Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Imhere
That's good news for the preservation of Ukrainian troops.
What happened when Ukraine defended Bakhmut is the Russian losses way outnumbered Ukraine losses before Russia entered the city, which is what Ukraine wants, low losses on their side and high losses on the enemy side. But in the urban fighting in Bakhmut, losses were close to 1:1, and Srysky was in charge of keeping them there instead of withdrawing them. I think he was criticized for keeping them there too long when the losses were no longer in Ukraine's favor.

Then in Avdiivka, before Russian forces entered the city, again Russian losses way outnumbered Ukraine losses, even more than in Bakhmut. Then Russian forces entered the city and the 1:1 losses were starting to happen like in Bakhmut.

Ukraine doesn't have enough soldiers to fight 1:1 battles. So maybe Syrsky learned from Bakhmut that it's better to withdraw than suffer more 1:1 losses in urban fighting. Though I think another factor in the withdrawal decision was also the huge volume of gliding bombs Russia was pummeling Avdiivka with. They are powerful bombs and there were so many of them. There was also a risk of encirclement.

I think maybe Ukraine could have used those 60 F-16s they are supposed to get, with their long range missiles. If they had them; maybe they could have taken out some more of those planes launching the gliding bombs. Putin of course is celebrating the victory he wanted before his election next month, but some of the Russian milboggers realize it was a Pyrrhic victory and are not so excited about the high losses.

Even without the F-16s, Ukraine claimed to take out three Russian planes. I think Russia has admitted one. Denys Davydov thinks they were taken out by moving a Patriot system to a risky position in Eastern Ukraine, just a temporary deployment, fire, then pack it up and move it. This article talks about the 3 Russian planes downed but doesn't say how they did it.

Feb 17 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter in the skies over eastern Ukraine on Saturday, the country's air force chief said.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
a reply to: Imhere
That's good news for the preservation of Ukrainian troops.
What happened when Ukraine defended Bakhmut is the Russian losses way outnumbered Ukraine losses before Russia entered the city, which is what Ukraine wants, low losses on their side and high losses on the enemy side. But in the urban fighting in Bakhmut, losses were close to 1:1, and Srysky was in charge of keeping them there instead of withdrawing them. I think he was criticized for keeping them there too long when the losses were no longer in Ukraine's favor.

Then in Avdiivka, before Russian forces entered the city, again Russian losses way outnumbered Ukraine losses, even more than in Bakhmut. Then Russian forces entered the city and the 1:1 losses were starting to happen like in Bakhmut.

Ukraine doesn't have enough soldiers to fight 1:1 battles. So maybe Syrsky learned from Bakhmut that it's better to withdraw than suffer more 1:1 losses in urban fighting. Though I think another factor in the withdrawal decision was also the huge volume of gliding bombs Russia was pummeling Avdiivka with. They are powerful bombs and there were so many of them. There was also a risk of encirclement.

I think maybe Ukraine could have used those 60 F-16s they are supposed to get, with their long range missiles. If they had them; maybe they could have taken out some more of those planes launching the gliding bombs. Putin of course is celebrating the victory he wanted before his election next month, but some of the Russian milboggers realize it was a Pyrrhic victory and are not so excited about the high losses.

Even without the F-16s, Ukraine claimed to take out three Russian planes. I think Russia has admitted one. Denys Davydov thinks they were taken out by moving a Patriot system to a risky position in Eastern Ukraine, just a temporary deployment, fire, then pack it up and move it. This article talks about the 3 Russian planes downed but doesn't say how they did it.

Feb 17 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and one Su-35 fighter in the skies over eastern Ukraine on Saturday, the country's air force chief said.

You can tell Denys Davydov was getting frustrated in the past couple videos being no fan with the replacement on Zaluzhny with Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky lol.

He kept remarking on it with concern. And in that regard was fair.

a reply to: Imhere
Right. Zaluzhny is popular in Ukraine, and I think his replacement has more to do with politics than with his competence.
But the fear Denys had that Syrsky would repeat the high losses in urban fighting in Bakhmut again in Avdiivka didn't materialize.

This is an interesting video about Russia's Pyrrhic victory in Avdiivka. Because of the high losses, some Russian milbloggers are not as happy about it as Putin.

This video talks about a Russian brigade with 4000 soldiers, that once it has 30% losses, it's supposed to be rotated out and reconstituted back to strength before being sent back to the front line. But Russia losses were so high a brigade had 70% losses and it tried to keep going. The video describes the suicide missions where Russians were running toward Ukrainian machine gun nests and getting mowed down, and he shows screenshots from a video of Russian fallen soldiers everywhere, lots of disabled or destroyed vehicles too.

18 Feb: Shocking Footage REVEALS THE REAL COST RUSSIANS PAID FOR AVDIIVKA | War in Ukraine Explained


Apparently Putin didn't care how high the Russian losses were, he wanted Avdiivka taken at any cost, and they tried to encircle Ukraine's troops. There were 6 injured Ukrainians in Zenit, who couldn't get out by themselves due to their injuries, who were encircled and killed, but the withdrawal was mostly successful aside from that, according to a couple of youtube channels. There were reports of soldiers trapped in the coke plant, but I don't know how many. The gliding bombs were killing soldiers from both sides in close combat during withdrawal.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Only just noticed this reply...

Carpy I'll attempt to be realistic whilst admitting I really don't know the Russian mindframe, I've met a few Slavs over the years and all I can say about them is they're proud, strong people who always make up in abundance for the things they are lacking. I've rarely found them lacking.

Russia can and most likely will win this war, especially if western backing slips.

It was obvious from day 1 that Russia isn't upto scratch when it comes to modern military engagements but it will learn as it has. The question is can it absorb the losses and despite all it's problems at home it seemingly can absorb those losses. They've effectively lost the population of where I live twice, 3x as many serving British troops have died in Ukraine wearing Russian insignia. I don't find that amusing at all considering we can effectively double that and call it the losses of the Ukrainian invasion.

Really really sad stuff.

Each one dead was a person with similar hopes and dreams of your own, some as old as you hoping for better tomorrows for the ones they know and some mere bairns who should have been feeling hope and wonder towards the future. Instead their mortal remains are rotting in a field somewhere in a makeshift burial.

I'll laugh at anyone who says a Russian cannot fight just like I'll laugh at anyone who says an Englishman cannot fight. It's not our ability to fight that's the issue, it's our lack of humanity towards each other and I'm guessing that starts within this thread or in similar veins as charity, I.E at home.

I remember when there was a credible threat that the Soviet army would roll through Germany.

They still can. It'll be with sticks and stones though as same as yesterday.

a reply to: RAY1990

Can't disagree but what's this about?

"3x as many serving British troops have died in Ukraine wearing Russian insignia."

Medvedev repeats the threat to nuke Berlin, London and Washington.

news.yahoo.com... rrer_sig=AQAAACtzNJAjKtDEqaWt8sRYVOWWK2ZwlFjcp-37BX2UDDPG5tkccLEu7MDU7itsRVfHzp_O8gIAe3Eb-U9miZGTLPBycY_S8xvRGpHK-U-3bmUIJEmBb7Fjz0P5bEBxS_zMtcyvBSI2M 1Q0B41yTizp2fneKj0my_kiEWDZovde3bXh

Mental.

a reply to: Freeborn

Mental Med's off his meds. Again.

a reply to: Freeborn

I can't help but wonder, do they understand that everyone would send their nukes to Russia, and we could all find out what MAD really looks like? I am very much anti war, but daddy always said, if you are going to do something, do it right. that would be a quick war, only lasting a few hours.

But I would feel really bad for those who lived. That would suck exponentially worse than being vaporized.

I wonder why we let imbeciles run things?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: RAY1990

Can't disagree but what's this about?

"3x as many serving British troops have died in Ukraine wearing Russian insignia."

The number is a higher actually.

It's just statistics. Sometimes our misfortuned adventures into the Middle East are mentioned, often associated with cost. Afghanistan cost us 454 men for instance. I know of 3 who served there who died some time after returning, I guess I was alluding to the actual cost of war.

Like I said I don't know the Russian mind but mine finds it hard to calculate the misfortune whilst claiming it acceptable.


-----
Just to reiterate, we found 454 dead too many, I personally found 3 too many. Russia has lost 1000x in actual combat and will lose a lot more later on, same for Ukraine.

youtu.be...

The sentiments sound a lot like this

a reply to: Freeborn
He said if Russia is forced to return to its 1991 borders, that's a threat to its existence. What? How can he say Russia didn't exist with the borders it had in 1991, the guy is nuts. I thought Xi Jinping had asked Putin to tone down the nuke rhetoric, but maybe he forgot to mention that means his minions too.

originally posted by: RAY1990
"3x as many serving British troops have died in Ukraine wearing Russian insignia."

It's just statistics.

So in your mind, saying "It's just statistics" is supposed to explain why British troops were wearing Russian insignia? Shouldn't British troops be wearing British insignia? Why would statistics make them wear the wrong insignia?

Anyway, this combat veteran paraphrased Bidens comments lamenting the lack of recent US support for Ukraine as saying it's the fault of the USA that Ukraine lost Avdiivka.

I would say that's partially true, but Europe fell short of its promised deliveries of artillery shells too.

Avdiivka Falls!! Biden Admits: Its USA's Fault!

That's not an exact quote by Biden, but if you don't like the paraphrasing, he reads the exact Biden quote in the video.

It's not just that the US can't get support through its current political process.

Even Bill Clinton feels badly about asking Ukraine to give all their nukes to Russia. If Ukraine had kept those nukes, maybe Russia wouldn't have invaded. They had the third largest nuclear stockpile in the world, and are clever enough to have re-engineered the firing systems to be able to use them. So that's another reason it may be the fault of the US, that Biden and Combat veteran didn't mention recently, though I can understand why Clinton thought the fewer countries with nukes, the better.

Some " rumours" out there that because republicans block Ukraine aid, Biden may consider to decide give ATACMS missile to Ukraine, the longer range version.

And other rumour, Germany may give the Taurus missile ....


If Ukraine would get both or just one of those missiles....the Kerch bridge may see the end very soon .

a reply to: RAY1990

I've met a few Slavs over the years and all I can say about them is they're proud, strong people who always make up in abundance for the things they are lacking. I've rarely found them lacking.

Yes, I've met a few.....they are incredibly resilient and have a good sense of humour.
But as a massive generalisation its been my impression that they have a huge chip on their shoulder and sort of wallow in adversity.

I'll laugh at anyone who says a Russian cannot fight.....

Of course they can fight, when they have something to fight for.
In WII they were fighting an opponent who had invaded their Motherland and who had a scorched earth policy destroying everything and everyone they came into contact with.
Their enemy was intent on wiping Russia and Russians off the face of the earth.
If that's not enough to make a person fight till their dying breath then nothing is.

That's not the case in Ukraine.
Russia is the invader, invading a non-threatening neighbour - a neighbour that many Russians still have close ties to.
They are poorly trained, poorly armed and supplied and poorly motivated.
In this instance its the Ukrainians who are fighting for their very existence.

....3x as many serving British troops have died in Ukraine wearing Russian insignia.

There seems to be some confusion as to what you meant by this.
I took it as you saying three times as many Russians have died in this war as there are currently British troops enlisted in our Armed Forces?

a reply to: Arbitrageur

He said if Russia is forced to return to its 1991 borders, that's a threat to its existence

They are mental....absolutely stark, raving bonkers.

Putin has previously said, " Without Russia there can be no earth", implying that if he ever felt Russia was threatened he would without hesitation unleash Russia's nuclear arsenal on 'The West' in the full knowledge that it would make M.A.D. a reality.
He, Medvedev and others have repeatedly threatened to nuke the UK - he does seem to have some sort of obsession with us.

I think its important to try to visualise and understand things from others point of view, especially one's opponents.
But its incredibly hard with people like Putin et al who have a completely different mindset to us and see things through such a paranoid, blinkered and insular perspective.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: Arbitrageur

He said if Russia is forced to return to its 1991 borders, that's a threat to its existence

They are mental....absolutely stark, raving bonkers.

Putin has previously said, " Without Russia there can be no earth", implying that if he ever felt Russia was threatened he would without hesitation unleash Russia's nuclear arsenal on 'The West' in the full knowledge that it would make M.A.D. a reality.
He, Medvedev and others have repeatedly threatened to nuke the UK - he does seem to have some sort of obsession with us.

I think its important to try to visualise and understand things from others point of view, especially one's opponents.
But its incredibly hard with people like Putin et al who have a completely different mindset to us and see things through such a paranoid, blinkered and insular perspective.

NATO planted a base in Kosovo in 99’.

Which is sovereign land and Serbia’s cradle since before 1100’s.

The Clinton/Biden/Tony Blair backed NATO, bombed Serbia for 72days.

and stripped Kosovo and gave it to the then recent influx of radicalized Muslims extremists with ties to Alqaeda terrorist cells. And not peep from that administration about it and then 9/11 happened afterwards.

Even if the apparent genocide in Kosovo was one sided and true with Milosevic being president. That’s akin to us stripping Hamburg or Frankfort or Munich from Germany and giving it to a recent influx of Muslims their own country if they were closer to the south.

Did you know Ukraine doesn’t recognize Kosovo as independent? Or at least hasn’t prior to 22/23’.

a reply to: Imhere

Meanwhile, in the here and now, Russia threatens us with nuclear annihilation.

How do you feel about that?

a reply to: Imhere

"Even if the apparent genocide in Kosovo was one sided and true with Milosevic being president. That’s akin to us stripping Hamburg or Frankfort or Munich from Germany and giving it to a recent influx of Muslims their own country if they were closer to the south."

No it isn't.

Germany has not committed genocide.

Not recently, anyway.

18 AND 19 February Update, AND 2nd Part

The Ukrainian command also recently committed fresh units to the Avdiivka front to counterattack advancing Russian forces and provide an evacuation corridor for Ukrainian units withdrawing from Avdiivka.

The Russian capture of Avdiivka after four months of intensified offensive operations exemplifies the way that Russian forces pursue offensive operations that do not necessarily set conditions for wider operational gains but still force Ukraine to commit manpower and materiel to defensive operations.

Russian forces have not yet demonstrated an ability to secure operationally significant gains or conduct rapid mechanized maneuver across large swaths of territory, and the capture of Avdiivka should not be taken as demonstrating this capability.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on February 18 that Denmark is donating its “entire artillery” to Ukraine.

Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 18.

Russian actors conducted a cyber operation regarding Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka, likely aimed at generating panic in the Ukrainian information space and weakening Ukrainian morale.

The tempo of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has reportedly dramatically slowed following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka.

Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two more Russian fighter aircraft, a Su-34 and a Su-35S, in eastern Ukraine on the morning of February 19.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Imhere

What has any of that got to do with Russia threatening to nuke London, Washington and Berlin?

As for Ukraine not recognising Kosovo?
That's up to them - they are an independent country and have their own foreign policies, nothing to do with us....or Russia.

a reply to: Freeborn

Nothing.

It's just the Krumblin Kool Ade talking.