Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Freeborn

Hi Freeborn,

France was recently, and now, German EU politicians are heavily pushing the EU army idea. The way I see it it this: their crying about Trump is cynical; they just use it as a springboard to push their "more EU" ideas, including the EU army notion.

I doubt Trump would leave NATO in the lurch. During his term in office, he provocatively spoke but his actions were well grounded and he listened to the advice of others (that didn't work well for him in the case of Fauci).

There are aspects to the Ukraine war that have been almost forgotten in the years since it started. For example, I suspect there were German elites who knew very well that Putin was going to invade and calculated there would be profits to be made by running interference for Putin's actions (one may recall how long it took Germany to actually align with the rest of Europe following the invasion ... there was IMO malign influence afoot.)

So, again, when the EU crowd howls about Trump, a lot of that howling is self-serving rather than genuine expressions of dismay. The whole business reminds me of Churchill's comment:

There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.

Both parties would do well to recall the wisdom therein.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Only 5 EU nations are not members of NATO; Austria, Cyprus, Ireland, Malta & Sweden.
Sweden is due to join NATO this year.

I can't imagine NATO sitting idly by and doing nothing if the security and sovereignty of any of the other four nations were compromised.

So what could possibly be gained by establishing an EU Army along with all the costs and bureaucracy involved?
Member nations would be handing over control of their armed forces to other nations and thus more or less the ability to independently defend themselves.
And as most things EU, who would have ultimate control - France and Germany.

Why not simply increase national defence budgets and involvement in the existing organisation that has a long and established record in maintaining peace and cooperation between allied nations?

As for Trump; Sorry mate but I think he'd sell NATO and the USA's allies down the river without a second thought.
I certainly don't see him providing much support for Ukraine if he gets elected - unless of course he gets to be perceived as The Great Saviour.

But I digress - apologies, I have no desire to derail this thread and turn it into a Trump/Biden bitchfest like so many other threads here on ATS.

a reply to: Freeborn

Hi Freeborn,

Yeah, I try to look at these situations with historical perspective.

Trump has been a factor since 2016, some 8 years.

But for four times as long, the mentality among "security experts" in the EU has been PARTY TIME. No threats, north, south, east, or west. Of course, that was nonsense. The global south has been unhappy since decolonialization and Russia has been unhappy since their dysfunctional communist government ran them into the ground by 1990.

Couple that with continental leadership like that of Merkel and Schroeder, very cozy with Moscow because, supposedly, the Germans have some kind of "special understanding" when it comes to Russia.

Now, Trump prods them with provocative comments, and what ? Narrative creation that the USA is going to abandon NATO and we MUST have an EU army. Like you, I distrust that idea because of the two countries that are pushing it.

Know something else, regarding BrExit ? We can bet one of the bits that stung the EU was that they no longer had much leverage over the UK's nuclear hammer. Now it is only the French who have nukes, although a German MEP recently called for the Germany to acquire them as well (Achtung!).

It is all a bad joke. Germany can't even keep one brigade in operation in the Baltic Republics and had to strain to send ONE ship to the Persian Gulf. France has retreated posthaste from NW Africa ... and the USA ... well, we STILL have EIGHTY THOUSAND troops in Europe because the EU hasn't treated the defense of their own continent seriously for a third of a century.

I shake my head at it all, but for me, Trump's provocative statements are only one aspect of a multi-faceted ... turd.

Cheers mate!

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

You can't polish a turd.

ive been watching a few youtuber guys who use geolocation to update their maps and discuss the ongoing conflict

im not sure where they sit personally on the war but they do seem to be giving unbiased reports as far as I can tell , happy to be corrected

HistoryLegends , WillyOAM, civ div , and russian dude

here is history legends update on the battle for Avdiivka

originally posted by: sapien1982
ive been watching a few youtuber guys who use geolocation to update their maps and discuss the ongoing conflict

im not sure where they sit personally on the war but they do seem to be giving unbiased reports as far as I can tell , happy to be corrected

HistoryLegends , WillyOAM, civ div , and russian dude

here is history legends update on the battle for Avdiivka

I don't see how you can stand to watch his histrionics. His channel should be called histrionics legends instead of history legends. He's the guy who for 6 months, over and over again, kept saying Bakhmut is going to fall any day now. Well actually it took something like 8 months for Russia to take it. so if you don't mind him being 6 months off on his "any day now" predictions, go for it.

