Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

14 November Update

Russian forces are likely trying to regain the theater-level initiative in Ukraine by conducting several simultaneous offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, although it remains unclear if Russian forces will be able to fully regain the initiative as Ukrainian forces maintain pressure on critical areas of the front. Several Ukrainian officials noted that the situation along the frontline is complex but that Ukrainian forces maintain control of the battlespace.

Russian forces conducted another wave of missile, air, and drone strikes against Ukrainian rear areas on the night of November 13–14. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on November 14 that overnight Russian forces launched nine Shahed-131/-136 drones from the direction of Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; an Iskander-M ballistic missile from the direction of Dzhankoi, occupied Crimea; and Kh-35 cruise missiles from the direction of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down seven of the nine Shaheds.

Ukraine's Western partners announced new efforts to continue providing Ukraine with military and financial aid.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 14 and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

15 November Update

The Ukrainian government reached a deal with international insurers that will provide affordable coverage to vessels carrying grain and other critical food supplies through the Black Sea corridor for civilian vessels, amid continued Russian efforts to deny navigation through the corridor. The Financial Times (FT) reported on November 15 that the Ukrainian government reached a deal with insurance broker giant Marsh McLennan to provide up to $50 million in hull and liability insurance from Lloyd’s of London firms for each vessel carrying agricultural goods.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Russia warns NATO of 'catastrophic consequences' as tensions with Moscow threaten WW3

"Owing to Washington's policy of rampant Russophobia, [relations] risk being severed at any moment. This is not Russia's choice, but reckless moves on the part of the United States that spin the wheel of escalation, including the doctrinal task of inflicting a 'strategic defeat' on Moscow, risk leading to catastrophic consequences."

Source

a reply to: Bishop2199

Ironic how Russia warns of the consequences of escalation when it was they who initiated a full scale conventional war against Ukraine. If "Moscow" endures a 'strategic defeat', it will be by their own inept hand.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

As you say, if Russia hadn't invaded then they wouldn't be embroiled in this WW I like trench warfare and wouldn't be facing such a public humiliation on the world stage.
It would be a bitter pill to swallow for many Russians and especially the leadership but Russia could put an end to the war in an instant by calling an immediate ceasefire and withdrawing to the pre-February 2022 borders.

That they won't consider it displays an arrogance and pig-headedness that is just going to result in more and more deaths on both sides.

I understand national pride and what a driver it can be but sometimes it just defies all logic, reasoning and sense of right and wrong.

16 November Update

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 15 to 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 18 Shahed-131/136 drones of which Ukrainian forces destroyed 16. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched S-300 missiles targeting Kharkiv Oblast and that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Kh-59 cruise missile over Poltava Oblast on the evening of November 15.

Russian authorities discovered former Russian 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army Commander Lieutenant General Vladimir Sviridov dead in his home in Stavropol Krai on November 15.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, near Robotyne, and northeast of Vasylivka and advanced near Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

17 November Update

Ukrainian officials stated that Ukrainian forces have established bridgeheads on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and are conducting ground operations aimed at pushing Russian forces out of artillery range of the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River. The Ukrainian Marine Corps Command and the Ukrainian General Staff stated on November 17 that Ukrainian marines have secured several “bridgeheads” on the east bank following successful actions and are conducting actions to expand these positions.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 16 to 17. Ukrainian military sources reported on November 17 that Russian forces launched 10 Shahed-131/136 drones primarily targeting Khmelnytskyi Oblast and several S-300 missiles in the Donetsk direction. Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed nine Shahed drones over Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zhytomyr, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in several sectors of the front.

More at URL above.

Cheers

18 November Update

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 17 to 18. Ukrainian military sources reported on November 18 that Ukrainian air defenses downed 29 of 38 Russian-launched Shahed-131/136 drones over multiple unspecified oblasts.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

19 November Update

Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes primarily targeting Kyiv, Poltava, and Cherkasy oblasts on the night of November 18 to 19. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on November 19 that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 15 of the 20 Russian Shahed-131/-136 drones.

Ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin formally announced his intent to run in the 2024 Russian presidential elections despite his imprisonment. Girkin acknowledged that his August 30 post claiming that he is better than Russian President Vladimir Putin aimed to attract attention before formally announcing his intent to run for president as an independent candidate.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on November 19.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Freeborn

Russia is hoping US support of Ukraine would end . In Putins speech recently he said they wouldn't last an hour without support. That's why his new plan is simply wait it out until Ukraine support dies off and he can take the rest if it. He's reached a point of equilibrium they are losing 800 to 1000 soldiers a day however they are able to send that number of new recruits. So he's using Russians population advantage to outlast support for Ukraine.

a reply to: dragonridr

There are those who believe Putin is either directly or indirectly behind the Hamas terrorist attack against Israel in order to reduce both practical and vocal support for Ukraine.

I'm not sure that's correct but the reality is that whilst the world's eye has been turned towards The Middle East there is a danger that support for Ukraine will weaken.
Let's hope that's not the case.

20 November Update

Finnish authorities closed four border checkpoints on Finland’s southeastern border with Russia on November 18 after the Finnish Border Guard reported that an influx of about 300 asylum seekers, mostly from Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Syria, had arrived at the Finnish border from Russia since September 2023. . . . Russia’s apparent hybrid warfare tactic on the Russian-Finnish border is similar to Russia’s and Belarus’ creation of a migrant crisis on the Polish border in 2021 and is likely similarly aimed at destabilizing NATO.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a new security assistance package to Ukraine during US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's visit to Kyiv on November 20. Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and reiterated long-term US support for Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

21 November Update

Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather conditions. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on November 20 that Russian shelling of the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast had decreased due to poor weather conditions.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes overnight on November 20-21 and on November 21 targeting port and civilian infrastructure, including a hospital in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 10 Shahed-131/136 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk; one Iskander-K ballistic missile from Dzhankoi, occupied Crimea; and four S-300 missiles in the Donetsk direction on the night of November 20-21. Ukrainian forces shot down nine Shahed drones and the Iskander missile.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a new military aid package to Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv on November 21. Pistorius announced that the package valued at 1.3 billion euros includes four IRIS-T SLM air defense systems; 20,000 155mm artillery shells, and anti-tank mines.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 21 and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Does anybody remember when Russia attacked a theater in Ukraine three months ago? Ukraine vowed they would retaliate:

Ukraine vows retaliation after deadly Russian missile attack on theater

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed retaliation against Russia following a deadly missile attack on a theater in Chernihiv over the weekend.

Apparently, Ukraine recently retaliated:
VENGEANCE BLAST Dramatic moment Ukrainian revenge missile strike smashes concert for Putin’s marines killing 25

THIS is the moment a Ukrainian missile struck a cultural centre packed with Russian marines in a deliberate “revenge attack”.

The HIMARS strike reportedly killed at least 25 Putin troops and left 100 wounded in the occupied Donetsk region.
The moment a Ukrainian revenge missile strike smashed a concert for Putin's marines.
Russian actress Polina Menshikh, 40, was reportedly killed in the attack.

That says it's retaliation for a parade attack, but it seems more similar to the atack Zelensy talked about in the above video. So what was it really retaliation for, or does it even matter? At this point I think both Russia and Ukraine can think of plenty of attacks for which they seek retaliation.

Russian civilians might want to stay away from large gatherings of Russian soldiers during wartime, especially when within himars range of Ukraine.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
21 November Update
"The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 10 Shahed-131/136 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk; one Iskander-K ballistic missile from Dzhankoi, occupied Crimea; and four S-300 missiles in the Donetsk direction on the night of November 20-21. Ukrainian forces shot down nine Shahed drones and the Iskander missile."

Ukraine is getting pretty good at shooting down the Shahed drones, 90% in this case.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

The attack you mentioned was the one I thought of when I read about this Ukrainian missile strike.

