Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

Interesting details about Mariupol plan , connecting Paul Manafort , Vladimir Putin , Donald Trump and the plans Russia had with Ukraine .


Former Mueller prosecutor @AWeissmann ’s book: Paul Manafort, Trump’s second campaign manager, met with a Putin ally to discuss a proposed deal that would have allowed Russia to annex a part of Ukraine. This was done with Trump's implicit approval.


The Untold Story of ‘Russiagate’ and the Road to War in Ukraine


And more :

How Cohen’s and Manafort’s Ukraine Ties Tell the Deeper Story of Trump-Russia and the Mueller Probe


Think You Know How Deep Trump-Russia Goes? Think Again: This Chart/Info Will Blow Your Mind


Quite an rabbithole there eh ?

1 March Update

Ukraine and the Netherlands signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on March 1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Netherlands announced that it would provide 2 billion euros (about $2.17 billion) in military aid to Ukraine in 2024 and additional security assistance over the next 10 years.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City on March 1.

More at URL above.

Cheers

A drone attack on an apartment building in Putin's home town of St. Petersburg this morning caused damage but no fatalities according to Russian media.

a reply to: gortex
The video says the presumed target of the presumed Ukraine drone was a nearby oil refinery, and that nobody was hurt, but the buildings took some damage, as seen in the video. Ukraine will continue attacking oil refineries, trying to slow down Russia's war effort by reducing availability of refined oil products, and reducing Russia's income from exporting oil and refined oil products. No indication yet if the Ukraine drone was downed by Russian air defense or EW causing it to miss its target.

Meanwhile, at least 7 Ukrainians died, including a three-month old infant and his mother, and a three-year-old boy, when one of their apartment buildings was hit by a Russian drone in Odessa:

Ukraine Suffers Drone Attack as UAV Hits Russia’s St. Petersburg

(Bloomberg) -- At least seven deaths were reported following a Russian drone strike on an apartment building in Ukraine’s Black Sea city of Odesa early Saturday.

Separately, a UAV was suspected of hitting a residential building in Russia’s St. Petersburg, hundreds of miles from the border, and Ukraine’s Air Defense chief said Kyiv downed a Russian Su-34 fighter jet - the latest in a recent string of attacks on military aircraft.

Ukraine said it shot down 14 out of 17 “Shahed”-type drones launched from Russian territory and occupied Crimea. The UAVs were concentrated in Kharkiv and the Sumy region in the northeast as well as Odesa

At least 18 apartments were destroyed in the strike and the death toll has risen steadily over the day. Among the victims was a three-month old infant and his mother, and a three-year-old boy.

2 March Update

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on March 2 that Ukrainian forces destroyed one Su-34 aircraft that was conducting glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine on the morning of March 1.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Krynky on March 2.

Senior Russian officials acknowledged Armenia’s reduced participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), marking a notable shift in Russian official rhetoric that previously sought to ignore Armenian efforts to distance itself from the CSTO.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
No indication yet if the Ukraine drone was downed by Russian air defense or EW causing it to miss its target.

We have an update on that now from Denys Davydov who said at 7:44 in his latest video below that Russian sources reported they used EW=Electronic Warfare to bring Ukraine's drone down before it hit the refinery it was targeting:

Update from Ukraine | Minus two planes for Ruzzia | Ukraine attacks using M2 Bradley. Unique Video


He said the apartment building was empty when it was hit which explains why nobody got hurt.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
2 March Update

"The Ukrainian Air Force reported on March 2 that Ukrainian forces destroyed one Su-34 aircraft that was conducting glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine on the morning of March 1."

Denys also mentioned that Ukraine's Air Force reported 15 downed Russian planes in the past two weeks, including that one (and some helicopters also).

Apparently Russia is trying to spin some of that as "fake news", but he says at least one prominent Russian milblogger acknowledges most of those Russian aircraft losses.

This Russian blogger "Sanctioned Ivan" needs to get out of Russia, he said he's against the war in Ukraine. Isn't it even illegal to call it a war in Russia? It's supposed to be called a "Special Military Operation". I think his prediction there will be another mobilization after the Russian re-election of Putin later this month is a fairly safe prediction. He talks about all the draconian laws Russia has passed in the last year, to make escaping the mobilization almost impossible for someone who stays in Russia, like the person's ability to engage in a variety of transactions is frozen if they don't show up when called for mobilization.