But his whole style to me is completely appalling, because he acts like he knows more than the commanders on the front lines do about what's going on at the front lines. Obviously, he doesn't, since Bakhmut actually fell 6 months after he was saying "any day now". He's sort of doing the same thing with Avdiivka, which like Bakmut, will eventually fall, but that doesn't mean it's as imminent as his video suggests. The question is whether Ukraine can hold on to Avdiivka until after the Russian elections are over. My take is they would like to do their withdrawal after the elections, if they can hang on that long, and Putin of course wants to take Avdiivka before the elections. It's not like it will influence who actually gets elected, it will be Putin either way, but if he takes Avdiivka before the elections, they may show additional support for him and Ukraine doesn't want that to happen. I really can't predict whether Ukraine can hold on to Avdiivka until the Russian elections or not, war is sometimes unpredictable.

TheRussianDude is somewhat biased against Russia even though he's Russian. He's sort of exiled from Russia because he was anti-war with Ukraine and that's illegal in Russia now. I think he's in Canada, or was. I watched his video yesterday and the title was kind of click-baity saying Russians surrendered in Robotyne. But when you actually watched the video, then he talked about an unconfirmed claim that one Russian soldier may have surrendered, which to me is not really significant enough to make it into the title of the video, though he can certainly mention unconfirmed rumors if he wants.

The Deep State maps are I think intentionally delayed by some time so are more likely to show the territories and gray zones as they were a day or two ago, and not necessarily how they are today. But with that caveat I think they are reasonably close to being accurate. Even if they wanted a current map, there is enough back and forth swapping of territory possession that it's difficult to keep track of that on a real time basis. I prefer the youtubers who matter of factly go over the deep state and similar maps and show what territories have been gained or lost by either side recently, in a matter of fact way, without all the histrionics.

Navalny, a big opponent of Putin and his dictatorial kleptocratic grip on Russia, died in prison today. I don't know why he returned to Russia after Putin's minions tried to kill him with poison. I suspect he died in prison either from complications of his previous poisoning, or maybe they just poisoned him some more in prison, though media reports say cause of death is being investigated. It's not like Navalny had any choice is what food he was being served once he was in prison.

Speaking of TheRussianDude, he showed an interesting map in his latest video. It shows the curvy paths taken by the latest Russian missiles and drones trying to avoid air defenses in Ukraine:



Notice how one path on the left just barely missed Polish air space? I think these types of curvy paths have brought one or two previous Russian missiles into Polish air space on their way back to Ukraine. Here's the video where he talks about that, and about Ukraine's "secret" plan to save Avdiivka though since he's blabbing about it I suppose it's not so secret anymore.

Ukraine’s SECRET STRATEGY TO SAVE Avdiivka. Russians ATTACKED THEMSELVES in Belgorod. Putin CHECHNYA

We are still waiting for confirmation of Navalny's death in prison, but nobody can think of any reason for Russia to post fake news about that, so most likely he's dead. Some think his death was timed to coincide with other events, like his wife speaking. She almost cancelled the speaking engagement because of her grief, but decided to keep it, despite her husband's death, thinking that's what her dead husband would want her to do.

She said Putin will face justice for her husband's death.
Back in 2021, Biden said to Putin that the consequences for Russia would be devastating if Navalny died in the state's care, though I'm still wondering what exactly Navalny's wife or Biden are going to do about it, if anything other than talk.

This video covers the remarks of Navalny's wife, and later covers what Biden said in 2021 would happen if Navalny died.