Cheers

22 November Update

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 21 to 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all 14 Shahed-131/136 drones that Russia launched at Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces also launched two missiles, of which one Kh-22 cruise missile fell in an unpopulated area in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, northwest of Horlivka, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and advanced east of Synkivka.

More at URL above.

Brief take: The war now appears to be a contest of wills. Ukraine has fewer resources than Russia, and Russia hopes to break their will simply by waging war long enough. Ukraine hopes that by waging war long enough, internal conflicts in Russia will become more pronounced and potentially lead to a change of regime.

Without command of the air and sufficient airmobile forces, Ukraine cannot break the Russian World War One-style entrenchments without heavy losses. Without a more competent force, Russia cannot force a military solution to the war. Thus, both sides struggle for small areas of terrain while conducting harassment and interdiction strikes via drones and missiles.

The one clear outcome of the recent campaigns is that Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been effectively defeated and forced to withdraw to more distant ports, allowing Ukraine use of the port of Odesa.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Brief take: The war now appears to be a contest of wills. Ukraine has fewer resources than Russia, and Russia hopes to break their will simply by waging war long enough. Ukraine hopes that by waging war long enough, internal conflicts in Russia will become more pronounced and potentially lead to a change of regime.

Thanks for the assessment, I agree with your points. Something almost happened with Prigozhin, but I'm a little unclear what the outcome would have been if he had proceeded. I don't think he was trying to overthrow Putin, just Gerasimov and Shoigu. I saw this video about Siberians paying the heaviest price at the front lines possibly giving them motivation to not want to be part of Russia any more to die in a war with Ukraine they don't want to die for:

Why Siberians Want to Secede From Russia (Ukraine War Documentary)

As Russia's war with Ukraine continues, it is now coming to light that Russia has disproportionately targeted Siberians for conscription in the Russian Army under Vladimir Putin's leadership. But this is just the latest in a long line of troubling episodes of Russia's dark history with Siberia.

Without command of the air and sufficient airmobile forces, Ukraine cannot break the Russian World War One-style entrenchments without heavy losses. Without a more competent force, Russia cannot force a military solution to the war. Thus, both sides struggle for small areas of terrain while conducting harassment and interdiction strikes via drones and missiles.

Ukraine is training their pilots to fly F-16s and they will be receiving some, but I don't think it will be enough planes to be a game-changer. I suppose every little bit helps though.

The one clear outcome of the recent campaigns is that Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been effectively defeated and forced to withdraw to more distant ports, allowing Ukraine use of the port of Odesa.

That had to be embarrassing for Russia, to have their navy defeated or at least run away and hide from a country that doesn't even have a navy.

No update made on the Thanksgiving holiday. Interesting bit about Siberia. Of course, they just might jump from the Russian fire into the Chinese frying pan.

Cheers

"Russia and China discuss building 'underwater tunnel' to Crimea - report
Russian and Chinese executives have been secretly discussing building an underwater tunnel to connect the Russian mainland and the Crimean Peninsula, according to a report.

The Washington Post says Ukraine's security services have intercepted transmissions between the countries about the establishment of a tunnel that would be safe from any potential attacks by Ukraine.

The talks, which "included meetings in late October", were triggered by mounting Russian concerns over the security of the Kerch Strait bridge, which has been targeted twice by Ukraine's military.

Both attacks have led to logistical headaches for the Kremlin, with the bridge acting as a key logistics and supply route between the Russian mainland and Crimea." news.sky.com...

24 November Update

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces began a renewed offensive effort towards Avdiivka on November 22

Chinese businesses, including a prominent state-owned Chinese construction firm, are reportedly working with Russian businessmen to plan the construction of an underwater tunnel that would connect Russia with occupied Crimea. (Me: tip of the hat to Orb)

European states are responding to Russia's continued orchestration of an artificially created migrant crisis on its northwestern borders. The Finnish government announced on November 22 that Finland will close three more checkpoints on the Finnish-Russian border from November 23 to December 23, leaving only the northernmost checkpoint open.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and marginally advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers