Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Bishop2199

Repair of that tunnel may take years.

Notable that other railway routes to China exist, but I have no data as to their freight-carrying capacity.

Cheers

Russian Major General Vladimir Zavadsky, Deputy Commander of the 14th Army Corps, was killed. Presumably he was killed by a mine in Ukraine .

Russian General Blown Up on a Landmine in Ukraine


I can see why there is talk about low troop morale among Russian forces if even top general got killed by Russian landmine .

a reply to: Kenzo

Someone could say that the general took a step in the wrong direction.

a reply to: Bishop2199


Yes, poor general

originally posted by: Kenzo

Russian Major General Vladimir Zavadsky, Deputy Commander of the 14th Army Corps, was killed. Presumably he was killed by a mine in Ukraine .

Russian General Blown Up on a Landmine in Ukraine


I can see why there is talk about low troop morale among Russian forces if even top general got killed by Russian landmine .

I guess he did as the director in tropic thunder did!!

originally posted by: Bishop2199
Someone could say that the general took a step in the wrong direction.

Or the right direction...

originally posted by: orbhunter
Yes I do remember the truck bomb Arbi and the same can happen again for sure. Yet if the tunnel is used for supplying the Russian forces in Crimea, then maybe they can keep out attacks.

Maybe they can't keep out attacks. Did you make a note of this, orbhunter?

originally posted by: Bishop2199
In a devastating blow, Ukraine’s SBU destroys key railway tunnel connecting Russia & China

The explosion is another successful special operation of the SBU, sources said, though the special service has not yet commented on the event.

"In fact, this is the only serious railroad route between Russia and China," sources said.

“And now this route, which Russia uses, among other things, for military supplies, is paralyzed.”

Source

This is not good news for Putin!

Now he will need to rely on weapons from North Korea since his Chinese supply line has been broken.

30 November Update

Russian forces conducted multiple series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine that struck civilian infrastructure on November 29 and 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched eight S-300 missiles and 20 Shahed-131/136 drones on the night of November 29-30. Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces downed 14 of the drones.

Russian Railways and the East Siberian Transport Prosecutor’s Office stated that a freight train caught fire in the Severomuysky Tunnel on the Itykit-Okusikan section of the East Siberian Railway in the Republic of Buryatia on the night of November 29. Russian Railways stated that the fire did not interrupt train traffic, but Russian opposition outlet Baza stated that 10 trains were delayed. Baza reported that two railway cars carrying diesel fuel detonated, igniting six total railway cars.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed advances.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I might be wrong but I get the impression that more Russian drones are getting through the Ukrainian defence systems?

If so would that be because of weakened or reduced Ukrainian defence capabilities or improved drone technology and deployment....or something else?

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

I might be wrong but I get the impression that more Russian drones are getting through the Ukrainian defence systems?

If so would that be because of weakened or reduced Ukrainian defence capabilities or improved drone technology and deployment....or something else?

Hi Freeborn,

I've heard some of the newer Russian drones are coated with material that makes them harder for radar to detect.

Also may be luck of the draw; Ukrainian air defense isn't uniformly robust.

Cheers

a reply to: Arbitrageur

See where you're coming from Arbi and maybe the Ruskies will use this to drag China into the Ukraine invasion. China's involvement will make all the difference

originally posted by: orbhunter
a reply to: Arbitrageur

See where you're coming from Arbi

and maybe the Ruskies will use this to drag China into the Ukraine invasion. China's involvement will make all the difference

Russia doesn’t need China directly involved. Russia just needs this drawn out as much as possible. And demilitarize Ukraine.

Which sadly is taking out a major chunk of the eastern Slavic population unfortunately. Whether you’re pro Zelensky or pro Putin.

I would say 2 turning points already started this year.


1. Bahkmut fell in May. Which since then, Ukraine has been sending wave after wave to which has resulted in more casualties.

2. Ukraine’s summer offensive failed.

Now when the East finally folds (like with Avdiivka) it opens country going west.

If I was Ukraine, I’d look at the possibility to try and buy as much time as possible like with the Minsk agreements which Germany’s Merkal admitted years ago was bs and was there just to buy as much time as possible to fortify positions. Such as Avdiivka has over the years before 22’.

For years Avdiivka has been fortified into a concrete fortress. Not sure if anyone here took a look at it but there’s a hill of toxic waste (which Russia took control of it recently) from the Coke plant. This plant has been turned into an under/above ground concrete fortress.

However, so was Bahkmut. Soledar also with its vast labyrinth of underground Salt mines tunnels etc.

originally posted by: orbhunter
a reply to: Arbitrageur

See where you're coming from Arbi

and maybe the Ruskies will use this to drag China into the Ukraine invasion. China's involvement will make all the difference

Especially if they decide Siberia is actually Chinese territory

Cheers

1 December Update

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi signaled intent to increase Ukrainian defenses and fortifications around the Ukrainian theater

Ukrainian intelligence reportedly damaged another train along a section of the Baikal-Amur Railway on December 1 in an apparent effort to degrade Russian logistics in the Russian Far East. Ukrainian media reported that Ukrainian intelligence sources stated that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) conducted a special operation that damaged another train carrying fuel as it passed over a bridge along an unspecified part of the northern bypass of the Baikal-Amur Railway.

