Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Arbitrageur


Yes i see , but did you know that the Starlink satellite coverage is virtually global , meaning it can work in countries that the starlink map says it wont ...

So keeping in that mind, can we be sure starlink not working in Russia , it seems to work in Iran and other places where starlink map says it cant.

Using Starlink In Unsupported Countries

in South Africa they do this :

South Africans find creative way to access Starlink, as other African countries connect officially

Elon Musk’s Starlink now available in South Africa — but there is a catch

a reply to: Kenzo
Starlink could easily disable that mobile service in South Africa if they wanted to, but I don't see much incentive for them to do that.

They should have incentive to disable it in Russia.

As you may know Ukraine wanted to use starlink for connecting to drones going to crimea.
If coverage was really global and all they had to do was use that mobile service, I suspect they would have done it.
But, unlike S Africa where the service is not actually blocked, I think it's actually blocked in Russia, and crimea, using "geofencing".

So I think the reports of Russians using it are in the areas on the map circled in red, which are Ukraine territories occupied by Russians, and in which starlink is enabled. I don't think that mobile service trick will work in Russia.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

OK, hopefully that is the case , that they cant use it other than those areas you marked .

I dont know the technical details the of starlink so much .

It looks like Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries have had an impact:

Russia bans gasoline exports for 6 months from March 1

Russia on Tuesday ordered a six-month ban on gasoline exports from March 1 to keep prices stable amid rising demand from consumers and farmers and to allow for maintenance of refineries in the world's second largest oil exporter.

Russia just had a three month ban on gasoline exports for "maintenance", so I think the word "maintenance" in this article includes repairing the damage caused by Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries, but Russia doesn't want to admit that.

Russia and Ukraine have targeted each other's energy infrastructure in a bid to disrupt supply lines and logistics and demoralise their opponents, as they seek the edge in a nearly two-year-old conflict that shows no sign of ending...

Last year, Russia banned gasoline exports between September and November in order to tackle high domestic prices and shortages.

Russia's revenue from gasoline exports is only a fraction of what it is for oil exports, but every bit of Russian income that's reduced should slow down the funding of their war effort.

Also, the west is trying to do a better job of policing the sanctions and caps on Russian oil exports, to reduce that larger source of Russian funding.

News report that Ukraine downed 3 Su-34 Fighter-Bombers today ..


At this rate , Russia would loose hundreds planes in one year . They seem to take now high risk to support ground troops with glide bombs .

28 February Update

Congress of Transnistrian Deputies adopted seven decisions, including a request to the Russian State Duma and Federation Council for Russian “defense” of Transnistria in response to alleged increasing pressures from Moldova.

A Russian Telegram user who claims to be an employee of an unspecified branch of Russian special services reported that a Ukrainian HIMARS strike hit a gathering of personnel of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) during a military awards ceremony in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast on the night of February 27. The Russian source claimed that the strike killed 19, including the deputy brigade commander, a major, and a captain, and wounded 12, including brigade commander Colonel Mikhail Gudkov.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Oh I agree this war is hurting the Russians. Problem is they are willing to take a lot of pain to win this war. At the 2 year mark I've realized Ukraine can't win the best they can hope for is to negotiate a good deal.

Now this negotiation has already cost Ukraine more than you can imagine. They have lost over a million people to flight as Ukrainians flee war zones. Entire cities have been leveled to scrap and currently unlivable. They have lost 31000 soldiers with many more being wounded and missing limbs. As long as Putin is willing to throw Russian bodies at Ukraine then Ukraine can't win.

Now here's what changed I look ar the death and destruction in Ukraine and then realized all they are trying to do is negotiate a settlement. They can't possibly manufacture enough to keep up with Russia. They also do not have the population to continue to sustain these losses. Like it or not if Putin is willing to except the losses he eventually will win.

