost like a civil war but I wouldn't wish my words to be misconstrued as spoken by a Putin supporter and Russian apologist. Frankly I think he's a madman who clearly doesn't give a damn about human life, the only thing he fears is being lynched like Gaddafi which doesn't bode well for his allies or enemies.

20 February Update

Russian forces made a confirmed advance west of Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.

Cheers

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Imhere

What has any of that got to do with Russia threatening to nuke London, Washington and Berlin?

As for Ukraine not recognising Kosovo?
That's up to them - they are an independent country and have their own foreign policies, nothing to do with us....or Russia.

My mistake. You posted twice in a row. It was meant to your first reply to Ray.

My point was, NATO stripping centuries old sovereign land from Serbia and putting a base in Kosovo by a NATO backed by Clinton/Biden/Blair was seen and noted by many others. And not just Putin.

A lot of other people and Slavs know that was BS.

And 99’/early 2000’s wasn’t that long ago.

Barely 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can still defeat Russia, finds poll.......................

"Most Europeans “are desperate to prevent a Russian victory” but do not believe Kyiv can win militarily, Leonard said, meaning that the most convincing argument for an increasingly sceptical public was that continuing aid “could lead to a sustainable, negotiated peace that favours Kyiv – rather than a victory for Putin”.

The January polling in 12 EU member states – including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Sweden – found that Ukraine’s stalled counteroffensive, growing fears of a US policy shift and the prospect of a second US presidential term for Donald Trump were fuelling pessimism about the war’s outcome.


It was carried out before Ukraine’s retreat at the weekend from the eastern town of Avdiivka, which handed Russia its most significant military victory since the capture of Bakhmut by Wagner troops in May 2023. Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022." www.theguardian.com...

Ukraine outnumbered, outgunned, ground down by relentless Russia...................

"KRAMATORSK, Ukraine, Feb 21 (Reuters) - As the Ukraine war enters its third year, the infantry of 59th Brigade are confronting a bleak reality: they're running out of soldiers and ammunition to resist their Russian invaders.
One platoon commander who goes by his call sign "Tygr" estimated that just 60-70% of the several thousand men in the brigade at the start of the conflict were still serving. The rest had been killed, wounded or signed off for reasons such as old age or illness."

"Heavy casualties at the hands of Russian forces have been compounded by dreadful conditions on the eastern front, with frozen soil turning into thick mud in unseasonably warm temperatures, playing havoc with soldiers' health.
"The weather is rain, snow, rain, snow. People get ill with simple flu or angina as a result. They're out of action for some time, and there is nobody to replace them," said a company commander in the brigade with the call sign "Limuzyn". "The most immediate problem in every unit is lack of people."

"Another commander in the 59th Brigade, who only gave his first name Hryhoriy, described relentless attacks from groups of five to seven Russian soldiers who would push forward up to 10 times a day in what he called "meat assaults" - highly costly to the Russians but also a major threat to his troops.
"When one or two defensive positions are fighting off these assaults all day, the guys get tired," Hryhoriy said as he and his exhausted men were afforded a brief rotation away from the frontlines near the Russian-occupied eastern city of Donetsk.
"Weapons break, and if there is no possibility of bringing them more ammunition or changing their weapons, then you understand what this leads to." www.reuters.com...

Ukrainian steel giant Metinvest's CEO warns Russian advance "alarming"........................................

" The head of Ukraine's steel giant Metinvest has called Russia's advance in eastern Ukraine, where its has some of its biggest operations, "alarming" and urged the United States to urgently approve a stalled military aid package.
Russia's capture of Avdiivka saw it claim full control of Metinvest's vast Soviet-era coking coal plant on Monday, marking the loss of another of the company's facilities after the Azovstal steel plant that became a symbol of Ukrainian resistance in the early days of the war."

"The frontline now lies within 40 kilometres (24.85 miles) of Pokrovsk, where Metinvest runs Ukraine's largest coal mine, and its biggest steel plant in Zaporizhzhia further to the south.
"The (Russian) advances we have seen in the last week are quite alarming," Yuriy Ryzhenkov, Metinvest's chief executive, told Reuters on Monday in the firm's first reaction to Avdiivka's fall.
Asked whether Metinvest was now preparing for Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia to come under attack, he said the huge scale of the infrastructure meant little could be done other than basic evacuation plans."

"The iron and steel sector employed around 600,000 people and contributed around 10% of Ukraine's GDP before the war.
That plunged in 2022 as Russia captured key ports but the reopening of some sea routes over the last six months has driven a rebound.
"The capacity utilisation of the ports...is pretty close to pre-invasion levels now," Ryzhenkov said, adding that Metinvest's iron ore plants would hopefully recover to 75% of capacity this year and steel plants to about 65%.
However, an estimated 9,000-10,000 workers are already conscripted to the army and a plan to increase conscription numbers is working its way through parliament.
"We (already) don't have enough people to operate at full capacity," Ryzhenkov said. "We are hiring people, we are training them and then they are getting drafted before they even start working." www.reuters.com...

21 February Update

Prominent independent Russian milblogger Andrei Morozov reportedly committed suicide on February 21 after refusing the Russian military command’s orders to delete his reports about high Russian casualty rates around Avdiivka.

Ukrainian forces struck the Trudivske Training Ground east of Volnovakha on February 20, where at least three companies of the Russian 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (29th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) had been training.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka, Donetsk City, Robotyne, and Krynky.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Redacted.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
21 February Update

"Prominent independent Russian milblogger Andrei Morozov reportedly committed suicide on February 21 after refusing the Russian military command’s orders to delete his reports about high Russian casualty rates around Avdiivka."

This shows how bad conditions are in Russia. He seemed to be patriotic to Russia, and was just trying to report the truth about how Pyrrhic the victory was when Russia took Avdiivka. He reported high losses for Russia, which if anything were probably understated, and this truth was not allowed in Russia.

It takes a special dedication to the truth to kill yourself rather than comply with orders from the state to remove the truth.

Another interesting story in the information war:

Putin got Avdiivka before his upcoming election, but now he apparently would also like two other objectives before his election, as suggested by recent Russian actions:

1. Putin wants Ukraine's bridgehead in Krynky on the east bank of the Dnipro river gone. According to the video below, Shoigu reported to Putin that not only did Russia capture Avdiivka, but Russia captured Krynky also. Putin said he personally talked to the commander near Krynky who told him some Ukrainians were still in Krynky, so apparently Shoigu got caught trying to mislead Putin. The video shows a couple of Russians Running to the edge of Krynky, planting a Russian flag to support a claim they captured Krynky, then running away as fast as they could.

Ukraine wated until Russia published that propaganda about capturing Krynky, then posted their own geolocated footage showing they were still in Krynky, obviously falsifying Shoigu's report it was taken by Russia. So then Russia felt like they had to attack Krynky to make the false report true, but Russia had heavy losses and so far has not been successful.

2. It looks like Putin also wants Russia to take back Robotyne and probably as much of the salient that Ukraine took during its summer 2023 offensive as possible. So far Ukraine has held on to Robotyne but the Russians are concentrating a lot of troops in that region.

21 Feb: UNBELIEVABLE: Russian General SET UP ALL HIS TROOPS FOR A HIMARS STRIKE | War in Ukraine

Russian sources reported that the flag mission was ordered by the commander of the Russian eight hundred tenth marine brigade, who wanted to capitalize on the positive news of the capture of Avdiivka, and his plan was successful because by declaring the victory at the right time, he promptly got the rank of a general.

Once the Ukrainian marines, who are actually located in Krynky now, saw the claims of the Russian Defense Minister, they started releasing videos from the settlement. These videos came as a hard hit in the Russian information space and tarnished the reputation of the Russian Defense Minister, who was called out on lying in the eyes of the President.

Question: What will happen to the Russian who just got promoted to general based on his fake news about capturing Krynky, resulting in Shoigu passing the lie to Putin?

He tried to make the lie a truth by more attempts to capture Krynky, but not only were those unsuccessful, but Ukraine claims to have used HIMARS to destroy a russian HQ in the area and also a concentration of Russians who were apparently told to wait outside for the arrival of their commander. Those forces were attacked with cluster munitions and the commander didn't show up, but they sent some soldiers in to clean up all the corpses and they were also attacked, resulting in even more corpses.

22 February Update

Ukrainian forces conducted another successful strike against a Russian training ground in occupied Kherson Oblast on February 21 and likely inflicted significant casualties. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk reported on February 22 that a Ukrainian strike killed nearly 60 Russian servicemen at a Russian training ground in occupied Podo-Kalynivka, Kherson Oblast.

The Danish Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced a new military aid package for Ukraine on February 22 valued at 1.7 billion Danish kroner ($228 million). This package includes 15,000 155mm shells jointly produced with the Czech Republic, air defense materiel and ammunition, mine clearance equipment, drones, radar, and communication equipment.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

I've done the rational thing of disengaging with the MSM narrative on this war and instead only paying attention to news of areas being "taken" or "advancement"

When you take this news rather than the twisted narratives to try and justify sensationalist headlines, you quickly realise that Russia are the ones making advances and Ukraine appear to be struggling to repel them.

The outcome of this is inevitable - Ukraine will have to cede land to Russia. Why continue the bloodshed instead of seeking mediation through China?

I think the US is concerned about the war ending as it will finally allow people to see how many hundreds of billions of dollars they wasted to achieve - nothing.

Just the same as Iraq.
Just the same as Afghanistan.
Just the same as Vietnam.