Mobilisation In Russia by "Sanctioned Ivan"



This video from The Russian Dude (TRD) is interesting when it talks about Putin's allies Belarus and N. Korea:

Putin is BETRAYED: Z-Army KICKED OUT of Belarus. North Korea ABANDONS RUSSIA.

It claims Belarus got tired of hosting 12,000 Russian soldiers stationed there and kicked them out of the country.
It also claims that N. Korea shipped something like 2.5 million munitions/shells to Russia, but it's not shipping more. TRD guesses maybe N Korea got what it wants from Russia (nuclear/ICBM secrets maybe?) and doesn't have more incentive to keep shipping munitions to Russia.

Another problem with Russia's ally, not so much in the war with Ukraine, but the first member "B" in the "BRICS" alliance is Brazil. Did you guys hear what happened when Russia sent their top diplomat Lavrov to Brazil for the G20 conference recently? Brazil refused to re-fuel his plane! That seems like a little crack in the BRICs alliance.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov was forced to sit and listen at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday as Russia was lambasted for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Top diplomats from the US, UK, Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, France and Norway gathered in Brazil – holder of the G20 presidency this year – as they made scathing remarks against Russia at the start of the two-day meeting which Mr Lavrov is attending...

“We have to support Ukraine until it emerges as a free and independent sovereign country without another army on its soil,” Mr Eide said.

He added that Mr Lavrov replied to the British foreign secretary’s remarks with “a set of alternative facts” about events in Ukraine.

Mr Lavrov did not speak to reporters or share details of his remarks at the summit.

So we don't know exactly what Lavrov said, but his alternative facts are usually something like "but Ukrainians are nazis...." which kind of propaganda may work on brainwashed Russians with no other sources of information, but it doesn't sit well with the G20 leaders.

After the G20 roasted Lavrov over how terrible Russia was for its illegal territory grab, Brazil refused to re-fuel his plane!

Lavrov's plane denied refueling in Brazil

Putin's selling a lot of oil to China to keep the Russian economy going, but the prices is low and Russian income from oil exports has dropped, so they are having budget issues. And even though China's oil purchases are doing a lot to keep Russia's economy afloat, I don't think that means they are best friends. I wouldn't be surprised if China is eyeing their old Haishenwai port that used to be part of China, now more than ever after Putin's interview with Tucker Carlson explaining how history meant he should get his old territory back. So if Putin can use that reasoning, why can't China? In fact China already printed new maps showing their old Haishenwai port as Chinese territory even before Carlson's Putin interview.

China’s Maps Call Vladivostok ‘Haishenwai’

standards, released by the Ministry of Natural Resources on the approval of the State Council of the people’s republic, require that all Chinese maps “accurately reflect the scope of China’s territory.” In addition to islands in the South China Sea and Free China –– which is to be called “Taiwan Province” –– this also appears to include eight Russian cities that span the Sino-Russian border.

Vladivostok has become “Haishenwai.” Khabarovsk, Russia’s easternmost city, “Boli.” Sakhalin, the Kremlin’s outpost in the Pacific Ocean, just 27 miles north of Japan, is now “Kuedao.”

Beijing maintains that these, and five other, territories were unduly handed to Tsarist Russia in a bout of treaties that saw Moscow strip China of 350,000 square miles of land during the nineteenth century. The CCP claims that the new standards then reflect “China’s actual borders based on historical materials.”

What does that have to do with the War in Ukraine?

What we see now is that Russia has been exposed as a paper tiger, and their modern tanks are so depleted, they are relying on museum peices like T55 and T62 tanks in their invasion of Ukraine. So if China was going to assert itself to take back territories that it feels Russia wrongly took from them, maybe the war with Ukraine has presented a possible opportunity for them. However, the flip side is China can see how Russia's economy gets affected when the world turns against them for their aggression, and China is having some economic woes already, so this might be a bad time to make those worse by aggression leading to sanctions similar to Russian sanctions. China didn't even have to use aggression to start using Haishenwai, they started commercial use last year, but their military is another story:

Russia fears China could seek to occupy its territory in the Far East and would limit Chinese military access to Vladivostok...

a reply to: Arbitrageur


Unofficial theory why Ukraine have downned such high number Russian jets is because they earlyer captured Russian plane, which US experts then looked and find something that can help Ukraine . Sounds quite possible to me ..


