Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Kenzo

Wouldn't surprise me if Musk is playing both sides. He is stateless, like all the super-wealthy.

Treasonous elements in U.S. politics. Hmm. There are a lot of ignorant people, but I think the real danger as far as treason goes are those beholden to Beijing.

I know Europeans are frustrated with American politics at the moment, but it bears mentioning that the USA has provided a nuclear umbrella over, first western, and then, western and central Europe since the 1940s. European politicians rather conveniently forget about those entire decades of support when they complain about people like Trump. At the moment, the "more EU!" element in Germany is trying to set the narrative that the USA is entirely to blame (somehow) for the failures of EU nations to properly arm themselves over the last 33 years ... the reason for these claims are to bolster support for the notion of an "EU army" (which won't impress Russia, but whatever.) It is also of note that no U.S. politician IN OFFICE has recommended that Europe be abandoned, but facts rarely inform the bombast of EU politicians.

Cheers

a reply to: Imhere

How many more “pyrrhic victories” are you going to count?

I don't need to count any of them since I'm not the one trying to convince others that 20th century warfare with 19th century statistics is acceptable.

Perhaps it’s time to take a chair to sit down. And reevaluate your expectations in the situation going forward.

Already sitting unlike 16 of your generals who happen to be permanently laying down. Re-evaluate what exactly? I'm not the one expecting the public to support 100s of 1000s dead whilst feeding on the bs that is Russian superiority.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2


People like John Bolton, who was near Trump thinks that Trump really had desire to pull US out from NATO, or at least start going to that direction, allmost doing it earlyer 2018 .

My interpretation is the whole " you gotta pay " may be just excuse to have something to have as reason....the real reason being that Trump wants US out NATO .

There is six-fold increase from 2014 that NATO members use GDP to defense , and 2024 it`s 2/3 that pay at least the target...Germany is expected to meet the target this year also .

Around 20 NATO countries set to hit spending target in 2024

More than half of NATO countries hit defense spending target

I have no clear picture about the EU army, i dont see much discussion about it ...so all i know NATO is highly appreciated organization , and i also think Europeans also appreciate the work US has done all the way from 1940s to this day . But you may know better details central European current atmosphere , or Germanys than i here more up North .

I genuinely see that GOP is compromised , but that`s just my humble opinion .

a reply to: Imhere

"Milosevic or not, you don’t rip a heart out of a country like that. And give it to recent influx of undocumented and many Muslim extermists.

Which Serbia pleaded about, yet NATO bombed Serbia for 72days in 99’.


You seem to forget about the little matter of genocide and war crimes.

a reply to: Kenzo

Well, as far as compromised goes, the USA is not the only country with problems. Any EU country has the same problems if they have politicians who look first to Brussels before the interests of their own people ... and there are a bunch of EU politicians like that. It is all well and good when the EU approves of the government a country has ... but otherwise, watch out.

In the USA, I'm sure both major parties have compromised members ... compromised to whoever, not only China and Russia.

"You gotta pay" is an argument that reflects the way a lot of Americans feel. Fair or not, they feel like too many European countries were freeloaders at the expense of American taxpayers. It IS good the Germans are finally putting more money toward defense, but the root of these discussions are the 34+ years that have gone by since the Wall fell. For a while, Germany was not only not paying enough, but they were cutting deals with Russia that seriously compromised the energy security of the rest of Europe. That situation could not continue, and because no German politician had (whatever it takes) to decide to cut back on that relationship, someone made the decision for Germany and blew the NORDSTREAM pipelines.

US politics-- Bolton is "swamp" to the extreme and intensely dislikes Trump because Trump has a populist base of voters.

Big picture: The major powers set up a "new world order" in 1945 to keep the peace, if nowhere else, in Europe. The trouble is, that situation got blown away in 1989, and since then, no one, West or Russia, has had any positive vision of how to develop or where to go as a society. So, what, 35 years now since the Fall of the Wall with no overarching guidance for entire parts of the world ? The questions brought up now by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Trump's badgering of certain European powers are the consequences of world "leaders" having been out to lunch for over a third of a century.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

The vast majority of us here sort of agree with the initial point Trump made about some NATO countries not pulling their weight with regards Defence Budget spending.
It was the claim that he would actively encourage Russia to invade these nations that offended and angered people.

It undoubtedly shows his lack of commitment to NATO which should be a worrying concern for all of us.

Despite warnings from some of us many people believed the EU spiel that Russia no longer posed a threat and yes, many had come far too reliant on US support. But to walk away from NATO would be insanity. Surely if ever there was a time to actually strengthen and bolster NATO its now?