The US economy will inevitably crash so there needs to be another reason conjured up, it will most likely be illegal immigration that gets blamed.

a reply to: stu119
Ever hear of the Budapest memorandum?

We could have a debate about whether or not it was wise for the US to encourage Ukraine, then the 3rd largest nuclear power in the world, to give up their nukes to Russia, in exchange for an agreement with the US, UK and Russia that they would receive security assurances.

But there can be no debate that the Budapest memorandum is in fact a historical agreement. It's bad enough that Putin violated this agreement promising to not attack Ukraine by attacking Ukraine. Are you suggesting that the US and the UK stoop down to Putin's level and also pretend the agreement doesn't even exist?

a reply to: Arbitrageur

not at all, but i am suggesting its in the Ukrainians best interests to seek a resolution. If they were to cede and recognise some of the eastern land that Russia have already seized it would likely end the bloodshed.

I think we are reaching a point where the US and UK are realising they can't endlessly throw money at this (because it will cost Sunak and Biden their jobs at election time) but the agreement as you state means they have too until theres a resolution.

Strangely i've read reports that Ukraine considered looking for talks but were swayed not too by the US which to me means it is a US proxy war at the expense of Ukranian civilians and the considerable detriment to US citizens and eventually the western economy

originally posted by: stu119
a reply to: Arbitrageur

not at all, but i am suggesting its in the Ukrainians best interests to seek a resolution. If they were to cede and recognise some of the eastern land that Russia have already seized it would likely end the bloodshed.

Ukrainians are the ones giving up their lives in this war, I think it's their decision to make. The reason they give for not ceding land is they think as long as Putin is in charge, he will also break any such agreement reached, just like he broke the Budapest memorandum. My take is if they thought they could trust him, they might.

I think we are reaching a point where the US and UK are realising they can't endlessly throw money at this (because it will cost Sunak and Biden their jobs at election time) but the agreement as you state means they have too until theres a resolution.

Russia has ramped up their military spending from something around 2.1% GDP in 2021 to something like 7% GDP in 2024, equivalent to something like 140 billion USD, a huge increase.

The 2024 US budget calls for $300 billion dollars in aid for Ukraine. Between the $800 toilet seats in the US and the rampant corruption in the Russian military, I'm not sure which amount ends up as more performance on the battlefield, Russia's $140 billion or the $300 billion from the US, but I think $300 billion is enough to keep Russia from steamrollering over Ukraine even if it's not enough to kick Russia out. I think that $300 billion for Kyiv is part of the $886 billion US budget for 2024. If so, that still leaves $586 billion for other defense purposes including the China threat.

That's still a lot compared to other countries, but I think this chart from last year needs updating to reflect the Russian increase in military spending of $140 billion for 2024:

The United States Spends More on Defense than the Next 10 Countries Combined


Even supporting Ukraine, defense spending as a percentage of GDP is relatively low considering the 50 year historical average, and it's predicted to go down even more:

Although the United States spends more on defense than any other country, the Congressional Budget Office projects that defense spending as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) will decline over the next 10 years — from 3.1 percent of GDP in 2023 to 2.8 percent in 2033. That is considerably lower than the 50-year average spending on defense of 4.3 percent of GDP.

I don't know where the GDP of the US will end up for 2024 but I would guess that $886B military budget might come in at about 3.2% GDP for 2024. If the US is going broke, it's not because of allocating a third of that to supporting Ukraine.

Strangely i've read reports that Ukraine considered looking for talks but were swayed not too by the US which to me means it is a US proxy war at the expense of Ukranian civilians and the considerable detriment to US citizens and eventually the western economy

[citation needed] as they say on wikipedia. Are you sure you weren't reading some Russian propaganda?

Zelensky passed a law against negotiation with Putin when Russia annexed Ukraine's territories and claimed they are now part of Russia. Russia doesn't even possess all those territories. Zelensky said he would negotiate with Russia if it had a different leader but he can't trust Putin and as Putin's breaking the Budapest memorandum shows, he can't be trusted to keep agreements.

I don't see the US influence there, but if you can support what you said with a citation that's not Russian propaganda, I'll read it. Heck, I will read it even if it is Russian propaganda, that stuff is interesting, even if fake.

Now whether it's a proxy war or not, it seems to me like the important point is Ukraine doesn't want to live under Putin's thumb and he wants to eradicate Ukraine and will not be satisfied with anything less than either conquering all of Ukraine, or installing a puppet government like he has in Belarus. If you don't understand how much Ukraine doesn't want to live under Putin's oppression, watch this video of Russian soldiers who have lost limbs from land mines and are in rehab trying to learn how to use prosthetics so they can get back to the war and fight the Russian tyranny. There are no Americans in the room telling them to fight a proxy war for the USA, they are fighting for their homeland's very existence.