Fat, Dumb and Happy – Brutal Recent Russian Jet Losses Possibly Linked to Compromised Avionics

According to Austrian aviation war expert Tom Cooper, a probable but as-yet unproven and unconfirmed explanation for the recent string of Sukhoi shoot-downs is the compromise of confidential defensive electronic systems aboard the Russian jets to Ukrainian and US technicians, and tweaks made to Ukrainian-operated anti-aircraft systems taking advantage of the knowledge.

A single Su-34 airframe may have come into Ukrainian possession early in the war, Cooper suggested in a Feb. 29 blog entry. The most likely US agency to do the research and countermeasure development is the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, formerly the Foreign Technology Division of the US Air Force, he said.

Possible research and countermeasure development could focus on determining when a pilot might detect an incoming missile and how the electronic warfare pod might identify Ukrainian missiles and radars to try to spoof them, and identifying frequencies the radar warning device searches for threats on, and then using other frequencies to attack the Russian jet.

Compromise of even one of the more than half-dozen electronic defense systems could, military aviation analysts say, lead a pilot into thinking the skies around them are safe because their instruments say so, at a time when they are actually being targeted. Combat pilots commonly call the situation a condition of “flying fat, dumb and happy.” According to Kyiv Post research, at least two Su-34 air frames, both damaged, have fallen into Ukrainian hands. Kyiv Post researchers could not confirm electronics aboard the plane surviving the crashes was forwarded to NATO nation avionics experts for evaluation and counter-measures development or their condition.

Aside from entire aircraft, Ukrainian forces have captured critical components that would be predictable targets for research and counter-measure development. One of the widest-reported was the Sept. 2022 recovery by Ukrainian troops of an RTU 518-PSM self-protection jamming pod, a cutting edge defense system, on a crashed Su-30 fighter jet. The Su-34 and Su-35 both typically carry the pod.

Sanctioned Ivan needs to get out of Russia before....

a reply to: Kenzo
That's an interesting hypothesis about how Russian planes are being targeted, and Ukraine won't want to confirm that publicly since the less Russia knows,the better for Ukraine.

Russia is hurting from the lack of the A-50s that have been shot down. They are going to try to re-start production of the outdated aircraft, but there is some skepticism if they can actually do that, as discussed here:

Russia Building More Dated A-50 Radar Planes Is Desperate But May Be Necessary

t’s no secret that Russia’s fleet of A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft has taken a beating in the war in Ukraine, with two examples shot down under still-mysterious circumstances and another damaged by a drone strike. But a recent proposal to restart production of these high-value aircraft is questionable, to say the least. It also sheds further light on the significant problems Moscow has faced in fielding a new-generation AEW&C platform, the A-100, which remains in limbo, for the time being...

Production of the Il-76MD, on which the A-50 was based, has long since ended and, besides, the production line was in what is now Uzbekistan, not in Russia.

I'm not sure why they would try to resume production of a design that dates back to the 1960s (the A-50) instead of the more modern A-100 that first flew a prototype in 2017, but is still not in use. Apparently Russia is having some kind of problems with the A-100.

The A-100, which first flew in 2017, is still not in operational service.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yeeh maybe Ukraine dont want to give details ..

It`s right now quite bad situation for Russian air force . I did not know there was A-100 ....i guess they .