An EU Army is one of the craziest ideas ever to come out of the obscenity that is the EU. It would ultimately strip all individual nations of the ability to defend themselves.
I haven't heard or read much about the idea of an EU Army for a while but to be fair since Brexit we don't hear much at all about EU proposals any more unless the UK is directly involved.

NATO nations need to start paying their fair share and Trump needs to stop spouting #e and try to think before he speaks - I suspect neither will happen but the former is probably more likely than the latter.

a reply to: Freeborn

The idea of an EU army is just insane.

Thank goodness for Brexit in that regard, at least.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Yeeh absolutely all countries should pay and make more fair game . Germany was in bed with Russia earlyer which was grand mistake...now Hungary is doing it with Orban .

But if Trump continues the talk, i think it means he is serious then . Cui bono ? Russia , and we been hearing how Trump praises Putin / Russia .

a reply to: RAY1990

I remember when there was a credible threat that the Soviet army would roll through Germany.

The current lot seem incapable of "rolling" anywhere.

Static trench warfare like in WW1 with thousands of casualties for every foot of land gained.

Still no air superiority.

Truly sad, and horrible.

Russian assault squads planted the Russian flag 70 meters from the Avdiivka entrance sign where Zelensky filmed a video in December.

Confirming their advances in the North of Avdiivka.

Russian assault squads planted the Russian flag 70 meters from the Avdiivka entrance sign where Zelensky filmed a video in December.

Confirming their advances in the North of Avdiivka.

a reply to: Imhere

At what cost?

You won't like this, but it would only be a Pyrrhic "victory". The place is a pile of rubble.

You up for a mature discussion about your Black Sea fleet or do you only post about alleged "victories" for Russia?

‘A lot higher than we expected’: Russian arms production worries Europe’s war planners'

Moscow has massively ramped up its industry, giving it advantages in Ukraine and leading to a redistribution of wealth. s Ukraine has scrambled to source ammunition, arms and equipment for its defence, Russia has presided over a massive ramping up of industrial production over the last two years that has outstripped what many western defence planners expected when Vladimir Putin launched his invasion.

Total defence spending has risen to an estimated 7.5% of Russia’s GDP, supply chains have been redesigned to secure many key inputs and evade sanctions, and factories producing ammunition, vehicles and equipment are running around the clock, often on mandatory 12-hour shifts with double overtime, in order to sustain the Russian war machine for the foreseeable future.

The transformation has put defence at the centre of Russia’s economy. Putin claimed this month that 520,000 new jobs had been created in the military-industrial complex, which now employs an estimated 3.5 million Russians, or 2.5% of the population. Machinists and welders in Russian factories producing war equipment are now making more money than many white-collar managers and lawyers, according to a Moscow Times analysis of Russian labour data in November. www.theguardian.com...

Avdiivka is now officially a broiler for trapped UA troops, as Russian forces secured “road of life” (as mentioned yesterday)

Now, Maps even on “ISW” are showing something sinister.
As all roads in and out of Avdiika are cut and in Russian fire control.

Apparently the Ukrainian 3rd assault brigade (AZOV) was deployed now to try to unblock Avdiivka.

Which is one of their best. Going to be interesting what they can do.


Right now, Avdiivka is a broiler with some of the hardest, embattled and experienced UA forces trapped there now.

Mind you Avdiivka is also hailed as one of Ukraine’s most fortified areas and is/was one of their pride fortifications.

a reply to: Imhere
The fighting in Avdiivka is fierce. Russia is dropping so many bombs on Avdiivka and some of them are not that accurate and are hitting Russian soldiers, but do you think Putin cares about the Russians getting killed by their own bombs?

Frontli ne report: Ukrainian defenses hold as Avdiivka faces up to 60 Russian airstrikes in one day

Ukrainian fighters reported that Russian forces conducted up to sixty glide bomb strikes on Ukrainian positions just over the past day, just inside the town. Ukrainian soldiers noted that due to the dynamic nature of fighting, some of these bombs fell on Russian soldiers, but the Russian commanders did not care.

After the arrival of the reinforcements of the third assault brigade from Ukraine, there has been some back and forth in who controls what territory in Avdiivka:

According to the latest available combat footage, Ukrainian fighters from the third assault brigade used Bradleys to attack Russian forces and pushed them away from the road by more than one hundred fifty meters.

The Ukrainian commander of the famous 110th brigade that has been fighting in Avdiivka non-stop for two years stated that they felt a tangible relief once the help from the third brigade arrived. Even though Russian sources are already celebrating the encirclement of the town, a Ukrainian fighter from the 24th battalion said not to take everything at face value, as the situation is very dynamic with a lot of back-and-forth. He also added that Ukrainian low-level commanders are “neither stupid nor spineless” and would not allow the high command to just leave them to be encircled.