So is destroying Ukraine worth the bloody nose to Putin? Someone needs to get in there get these 2 talking and negotiate a peace treaty now. If you wait there will not be anything left if Ukraine in 5 years. Any damage to the Russians have already been done at this point there is nothing else you can do to hurt them. We're out of sanctions were out of shells it's already going to take the US years to replace the shells in our own inventory.

And sadly we see that artillery battles are the key to winning this war. I think early victories created a false hope that a country a tenth of the size of Russia could win. As we see winning has become impossible. So the status changed to creating a draw. Then when it was realized that wasn't sustainable now we just watch Ukraine getting weaker as the Russians grow stronger


I know this won't be a popular view with many but how many people must die only to have to negotiate a settlement anyway?

a reply to: dragonridr

I think you're right that Ukraine has no chance of winning this war, at least without the NATO direct intervention. And in my opinion, this is what Ukrainians counted on. I remember their numerous appeals to extend the NATO air defence to them in the beginning of the war. Peace settlement was never an option on either side. Because seriously, Putin pisses on all the settlements. He got Crimea in 2014 and it didn't stop him. Even if miraculously Ukraine negotiates peace with Putin and cedes some land to Russia, he will attack again. And for sure as hell, he won't be waiting 8 years this time as he knows very well he will kick the bucket sooner.

Now, the same scenario can be repeated in Moldova. Transnistria, just like Donbas earlier, has asked Russia for help so let's grab some popcorn.

I don't know if you watched Putin's speech today. He hardly mentioned Ukraine but a lot was said about the US and its "satellites" trying to destroy Russia, about NATO expansion to Sweden and Finland and the need to push more military into the Western regions of Russia. And the usual nuclear threats. No matter how irresponsible and thoughtless one judges Macron's words about "not excluding the possibility of sending NATO troops to Ukraine" to be, this was the declaration of one person. The official NATO statement would be sufficient for a reasonable country leader but not for the one who needs an excuse for confrontation.

That guy has lost his f*cking mind. He's at war not with just Ukraine but with the whole Western world already. At least, this is what he himself keeps saying over and over again.

a reply to: dragonridr

I know this won't be a popular view with many but how many people must die only to have to negotiate a settlement anyway?

That's the serious issue. Any dealings with Putin wouldn't be worth the paper they're on.

The only way to guarantee a peace deal would work is the acceptance of Ukraine as a NATO member and Russia will never allow that. Either way an arms race ensues between Ukraine and Russia and both sides have already demonstrated just how dirty they can get.

Short of Putin's death or a true threat to Russia what is going to force them to the negotiation table?

a reply to: RAY1990

AGREE. Putin will not negotiate, unless we support Ukraine enough to hold on, and, Biden wins.

Putin's goal is the erasure of Ukraine as a nation and a people.
The only possible negotiated settlement to him would be a rump landlocked state of western Ukraine.

a reply to: dragonridr

The big problem for Ukrainians with surrender is that they will face genocide or continuously terror/torture murdering them.

They allready see what Russians did there, Bucha etc....Russian set up a lot torture chambers where they torture/kill Ukrainians....

That`s not life anymore...it`s living hell.

It was same WW2 when red army soldiers entered Poland and Germany , raped woman there...

And Russians would go to revenge , and kill many...

Surrender is wrong term maybe but, since cant trust Russians, they start the massacre again and again even when they would sign deal, nobody can trust them...

a reply to: Kenzo

Yes. The question for them is, do we want to be conquered and subjugated by a murderous dictator and have no sovereign Country and be oppressed by another State, or not?

Tricky one, eh?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2


If i would be in Ukrainian boots.....i would rather die in the battlefield than let the M#kkers do their sadistic terror to everyone .

originally posted by: BustedBoomer
a reply to: RAY1990

AGREE. Putin will not negotiate, unless we support Ukraine enough to hold on, and, Biden wins.

Putin's goal is the erasure of Ukraine as a nation and a people.
The only possible negotiated settlement to him would be a rump landlocked state of western Ukraine.