I believe the A-50 shot down with refurbished ex-Soviet S-200 battery. The thing with that is , it has SQUARE PAIR radar rocking 100,000 watts of 6 Ghz radiated power for a 100 square meter radar . And A-50 lack something to against it

So the 60s technology still works .....S-200 vs A-50 . It`s their own fault building A-50 without electronics that can counter S-200 .

a reply to: Kenzo

Another explanation is that this is part of Putin "human wave" tactic where he is throwing everything he can at Ukraine to overwhelm their defenses like what recently did to lever out the Ukrainian from their defenses

Putin didnt care at the level of losses as long as they could capture Ukrainian territory

Putin has a new worry as the promised F 16 are now starting to arrive

originally posted by: dragonridr
a reply to: Arbitrageur

Oh I agree this war is hurting the Russians. Problem is they are willing to take a lot of pain to win this war. At the 2 year mark I've realized Ukraine can't win the best they can hope for is to negotiate a good deal.

Now this negotiation has already cost Ukraine more than you can imagine. They have lost over a million people to flight as Ukrainians flee war zones. Entire cities have been leveled to scrap and currently unlivable. They have lost 31000 soldiers with many more being wounded and missing limbs. As long as Putin is willing to throw Russian bodies at Ukraine then Ukraine can't win.

Now here's what changed I look ar the death and destruction in Ukraine and then realized all they are trying to do is negotiate a settlement. They can't possibly manufacture enough to keep up with Russia. They also do not have the population to continue to sustain these losses. Like it or not if Putin is willing to except the losses he eventually will win.

So is destroying Ukraine worth the bloody nose to Putin? Someone needs to get in there get these 2 talking and negotiate a peace treaty now. If you wait there will not be anything left if Ukraine in 5 years. Any damage to the Russians have already been done at this point there is nothing else you can do to hurt them. We're out of sanctions were out of shells it's already going to take the US years to replace the shells in our own inventory.

And sadly we see that artillery battles are the key to winning this war. I think early victories created a false hope that a country a tenth of the size of Russia could win. As we see winning has become impossible. So the status changed to creating a draw. Then when it was realized that wasn't sustainable now we just watch Ukraine getting weaker as the Russians grow stronger


I know this won't be a popular view with many but how many people must die only to have to negotiate a settlement anyway?

Meanwhile , Germany Shoots itself in the Foot Again ,


Scholz Promises Probe Into "Very Serious" Leaked Recording Of Plan To Destroy Crimea Bridge

www.zerohedge.com...


The issue is not an intercepted call.
It is the fact that the German Military is talking about Blowing Up a Civilian Bridge Miles away from any Battlefield in a War Germany is “Not Involved In”. Yet .

a reply to: firerescue

That`s certainly true also, Putin dont care losses at all and orders them just continue , daily losses are around 800-1100 men but he dont care .

few more Months to F 16 use . Sweden might give also their Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine....i think Gripen is good and cheaper to operate too , not yet sure about the deal thought.

3 March Update

Positional engagements continued throughout the theater on March 3.

More at URL above.

As well, Russian air strikes have slackened.

Cheers

Russian ship rejoins North Korea weapons trade, only for operation to go on hold

A Russian cargo ship recently rejoined an alleged weapons shipping operation with North Korea after a three-month hiatus, replacing another that recently traveled to a Chinese port for possible maintenance work, according to NK Pro analysis.

But soon after it carried containers from North Korea’s Rason Port to Russia’s Vostochny Port in early February, the entire maritime operation appeared to go on hold, as Russian ships linked to the trade stopped appearing at either port in available satellite imagery.

It is unclear if this is due to production problems at DPRK weapons factories or another issue. Other signs point to a resumption in the future, however, highlighting the need to continue monitoring the vessels.

Soruce

Apparently, four ships, the Lady R, the Angara, the Maia-1, and the Maria, that have been tracked making shipments between North Korea and Russia have recently stopped their maritime activities.

Interesting development. Production shortages? Change in tactics? Or using planes, trains, and automobiles to move the stuff?

Explosion Hits Bridge Used by Military Deep Inside Russia, Kyiv Confirms

The incident marks the latest in a number of railway attacks in Russia throughout the country's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In June last year, an explosion rocked a railway line in Crimea's Feodosia region, and a month earlier, a blast suspended rail traffic between Simferopol, the capital of annexed Crimea, and Sevastopol.

Source

Ukrainians damaging Russia's supply line. Seems like a good move to me.

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
www.zerohedge.com...

The issue is not an intercepted call.
It is the fact that the German Military is talking about Blowing Up a Civilian Bridge Miles away from any Battlefield in a War Germany is “Not Involved In”. Yet .

