Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

6 December Update

Russian forces conducted a notably large series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 5 to 6. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched 50 Shahed-131/136 from Kursk Oblast and Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea and that Ukrainian air defenses downed 41 Shaheds.

Russian oil revenues continue to increase due to a concerted Russian effort to skirt the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil and petroleum products. Bloomberg reported on December 6 that Russia made $11.3 billion in revenue from the sale of crude oil and petroleum products in October 2023, the highest level of Russian oil and petroleum revenue since May 2022 and above the monthly Russian oil and petroleum revenues in the year before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Unspecified actors killed former pro-Russian Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada deputy Ilya Kiva in Moscow Oblast on December 6. The Russian Main Investigative Directorate for Moscow Oblast stated on December 6 that unspecified actors killed Kiva in Suponevo, Odintsovo urban raion, Moscow Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: Imhere
It’s because Zelensky just admitted the Summer offensive has failed. His own words “it failed to achieve its desired results”

I think he was just stating the obvious. I never saw any source claim it had achieved the desired results.

I remember when the invasion was imminent, multiple sources were comparing things like Russian tank and troop counts to Ukrainian tank and troop counts, and based on those statistics which greatly favored Russia, they seemed open to the idea Ukraine wouldn't last long when assaulted with such overwhelming odds against them. While Ukraine fought bravely, I think a large part of Russia's failure to take Ukraine was the result of the Russian military's incompetence and culture of corruption.

Then in 2022 when Ukraine mounted a very successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv, liberating a huge swath of its territory and capturing hundreds of abandoned Russian vehicles, these threads were sometimes linking to the youtube "War In Ukraine" or WIU channel, which I was watching at the time. That channel said that Ukraine will regret it if they pause too long after the advances they made in Kharkiv, because they had made such huge gains, there were no prepared defense lines. It turned out that prediction was correct. For whatever reason, (inadequate supplies from its allies, perhaps?), Ukraine didn't keep going when there were essentially no defenses in areas where they had just made huge advances, and that would have been the time to do it. Waiting until Russia built formidable defenses resulted in exactly what was predicted on the WIU channel.

Ukraine did manage to break some of those defense lines near Robotyne, so there was some small success, but obviously their ambition was far greater. Also the constant rhetoric about the coming counter offensive coudn't have made Russians more prepared for what was about to come, unlike the 2022 rout in Kharkiv which was apparently unexpected by some in the Russian military.

and Russia is advancing on all fronts.

I don't know about that, I see them advance a little, then Ukraine pushes them back, same for Ukraine, there's not a lot of movement on the front lines. There are small movements. But as much as I want Ukraine to liberate all their territories, there are signs things may get worse for them and Russia may start holding their advances:

1. The military budget in Russia for 2024 is dramatically increased, to 6% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2024, up from 3.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021. That's over a 50% increase as a percentage of GDP from 2023 and over a 100% increase from 2022!
2. As Russian military spending is increasing dramatically, the US can't even get aid for Ukraine to pass through political roadblocks related to immigration which is unrelated to Ukraine. Senate fails to pass Ukraine aid bill
3. Why Europe Failed: EU Acknowledged They Cannot Implement the Plan of Producing 1 Million Artillery Shells for Ukraine by March. Even if the EU had produced the million shells they promised, Russia would still have a significant advantage in artillery shells. Now they will have an even larger advantage. This video basically blames the west for providing inadequate and often delayed support to Ukraine as the main reason its counteroffensive this year failed to meet objectives, which may be true. It also suggests that the F-16s Ukraine will get could help turn things around. That would be nice but I'll have to see it to believe it.

4. Russia to Increase Size of Military But Says No Mobilization

The total number of armed forces will increase to 2.2 million people, of which 1.3 million will be servicemen, according to a decree published on the Kremlin’s website late Friday. Up Next Russia to Increase Size of Military But Says No Mobilization

Probably no mobilation before the Russian election ina few months, but after that, who knows?

Russia has launched an aggressive military recruitment campaign to support its operations in Ukraine, offering sizeable cash incentives to citizens willing to enlist.

In a move that underscores the challenges faced by Vladimir Putin’s forces, payouts as high as 1 million rubles (approximately $11,000) are being promised to those who join an “elite division.” This initiative is part of a broader strategy to encourage enlistment in the face of sustained military engagement.