Hold on for what? How much money are we going to spend just to have Russia win. We could give ukraine the entire US defense budget and they would still lose. They just dont have the people to throw away that Russia does. The only way this outcome changes is if the US and NATO send troops. And once that step is taken its very likely WW3 either has started or will start.

So here is the options for Ukraine continue to fight with more of their youth dying more of their cities leveled to the ground. And eventually lose but not until kyiv and every other major city is flattened. Or they can negotiate some sort of deal where they get to keep most of what they own now. And rebuild their battered nation. They will get lots of assistance I have no doubt. Now people want to say Putin will just break his word maybe but in reality what choice do they have. Worst case scenario is they are right back where they are now. In a war.

I've come to the conclusion that the west is just causing needless deaths at this point on both sides. We need to seriously look at why we are funding a group we know can't win. And if that in itself isn't causing a lot of deaths. Now don't get me wrong I think sanctions need to remain and by all means Russia should be punished for their actions. However that doesn't alleviate the damage done to Ukraine only to have all outcomes end up the same. They will lose.

Sorry I just watched some videos I probably should not have and I'm just tired of seeing people die. Peace everyone

a reply to: dragonridr

And once that step is taken its very likely WW3 either has started or will start.

Not at all. This is the crap propagated by the weakling, Biden (in that he's not that much different from the chest beating monkey Trump), eunuch Stoltenberg and the EU clowns. The WW3 will be if this psycho isn't stopped. Raining bombs on Russians the moment they crossed the Ukraine's border would definitely stop them.

And what would Putler do? Nuke New York, Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, London etc and have the whole Russia swept away from the surface of the earth in return? Maybe... if he wasn't such a coward permanently trembling for his dear life.

Here's a thing. He's scared of assassination attempts. Nobody can come too close to him. Maximum security measures. Totally paranoid, afraid of his own shadow, terrified of death. He was freaking because of Covid, an imaginary illness, to the point he met his guests over 20 feet long table. And I'm to believe that he's not afraid of a nuclear apocalypse? That he will just sit there pushing the red button and calmly wait for "the day after"?

Bulls**t.

originally posted by: twistedpuppy
a reply to: dragonridr

And once that step is taken its very likely WW3 either has started or will start.

Not at all. This is the crap propagated by the weakling, Biden (in that he's not that much different from the chest beating monkey Trump), eunuch Stoltenberg and the EU clowns. The WW3 will be if this psycho isn't stopped. Raining bombs on Russians the moment they crossed the Ukraine's border would definitely stop them.

And what would Putler do? Nuke New York, Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, London etc and have the whole Russia swept away from the surface of the earth in return? Maybe... if he wasn't such a coward permanently trembling for his dear life.

Here's a thing. He's scared of assassination attempts. Nobody can come too close to him. Maximum security measures. Totally paranoid, afraid of his own shadow, terrified of death. He was freaking because of Covid, an imaginary illness, to the point he met his guests over 20 feet long table. And I'm to believe that he's not afraid of a nuclear apocalypse? That he will just sit there pushing the red button and calmly wait for "the day after"?

Bulls**t.

Limit the Coca-Cola and caffeine kids. ^

29 February Update

Ukrainian forces downed three more Su-34 fighter aircraft in eastern Ukraine on February 28 and 29. Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk reported on February 29 that Ukrainian forces destroyed two Su-34 aircraft on the night of February 28 to 29 and another Su-34 on the morning of February 29 in the Mariupol and Avdiivka directions.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a threat to Armenian security as Russian officials refused to acknowledge Armenia’s reduced participation in the CSTO. Pashinyan stated on February 28 that the CSTO is creating security problems instead of fulfilling its obligations to Armenia and that the CSTO’s “lack of an answer” regarding its responsibilities to Armenia “creates a threat” to Armenia’s “security and territorial integrity.”

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amid continued positional engagements along the frontline on February 29.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: dragonridr

So we shouldn't supply Ukraine weapons because it's too expensive, you do know we're enriching our most profitable aspects of our economies whilst we do that? Lots and lots of jobs...

We definitely shouldn't provide "boots on the ground" but people are coming round to just how serious Russia is and the potential of a nation willing to throw it's own lives away for territorial gain. Let's not forget Russia has signed the same treaties...

We definitely shouldn't encourage the use of Western weapons being used in Russia despite the evidence of just how effective they could be, even in the hands of Ukrainians.

So what options is there? I only see 2

Arm Ukraine with nuclear weapons and start a nuclear arms race 2.0

Or

Summon the inevitable and start WWIII. Either by forcing Russia into it's own borders or killing Putin and allow Russia to attempt to fix itself.

Does anyone see any other viable options because I don't. I understand both of those options are ridiculous yet at the same time a Ukrainian will most likely choose death today than make a deal with a Russian who'll most likely kill them tomorrow, I don't believe I'm speculating by saying that. The status quo is the best option because it's the safest.

Sucks doesn't it?

originally posted by: dragonridr
Someone needs to get in there get these 2 talking and negotiate a peace treaty now.

Ukraine already made an agreement with Russia: We'll give you all our nukes for your assurances in writing that you won't attack us, and assurances from the US and UK that they will be our allies if we are attacked.

Any so called treaty wouldn't have any more meaning than that Budapest memorandum that Putin used for toilet paper and flushed down his golden toilet.

If you wait there will not be anything left if Ukraine in 5 years.

I suppose we will know in 5 years how it played out. Anyway it's Ukraine's decision whether they want to keep fighting, or try to get a worthless treaty from Putin that they know he will break the next time he wakes up on the other side of the bed.

Trump says he can solve the conflict in one tay by proposing a settlement but I don't believe there is anything he can propose that will be acceptable to both sides.

originally posted by: RAY1990
a reply to: dragonridr
That's the serious issue. Any dealings with Putin wouldn't be worth the paper they're on.

Right. Zelensky said he won't negotiate with Putin for that reason, but if someone else was in charge of Russia, negotiating would be on the table.

Short of Putin's death or a true threat to Russia what is going to force them to the negotiation table?

Putin might agree to a cease fire, but Zelensky thinks it would only be a ploy to buy time while Russia recruits and trains more soldiers, so he can do this:

originally posted by: BustedBoomer
a reply to: RAY1990

AGREE. Putin will not negotiate, unless we support Ukraine enough to hold on, and, Biden wins.

Putin's goal is the erasure of Ukraine as a nation and a people.
The only possible negotiated settlement to him would be a rump landlocked state of western Ukraine.

Right.
Putin is probably also eyeing Moldova and Georgia where "his people need his help", the same excuse Hitler used.

originally posted by: dragonridr
Hold on for what? How much money are we going to spend just to have Russia win. We could give ukraine the entire US defense budget and they would still lose.

Ukraine was defending themselves pretty well when they had US support. Now that the US isn't supporting them, they started losing ground. The US 2024 budget calls for $300 billion support for Ukraine, which is about 1/3 of the US defense budget and double the $140 billion Russian war budget for 2024, that Russia is having a hard time coming up with due to sanctions being at least partially effective, and we see they banned gasoline exports for 6 months so that's another hit to their income, that shows everything is not OK in Russia.

Now people want to say Putin will just break his word maybe but in reality what choice do they have. Worst case scenario is they are right back where they are now. In a war.

The worst case scenario is that Putin will use the cease fire to accumulate more forces and material that will be harder for Ukraine to defend against. So Zelensky is thinking it's better to keep fighting and not give Russia that chance, but he needs that $300 billion support that's already in the budget, the lawmakers just need to break the immigration deadlock and release it.

The Ukrainian sea drones are upgraded.

-They can carry a load of up to 860 kg!
-The range of use has increased to 950 km.


Ukraine made the naval drones sinking Russian warships 'deadlier' by arming them with bigger warheads, general says

This is bad news for Russia ...