My opinion is exactly opposite yours. You say the issue is not the intercepted call, I say the issue IS the intercepted call. It shows Germany has a security problem.

You say the issue is about Germany giving Ukraine munitions. I don't see that as much of an issue because Germany is already supplying Ukraine with munitions. The UK has been sending storm shadow missiles to Ukraine which they have fired at Crimea. So if Germany also sends missiles to Ukraine, and Ukraine also fires those at Crimea, Germany won't be doing anything the UK hasn't already been doing.

Whether the Crimea bridge is a civilian or military target I suppose could be debated, but president Zelensky calls it a military target. It has already been attacked several times by Ukraine in the past, so it shouldn't be any surprise that Ukraine and its allies are discussing further attacks of the bridge, at least it's no surprise to me, I don't know why it would be a surprise to you or to Russia. I see Russia's feigned indignation at the leaked German conversation as just more propaganda, it's Russia who started this whole conflict after all. Sholtz may have some political repercussions inside Germany, but I think those tensions were already there and the leaks just made them more visible.

I'd be interested to know the investigation results of how the leak happened, if it was a Russian spy inside Germany, or a Russian hack, or whatever. But I don't know if the results of that investigation will be shared publicly.

Ukraine just fired 38 drones at Crimea after the German leak happened, apparently causing temporary closure of the Crimean bridge. Russia claims they intercepted all 38 drones.

Ukraine Attack Shuts Kerch Bridge After Plans Leaked

Russia's Defense Ministry said early on Sunday that Ukraine had targeted Crimea with 38 airborne drones in an overnight attack. Russian air defense systems downed all of the incoming drones, Moscow said. It did not specify where the uncrewed vehicles were shot down, nor whether there was any damage.

Of course, Russia has claimed it shot down all drones in the past, when civilian videos on social media contradicted the claim, showing a few got through, so I guess we need to see if Russia's claim hold up this time.

a reply to: Arbitrageur





" You say the issue is about Germany giving Ukraine munitions."

Incorrect . I Never said or Implied that .

a reply to: Arbitrageur

It shows Germany has a security problem.

Their security has been penetrated since some time before World War II. Evidence of a deeply conflicted society.

Cheers

a reply to: Zanti Misfit
Here's an exact quote:
"It is the fact that the German Military is talking about Blowing Up a Civilian Bridge Miles away from any Battlefield in a War Germany is “Not Involved In”. Yet."

Blowing up a bridge certainly involves munitions of some type so use of munitions is at least implied, and the attack would have to be launched from Ukraine so it implies supplying munitions to Ukraine, or if you say otherwise, that needs some explaining. You don't think Germany was talking about launching a missile at the Kerch bridge from Germany, do you?

You posted a link with your comment which says this:
"German chancellor Olaf Scholz has promised a full investigation after Russia published a recording of a phone call between senior German air force officers in which they appeared to discuss supplying missiles to Ukraine."

So I'm not seeing your point, if it's not about what's in your link. Maybe you can explain what you're trying to say better.

It's no secret that Zelensky has been getting support from its allies with advice on how to carry out its attacks.
Sometimes Ukraine chooses to not follow the advice, but I don't know how you got the idea that wasn't happening since the beginning of the invasion. Even before the invasion, Ukraine's allies were giving Ukraine advice to get ready for the invasion because they could see it was coming.

Again, Zelensky says the bridge is a military target, and it's no secret Zelensky plans to attack it again.
Maybe Russia should put a sign before the last exit from the bridge road before the bridge, saying "Ukraine has already attacked this bridge, and plans to attack it again so cross at your own risk. Consider using the ferry."
Russia has already repeatedly closed the bridge to civilian traffic. They just did it again temporarily again this weekend, so Russia certainly signals it's a military target, when they close the bridge to civilian traffic.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: Arbitrageur

It shows Germany has a security problem.

Their security has been penetrated since some time before World War II. Evidence of a deeply conflicted society.

Cheers

Does that imply it's not a problem with Russian spies? It seems to imply that.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

You are going to Need a Sharper Razor to Split those Hairs . Get REAL .