Alexey Navalny's wife fires back at Putin after prison says Navalny died

I suppose this could be relevant to the war if it somehow affects Putin. Time will tell what if anything is done about this. Even if the investigation into Navalny's death claims he died of natural causes or something, it would be hard to take any such report at face value after he's already survived two assassination attempts. If you haven't seen the Navalny video, it's worth watching. Navalny impersonated the boss of the team that tried to kill him and got them to confess to the assassination attempt, all documented on the video.

Here's a clip from that video, where he apparently anticipated Putin would have him killed, which doesn't seem very speculative after two assassination attempts. It's only 43 seconds long, encouraging people to take his death as a sign that Putin is scared of him and the people who want change, so they should realize their power and act. If only....

Navalny - Official Clip - Alexei Navalny's Final Message


That was just posted 6 hours ago!

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

You can't polish a turd.

You're correct, Carp, but some people try!

Cheers

16 February Update

Ukrainian forces have begun to withdraw from Avdiivka, and Russian forces appear to be focused on complicating or preventing a complete Ukrainian withdrawal.

Germany and France both signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine on February 16. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a long-term bilateral security agreement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on February 16 providing for bilateral cooperation in the military, political, financial, and humanitarian spheres until 2034.

The Russian reaction to the reported death of imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny on February 16 was relatively muted.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
I suppose this could be relevant to the war if it somehow affects Putin. Time will tell what if anything is done about this. Even if the investigation into Navalny's death claims he died of natural causes or something, it would be hard to take any such report at face value after he's already survived two assassination attempts. If you haven't seen the Navalny video, it's worth watching. Navalny impersonated the boss of the team that tried to kill him and got them to confess to the assassination attempt, all documented on the video.

You forgot posting this gem showing Navalny himself comparing immigrants to cockroaches and holding a gun pretending to shoot one?

m.youtube.com...

While 10s of thousands of Ukrainians are currently celebrating his death. Yet watching Biden’s media trying to spin it as he was some westernized puppet hero now.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: sapien1982
ive been watching a few youtuber guys who use geolocation to update their maps and discuss the ongoing conflict

im not sure where they sit personally on the war but they do seem to be giving unbiased reports as far as I can tell , happy to be corrected

HistoryLegends , WillyOAM, civ div , and russian dude

here is history legends update on the battle for Avdiivka

I don't see how you can stand to watch his histrionics. His channel should be called histrionics legends instead of history legends. He's the guy who for 6 months, over and over again, kept saying Bakhmut is going to fall any day now. Well actually it took something like 8 months for Russia to take it. so if you don't mind him being 6 months off on his "any day now" predictions, go for it.

But his whole style to me is completely appalling, because he acts like he knows more than the commanders on the front lines do about what's going on at the front lines. Obviously, he doesn't, since Bakhmut actually fell 6 months after he was saying "any day now". He's sort of doing the same thing with Avdiivka, which like Bakmut, will eventually fall, but that doesn't mean it's as imminent as his video suggests. The question is whether Ukraine can hold on to Avdiivka until after the Russian elections are over. My take is they would like to do their withdrawal after the elections, if they can hang on that long, and Putin of course wants to take Avdiivka before the elections. It's not like it will influence who actually gets elected, it will be Putin either way, but if he takes Avdiivka before the elections, they may show additional support for him and Ukraine doesn't want that to happen. I really can't predict whether Ukraine can hold on to Avdiivka until the Russian elections or not, war is sometimes unpredictable.
TheRussianDude is somewhat biased against Russia even though he's Russian. He's sort of exiled from Russia because he was anti-war with Ukraine and that's illegal in Russia now. I think he's in Canada, or was. I watched his video yesterday and the title was kind of click-baity saying Russians surrendered in Robotyne. But when you actually watched the video, then he talked about an unconfirmed claim that one Russian soldier may have surrendered, which to me is not really significant enough to make it into the title of the video, though he can certainly mention unconfirmed rumors if he wants.

