Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

NATO Strengthening 'Most Exposed' Flank in Face of Russian Aggression

As the world's eyes turn from Ukraine to Israel and Gaza, NATO countries on the alliance's eastern edge are staring down Russia and strengthening their presence on the bloc's "most exposed" flank.

Lithuania, Poland, and other NATO nations close to Russia and Belarus are bolstering defense and their "deterrence posture on the Eastern flank," including protection for the contentious Suwałki Gap, Vilnius' defense minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, told Newsweek.

Just as Russia has pulled back from Belarus, NATO is strengthening.

I wonder what Intel they have that we don't know about.

a reply to: Freeborn

Good to see you posting again, Freeborn!

Cheers Mate

a reply to: Bishop2199

This is a situation that illustrates how problematic nuclear weapons threats can be.

Say Russia was able to launch a sudden attack and cut through the Suwalki Gap, cutting off the Baltic NATO states from the rest of NATO. And then they said, "now do something about it ... but be prepared for nuclear war".

The devil in that situation is no one knows if all NATO countries would honor their obligations and give the nod to go to war. Some of the countries might cry out for extended consideration, weighing further the situation ... call it what one wishes, but end effect is that territory of one or more NATO countries would get amputated, with further downstream consequences for NATO as an alliance.

I imagine NATO's goal is to ensure if any moves are made, they get stopped within a kilometer or so of the border, so that the situation remains manageable with conventional means.

I wonder how good the intel is about Russia's military presence in Belarus. I find it hard to believe ALL Russian troops got pulled back to Russia, losses in the Ukraine war notwithstanding.

Cheers

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Thank you Cav for keeping this thread going whilst many people's attention has been switched to other areas of the world.

Some of us rely on this thread for daily updates.

Yes.

My attention has not switched.

1 November Update

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.

Russian forces conducted a relatively large series of drone and missile strikes mainly targeting Poltava Oblast on the night of October 31 to November 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 1 that Russian forces launched three Kh-59 missiles and 20 Shahed 131/136 drones and noted that Ukrainian air defenses downed all three of the Kh-59 missiles and 18 Shahed drones.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut direction, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in various sectors of the front.

More at URL above.

Cheers

2 November Update

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Bakhmut and continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 2. Geolocated footage published on November 1 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced further northeast of the railway line near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

3 November Update

Russian forces conducted a notably larger series of drone strikes throughout Ukraine on November 3. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched four dozen Shahed-131/-136 drones from Kursk Oblast and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and a Kh-59 cruise missile from occupied Kherson Oblast at targets in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down the Kh-59 cruise missile and 24 of the Shahed drones.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced new military aid packages to Ukraine on November 3, primarily aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, near Vuhledar, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

4 November Update

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on November 3 and 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed two Shahed-131/136 drones targeting Sumy Oblast on the night of November 3 to 4 and three Iskander-K cruise missiles targeting Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava oblasts on the evening of November 4.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Bakhmut directions.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, north and south of Bakhmut, around Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, near Vuhledar, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in eastern and western Zaporizhia Oblast, and advanced in various sectors of the front.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2
You were able to get your account back more quickly than me! Thanks for continuing your updates.

I keep seeing reports about the huge number of Russian losses in their attacks on Avdiivka lately. At first the vehicle losses were huge, but it seems they couldn't sustain those so decided it was better to sustain huge troop losses instead, since Russia apparently has more solider lives to waste, than they do vehicles. Here are some samples of the articles:

Russia's paying for a new assault in wrecked vehicles, losing in just a few weeks what Ukraine lost over months, war analysts say

Russ ian War Report: Russia just lost the most troops in a single battle so far in 2023

Russian losses in battle for Avdiivka may be worst of 2023, says UK

Russian forces are believed to have suffered some of the country’s biggest casualty rates so far this year as a result of continued “heavy but inconclusive” fighting around the Donetsk oblast town of Avdiivka...

“Political leaders demand more territory to be seized but the military cannot generate the effective operational level offensive action.”

Apparently there are some remnants of Wagner PMC fighting around Avdiivka, reporting through Russian military command instead of Wagner. Since the Wagner command structure lacked some of the pitfalls of the Russian military command, Wagner was able to fight more effectively. But now that they under Russian military control, the ex-Wagners don't have that advantage any more, of not being part of the Russian military and the problems that entails.

5 November Update

Ukrainian forces conducted a successful strike on a Russian shipyard in Kerch, occupied Crimea on November 4, likely damaging a naval vessel. The Ukrainian Amed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) stated that Ukrainian forces conducted successful strikes on Russian marine and port infrastructure at the Zalyv Shipyard in Kerch on the evening of November 4. Satellite imagery from November 4 shows that the strike damaged a Project 22800 Karakurt-class Kalibr missile carrier corvette at the shipyard, although the extent of the damage to the ship is currently unclear. (Me: ship was new and had not entered service).