Russian forces conducted another missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of November 30-December 1. The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that Russian forces launched 25 Shahed 131/136 drones and two Kh-59 missiles primarily targeting areas in eastern and southern Ukraine and that Ukrainian forces downed 18 of the drones and one of the missiles.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
1 December Update

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi signaled intent to increase Ukrainian defenses and fortifications around the Ukrainian theater

Ukrainian intelligence reportedly damaged another train along a section of the Baikal-Amur Railway on December 1 in an apparent effort to degrade Russian logistics in the Russian Far East. Ukrainian media reported that Ukrainian intelligence sources stated that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) conducted a special operation that damaged another train carrying fuel as it passed over a bridge along an unspecified part of the northern bypass of the Baikal-Amur Railway.

Russian forces conducted another missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of November 30-December 1. The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that Russian forces launched 25 Shahed 131/136 drones and two Kh-59 missiles primarily targeting areas in eastern and southern Ukraine and that Ukrainian forces downed 18 of the drones and one of the missiles.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Speaking of “ISW”

It conveniently leaves out bits and pieces on the actual reality of the situation. Yet, goes in detail on everything else.

In the first “Key take away” line, its leaves out why Zelensky has now signaled intent to increase Ukrainian defenses and fortifications around the Ukrainian theater.

It’s because Zelensky just admitted the Summer offensive has failed. His own words “it failed to achieve its desired results”

and Russia is advancing on all fronts.

KHARKIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the war with Russia is in a new stage, with winter expected to complicate fighting after a summer counteroffensive that failed to produce desired results due to enduring shortages of weapons and ground forces.

Despite setbacks, however, he said Ukraine won’t give up.

“We have a new phase of war, and that is a fact,” Zelenskyy said in an exclusive interview Thursday with The Associated Press in Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine after a morale-boosting tour of the region. “Winter as a whole is a new phase of war.”

apnews.com...

Zelensky’s recent update on the situation is also being reported on most news outlets as well.

2 December Update

Poor weather conditions continue to slow the pace of Ukrainian and Russian combat operations across the entire frontline but have not completely halted them.

Russian forces launched another series of Shahed 136/131 drone and missile strikes targeting southern Ukraine overnight on December 1-2. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched 11 Shahed drones from Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea and a Kh-59 cruise missile from the airspace over occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 10 Shahed drones over Odesa Oblast and the Kh-59 cruise missile over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Ukrainian and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials reported that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) completely disconnected from all external power sources for five and a half hours on the night of December 1 to 2, marking the plant’s eighth complete black out — all under Russian occupation.

The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned three third party entities involved in the transport of Russian crude oil above the G7 price cap.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

A quite sobering account of the realities of life for Ukrainian Marines on the east bank of the Dnipro river.
Seems to be some disillusionment and a feeling of abandonment.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Some selected comments:

"When we arrived on the [eastern] bank, the enemy were waiting. Russians we managed to capture said their forces were tipped off about our landing so when we got there, they knew exactly where to find us. They threw everything at us - artillery, mortars and flame thrower systems. I thought I'd never get out."

"Every day we sat in the forest taking incoming fire. We were trapped - the roads and paths are all riddled with mines. The Russians cannot control everything, and we use it. But their drones are constantly buzzing in the air, ready to strike as soon as they see movement.

"No-one knows the goals. Many believe that the command simply abandoned us. The guys believe that our presence had more political than military significance. But we just did our job and didn't get into strategy."

Ukraine does in fact seem to be running out of trained recruits with some of those recently deployed having received only 3 weeks training....and reportedly some of the new Marines can't even swim!

But its not just Ukraine that is suffering.

BBC Russian recently spoke to some Russian troops who are defending the riverbank in that area. They said it was "suicide" for their soldiers to move there, saying they had lost many men in the fight and that they cannot dislodge the Ukrainians from their foothold.

It sounds like a living hell for both sides.
But it does seem Ukraine is running out of manpower whilst Russia continues sending thousands upon thousands of 'expendable' ex-convicts and press-ganged conscripts.

How long can Ukraine maintain their efforts to repel the Russian invaders?

As much as I still passionately support Ukraine in its fight for survival and independence I seriously wonder how they can continue their fight in the long term without Western/NATO manpower being actively involved on the ground and at the frontline.....and that is something I even more passionately do not want to see.

I think any spring offensive next year by either side could be crucial?
But hey, I'm no military expert at all, just my gut feeling.

3 December Update

Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes on the night of December 2 and 3. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched 12 Shahed drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and one Kh-59 missile from Belgorod Oblast and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 10 of the drones over Mykolaiv and Khmelnytskyi oblasts as well as the Kh-59 missile.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers

4 December Update

Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 3 to 4. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched 23 Shahed-131/136 from Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea and one Kh-59 cruise missile from occupied Kherson Oblast and stated that Ukrainian forces shot down 18 Shaheds and the Kh-59 missile.

Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Gusev confirmed on December 4 the death of Russian 14th Army Corps Deputy Commander Major General Vladimir Zavadsky in Ukraine.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on December 4.

More at URL above.

Cheers

5 December Update

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea on the night of December 4 to 5. Ukrainian media reported on December 5, citing sources in the Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), that GUR and SBU elements struck a Russian military oil terminal in Feodosia, a Nebo-M radar system near Baherove (13km west of Kerch), and a helicopter landing pad, P-18 Terek radar system, and a Baikal-1M anti-aircraft missile control system in unspecified areas of Crimea.

Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine on the night of December 4 and 5. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched 17 Shahed-136/-131 drones from Kursk Oblast and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and six S-300 missiles at targets in Ukraine and that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 10 of the drones.

Armenia appears to be effectively abstaining from participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The Spokesperson for the Armenian Parliament Chairman, Tsovinar Khachatryan, confirmed on December 5 that Armenia will not send a representative to the CSTO Parliamentary Assembly meeting in Moscow on December 19.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.

More at URL above.

Cheers