The Deep State maps are I think intentionally delayed by some time so are more likely to show the territories and gray zones as they were a day or two ago, and not necessarily how they are today. But with that caveat I think they are reasonably close to being accurate. Even if they wanted a current map, there is enough back and forth swapping of territory possession that it's difficult to keep track of that on a real time basis. I prefer the youtubers who matter of factly go over the deep state and similar maps and show what territories have been gained or lost by either side recently, in a matter of fact way, without all the histrionics.

Well that escalated quickly.

Avdiivka, apparently now back to known as “Avdeevka” didn’t last as long as Bakhmut.

Which is shocking how quick the breakdown happened past days in Avdeevka.

Have you checked the maps today? The advance is pretty crazy.

Elon Musk friend or foe ?


Glasnost Gone X

Is Elon Musk a useful idiot Russian propagandist? Things Elon Musk HAS NEVER done.

1: Condemned Russia's invasion of #Ukraine.
2: Called for the withdrawal of Russian forces from sovereign Ukrainian territory.
3: Criticised Putin actions - either on Ukraine or his systematic crushing of free speech in Russia etc.
4: Took part in any broadcast discussion event with pro-Ukrainian people.
5: Shared, promoted or boosted "Interesting," any account detailing Russian forces atrocities, including the rape, kidnapping & torture of Ukrainian children & the wholesale destruction of hundreds of Ukrainian villages, towns and cities.
6: Visited Ukraine.
7: Contacted president Zelensky to hear Ukraine's side of the war - or promoted Zelensky's many speeches made around the world.

Things Elon Musk HAS DONE.

1: Routinely ridiculed & demeaned in the most disgusting fashion, Ukraine's president Zelensky.
2: Promoted the blatant Russian propaganda lie, that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is no big deal, with little fighting (or videos) - compared to #Israel.
3: Taken part in broadcast discussion events with anti-Ukraine people - who like Musk urge US politicians not to aid Ukraine and who spread blatant untruths & disinformation about Ukraine.
4: Stopped a Ukrainian military drone attack on Russian occupied #Crimea (sovereign Ukrainian territory), by cutting off internet access via #Starlink.
5: Heavily promoted softball interviews with Putin - thereby giving him a platform to spread disinformation about Ukraine & Western countries including the US.
6: Routinely promoted Russian propagandists & useful idiots on this platform who spread disinformation about Ukraine. 7: Allowed this platform to become infested with Russian trolls. 8: Allowed banned Russian propagandists back on this platform, including those who're sanctioned.

Maksym Borodin X

What Musk has done since buying Twitter:

- he unblocked all anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists, Russian propagandists and Russian official media - all huge accounts of influencers with millions of followers;
- destroyed the system of control and verification of fake information (Community notes work very selectively and in an extremely small part of lies) and even if there is a community note, lies still continue to be broadcast in the feed;
- systematically raises hundreds of thousands of views with his comments of all liars and propagandists (as an example, Tucker Carlson);
- provided a very easy opportunity for liars and propagandists to make money from lies, fakes and propaganda - in a system where there is no punishment for outright lies and propaganda, the false posts themselves gain millions of views. That is, in such a system, the more and cynically you lie, the more money you earn from views as a content creator.

He is not stupid. And it was a consistent and well thought out plan for helping Russia.

originally posted by: Imhere
You forgot posting this gem showing Navalny himself comparing immigrants to cockroaches and holding a gun pretending to shoot one?

m.youtube.com...

What do you mean I forgot it? Navalny making some kind of parody wasn't my point, the point was how Putin either kills, exiles, or otherwise incapacitates any rivals who may threaten his hold on power in Russia.

The platform Navalny was known for was anti-corruption, and making life better for ordinary Russians, because he wanted the corrupt bureaucrats in Russia to steal less money from the people. He exposed the sinfully lavish multiple palaces Putin either owned or put up his love interests in. I never heard him portrayed as any hero of the West, though I never heard him say he had aspirations to restore the soviet union, unlike Putin who laments the fall of the soviet union publicly.