I've heard payouts of over 600,000 rubles are common (~$7000), and that's just the signing bonus. Then the lowest ranks get paid 200,000 rubles a month, versus the average Russian income of only 73,000 Rubles a month, so almost 3 times the average income. So even though Ukraine claims it's killing lots and lots of Russians in the "meat waves" assaulting them in Avdiivka, apparently the Russian financial incentives are difficult for many people to resist despite the risks, and people are signing up to join the military even if not forced to by mobilization, so more and more "meat waves" just keep coming.

However that makes me wonder how Russia is going to keep its factories going at full capacity, with the increased size of their military and the million who already left the country to avoid mobilization. They have already tried to solicit soldiers and workers from other countries, I think they may have a worker shortage. But I don't think Ukraine can count on that for the artillery ammunition factories in Russia.

Lastly there's an even bigger political risk in America than the Ukraine support bill which just failed to pass. The elections next November could potentially result in a dramatic drop in support for Ukraine from the US. So things could get worse for Ukraine before they get better. I hope that won't happen.

7 December Update

Russian forces conducted another series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 6 to 7. Ukrainian military sources reported on December 7 that Ukrainian forces downed 15 of 18 Russian-launched Shahed-131/136 drones that primarily targeted Khmelnytskyi and Odesa oblasts.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a new security assistance package and joint weapons production pledge to Ukraine ...

Russian security organs conducted mass arrests targeting high-profile gangs in Moscow and St. Petersburg, including members and co-conspirators within the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) and other internal security organs. The MVD announced on December 6 that it detained MVD and Rosgvardia personnel who are members of a high-profile gang that had been committing crimes, including murders, kidnappings, and robberies, in Moscow and Kaluga oblasts and Krasnoyarsk Krai since 1998.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and marginally advanced near Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

If China gets Siberia, China is big threat to the US. Unlike Russia which has small population, China has huge population. On top of that, Chinese are far more patriotic and disciplined compared to Russians. The US will never allow China to get Siberia, even if it means nuclear war.

a reply to: MiddleKingdomer
China already got the use of their Haishenwai (海参崴) port back in this historic year from Russia, after 163 years. Russia named it Vladivostok, but I don't think the Chinese have forgotten it used to be their port of Haishenwai. I don't fully understand the deal between Russia and China for allowing China to use the port again, but I see China shipping "dual-use" goods to Russia that aid their military operations, other than actual weapons, like drones, and unarmed, not armored jeep-like vehicles to assist bringing supplies to the front lines.

Or at least they were shipping aid to Russia; I don't know how long it will take to repair the damage to the rail lines China was using to ship supplies to Russia caused during recent Ukraine attacks.

Russia opening Vladivostok port to China after 163 years

An interviewed academic said this further proved that the scales have tipped in favour of China being the dominant partner in China-Russia relations amid Russia’s isolation due to the Russia-Ukraine war.

This video is very interesting, saying even though China is supporting Russia, it wants Russia to lose its war with Ukraine, so it can take back some of the territories it surrendered to Russia under the Qin dynasty, and it's already printed official maps showing those areas as Chinese!

Why China Wants Russia To LOSE Ukraine War

13:10
In 2023, Beijing approved the creation of official maps which show the territories surrendered under the Qin dynasty under Chinese control and with their old Chinese names. The statement was clear: China wants what Russia has.

And this is why China needs Russia to lose this war, and the worse that it loses, the better.

Those areas China wants to take back are rich in oil reserves, and fresh water, two things China wants and needs very much.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
It’s because Zelensky just admitted the Summer offensive has failed. His own words “it failed to achieve its desired results”

I think he was just stating the obvious. I never saw any source claim it had achieved the desired results.

I remember when the invasion was imminent, multiple sources were comparing things like Russian tank and troop counts to Ukrainian tank and troop counts, and based on those statistics which greatly favored Russia, they seemed open to the idea Ukraine wouldn't last long when assaulted with such overwhelming odds against them. While Ukraine fought bravely, I think a large part of Russia's failure to take Ukraine was the result of the Russian military's incompetence and culture of corruption.

Then in 2022 when Ukraine mounted a very successful counter-offensive in Kharkiv, liberating a huge swath of its territory and capturing hundreds of abandoned Russian vehicles, these threads were sometimes linking to the youtube "War In Ukraine" or WIU channel, which I was watching at the time. That channel said that Ukraine will regret it if they pause too long after the advances they made in Kharkiv, because they had made such huge gains, there were no prepared defense lines. It turned out that prediction was correct. For whatever reason, (inadequate supplies from its allies, perhaps?), Ukraine didn't keep going when there were essentially no defenses in areas where they had just made huge advances, and that would have been the time to do it. Waiting until Russia built formidable defenses resulted in exactly what was predicted on the WIU channel.

Ukraine did manage to break some of those defense lines near Robotyne, so there was some small success, but obviously their ambition was far greater. Also the constant rhetoric about the coming counter offensive coudn't have made Russians more prepared for what was about to come, unlike the 2022 rout in Kharkiv which was apparently unexpected by some in the Russian military.

and Russia is advancing on all fronts.

I don't know about that, I see them advance a little, then Ukraine pushes them back, same for Ukraine, there's not a lot of movement on the front lines. There are small movements. But as much as I want Ukraine to liberate all their territories, there are signs things may get worse for them and Russia may start holding their advances:

1. The military budget in Russia for 2024 is dramatically increased, to 6% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2024, up from 3.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021. That's over a 50% increase as a percentage of GDP from 2023 and over a 100% increase from 2022!
2. As Russian military spending is increasing dramatically, the US can't even get aid for Ukraine to pass through political roadblocks related to immigration which is unrelated to Ukraine. Senate fails to pass Ukraine aid bill
3. Why Europe Failed: EU Acknowledged They Cannot Implement the Plan of Producing 1 Million Artillery Shells for Ukraine by March. Even if the EU had produced the million shells they promised, Russia would still have a significant advantage in artillery shells. Now they will have an even larger advantage. This video basically blames the west for providing inadequate and often delayed support to Ukraine as the main reason its counteroffensive this year failed to meet objectives, which may be true. It also suggests that the F-16s Ukraine will get could help turn things around. That would be nice but I'll have to see it to believe it.

4. Russia to Increase Size of Military But Says No Mobilization

The total number of armed forces will increase to 2.2 million people, of which 1.3 million will be servicemen, according to a decree published on the Kremlin’s website late Friday. Up Next Russia to Increase Size of Military But Says No Mobilization

Probably no mobilation before the Russian election ina few months, but after that, who knows?

Russia has launched an aggressive military recruitment campaign to support its operations in Ukraine, offering sizeable cash incentives to citizens willing to enlist.

In a move that underscores the challenges faced by Vladimir Putin’s forces, payouts as high as 1 million rubles (approximately $11,000) are being promised to those who join an “elite division.” This initiative is part of a broader strategy to encourage enlistment in the face of sustained military engagement.

I've heard payouts of over 600,000 rubles are common (~$7000), and that's just the signing bonus. Then the lowest ranks get paid 200,000 rubles a month, versus the average Russian income of only 73,000 Rubles a month, so almost 3 times the average income. So even though Ukraine claims it's killing lots and lots of Russians in the "meat waves" assaulting them in Avdiivka, apparently the Russian financial incentives are difficult for many people to resist despite the risks, and people are signing up to join the military even if not forced to by mobilization, so more and more "meat waves" just keep coming.

However that makes me wonder how Russia is going to keep its factories going at full capacity, with the increased size of their military and the million who already left the country to avoid mobilization. They have already tried to solicit soldiers and workers from other countries, I think they may have a worker shortage. But I don't think Ukraine can count on that for the artillery ammunition factories in Russia.

Lastly there's an even bigger political risk in America than the Ukraine support bill which just failed to pass. The elections next November could potentially result in a dramatic drop in support for Ukraine from the US. So things could get worse for Ukraine before they get better. I hope that won't happen.

This is a complete disconnect from reality and dampening.

The offense completely failed. Period.

You wanna cheerlead more aid. Which thus far equals to more demilitarization.

Continue.

8 December Update

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 7 to 8. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on December 8 that Russian forces launched seven Shahed-131/136 drones and six S-300 missiles on the night of December 7 to 8 and 19 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles against Kyiv Oblast and infrastructure facilities in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the morning of December 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces also launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile against an unspecified target. Ukrainian forces downed five Shahed drones and 14 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles.

Ukraine’s partners continued to announce military and financial aid packages to Ukraine recently.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

In 1860 China and Russia agreed on the river being the border. In fact, in 1924 Ukraine and Russia agreed on the river being the border and as a result Ukraine lost about 30,000 sq km of land to Russia in 1924. Although Ukraine had never officially claimed its lost land.

en.wikipedia.org...

a reply to: Arbitrageur

As a Chinese, I doubt China will invade Russia. China is a thousands year old civilization and has vast experience in survival. There's also no way Russia will lose to Ukraine. Russia has 140 million people. Ukraine has 34 million people. Even if every Ukrainian is dead, Russia still have 100 million people left. Not to mention nuclear weapons. Not to mention China and Russia historically have good relation.

