Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: dragonridr
I have no idea if he's right or not, he didn't provide any evidence, but youtuber Jake Broe thinks Elon Musk is at least tacitly supporting Russia's use of starlink by not turning it off for the Russian accounts, which as you say, he could do, but only if he knows which accounts are Russian. But I'm not sure either way. Russian FSB could be sneaky, like set up a shell corporation or corporations in the middle east to buy the starlink units and obtain starlink services. I don't know if they are doing that specifically for starlink, but it's not a stretch to hypothesize that, since investigations have shown that Russian FSB is using such shell companies in other countries such as the Maldives, and others, to bypass sanctions in other areas, like obtaining the forbidden integrated circuit chips that are sanctioned.

Here's the episode where Jake Broe says he thinks Elon Musk is complicit in supporting Russia, but I can neither endorse nor falsify his view, the jury is still out for me until there's more evidence either way.

Russia is Not F^%&ing Winning This War


Russia may be gaining a little ground in avdiivka and other areas of the front line, but they seem to be losing the economic war. There's not only the banking issue you mentioned, but the resulting effects of shortages and inflation. This guy Konstantine grew up in the Soviet Union, and remembers the shortages like not being able to buy gasoline. He says those shortages are coming back, Russia is going back to the soviet union days of shortages and price controls, and he thinks inflation will spiral a huge amount, also supporting what your banking link says. It's already a problem, but he says this year it will get worse.

Unfortunately, he says don't expect ordinary Russians to revolt under this oppression, because they are professional sufferers, especially those who suffered through all this in the soviet union, it will be nothing new for the older generation, but the younger generation won't like it and haven't seen it before since they grew up after the soviet union dissolved and haven't seen such shortages.

FOOD LINES, INFLATION, IMPOVERISHMENT | My Predictions For Russia For 2024

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Thanks ! Yeeh this should be investigated indeed .


And why exactly Elon decided to limit the starlink download speed to minimum the the Ukrainian front line ?

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Now Ukraine officially says that Russians are using starlink in front .

The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate confirmed that the Russians now have Starlink terminals at the front. “Yes, cases of use of these devices by Russian occupiers have been recorded. This is beginning to become systemic,” said the department’s press representative Andriy Yusov in his comment to mass media. Earlier, the Ukrainian military reported on social networks about the presence of satellite terminals from Elon Musk’s company in the Russian army. According to one of them, Starlink terminals with activated accounts are massively supplied to Russia through Dubai and operate in the occupied territories. Starlink stated that “SpaceX does not do business of any kind with the Russian Government or its military.” It is impossible to officially import a Starlink terminal to Russia, and the satellite network does not work in the country. But Starlink definitely works in the occupied Ukrainian territories (including Crimea) – this has been confirmed not only by the Ukrainian military, but also by Russian sellers of Starlink terminals. Journalists from the ASTRA telegram channel found several online stores in RuNet offering Starlink satellite terminals with activated accounts at a price of up to 300 thousand rubles (with an Internet subscription fee of $100 per month or more). Apparently, Starlink is sold in Russia specifically for the needs of the military. Thus, one of the Starlink stores also sells Chinese drones, and the other sells gadgets for tuning weapons. In one of the advertisements it is stated in plain text that the terminals are being sold “for the special military operation and new territories.” Photo: 1 - Starlink v2 terminal at the positions of the Russian Armed Forces, screenshot from a publication in Defense One magazine; 2-3 — Starlink boxes on video of Russian volunteers; 4 — Starlink in the Russian online store.

Anton Gerashchenko X

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yeah I don't think people understand Russians prise themselves on hardship. They see it as being tough and withstanding whatever the Russian government asks from them. You will never see the Russians revolt and remove Putin. A coop however may be possible as oligarchs lose what little money they have left. They took huge financial hits and I am sure the support for Putin is wavering.

Continue pressuring them but hurting the Russian people just strengthens their determination. That's why I have little interest in what a typical Russian is forced to endure. What I am interested in is the effects it has on Russian business and the oligarchs.

This move by China makes it almost impossible for foreign trade as Putin said 33 percent of their economy is transactions with the yuan.

10 February Update

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Major General Anatoliy Barhylevych as Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff, replacing Lieutenant General Serhiy Shaptala.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Avdiivka the cemetery of Russian tanks

Since attacking Avdiivka in early October, the Russian 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies have lost 214 tanks that analyst @naalsio26 has counted. Mostly T-72s and T-80s, but also a few high-end T-90s. The Ukrainian brigades in and around Avdiivka meanwhile have lost just 18 tanks. Russian tanks losses just around Avdiivka amount to potentially more than a tenth of all the tanks Russian forces have in Ukraine.