What's Navalny doing with a gun anyway? I thought it was illegal for Russians to own guns?

Anyway Putin's corrupt regime has had its benefits for Ukraine. Remember that huge convoy of Russian vehicles that was heading toward Kyiv in the early days of the invasion? Thanks to corruption in the Russian military, the fuel that was supposed to supply those vehicles was sold on the black market in Belarus, and they ran out of gas before they got to Kyiv!

If it weren't for that corruption, who knows what would have happened in Kyiv, if that column had fuel and kept advancing? The outcome might have been different.

But now that Russian military spending is something like 7% of GDP compared to a little over 2% in 2021, that huge increase is really bad news for Ukraine as I already predicted here in previous posts. Even with corruption, the effects of all that spending are being seen on the battlefield, like Ukraine being pummelled with 60 glide bomb attacks in one day in Avdiivka, some of those landing on Russians in friendly fire incidents.

The double whammy is that not only has Russian military support been greatly ramped up, but Ukraine's allies are falling short on supporting Ukraine, with the EU way behind on deliveries of artillery shells, and the US basically has cut off support in 2024 since it can't get the military aid bill past Trump's minions.

originally posted by: Imhere
Have you checked the maps today? The advance is pretty crazy.

Yes, I usually monitor the maps daily, including today. The claims of the number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded to make those gains are very high, I wonder if they are true? If they are anywhere near close, even Russia doesn't have enough people to keep up that rate of loss in taking territory from Ukraine.

This was an interesting look at anti-drone practice.

Ukraine is using a network made up of thousands of acoustic sensors across the country to help detect and track incoming Russian kamikaze drones, alert traditional air defenses in advance, and also dispatch ad hoc drone hunting teams to shoot them down.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I think Ukraine will endure a dry patch regarding armaments supplies but that the situation will improve. The EU has belatedly realized it has to do more. The USA will likely provide more assistance, but there are domestic politics being sorted in a highly ideological environment ... which means delays.

Artillery expenditure rates in modern trench warfare are high.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yes quite interesting ...

I just saw news that several countries will help develope AI to be used in Ukrainian drones......but i lost the source. If i see it again i try to post it .


Edit : Media: Western countries developing UAVs with artificial intelligence for Ukraine

Allies plan to arm Ukraine with thousands of AI drones

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2
Possibly all true, but it's rough for Ukraine in the meantime when supplies are low. They can't even mount a full defense, they have to ration the supplies they have with the knowledge that there's not a conveyor line of replacements coming as fast as they need.

I think it's not just artillery shells, but also missiles for the air defense systems, which are in short supply and very expensive to replace for some systems.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
This was an interesting look at anti-drone practice.

That is interesting, thanks for sharing. It's another example of how drones are changing modern warfare.
I didn't know acoustic sensing was making a comeback, but I guess the E-7s are a ways off, so acoustic sensing makes sense until they have a more sophisticated replacement. I don't know if even the E-7s can detect those cardboard drones Ukraine used, I haven't heard much about those lately.

17 February Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down three Russian fighter aircraft—two Su-34s and one Su-35—over Donetsk Oblast on February 17, likely having committed scarce air defense assets to help cover the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka.

Russian authorities arrested several hundred demonstrators on February 17 amid slightly larger demonstrations responding to imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny’s death.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
17 February Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down three Russian fighter aircraft—two Su-34s and one Su-35—over Donetsk Oblast on February 17, likely having committed scarce air defense assets to help cover the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka.

Russian authorities arrested several hundred demonstrators on February 17 amid slightly larger demonstrations responding to imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny’s death.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast

More at URL above.

Cheers

-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have established “full control” over Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast as Russian forces continued to advance in the settlement on February 17, and Ukrainian forces have likely withdrawn from Avdiivka.

edit on 18-2-2024 by Imhere because: (no reason given)