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and made confirmed gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast and on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on November 5. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations south of Bakhmut and in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

@Arb: Good to see you posting again

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Thanks for the updates Cav. Still can't access my account here Bally001 so created this account to follow up.

I'll monitor your posts. I have PM'd a mod. Also can't currently get into RN. So was getting lonely. Can't even PM you.

News has moved away from that part of the world and focussing on the Middle East so the only updates I get on the Ukraine/Russia situ tend to conflict in view points.

Keep up with the good work.

Kind regards,

Bally

Spam removed

Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian missile stocks

According to Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, it is about 165 Kalibr, about 160 units of Kh-101, Kh-555, and Kh-55 with warheads, about 290 units of Iskander-M and Iskander-K, about 80 Kinzhal, and 150 Kh-22 / Kh-32 missiles. The effective strike distance of the Kh-22 missile is 350 kilometers.

The article goes on to say that the levels are pretty much the same as the were last year which indicates that Russia has managed to maintain production to prolong this conflict.

Source

So, does that indicate this is a stalemate without any massive intervention by either side?

originally posted by: Bally03
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Thanks for the updates Cav. Still can't access my account here Bally001 so created this account to follow up.

I'll monitor your posts. I have PM'd a mod. Also can't currently get into RN. So was getting lonely. Can't even PM you.

News has moved away from that part of the world and focussing on the Middle East so the only updates I get on the Ukraine/Russia situ tend to conflict in view points.

Keep up with the good work.

Kind regards,

Bally

Hi Bally,

Sent you a PM.

Yeah, RN is down for me as well.

See if you can PM moderator Djarums. He has helped people reestablish their old accounts here.

Cheers!

originally posted by: Bishop2199
So, does that indicate this is a stalemate without any massive intervention by either side?

I don't see much correlation between missile production and stalemate as your question implies.

Last winter, Russia tried to use drones and missiles to freeze Ukraine into submission, and they didn't succeed last year. They will probably try again this year but I don't see how they would succeed this year where they failed last year.

More significant and potentially variable than Russian missile production is western support for Ukraine. If the wrong president of the US gets elected in 2024 who cuts off aid to Ukraine, I don't see a stalemate with no aid from the US. This is probably what Putin is hoping for so Russia can advance.

I think the territory maps speak for themselves. Ukraine liberated significant occupied territory in 2022, but not much in 2023. I don't think Russian missiles played a major role in these facts, indeed plenty of them have been aimed at civilian infrastructure like power plants, electrical transformers, and port grain loading infrastructure, rather than military targets.

A number of people predicted this could be a really long war, just a few months after Feb 22. Barring some significant event like Putin dying from natural causes, or another coup attempt like the one Prigozhin failed to follow through on, the front lines may not move much but the occupied territories are going to be miserable places to live, some Russians are even leaving Crimea now since Ukraine suggested they evacuate and there will be attempts on the Kerch bridge.

So even if Ukraine has trouble liberating all their occupied territory, they can still make such territory a living hell for the occupiers, though Ukraine tends to attack military targets unlike Russia which attacks a fair amount of civilian targets.

6 November Update

Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes against rear areas in southern Ukraine on the evening of November 5 and on the night of November 5 to 6 as well as the largest series of glide bomb strikes to date against targets in Kherson Oblast on November 5.

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on November 6.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Video of the attack which "significantly damaged" Russian missile carrier Askold.

Dramatic footage appears to show three separate missile strikes - while another new image highlights huge damage to the newly-built naval warship.

The blasts are believed to have been by SCALP-EGs - the French version of the Anglo-French Storm Shadow which has repeatedly caused damage to key Russian targets in recent months.
Russia earlier admitted damage to a ship in the Kerch attack but did not specify the name.

7 November Update

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.

The Ukrainian strike on a Russian shipyard in Kerch, occupied Crimea on November 4 significantly damaged a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) naval vessel. Russian and Ukrainian sources posted photos on November 7 showing significant damage to the Askold Project 22800 Karakurt-class Kalibr missile carrier corvette that will likely render it inoperable for the foreseeable future.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas.

A Russian battalion comprised of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) will likely deploy to Ukraine in the near future in an apparent violation of the Geneva Convention on Prisoners of War. (Me: Soviets did the same thing as precursors to forming "liberation armies" for propaganda and cannon-fodder purposes.)

More at URL above.

Cheers