The fact that Ukrainian soldiers actively defend the decision of Higher Command, even more than during the Battle for Bakhmut, indicates that there is a plan that they do not hurry to reveal. It seems like Ukrainians are waiting until Russians exhaust their reserves to make a move, and with an average of six hundred forty-five killed Russian troops per day just in Avdiivka, they may not need to wait for long.

I guess Ukraine figures as long as they are killing 645 Russians per day, they are making some progress in their goal to exhaust Russian reserves. But there does seem to be some risk of encirclement, hopefully the Ukraine soldiers confidence that their commanders will pull them out before they get encircled is well placed.

Up until a week or two ago, Ukraine was destroying the Russian advances trying to move toward Avdiivka. But some things allowed the Russians to advance, aside from the huge numbers. One is that both Ukraine and Russia now claim to have "invisibility cloaks" which are so named because they can hide a heat signature from infrared cameras as the soldiers move at night. The previous Russian invisibility cloaks were less than effective but the new cloaks apparently work better. So now Ukraine needs motion sensors but I don't know how well those will work at detecting troop movements at night. Are there motion sensors that can work at drone distances? Seems like motion sensors need to be a lot closer than thermal cameras, to work effectively, though I am no expert in this area.

One youtuber who is helping Ukraine with drones said the advancement of drone technology is on a rapid cycle in this war. Ukraine will come up with an advancement that gives them an edge over Russia, but it's only helpful for 2 months until Russia figures out how to counter it, then Ukraine needs to come up with a new enhancement or edge, then 2 months later the Russians figure out how to defeat that, and the cycle repeats.

Another factor besides the tech is the weather. The Ukrainian drones that were being used to stop the Russian advances apparently can't fly effectively in foggy conditions, and several days of foggy conditions allowed significant Russian advances without the drones destroying them as usual.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Ukraine allready have the glsdb, which are in my opinion really good and accuracy great , maybe they could be used to help Avdiivka area situation ?

The situation is really hard in Avdiivka .

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: Arbitrageur

Ukraine allready have the G'___'Bs , which are in my opinion really good and accuracy great , maybe they could be used to help Avdiivka area situation ?

The situation is really hard in Avdiivka .

Is there anyway they could gather more of the 3rd battalion etc with (AZOV) to go in there?

Like all of them?

They need to help unblock Avdiivka as much as possible. Relieve the pressure there etc.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

One youtuber who is helping Ukraine with drones said the advancement of drone technology is on a rapid cycle in this war. Ukraine will come up with an advancement that gives them an edge over Russia, but it's only helpful for 2 months until Russia figures out how to counter it, then Ukraine needs to come up with a new enhancement or edge, then 2 months later the Russians figure out how to defeat that, and the cycle repeats.

Artur Rehi

This guy really does put his money where his mouth is, his donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to Ukraine in drones and military equipment. He should also have a fairly good idea of what he’s talking about since he regularly goes to Ukraine and talks to the people on the front lines. He lives in Estonia and rightfully believes he has an invested interest in this war, since his little country sitting right on the border with Russia will be one of the next to be invaded if we just allow Russia to roll over Ukraine.

Anyway, one of the things I agree with him on is that it’s now time for Ukraine to get out of Avdiivka. The losses Russia has had trying to take it is just mind boggling, even by the most conservative estimates. They now need to just pull back and continue the fight from a more secure defense line.

I think Ukraine wants to hold on to Avdiivka until the elections in Russia. They don't want Vlad to get any election bonuses.

Cheers

15 February Update

Russian forces are conducting a tactical turning movement through Avdiivka likely to create conditions that would force Ukrainian troops to withdraw from their positions in the settlement. Ukrainian forces have yet to fully withdraw from the settlement and continue to prevent Russian forces from making gains that are more significant than the current incremental Russian advances.

Russian forces conducted a relatively larger series of missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of February 14 to 15. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on February 15 that Russian forces launched 12 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles from aircraft based at Engels air base; six Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Voronezh Oblast; two Kalibr cruise missiles from Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai; four Kh-59 guided missiles from occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and Kursk Oblast; and two S-300 guided missiles from Belgorod Oblast at targets in Ukraine.

Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on February 14 that the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted a successful drone strike on the Polyova Oil Depot, and Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit stated that a Ukrainian drone strike caused a fire at the oil depot.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO and Ukraine will create a joint analysis, training, and education center in Poland following the meetings of NATO Defense Ministers in Brussels on February 15.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

More at URL above.

Cheers