Forbes: Whole Russian Tanks Division Was Phenomenally Destroyed In Battles For Avdiivka

Russia Lost 10 Percent Of Its Deployed Tanks Trying To Capture Avdiivka

a reply to: Kenzo
Russian losses in Avdiivka have been huge, but they lost more tanks than just the tanks in Avdiivka.

In just one month, Russia lost 413 tanks and 30,000 soldiers, a lot of those in Avdiivka. That is unsustainable. Russia can only produce a fraction of that many tanks per month. But it helps explain why they are trying to use 60-70 year old museum pieces like the T-55, lol.

Russia Loses 413 Tanks, Nearly 30,000 Soldiers in One Month: Ukraine

Russia lost more than 400 tanks, 533 artillery systems and nearly 30,000 soldiers in December, according to new figures from Ukraine's military, as the grueling war nears the 2-year mark.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Oh wow! yes unsustainable ...

413 tanks and 30,000 soldiers ...

11 February Update

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander, replacing current Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Satellite imagery dated May 10, 2023, and February 6 and 10, 2024 shows that Russian forces constructed a long line of train cars stretching from occupied Olenivka (south of Donetsk City) to Volnovakha (southeast of Vuhledar and north of Mariupol) over the past nine months. A Ukrainian source reported on February 11 that Russian forces have assembled more than 2,100 freight cars into a 30-kilometer-long train.

Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: dragonridr

What you say is true, of course, about the Russian people.

I have known some Russians, and work with a few, and they are indeed 'tough', and intelligent too - at least the ones I know / have known.

North Americans once were tough like this too, but that kind of cultural toughness probably has ended with the ongoing aging and disappearance of the so-called 'Greatest Generation', unfortunately.

originally posted by: Fowlerstoad
a reply to: dragonridr

What you say is true, of course, about the Russian people.

I have known some Russians, and work with a few, and they are indeed 'tough', and intelligent too - at least the ones I know / have known.

North Americans once were tough like this too, but that kind of cultural toughness probably has ended with the ongoing aging and disappearance of the so-called 'Greatest Generation', unfortunately.

I think the main point is getting lost here, so I will try to clarify. The video says Russians will experience hardships like food lines, shortages, reminiscient of what they endured in the soviet union days. Anybody can survive a hardship like food lines, you eventually get to the end of the line and you don't starve, so it's not really about how tough a person is.

The main point the author of the video was trying to make, is how the Russian people are brainwashed to accept that as their lot in life, while in the meantime Putin and the oligarchs are robbing the people and living in luxurious palaces, Putin has several palaces. So the point is really more about brainwashing, than it is about the ability to endure hardship.

To better understand the point, I suggest watching the video, starting at time 27 minutes, to hear the video of the Russian lady being interviewed.



28:00

As you can see the this lady is retired, or she's getting close to retirement age. She is most likely from the very bottom class
she does not have enough money to have decent living.
You can see it by the way she is dressed and where she lives um not the nicest neighborhood somewhere in the provinces
I'm not saying lady is bad it's probably nice nice woman okay, just brainwashed but this is what she says:

"We are used to be satisfied with what we have. The West is about comfort and good living.
And us, you know we have basic clothing, and we're not hungry, not starving, and this is all we need.
We don't need riches. Well this is much more convenient. This is our way. This is much more convenient to us, and then Europe the West, you know they like the other way, and we like our way.
Look look how many land we have. We have thousands of kilometers, there so much land, and look they live on top of each other.
They sit on top of each other's heads, and then they actually envious. The Europe is envious to us."

I have seen other interviews like that folks. I have seen um people speaking in buses and public transportation I've seen other
interviews I've seen um interviews of old the ladies talking about NATO expanding and enemies around Russia and they were ask questions like well look
around you see this terrible roads uh dirt everywhere you don't make much money and they answered

"oh you know what it doesn't matter we just don't want NATO to expand you know we we need to um tighten our waist belts because we understand that there are so many enemies around us that's priority number one forget about schools you know for so we need to keep NATO out."

I watched a number of interviews like that and I at first I couldn't believe it, and then I understood that this is what Russians are about they don't know any other way.