9 December Update

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Kreminna.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Looks like US aid dried up for Ukraine. German aid should still be available until Sholz loses election.

It appears Russians captured Marinka which is the last town adjacent to the capital city Donetsk.

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10 December Update

Russian forces conducted a small series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on December 9 and 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed a Kh-29 missile and Shahed-136 drone on December 9 and that Russian forces struck Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast with two S-300 missiles on December 10.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: MiddleKingdomer
a reply to: Arbitrageur

As a Chinese, I doubt China will invade Russia. China is a thousands year old civilization and has vast experience in survival. There's also no way Russia will lose to Ukraine. Russia has 140 million people. Ukraine has 34 million people. Even if every Ukrainian is dead, Russia still have 100 million people left. Not to mention nuclear weapons. Not to mention China and Russia historically have good relation.

As long as Putin is in power, Russia won't lose the way the Japanese and Germans did in WWII. But there are other possible outcomes. I'm not sure Prigozhin was attempting a coup of Putin, it seemed like he wanted to overthrow Shoigu and Gerasimov and take their place reporting to Putin, but whatever his intentions, he was convinced to call it off. Someone else could still attempt something similar though, such revolutions are not unheard of in Russian history.

As soon as someone else takes power, they will have an option to end the war and can blame everything on Putin. Putin doesn't have that option. Even if he might like to end the war by now, he can't, the only person he could blame for Russia's current state is himself.

Anyway it's probably best if China doesn't invade Russia so I hope you're right, but hopefully you're aware that China's territorial ambitions are pretty obvious elsewhere also, claiming territories in the South China sea for example, and why can't they just let Taiwan exist in peace, without all the rhetoric?

originally posted by: MiddleKingdomer
It appears Russians captured Marinka which is the last town adjacent to the capital city Donetsk.

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Marinka has been "comprehensively ruined" from the photos I've seen. So I think it would be more accurate to say Russia took the flattened ruins that used to be Marinka, and paid a high price in human lives to do that.

Russia Loses Over 9,000 Troops to Capture Ukraine Wasteland

"With a pre-war population of 9000, it is comprehensively ruined," the U.K. Ministry of Defense wrote of Marinka in an update on the Ukraine war on Tuesday. "Drone footage suggests that the vast majority of buildings have been reduced to rubble."

U.K. intelligence added in the update that while Russia "now likely controls most of the built-up area" in Marinka, "Ukrainian forces remain in control of pockets of territory on the western edge of the town."

Russia has 4 times the population of Ukraine. Ukraine can't win. As an example, in WW1 Germany was out numbered 1 to 4 fighting the UK, France, Russia and got bled dry.

Looks like Russians have entered Adveevka city. Adveevka is located smack in the middle of Donetsk oblast. Losing Adveevka would be devastating for Ukrainians. It greatly tips the balance of power in Donetsk oblast in Russia's favor.

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Adveevka has a mighty coke plant but even that is slowly being chipped away by 1,000 lb glide bombs.

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originally posted by: MiddleKingdomer
Looks like Russians have entered Adveevka city. Adveevka is located smack in the middle of Donetsk oblast. Losing Adveevka would be devastating for Ukrainians. It greatly tips the balance of power in Donetsk oblast in Russia's favor.

twitter.com...

Ukraine Soldiers are glued to the TV, watching C-Span apparently.

Zelenskyy tells DC audience Ukraine troops watching Congress aid fight.

Source: nypost.com...

Volodymyr Zelenskyy - Master Salesman.

a reply to: WeMustCare

I'm surprised Ukraine and Russia haven't agreed to a temporary ceasefire until the U.S. money is settled! 😀

a reply to: MiddleKingdomer

As an example, in WW1 Germany was out numbered 1 to 4 fighting the UK, France, Russia and got bled dry.

No, you're wrong.

Germany population 1914 = 68million.
Austria-Hungary population 1914 = 53million.
Ottoman Empire population 1914 = 19million.
Total population 140million.

UK population 1914 = 45million.
France population 1914 = 39million.
Russia population 1914 = 170million.
Total population = 254million.

Not even twice as many.
Most of the participant nations of WWI were sort of 'bled dry' in one way another as far as I can tell.

Credibility is gained by posting facts.