Scattered like snowdrops': Russian landmines decimate ranks of Ukrainian soldiers

originally posted by: stu119
a reply to: Arbitrageur

not at all, but i am suggesting its in the Ukrainians best interests to seek a resolution. If they were to cede and recognise some of the eastern land that Russia have already seized it would likely end the bloodshed.

I think we are reaching a point where the US and UK are realising they can't endlessly throw money at this (because it will cost Sunak and Biden their jobs at election time) but the agreement as you state means they have too until theres a resolution.

Strangely i've read reports that Ukraine considered looking for talks but were swayed not too by the US which to me means it is a US proxy war at the expense of Ukranian civilians and the considerable detriment to US citizens and eventually the western economy

Correct.

There’s also rabid corruption at the top echelon in the Ukraine regime siphoning money and aid that’s coming on the news more.


The Ukrainian authorities said they had uncovered a scheme for the purchase of artillery shells at inflated prices, amid a wider effort to tackle wartime corruption.

www.nytimes.com...

Zelenskyy made the announcement on his official Telegram account, writing that new leadership was needed after Reznikov went through “more than 550 days of full-scale war.” He named Rustem Umerov, a Crimean Tatar lawmaker, as the new defense minister.

apnews.com...


Only took 550 days to have it called out enough to where they couldn’t hide it anymore.

Hide and Seek.

... dramatic footage has come to light that shows Ukrainian FPV drone operators hunting for Russian armor inside a warehouse, exactly the kind of structure that one would think would conceal and thus protect assets from such attacks.

Read all about it at the War Zone.

Cheers

India confirms citizens have joined Russian military

New Delhi has confirmed that some of India's citizens have signed up for "support jobs" with the Russian army. The Indian government says it is working with Moscow to secure their discharge.The Indian Foreign Ministry says that some of the country's citizens have signed up for jobs helping Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Source

Interesting development. Perhaps they were voluntary enlistments at gunpoint...

India's Hindu newspaper reported Wednesday that some 18 Indians were stranded in various frontlines towns. At least three were "forced" to fight alongside the Russians, the newspaper reported.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2
Fascinating story. War technology, using drones, may be evolving faster now, than at any time in history. Russia only has to cover the entrances with nets to prevent a recurrence of this type of drone attack inside a warehouse, though maybe one drone could sacrifice itself to take out the net, opening a path for other drones? I'm not sure if the net could be cleared enough to do that, but if these things can destroy a tank, I would hope they could sufficiently damage a net.

That article says "The cost-effective impact the munitions are having for Ukraine led Kyiv to declare its intentions to manufacture around a million FPV drones this year", well it's about time. From what I've read, the majority of the FPV drones Ukraine used were not officially sourced by the Ukraine military, yet they seem to be one of Ukraine's most effective weapons. Apparently the majority of them came from other sources, like that youtuber Artur Rehi who raised money to buy and donate drones to Ukraine, and other such sources.

I'm still not sure exactly what the Russian FPV drones look like, and until recently I wasn't sure what the Ukraine FPV drones looked like either until Denys Davydov showed this picture of one with "F-16" written on it. It shows how simple and economical the construction is, looks like an explosive shell, with some electronics attached to some propellers and a big battery pack on top.

Update from Ukraine | Ruzzia Took Avdiivka but Lost The Air Control | 3 Jets downed, 666 tanks gone

FPV Drone-Ukraine:


Lots of other innovations in drone use. Here is Ukraine's mine-laying drone/robot:


Mine clearing drone/robot:


Lots of standard surveillance drones but some are modified to drop grenades.
Ukraine is also experimenting with various sea drones which they have used with some success to sink Russian ships.

Here's one I think Israel hasn't offered to Ukraine, but they could probably use it. Seems killing other drones is a much more complex task to perform, than the simpler FPV drone task of just flying into a target kamikaze style.


I haven't heard anything about these cardboard drones lately, I wonder if they still use them for their radar-evading capability. But they may be susceptible to acoustic warning systems.

Ukraine have claimed the downing of another Russian A-50 spy plane between the cities of Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar.

The head of Ukraine's Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk thanked his service and military intelligence for helping to bring down the plane - a long-range radar detection aircraft - on Friday and noted the incident coincided with a key Russian military holiday.

"Congratulations to the occupiers on the Defender of the Fatherland Day," he said on Telegram.

Video shared online shows the moment the plane appears to be shot down in the air, as well as huge flames and thick, dark smoke seemingly rising after the crash.

At least one Russian military-aligned Telegram channel suggested the plane may have come down as a result of friendly fire. Fighterbomber wrote: "At the moment it is unknown who shot it down."
www.bbc.co.uk...

a reply to: gortex

Shame it wasn't the Tupelov thing that Putin was flying in the other day.