A lot of us experienced shortages in the once in a century pandemic, where I had some trouble buying basics like bread at times. Of course I survived it, all of us who didn't die survived the shortages, but it was temporary. But back in the USSR it was a regular thing to have shortages, and he says it will be back to those old USSR days for Russians later this year with shortages becoming a regular thing. Russians already had shortages of gasoline and diesel last fall. Living though those shortages doesn't prove how tough you are, but if they are ongoing shortages like in the USSR, it's just a lower standard of living. Not doing anything about it is proof of how brainwashed they are.

It's striking to me how Russians are brainwashed to accept their low standard of living, instead of striving for a better standard of living which they could have and did have, without all the shortages, when they weren't living in the USSR or the return of the USSR.

originally posted by: dragonridr
a reply to: Arbitrageur

Yeah I don't think people understand Russians prise themselves on hardship. They see it as being tough and withstanding whatever the Russian government asks from them. You will never see the Russians revolt and remove Putin. A coop however may be possible as oligarchs lose what little money they have left. They took huge financial hits and I am sure the support for Putin is wavering.

Yes a coup from the oligarchs is possible, but I'm sure their phones are monitored by the FSB, and anyone talking about organizing a coup will accidentally fall out of a 3rd story window, so Putin is aware of that threat and is surely trying to prevent it.

How do you like the tattoo on this Russian soldier sent to de-nazify Ukraine?



Update from Ukraine | Ruzzian Tanks were ambushed | Main Denazificator was Captured by Ukraine



Apparently Ukraine sent some reinforcements to Avdiivka. I suspect they will try to hang on to most of it, if they can, until after the elections in Russia next month. Putin of course wants to take Avdiivka before the Russian elections, and Russia is losing huge amounts of soldiers and equipment in their effort to take it, as noted here in some previous posts.

12 February Update

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria.

Boris Nadezhdin, the only openly anti-war Russian presidential candidate, filed two lawsuits in the Russian Supreme Court challenging the Russian Central Election Commission’s (CEC) refusal to register him as a candidate

Ukrainian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk and Kreminna.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Putin calls up his Dad's army: Russia 'will raise age limit of military personnel by 20 YEARS to 70' as leader desperately looks for more troops to fight his war in Ukraine, says UK intelligence

'Russia is proposing a draft legislation to raise the age of military contract personnel, including those that were recruited before June 2023, to age 65 and age 70 for officers,' a statement released by Britain's Ministry of Defence (MoD) said today.

'This would substantially raise the current age limit of 51 for non officers and would likely extend the contract length.'

Source

Not exactly sending Grandpa to war. What they are proposing is allowing officers to stay in the military until age 70. I don't know how much this will change things as "the pre-war 2021 life expectancy for Russian males was 64.2 years old (according to the World Data Site)."

a reply to: Bishop2199

Gonna be like serving in the Roman Legions. Most of those guys died before they reached 'retirement'.

Cheers

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
Apparently Ukraine sent some reinforcements to Avdiivka. I suspect they will try to hang on to most of it, if they can, until after the elections in Russia next month. Putin of course wants to take Avdiivka before the Russian elections, and Russia is losing huge amounts of soldiers and equipment in their effort to take it, as noted here in some previous posts.

Putin’s getting reelected regardless of Avdiivka.


3000+ UA troops are now being trapped in Avdiivka.

According to UA sources, Russians managed to reach the Industrial Street in Avdiivka now. Basically there is no more than 3 kilometers between northern and southern groupings.

Zelensky holding on Avdiivka for PR points because of Putin/Russian elections, is probably the hallmark Zelensky’s idiocy.

Anyone, even in a jungle in New Guinea with a trickle of internet can see Avdiivka is done. So having this done in a couple weeks at election time doesn’t matter as much in reality.

Putin’s getting reelected regardless of Avdiivka.

Being reported from multiple sources now that Russia now has split Avdiivka in two and controls the "road of life"

This will probably going to be shown/updated on ISW shortly.

a reply to: Imhere

413 tanks and 30,000 soldiers ...lost.

A Pyrrhic "victory"?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: Imhere

413 tanks and 30,000 soldiers ...lost.

A Pyrrhic "victory"?

You said that last year with Bahkmut.

You do know Avdiivka was fortified for years before 22’ right? And is regarded as one of the most fortified areas in Ukraine/europe?

Do you believe Zelensky should hold on to it, or pull back conserve troops and dig in as his top General who he ousted last week suggested?

a reply to: Imhere

I'm sure he'd take a significant percentage of Russia's irreplaceable armour and dead Russian's lost in a meat grinder ?

Carry on with the Putin fan boi thing.

LOL!